Rasmussen: Raese back up 7 over Manchin

posted at 2:06 pm on October 20, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen has its new survey taken yesterday of 750 likely voters in the West Virginia race for the US Senate seat vacated by Robert Byrd’s death (via RCP).  John Raese has a seven point lead with and without leaners over Governor Joe Manchin, despite Manchin’s attempts to paint Raese as unqualified and recast himself as a born-again Obama opponent.

The sample breakdown in this poll shows Democrats with a 13-point advantage, 48/35.  That almost exactly duplicates the 2008 partisan breakdown of turnout in the presidential election, which favored Democrats 48/34 while John McCain won the state by thirteen points.  It’s slightly more generous to Democrats than yesterday’s Fox News poll, which gave Democrats an eleven-point advantage in a smaller sample.

Raese wins 48/41 without leaners and gets to the majority with a 50/43 when leaners are included.  With leaners, Raese wins every age demographic except 18-29YOs, which he only loses by seven, 42/49.  Raese also gets 32% of Democrats and narrowly carries independents, 48/41.  Manchin gets 18% of Republicans and has a twelve-point advantage among women, 52/40, but Raese wins big with men, 61/35.

On the issues, the likelihood of Manchin closing the gap seems pretty slim.  Voters want ObamaCare repealed almost 3-1, 72/26.  Raese has a lead in trust on the health-care issue, 48/39, despite Manchin’s flip-flop to oppose ObamaCare.  Raese has a much wider gap on trust to reduce federal spending, 50/33.

The movement in other polls hasn’t shown up in Rasmussen, and given the turnout model in this sample, Rasmussen may even underestimate Raese’s eventual support in the final vote.


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How is Manchin getting 18% of Republicans? C’mon people, this ain’t rocket science. If you like him as governor, fine…keep him there. In the Senate though he’ll just be another vote for Obama.

changer1701 on October 20, 2010 at 2:10 PM

I would breathe a sigh of relief, but I never bought into those other polls.

El_Terrible on October 20, 2010 at 2:10 PM

This just proves how much the voters want him to be governor.

The Mega Independent on October 20, 2010 at 2:10 PM

With leaners, Raese wins every age demographic except 18-29YOs, which he only loses by seven, 42/49.

I don’t expect this group to be beating down the doors of the polling places to go vote for Manchin.

I hope these numbers hold up.

forest on October 20, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Rasmussen also says that 69% approve of the job Manchin is doing, yet he’s down. That survey seems to think it has to do with the fact that 69% also disapprove of the job Obama is doing. Is Obama an anchor of a sinking ship (or is it a bus?) bringing everyone else down with him?

MrX on October 20, 2010 at 2:15 PM

But I was led to believe that the Dems were closing the gaps and we would get our free lunch for 6 more years.

WoosterOh on October 20, 2010 at 2:20 PM

The irony of this race is that Manchin would being doing much better if he went all in and resigned from his office.

People like down there and they are perfectly content letting him be Governor. Its like the South used to be, when they elected local Dems for state office and Pubs to Washington.

A vote for Raese isnt a vote against Manchin. Its a vote againt Obama and a vote for keeping Manchin Charlton.

Its a perfect dynamic for Raese.

swamp_yankee on October 20, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Rasmussen also says that 69% approve of the job Manchin is doing, yet he’s down

MrX on October 20, 2010 at 2:15 PM

If you like your governor, you can keep your governor.

forest on October 20, 2010 at 2:21 PM

I like Rasmussen. He seems to run a steady operation and his sampling methods appear to reflect reality–hence should be considered as valid as can be.

ted c on October 20, 2010 at 2:29 PM

EVERY Democrat Congress-Critter will vote to do whatever Obama wants. EVERY ONE.

Yes, they will be given dispensation to cast “defensive” votes…but only if the Dems have a safe margin. Otherwise EVERY Dem is gonna do Obama’s bidding!

Justrand on October 20, 2010 at 2:30 PM

Related: Kirk back up 4% in Illinois

strictnein on October 20, 2010 at 2:32 PM

So,Manchin might be moving out of the Mansion!!

canopfor on October 20, 2010 at 2:36 PM

Just a thought. Could some WV poll respondents who might be among those who’d be expected to vote Dem (union workers and the like) actually going to vote GOP once they’re in a ballot booth and not on a phone talking to who knows whom?

WV voters hate Obama, and they are certainly smart enough to figure out that a Dem senator will be used by Obama to crush coal.

BuckeyeSam on October 20, 2010 at 2:37 PM

“That almost exactly duplicates the 2008 partisan breakdown of turnout in the presidential election”

I believe we should be comparing mid-terms to mid-terms to get the full impact of this election’s delta.

What was the turnout in 2006?

crosspatch on October 20, 2010 at 2:38 PM

If you like your governor, you can keep your governor.

forest on October 20, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Made me laugh.

stldave on October 20, 2010 at 2:40 PM

I think,this is a new AD!
==================================================

NRSC West Virginia IE Ad: Hunting Trip
October 20 2010

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNk63lL-ddg&feature=player_embedded#!

canopfor on October 20, 2010 at 2:43 PM

I still sense this race will be close. Dems do a much better job of GOTV. And there has been a seemingly significant early voting turnout here in Charleston, WV. Much higher from my vantage point than other elections. Generally, the “rooster” (local sign of the Dem Party) benefits from high turnout. But the anti-Obama sentiment around here is very heartfelt. This may just come down to the wire.

chaswv on October 20, 2010 at 2:57 PM

What was the turnout in 2006?

crosspatch on October 20, 2010 at 2:38 PM

The WV SOS publishes very limited turnout stats (not by party). Less than 42% of registered voters voted in the 2006 general….

chaswv on October 20, 2010 at 3:02 PM

My West Virginia Democrat mother voted early. She went Republican for the House, David McKinley, but did end up voting for Manchin for Senate. If she hadn’t voted early and I had another 13 days, I think I could have gotten her to go Raese.

myrenovations on October 20, 2010 at 3:12 PM

But, but PPP says the democrats are coming home to roost!!

SouthernGent on October 20, 2010 at 3:21 PM

Be nice to have party affiliation somewhere in the article. Hard to keep tract of all the players without a scorecard.

Wade on October 20, 2010 at 4:32 PM

Rasmussen: Raese back up 7 over Manchin

Ed, this headline is a little misleading as Rasmussen has had Raese up consistently (as you mention in the post). The Manchin surgelet, if it exists, is showing up only in other polls.

Missy on October 20, 2010 at 4:51 PM

I still worry about Dead Men Voting in the southern part of the state. Joes’ party seems to have a corner on that market. Better lawyer-up Mr Raese!

humdinger on October 20, 2010 at 5:20 PM

Is it me, or is it safe to say we’ve never seen a Rasmussen poll with the kind of volatility we are seeing there this month. He’s all over the place.

Electorate’s don’t change like this, do they?

Jaibones on October 20, 2010 at 7:57 PM

Jaibones, my recollection ( not checked) is that Rasmussen has stayed fairly consistent over the last few wks. The polls that have shown Manchin with a lead have been private polls – ie, I’ve never heard of them before. Guess which polls I trust more?
Still… chickens, hatch, yadayadayada.

humdinger on October 20, 2010 at 9:21 PM