Gallup: About that Democratic comeback …

posted at 11:36 am on October 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats have started spinning that they have a big comeback in the works when voters go to the polls two weeks from today.  If so, that seems to have escaped the notice of Gallup, which sees almost no movement in the past two weeks in either registered voter preferences or their likely voter turnout model.  In both cases, the GOP lead is exactly what it has been — and besides, it ignores a major component of modern elections:

Gallup’s tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds Republicans leading Democrats by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%, and by 11- and 17-point margins among likely voters, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied. …

If the elections were held today and roughly 40% of voters turned out — a rate typical in recent years — Gallup’s Oct. 7-17 polling suggests Republicans would win 56% of the vote — 8 points greater than their support from registered voters, and 17 points ahead of Democrats, at 39%. If turnout is significantly higher, Republicans would receive 53% of the vote (a 5-point improvement over their registered-voter figure), and the Democrats, 42%.

The likely voter estimates at both turnout levels have been consistent over the past three weeks.

In other words, there has been no great Democratic comeback.  Their base will probably turn out well.  Democrats make up around 35% of the population, and getting 42% of the vote in a high-turnout model already presupposes a good base activation.

But that’s simply not enough to win the midterms, something that Republicans discovered the hard way in 2006 and 2008.  National elections are won in the middle, and this year, independents are both motivated and breaking hard to the GOP.  That comes in part from disillusion caused by the radical nature of the Democratic agenda the past two years, the failure of Democrats to address the economic problems in the US (especially jobs), and the almost-total focus from Republicans on fiscal restraint and government overreach.  That message wins the middle, as Democrats should know, since they campaigned on the exact same agenda in the 2006 midterms, as well as scandals that had rocked the GOP.

Gallup notes that voting patterns have shifted in the last two weeks prior to previous midterms, but in one sense, it may already be too late.  Early voting has become a major factor in elections, with some voters casting ballots as early as two weeks ago.  By the time Democrats manage to build any momentum at all, they will have missed a substantial number of voters who have already made their choice.  They may have already missed their window for engagement.


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“D’oh”

jake-the-goose on October 19, 2010 at 11:37 AM

Very funny photo and caption.

Lourdes on October 19, 2010 at 11:38 AM

“Oh…Never mind.”

AubieJon on October 19, 2010 at 11:41 AM

is that Rosannah Rosannah Dannah?

ted c on October 19, 2010 at 11:41 AM

New AOSHQ troll “Greg” hardest hit.

A Balrog of Morgoth on October 19, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Nope, Ted. Emily Latella.

kingsjester on October 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM

The MFM meme/wish is now that Republicans, once in congressional power, will be in a no-win situation of “compromise” (lose the purity vote) and “purity” (lose the compromise vote) and will LOSE BIG in 2012. That’s the meme. They will be running with it for the next two years.

The Mega Independent on October 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Hilarious photo caption — vote best evah.

maverick muse on October 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM

“Somewhare Over the Rainbow…….pigs still fly.
……..Thats where Ba’rock Obama’s pol-o-cies will Die”

SayNo2-O on October 19, 2010 at 11:44 AM

They will comeback…comeback and shine our shoes…like a beaten dog they will come back with their tails between their legs…

right2bright on October 19, 2010 at 11:44 AM

I shudder to think of the dirt these folks are going to try to spread. They are trying to link Col. West to a criminal biker gang. It’s not like what they say has to be truthful.

Cindy Munford on October 19, 2010 at 11:46 AM

I just don’t get the liberal commie mentality. To me, it violates simple human behavior truths.

1. paying people to be useless and stupid will create more.

2. Taking away peoples hard earned money and giving it to
institutional loafers kills motivation to make more cash.

3. Government is an expense to the economy.

saiga on October 19, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Victory disease….a great way to keep a lazy man home.

Limerick on October 19, 2010 at 11:47 AM

We still have the momentum.

Unfortunately, we still have a bunch of weak candidates making races closer then they should be.

swamp_yankee on October 19, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Emily Litella: What’s all this fuss I’ve been hearing about the 1976 presidential erection? Now, I know they erected a monument for Mr. Lincoln and President Washington, but that’s because they’re DEAD! Hopefully, the 1976 President won’t be DEAD! So he won’t NEED an erection! If Americans are going to spend money to erect anything, why don’t we tear down those nasty slums and erect luxury high rises for poor people and senior citizens! Not for presidents who can afford to pay for their OWN erections!

Chevy Chase: Miss Litella –

Emily Litella: I can’t believe the way things are turning out in this country — what?

Chevy Chase: I’m sorry. That’s election. The editorial was about the presidential election, not the presidential erection. Election.

Emily Litella: Oh, that’s very different.

Chevy Chase: Yes.

Emily Litella: [smiling] Never mind.

Doughboy on October 19, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Hilarious photo caption — vote best evah.

maverick muse on October 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM

The Dems have always been in favor of “Fwee Ewections”

SayNo2-O on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

I’m not to concerned with a DemComm comeback in the opinion polls.

What I AM concerned with is the vast machine they have in place to steal close elections.

There will be many races that are very close, that are in traditional DemComm strongholds. If those races are close, I fully expect them to be stolen.

I think there will be an unprecedented number of contested elections, where the Republican leads on election night, that the DemComms will subsequently try to steal.

IronDioPriest on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

sorry i di’nt get the Emily Littella reference. That’s a tad before my SNL watching days.

ted c on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Two weeks until we put our boots on their necks. I wish election day was a Friday or Saturday so I could stay up late to celebrate as the media weeps on national television.

JammieWearingFool on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

The Dems might have a big movement coming considering the number of people they have managed to illegally register to vote. My guess is that Republicans are going to need to win by at least 5 points in order to remain out of “cheating range” of the Democrats.

Remember 3 out of 4 dead people who vote, vote Democrat.

crosspatch on October 19, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Rosanana Rosana Dana Rosana Dana Rosana……………

never mind……………………………..

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 11:51 AM

Two weeks until we put our boots on their necks. I wish election day was a Friday or Saturday so I could stay up late to celebrate as the media weeps on national television.

JammieWearingFool on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

November 3rd Should be a National Holiday.

SayNo2-O on October 19, 2010 at 11:52 AM

IronDioPriest on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Can’t steal if it isn’t close, but all this in-the-bag talk just might make races close.

Limerick on October 19, 2010 at 11:52 AM

Democrats have started spinning that they have a big comeback in the works when voters go to the polls two weeks from today.

I’m so confused.

I thought voters were too stupid and scared to get out to vote – or those who do make the brave move to venture out to vote will be voting for the wrong party.

tru2tx on October 19, 2010 at 11:53 AM

That comes in part from disillusion caused by the radical nature of the Democratic agenda the past two years, the failure of Democrats to address the economic problems in the US (especially jobs), and the almost-total focus from Republicans on fiscal restraint and government overreach.

Which is what Republicans need to focus on if they re-take the House. Cut taxes and spending, de-fund ObamaCare, de-regulate energy production (including EPA rule on CO2), privatize GM and Chrysler, blame Obama as the obstructionist.

1994 on steroids!

Steve Z on October 19, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Democrats have started spinning that they have a big comeback in the works when voters go to the polls two weeks from today.
=============

Sounds alot like WW2,when the Germans were caught in Stalingard!

Hopey/Changey isn’t going to allow them to surrender,
they will be slaughtered,out of Hopeys pride!!(sarc).
===========================================================

The Lost Evidence: “Stalingrad” 1 of 5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFwtwGYS84M&feature=PlayList&p=AFF45226B4199F9B&index=0&playnext=1

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM

But, that “non-partisan” poll put Manchin up by 10 points in WV last week.

Today: Raese “back” up by 3 points.

forest on October 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Rendell was just on Fox spinning about the Dems coming back. Obviously new talking point from the party of lies.

50sGuy on October 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM

“Somewhare Over the Rainbow…….pigs still fly.
……..Thats where Ba’rock Obama’s pol-o-cies will Die”

SayNo2-O on October 19, 2010 at 11:44 AM

But I still want someone to throw water on Pelosi and see if she melts.

upinak on October 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM

What’s the big deal everyone is making about political violins.

I mean, if Itzhak Stern wants to run for Congress, who am I to stop him?

JohnGalt23 on October 19, 2010 at 11:59 AM

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM

I don’t think they’ve noticed that the front line on their flanks is on the Don, not the Volga, and it’s being guarded by weak allies. Full speed ahead Democrats!

forest on October 19, 2010 at 12:03 PM

JammieWearingFool on October 19, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Yeah, but what fun would it be to go into work the next day and see the puffy eyes of the ones who lost?

BTW, heard you made it to national TV. Good on you.

upinak on October 19, 2010 at 12:04 PM

I’m so confused.

I thought voters were too stupid and scared to get out to vote – or those who do make the brave move to venture out to vote will be voting for the wrong party.

tru2tx on October 19, 2010 at 11:53 AM

tru2tx: Think Titanic,when it tears apart mid-hull,and the
stern floats,then fills up with water,and plunges
straight down,into,

Hopeys Abyss,a Political Black Hole where even Pol
itical Light can not escape!!:)
=========================================================

titanic – nearer my god to thee

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHsx1cvACkY

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 12:06 PM

Politico is saying today that 99 Democratic seats are in play. In the same article, Rothenberg is quoted as saying 91 are in play.

Emperor Norton on October 19, 2010 at 12:07 PM

We have to constanly remind people that we are not only attempting to out vote democrats, we must also out vote voter FRAUD. Remind them of Zombie(*) voters and ACORN.

* Dead people still on the roster who all seem to register democrat.

kurtzz3 on October 19, 2010 at 12:09 PM

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 11:56 AM
===================================
I don’t think they’ve noticed that the front line on their flanks is on the Don, not the Volga, and it’s being guarded by weak allies. Full speed ahead Democrats!

forest on October 19, 2010 at 12:03 PM

forest: I’m bad,I’m *Chuckling,ahem*!!!!

Hey,remember when Obama WON,all Leftys were proclaim
ing the Republican Party DEAD!!

Karma,baby!!:)

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 12:11 PM

There is no doubt that this comeback narrative is to till the soil for the fraud the Dems plan for… We have got to watch for this especially in Nevada. The candidates who really win need to prepare to fight. Coleman won but fought like the civil person he is against ruthless dishonest people and we now have Franken… We can’t let that happen again.

CCRWM on October 19, 2010 at 12:11 PM

Roseanne Roseannadanna – Smoking

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7gLJr03vNQ

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 12:14 PM

Liberals will start spouting off many things now that they are up against the wall. “We’re mounting a comeback!” is the least of my worries. These last two weeks is when the real dirt starts to fly.

The Expert Knows
http://theexpertsblog.blogspot.com

HotAirExpert on October 19, 2010 at 12:17 PM

There is going to be a Alien Progressive Intervention at
the 11TH Hour,a mircle,have ye Lefty Hope,

a Hopey/Changey Political SuperWeapon that will save the
herr Fourth Roman Temple Pillars of Perpetual Hope and
NeverEnding and Thankfully not EverLasting Change!!
(snark).

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Rush is on a roll on compromise!!

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Taking this single poll out of context is dangerous.

It definitely appears that things are not improving for Dems in the House and may in fact be worsening.

The same can not be said for the Senate and Governorships, where the Dems seem to be in far less danger on some of their “must hold” seats.

Of course, it’s possible that all the polls we’re seeing out there are still over weighting Democrats, in which case conditions have not improved all that much. This Gallup poll hints that.

Unfortunately, it’s too late in the election cycle to get a feel for whether that’s true or not. We’re going to have to wait until November 2 to find out.

Chris of Rights on October 19, 2010 at 12:25 PM

is that Rosannah Rosannah Dannah?

ted c on October 19, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Emily Latella, I believe…

Khun Joe on October 19, 2010 at 12:31 PM

I have noticed in the last few days a slight movement back towards Democrat candidates for Senator and Governor. This is something that occurs in most election cycles, probably due to last minute advertising and triage on the closer races by the losing party.

In particular, I am getting very worried about Ken Buck in Colorado and Dino Rossi in Washington state although I am still predicting their wins on my blog. I am also quite worried about Rick Scott in Florida. All of these races are now no better than toss-ups and we will need a huge Republican turnout to win these seats.

RUDYJ on October 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM

The MFM meme/wish is now that Republicans, once in congressional power, will be in a no-win situation of “compromise” (lose the purity vote) and “purity” (lose the compromise vote) and will LOSE BIG in 2012. That’s the meme. They will be running with it for the next two years.

The Mega Independent on October 19, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Bank on it.

On Mondays , Wednesdays & Fridays the lede in every story both print and broadcast will be:

“Those tyrannical Republicans are engaging in their own radical overreach just as the Dems did, & are mistaking their Congressional victory based on economic issues for permission to unilaterally impose the entire conservative agenda without convincing the moderate middle – without whom they could never have gained the majority – first.”

But on Sundays, Tuesdays & Thursdays it will be:

“The conservative base feel like they’ve been stabbed in the back by the hack, corrupt go-along to get along Wascawy Estabewishment Wepublicans who’re ignoring the extreme social agenda they bamboozled gullible right wingers into voting for”

And on Saturdays, their meme will be whichever of the above two conflicting scenarios is currently gaining more traction at dividing & conquering Republicans. Discrediting the R Team any way they can, even if the have to completely contradict themselves on alternate days, is the primary career objective for most US journalists, after all.

Republicans will be allowed to do no right, just as their Golden Boy Obama has been allowed to do no wrong other than not dumbing down his brilliant message far enough to cater to the ignorant masses.

All the tsk-tsking we’re hearing from the MSM now about how the faithless, fickle middle is an unrealistic, ungovernable horde of unappreciative idiots who’re just ‘not thinking clearly’ by not blindly supporting Obama & Congress’ radlib extremism will evaporate and they will once again become lauded as noble mavericks serving as the conscience of the nation saving us all from the draconian radcon Republican agenda.

leilani on October 19, 2010 at 12:44 PM

The dead will vote again.

Highplains on October 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

But I still want someone to throw water on Pelosi and see if she melts.

upinak on October 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM

That would be sweet! “Who would have thought that a good little girl like you could destroy all my beautiful wickedness?…”

Mary in LA on October 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

“LEAVE GILDA RADNER ALONE!!!

Shy Guy on October 19, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Better Headline: Gallup gives Dems the trots.

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on October 19, 2010 at 1:57 PM

“Yes waiter, I’ll have a double order of Democrat Comeback, and smother it in Fail Sauce please”.

44Magnum on October 19, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Barry’s hut brother unavailable for comment.

BHO Jonestown on October 19, 2010 at 2:11 PM

Seems like everything that comes out of the Democrats’ mouths lately has been eminently shovel-ready.

paul1149 on October 19, 2010 at 3:11 PM

SNL really was funny…I miss Emily Litella and her never minds….

redwhiteblue on October 19, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Emily Litella made us laugh during the dismal days of Jimmy Carter. Thanks for bringing her around again to help us laugh at the even more dismal days of B’rack O’bama.

redwhiteblue on October 19, 2010 at 4:00 PM

But I still want someone to throw water on Pelosi and see if she melts.

upinak on October 19, 2010 at 11:57 AM

I just want my male dogs to pee on her leg, if she melts, so much the better!

Mini-14 on October 19, 2010 at 5:00 PM

Seems like everything that comes out of the Democrats’ mouths lately has been eminently shovel-ready.

paul1149 on October 19, 2010 at 3:11 PM

Just like what comes out the other end of my dogs :D

Mini-14 on October 19, 2010 at 5:02 PM

Something I have said over and over again, don’t get too damned over confident. As long as there voting machines, and as long as there are graveyards, the democrats have a chance. Also, let us not start to display the same vidictive arrogance that the dems did after 2006. The electorate can be lost again. Republicans lost me, I’m now an independent. Govern, don’t dictate.

georgeofthedesert on October 20, 2010 at 11:06 AM