Fox News poll shows Raese edging Manchin by 3

posted at 2:15 pm on October 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

After a bad couple of weeks, Republicans worried that Joe Manchin might have overtaken John Raese in the race to replace the late Robert Byrd in the US Senate.  A new Fox News poll shows that Manchin made up ground on Raese, but the Republican still holds a narrow lead over the Democrat in West Virginia.  Barack Obama’s agenda worries voters more than a casting call for a political ad, apparently:

Republican John Raese still leads Democrat Joe Manchin in West Virginia’s rough and rowdy Senate race despite a pair of controversial television ads, according to the latest Fox News state poll.

Raese’s lead over Manchin shrank two points from Oct. 2, but his 48 percent to 45 percent lead over the popular second-term governor is still cause for concern among Democrats.

Raese’s lead comes after a bruising two weeks in which an ad agency hired by the National Republican Senatorial Committee got busted looking for “hicky” actors to play parts in an anti-Manchin ad and Manchin produced an ad in which he shot a hole through a copy of President Obama’s global warming legislation with a deer rifle.

The poll of likely voters shows why Manchin might be moved to take more shots at the Obama agenda. Obama’s job approval in the state dropped two points to 27 percent. Sixty two percent of voters said that Obama’s polices had hurt the state’s economy – up two points from Oct. 2 — and 51 percent thought the president’s agenda had hurt their personal finances.

The poll sample shows a nearly 12-point advantage for Democrats, 48.2% to 36.8%.  In 2008, John McCain won the state by thirteen points while Democrats turned out 14 points higher than Republicans, 48/34, according to CNN’s exit polling.  Obama only won 69% of the Democratic votes in that state at the height of his popularity, with 28% going to McCain.  The sample advantage here may be overstating Democratic turnout, but it may not matter a whole lot either way.

That’s because Obama is particularly unpopular in West Virginia.  Overall, his approval rating is 27/63, about as low as it will be in any state this year.  Fifty-nine percent plan to cast their vote in this election as a rebuke to Obama’s policies, including 60% of independents and more than a third of Democrats, at 36%.  Meanwhile, 76% of likely voters polled are either dissatisfied or angry about the way the federal government is working, and 62% believe Obama administration policies have hurt West Virginia.  Those are not numbers that will bring voters out in force for Manchin and an additional vote for the Senate Democratic caucus.

Raese seems to have weathered the hicky storm, and Manchin’s boost from shooting a hole through a copy of the cap-and-trade bill has failed to materialize.  This election will be a referendum on the Democratic agenda, and since West Virginians can keep Manchin as governor while sending a Republican to stymie the Obama agenda in Washington, the vote will likely swing to the “best of both worlds” scenario.

Update: McCain won by 13, not 7.  When I read it the first time, I could have sworn it read 53/46, but it was 56/43.  Thanks to Eric P for the correction.


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That’s because Obama is particularly unpopular in West Virginia.

Naw. This must just be because there is “fear” and “tribal tendencies” there in WV….Surely, those in WV are irrational.//

ted c on October 19, 2010 at 2:17 PM

Oh look, another candidate not named O’Donnell beating a Democrat. Any troll care to comment?

A Balrog of Morgoth on October 19, 2010 at 2:21 PM

There will be voters who think they’re backing Manchin now but will get to the booth, have to make the final decision, and won’t want to risk Manchin becoming a vote for Obama.

amerpundit on October 19, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Gotta wonder who the 27% is made up of. Not many black voters in W.VA so that doesn’t explain it. So where are these 1/4 people who support the destruction of their state’s economy by supporting Obama?

angryed on October 19, 2010 at 2:30 PM

I think in the end, people need to ask themselves….is there such a thing as a moderate, or conservative Democrat?

People thought Blanch Lincoln was. Ben Nelson, and others. How did that work out? In the end, they towed the party line. For whatever reason, they abandoned, what they said were their independent thoughts, and ideology, so they could ride the percieved high they’d get by passing unpopular policies.

Voting Democrat in any form, assures the policies will continue to pass, and hurt us even more. The idea here is not to reform, but to destroy, and rebuild into God only knows.

capejasmine on October 19, 2010 at 2:30 PM

and Manchin’s boost from shooting a hole through a copy of the cap-and-trade bill has failed to materialize

.

That ad might actually hurt him. The liberal base in WV is relatively small, but actually firing a bullet through the Obama agenda? Can’t be good for turnout. They have a choice between the rifleman who has promised to go fight the Obama Administration, and the real Republican. I think there may be some no-shows.

forest on October 19, 2010 at 2:32 PM

The poll sample shows a nearly 12-point advantage for Democrats, 36.8% to 48.2%.

What? Do you mean 48.2% to 36.8% ?

Luka on October 19, 2010 at 2:33 PM

So where are these 1/4 people who support the destruction of their state’s economy by supporting Obama?

angryed on October 19, 2010 at 2:30 PM

Those are Byrd’s cousins.

BacaDog on October 19, 2010 at 2:34 PM

He would be really popular if he changed parties.

Democrats are about as popular as herpes these days.

NoDonkey on October 19, 2010 at 2:35 PM

What? Do you mean 48.2% to 36.8% ?

Luka on October 19, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Yes. I fixed it. Thanks!

Ed Morrissey on October 19, 2010 at 2:37 PM

I voted for Obamacare before I voted against it!
Get that guy a pair of John Kerry flip flops
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/graphics/kerry_flip_flops_serious.jpg

The Expert Knows
http://theexpersblog.blogspot.com

HotAirExpert on October 19, 2010 at 2:39 PM

I think in the end, people need to ask themselves….is there such a thing as a moderate, or conservative Democrat?

capejasmine on October 19, 2010 at 2:30 PM

There aren’t many left. Certainly not in the federal government. I don’t care what a Democrat says he or she believes or stands for. When push comes to shove, if you vote with Pelosi more than 90% of the time, you’re not a moderate.

Doughboy on October 19, 2010 at 2:41 PM

That’s because Obama is particularly unpopular in West Virginia.

Racists!!!!!!!

What else could it be?

iurockhead on October 19, 2010 at 2:45 PM

PPP has Sestak 1 point ahead of Toomey… Don’t think so.

sandee on October 19, 2010 at 2:45 PM

By 3,keep da faith,and,

Toto -Hold the Line

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f-cEM1l7Ks

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 2:55 PM

ElectionGuide – West Virginia

http://www.congress.org/election/guide/wv

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 2:56 PM

PPP has Sestak 1 point ahead of Toomey… Don’t think so.

Bogus. Look at the internals.

Bat Chain Puller on October 19, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Wow, even though Raese’s wife “lives in West Palm Beach, Florida”? That’s where Mika said she “lived”. And Scarborough. And fat Ed and Tingles said she lived there. Then Maddow and Olbermann said guess where HIS FAMILY lives, voters?

Marcus on October 19, 2010 at 2:58 PM

All Latest Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 2:58 PM

Looks like WVs are bitterly clinging to their jobs. Someone should do a poll in WV on whether Obama is anti-business or is serious about job creation.

paul1149 on October 19, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Buck +1. Another poll has Bennett +1.

This sucks. We should be crushing Dems everywhere.

swamp_yankee on October 19, 2010 at 4:08 PM

I caught a little of the WV debate on C-Span the other evening, and Raese is mighty impressive. He would be an excellent addition to the Senate.

onlineanalyst on October 19, 2010 at 4:44 PM

C’mon Raese! Run this ad! It’s a Joe Killer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzt2VLWpFVQ

humdinger on October 19, 2010 at 5:14 PM

Manchin’s boost from shooting a hole through a copy of the cap-and-trade bill has failed to materialize.

Color me relieved. That ad was dynamite. If it hadn’t been for “Blue Dogs” like Stupak proving to us that they couldn’t be trusted to keep their word and split with the party when it really mattered, I would have found the ad convincing. Hopefully other voters weren’t fooled.

Caiwyn on October 20, 2010 at 11:02 AM