CBS: A third of 2008 Obama voters won’t vote Democrat in 2010

posted at 12:55 pm on October 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

If anyone wonders why Democrats seem dispirited in 2010, CBS uses 2008 to explain it.  In their latest survey, CBS asked voters who backed Obama in 2008 whether they planned to vote for Democrats in the midterms.  Only two-thirds would commit to it, and only 42% of independents:

CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante reports that, for the White House, keeping control of the House and Senate is all about getting Democrats and Independents who voted for the president in 2008 back to the polls, and on that score, the latest poll numbers show Mr. Obama hasn’t closed the sale.

Only two-thirds of Obama voters in 2008 (67 percent) say they’ll vote for one of his fellow Democrats in 2010. Eight percent of those voters say they will vote Republican this year, and 21 percent say it depends.

The biggest erosion of support is among independents; just 42 percent of Obama’s 2008 independent voters say they’ll support a Democrat this year. Twelve percent say they’ll vote for a Republican, and 38 percent were still undecided.

By the way, these are 2008 Obama voters who are likely to vote this year, not the larger sample of all 2008 Obama voters.  The overall survey polled 1077 2008 Obama voters, but CBS doesn’t say how many of those turned out to be likely to vote in this year’s midterms.  Also, this was an online survey (not the same thing as a website poll), which is generally considered somewhat less reliable than phone surveys.

Even with those caveats, the breakouts are intriguing, especially among independents.  No Republicans who crossed party lines in 2008 were apparently included in this survey, but the unaffiliated voters show just how much ground Obama has lost.  Twelve percent of indie Obama voters in 2008 are committed to voting Republican in the midterms, and 38% are still mulling that option.  Potentially losing 58% of the independents that backed Obama is a disaster, especially added to independents overall who are likely to vote in this cycle.

Why are they leaving?  A near-majority of independent Obama voters declare themselves “dissatisfied” with Washington after two years of full Democratic control, and another 20% describe themselves as “angry.”  None declare themselves “enthusiastic,” and only 30% “satisfied.”  Those are not turnout numbers.  If Democrats are lucky, the 69% who are dissatisfied or angry will just stay home, but it’s a pretty sure bet that some of them will be voting Republican.

Nor is that the only problem on that question.  Among Democrats who voted for Obama, 43% pronounce themselves “dissatisfied” and another 10% “angry” about Washington in the Hopenchange era.  Those also indicate a turnout problem in two weeks for Democrats.

On Obama himself, the pool of likely 2008 Obama voters give him an approval rating of 82/18, which sounds great, except that it shows an erosion among Obama’s base, not just in the general electorate.  They don’t give Obama or Democrats much credit for “change” either; only 16% think Obama has brought “a lot” of change, with 51% saying “some” and 32% not much or none at all.  Those numbers go to 9/43/48 among independents.

Disillusion is a powerful force in politics, and if this survey is at all accurate, we will be able to measure that force in two weeks.


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If it’s a CBS poll it really must be twice as bad.

BacaDog on October 19, 2010 at 12:58 PM

On Obama himself, the pool of likely 2008 Obama voters give him an approval rating of 82/18, which sounds great, except that it shows an erosion among Obama’s base, not just in the general electorate.

Not enough of an erosion, though. Many in his Democrat base would still support him even if he committed a felony crime in office, like his Democrat predecessor Bill Clinton did.

Remember, nearly 10 years out of office Clintoon currently has a 65% favorability rating. For what, I will never know.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Fool me once…

Bruno Strozek on October 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

When the tide goes out after Nov. 2nd it’ll be taking a lot of Dems with it….hopefully 200 or so.

PatriotRider on October 19, 2010 at 1:01 PM

If it’s a CBS poll it really must be twice as bad.

BacaDog on October 19, 2010 at 12:58 PM

It’s not even a “poll”-it’s an online survey. Zogby also does those, sometimes with hilarious results.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Remember, nearly 10 years out of office Clintoon currently has a 65% favorability rating. For what, I will never know.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2010 at 1:00 PM

I’ll make a guess that it’s because of his carefully cultivated “roguish bad boy” image. I dare say that a lot of folks would like to do the stuff he did and get away with it, as he did.

Mary in LA on October 19, 2010 at 1:03 PM

It is interesting how people respond to being lied to by politicians.

Vashta.Nerada on October 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM

Most of the disillusioned ones who voted for Obama in 2008 and are not voting Democratic in 2010 are still willing to believe that the problem isn’t Obama; it’s Congress — which is simply a way to remain in denial that you threw your 2008 vote away for another few months, until the 2011-12 congressional session begins.

Obama can still win that group back because they still want to believe he was simply overwhelmed by Harry, Nancy and the other Democratic leaders and was steered down the wrong path. They don’t want to believe Obama was a willing accomplice in guiding the legislation of the past two years, and are hoping he’ll do some Clintonesque triangulation in 2011. Odds are he and the big media outlets will claim he’s doing that while he actually does squat to move towards the center, and then the question will be if the moderate swing voters are willing to fall for pro-Obama spin for the second time in three years.

jon1979 on October 19, 2010 at 1:04 PM

But this is only happening because we’re all too stupid to fully grasp Obama’s brilliance, right??

diditagain on October 19, 2010 at 1:05 PM

That generation sure went fast.

NoDonkey on October 19, 2010 at 1:06 PM

Count it!

darwin on October 19, 2010 at 1:06 PM

As I have been hearing on Rush, a number of establishment types in our party are starting to talk compromise with the dems. We have to strike compromise, surrender and retreat from our collective minds and keep these dispirited dems as dispirited, desperate and despondent as we can. My Rosary beads are wearing thin but not as thin as Obama’s support appears to be.

fourdeucer on October 19, 2010 at 1:07 PM

Thats because,this didn`t happen!
=====================================

Obama Is Going To Pay For My Gas And Mortgage!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
=====================================
=====================================

And,the HilRodBots,knew,what was in store!

The sky will open,celestrial choirs will be singing….

Hillary Mocks Obama

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pPV1yd7sQg

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM

He’s brought plenty of change. My pocket jingles with it. Unlike those nice quiet Yuppie food stamps I enjoyed back in the Bush era.

Laura Curtis on October 19, 2010 at 1:10 PM

fourdeucer on October 19, 2010 at 1:07 PM

that’s all we need, snowe, collins, mccain and grahamnesty doing their best to ruin what the folks have started…..

cmsinaz on October 19, 2010 at 1:10 PM

It’s surely true that many of these voters will not vote for Rand Paul this year because some anonymous gal says that he tied her up back in 1982…*eyeroll* surely that evidence proves that present disillusionment cannot overcome the sins of the past.

/Dave Throckmorton Ballscratch Rywall

ted c on October 19, 2010 at 1:10 PM

Mr Bond, I can assure you, the voters will be punished for their intransigence. Salut!

keep the change on October 19, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Two weeks from today. Don’t take anything for granted. The country and the free world depend on it.

They don’t give Obama or Democrats much credit for “change” either

Lots of change, just not the good kind…

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Remember, nearly 10 years out of office Clintoon currently has a 65% favorability rating. For what, I will never know.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2010 at 1:00 PM

I will remind you that Sick Willie never won 50% of the vote.

This hogwash of Clinton being some kind of rockstar is another lie of the MFM. How many candidates to date that HE endorsed got re-elected? Clinton is still the kiss of death.

Lanceman on October 19, 2010 at 1:18 PM

I know a couple of these Democrats who are having severe buyer’s remorse over THE WON. One of them realized about a year ago that he was a fraud. The other one kept saying give him a chance, give him a chance. Sometime this summer, she too caved and accepted the fact she had been bamboozled by a cool slogan.

angryed on October 19, 2010 at 1:18 PM

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Just a friendly note that the quote button is really quite handy. See, like this:

Obama Is Going To Pay For My Gas And Mortgage!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI

strictnein on October 19, 2010 at 1:19 PM

Disillusion is a powerful force in politics

See McCain, John.

Rhinoboy on October 19, 2010 at 1:21 PM

Schadenfreude on October 19, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Remember, nearly 10 years out of office Clintoon currently has a 65% favorability rating. For what, I will never know.

Del Dolemonte on October 19, 2010 at 1:00 PM

The mid to late 90s were a good time in America. The founders of Amazon, ebay and Google had more to do with it than Clinton. But people associated good times with whomever is in the White House and so Clinton gets the love of the people.

Plus it was a rare time in American history where we weren’t at war with anyone (yes I know Somalia and Yugoslavia, but compared to the Cold War, Iraq, Afghanistan, that was nothing).

Clinton was the luckiest SOB ever to be president. Walked in at the right time, and walked out right before the shit hit the fan.

angryed on October 19, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Aren’t you the guy who sold me the crap sandwich in 2008?

No, I don’t think I’ll try another sandwich, thank you.

And please leave my property or I shall have to unleash the hounds.

NoDonkey on October 19, 2010 at 1:25 PM

Please don’t blow this opportunity GOP and Tea Party. Keep their feet to the fire.

Oil Can on October 19, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Obama Is Going To Pay For My Gas And Mortgage!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
=====================================

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM

thanks for that trip down memory lane :)

I wonder if that station will follow up with her after this election or the ’12 election?

cmsinaz on October 19, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Oil Can on October 19, 2010 at 1:27 PM

that means you mcain et al….

cmsinaz on October 19, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Yeah, but in Obamas grading system, 67% is a solid B+.

percysunshine on October 19, 2010 at 1:33 PM

This shows that the clueless that voted for Bammie are probably still clueless, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they are now smarter. By 2012 they may be susceptible to the progressives’ hopey-changey promises once again.

The problem is that the progressives control K-12.

slickwillie2001 on October 19, 2010 at 1:34 PM

Some of my liberal friends will not vote Dem this time around but they say it’s because of Reid and Pelosi and still give Zero a pass… maybe by next year…

CCRWM on October 19, 2010 at 1:46 PM

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHA (deep breath) HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA… Whoa I’m gonna pass out!

The Expert Knows
http://theexpertsblog.blogspot.com

HotAirExpert on October 19, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Drunk dad = wetbrain son.

BHO Jonestown on October 19, 2010 at 2:07 PM

Clinton was the luckiest SOB ever to be president. Walked in at the right time, and walked out right before the shit hit the fan.

angryed on October 19, 2010 at 1:23 PM

I agree. I didn’t trust him the moment I saw him. Smooth talking hucksters always leave me on guard.

Yeah, but in Obamas grading system, 67% is a solid B+.

percysunshine on October 19, 2010 at 1:33 PM

One of my engineering physics classes had a curve like that. The C range started at 54%. Let’s say I passed with a C+

Badger40 on October 19, 2010 at 2:17 PM

Where have all the supporters gone, long time passing, where have all the supporters gone, long time ago…gone to tea parties everyone…when will the ever learn, when will theyyyy ever learn.

right2bright on October 19, 2010 at 2:17 PM

The best we can hope in defeating Obama, is the non vote…guilt will prevent people from voting “against” him.
Not voting is not racist…voting for the “other” guy is racist.

right2bright on October 19, 2010 at 2:19 PM

It should be clear to anyone with half a brain that obama is a socialist, and socialism is juxtopposed to the American way of self reliance and personal responsibility. His only hope is to expand the dola and create millions more ignorant welfare dependents that will vote their paymaster, and that is exactly what he is trying to do.

The “New America” would become a place few patriotic traditional Americans would care to live, which would likely be OK with Obama. After all, there is no place in obamas “New America” for common sence and a realistic assessment of the realities of human nature and wealth creation through individual effort and return.

saiga on October 19, 2010 at 2:37 PM

The fallen third of heaven’s hosts. It’s all their fault, losing faith in Obama’s HopeyChangy meant to last forever.

maverick muse on October 19, 2010 at 4:14 PM

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM
============
thanks for that trip down memory lane :)

I wonder if that station will follow up with her after this election or the ’12 election?

cmsinaz on October 19, 2010 at 1:30 PM

cmsinaz:That would be interesting,ya got me there!!:)

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 4:14 PM

And please leave my property or I shall have to unleash the hounds.

NoDonkey on October 19, 2010 at 1:25 PM

Baskerville!

maverick muse on October 19, 2010 at 4:16 PM

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Obama Is Going To Pay For My Gas And Mortgage!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI

strictnein on October 19, 2010 at 1:19 PM

strictnein: Thanks for the tip:)

canopfor on October 19, 2010 at 4:18 PM

Disillusion is a powerful force in politics, and if this survey is at all accurate, we will be able to measure that force in two weeks.

There is nothing so pathetic as a disillusioned fan, and also nothing quite so dangerous.
For many of his most committed and devoted followers, Obama was more symbol than anything else. For them he wasn’t elected to do anything, he was elected to be something. He was the symbol of their final redemption from the self-inflicted stain of oppression and racism that they learned in public school and carried around with them like an albatross. Obama in the White House was proof positive that America was not the vile racist society that they’d been taught. Like Michelle, they finally could be proud to be American.
Obama for his part, made the fatal error of mistaking all this symbolic adoration for real agreement with his Third World Socialist dreams. He reacted with anger and petulant resentment when the very people who cheered him on began to desert him when he attempted to exercise the franchise he thought they’d granted him. In fact, he still doesn’t get it!
The Tea Party frustrates and confuses him because they don’t act like fans whose role is mainly a loud adoring passivity, but like citizens whose role is active and decisive. Their very existence as a real voice of America is beyond his ability to comprehend and his reaction to the resounding rebuke coming in just two short weeks will reveal him to a degree that even he may not be prepared for. He may pause and reassess, like Clinton, or he may lash out in some way. Watch carefully and take notes!

Lew on October 19, 2010 at 9:50 PM