Gallup: Next unemployment report will be worse

posted at 2:15 pm on October 18, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Gallup’s mid-month report on national unemployment gives a mixed outlook on joblessness, which winds up being mainly negative.  The surge in unemployment they found in September continued into October, but the number of long-term unemployed dropped slightly, as did part-time workers looking for full-time employment.  They expect a bigger number for the jobless rate on November 5th from the Department of Labor, perhaps into double digits:

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is at 10.0% in mid-October — essentially the same as the 10.1% at the end of September but up sharply from 9.4% in mid-September and 9.3% at the end of August. This mid-month measurement confirms the late September surge in joblessness that should be reflected by the government’s Nov. 5 unemployment report. …

The decline in part-time workers wanting full-time work has led to a situation in which underemployment is declining even as unemployment is increasing. The 18.6% mid-October underemployment figure (the sum of the 10.0% unemployed and the 8.6% employed part time but wanting full-time work) is down slightly from 18.8% at the end of September and is the same as the reading in the middle of last month. …

In this regard, Gallup modeling suggests the government’s unemployment rate report for October will be in the 9.7% to 9.9% range when it is released Nov. 5. The government’s last report showed the U.S. unemployment rate at 9.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, as Gallup anticipated. In addition to seasonal adjustments, the official unemployment rate is likely to be held down by a continued exodus of people from the workforce. It is easy for potential workers to become discouraged when the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 9% through the end of 2011.

Even the good news about the decline of underemployment is suspect, Gallup notes.  Because the topline unemployment figures keep rising, it appears that the decrease isn’t coming from part-timers finding full-time jobs.  Instead, they could be losing their jobs and dropping out of the workforce figures.

This will have little impact on the upcoming elections, of course, and for a couple of reasons.  First, the Gallup poll won’t get a whole lot of attention, even though it has shown to be a fairly reasonable indicator of overall results.  Second, the kind of unemployment the poll projects is close enough to already-known results to give it only a limited impact on midterm races and perceptions of the Obama administration’s economic policies.  Moving back to double digits might have more impact on electorate psychology, but that expectation may already be baked into the midterm cake.  And, of course, the actual DoL report won’t come out until three day after the election anyway.

Still, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the Gallup indicators as we move closer to the holiday season.  Gallup does not adjust figures for seasonal demand, which means that we should see an increase in employment soon if retailers expect to see a decent Christmas shopping season.  Some are predicting a mildly better season this year in both spending and employment:

Retailers are expected to add between 550,000 and 650,000 jobs nationally this holiday season, according to a forecast from the national outplacement firmChallenger, Gray and Christmas.

That’s more than the 501,400 added last year, but it’s still well below the 720,800 added in 2007, just as the recession was beginning.

Most of that will come at large retailers, though.  Small businesses won’t be hiring, but may expand hours for existing staff instead:

Much of the holiday hiring is taking place at national chains including Macy’sKohl’s and Toys R Us. Some smaller local retailers say they won’t be adding any more workers but could give current employees more hours.

That follows from better-than-expected retail numbers from September, announced last week.  It’s not recovery levels, but it’s better than the direction those indicators had been heading over most of the year.


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Can’t afford a hair straightener, but got a cell phone!

fossten on October 18, 2010 at 2:17 PM

And, of course, the actual DoL report won’t come out until three day after the election anyway.

That works out great for Obama. The GOP retakes the House and possibly the Senate and 3 days later he can start blaming the higher unemployment numbers on them. Oh sure, the Democrats will still be in control of Congress til January, but since when did common sense ever impact the man’s thought process?

Doughboy on October 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM

As Expected!!(sarc)

canopfor on October 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM

We have three of the biggest idiots in American history, dragging anchor.

Obama, Pelosi and Reid are the three prongs in the anchor.

Two of these worthless pieces of garbage will be gone after November.

An anchor with only one brong, cannot anchor the ship.

NoDonkey on October 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM

Do polls respond to the actual unemployment or the reported unemployment rate? It makes a much greater impact when you or a family member is out of work than just seeing a small change in a number that is reported in the news. With unemployment running around 10%, everyone knows multiple hard-working people who lost their job.

pedestrian on October 18, 2010 at 2:20 PM

Unexpectedly?

crazy_legs on October 18, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Everybody knows that companies don’t hire near

New Year’s Day
MLK Day
Valentines Day
St, Patrick’s Day
Arbor Day
Easter
Cinco de Mayo
Flag Day
Independence Day
Bastille Day
Labor Day
National Blueberry Popsicle Month

Halloween

mankai on October 18, 2010 at 2:21 PM

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast

http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

canopfor on October 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM

OT but worth the “funny”.
http://michellemalkin.com/2010/10/18/biden-booed-in-philly-shunned-in-wisconsin/

sicoit on October 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM

If you have rising unemployment going into the 4th quarter, you aren’t going to have a 4th quarter. It’s that simple, really. Now is the time employers are hiring for the holidays. If that isn’t happening …

lorien1973 on October 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Obama’s America

Inanemergencydial on October 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM

That works out great for Obama. The GOP retakes the House and possibly the Senate and 3 days later he can start blaming the higher unemployment numbers on them. Oh sure, the Democrats will still be in control of Congress til January, but since when did common sense ever impact the man’s thought process?

Doughboy on October 18, 2010 at 2:18 PM

My point as well. The right will take back congress and get creamed in the propaganda wars as all further problems are blamed on them before they have a chance to enact any meaningful changes (should they be smart enough to even try…).

WitchDoctor on October 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM

sicoit on October 18, 2010 at 2:22 PM

I don’t think the baseball fan demographic is where Democrats want to make their stand.

Getting bashed constantly for being rich, white and family oriented as people with enough disposable income and desire to watch playoff baseball, generally would be.

NoDonkey on October 18, 2010 at 2:29 PM

WitchDoctor on October 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM

Disagree, the big target in 2012 will be Obama.

If things continue to decline, he will not have the remotest chance of being re-elected.

Meaning no coat tails for Democrats.

The Republicans will pass legislation – if Barry vetoes it, the voters will know who to blame.

NoDonkey on October 18, 2010 at 2:31 PM

If you have rising unemployment going into the 4th quarter, you aren’t going to have a 4th quarter. It’s that simple, really. Now is the time employers are hiring for the holidays. If that isn’t happening …

lorien1973 on October 18, 2010 at 2:23 PM

And…. even if the big retailers are hiring the jobs will be short lived. Nice for a few weeks for people desperate to work, but it’s only a short reprieve. Kinda like that Census thingy.

Don’t worry, folks. For some their problems are behind them:

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_DawJTCHuL3c/TLxOQoVqH_I/AAAAAAAAIF0/QHTes1g3qLI/histepping_thumb%5B2%5D.jpg?imgmax=800

Cody1991 on October 18, 2010 at 2:32 PM

My point as well. The right will take back congress and get creamed in the propaganda wars as all further problems are blamed on them before they have a chance to enact any meaningful changes (should they be smart enough to even try…).

WitchDoctor on October 18, 2010 at 2:24 PM

That’s the strategery of the Dems and the media(I know, I’m being redundant). But it’s not gonna work. If the GOP majority in the House continuously tries to cut spending, keep taxes low, repeal Obamacare, expand domestic drilling, and end TARP, and are thwarted every step of the way by Obama and the Senate Democrats, there’ll be hell to pay for them come 2012.

Obama’s only shot at reelection is to move to the center and co-opt key parts of the GOP agenda. And I don’t mean paying lip service like he always does. But I don’t think he has it in him to do that. He’s too rigid of an ideologue.

Doughboy on October 18, 2010 at 2:34 PM

An anchor with only one brong, cannot anchor the ship.

NoDonkey on October 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM

But tied around our necks, it can drag us to the bottom to drown.

Extrafishy on October 18, 2010 at 2:34 PM

Some guy just mention Hot Air about the
Cell Phone Thread on the Rush Limbaugh
show!!

canopfor on October 18, 2010 at 2:36 PM

Is it me, or is the redhead starting to look really p1$$ed off?

I’m almost surprised liberals aren’t suggesting legalizing prostitution nationwide in order to collect taxes, lower the unemployment rate, lower the stigma…etc, etc, etc..

Canadian Infidel on October 18, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Gallup: Next unemployment report will be worse

Does this mean that they’re actually expecting some bad news this time?

I am shocked. Shocked, I say!

UltimateBob on October 18, 2010 at 2:40 PM

Another census!

mankai on October 18, 2010 at 2:41 PM

It’s not recovery levels, but it’s better than the direction those indicators had been heading over most of the year.

IMHO it’s an uptick that is not significant. We have reached the lowest point of employment possible and still have a functioning economy at all. Occasionally it goes up for seasonal jobs or census type jobs.

My dream is that the Repubs start repealing stuff November 3, and that will ignite the business community.

PattyJ on October 18, 2010 at 2:45 PM

OK… I’ve waited for it… so here it goes..

Count it!

mankai on October 18, 2010 at 2:48 PM

My dream is that the Repubs start repealing stuff November 3, and that will ignite the business community.

PattyJ on October 18, 2010 at 2:45 PM

Well, since many of them won’t be in office until January, that might be kind of hard ;)

strictnein on October 18, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Another census!

mankai on October 18, 2010 at 2:41 PM

Maybe a Cash for Chrisrmas, Stimulus for St. Nick or Help for the Holidays pre-election surprise.

fourdeucer on October 18, 2010 at 2:50 PM

If the Democrats are able to turn any of the bad economic news on the GOP, it only means the voting public are not really serious about this whole reform and Tea Party business.

We were headed for financial difficulties in 2006 when the Democrats took over. They stepped on the gas, and once Obama got in they wasted trillions and programmed trillions more in future debt which cannot be painlessly stopped. It will literally take years to dig out of this hole.

The next President has little chance of restoring what we have learned to consider a “normal” economy (since Reagan) in his first term. If the Democrats can turn voters so easily, the country has no chance at all.

Adjoran on October 18, 2010 at 2:51 PM

FUnemployment for Everyone!

portlandon on October 18, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Pundits were unexpectedly surprised at the gloomy forecast for unemployment, which was considered both surprising and unexpected. It should come as no surprise to expect an unexpectedly poor outlook for unemployment in the near future, but the surprise will be widespread nevertheless. That’s just expected.

Paul-Cincy on October 18, 2010 at 2:56 PM

but the number of long-term unemployed dropped slightly, as did part-time workers looking for full-time employment.

Gallup and the lame stream media, now know as state run media, are all IGNORING THE U6 number which is over 17%. Real unemplyment is still over 22%. (see shadowstats.com)

Mankai you left out Veteran’s Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas! I don’t know if that is the slowest hiring period of the year, but it has to be in contention. Next to the fourth of July that span is the hardest to get hiring managers to interview and hire in many fields.

In retail, my understanding is that by the end of October most retailers have the help they want for the season. (From a piece I read last year) What you all seeing? are the retailers in your neck of the woods hiring? (not trying to hijack the thread, question seems on topic and I’m curious.)

dogsoldier on October 18, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Paul-Cincy on October 18, 2010 at 2:56 PM

LOL! Thread winner IMHO.

dogsoldier on October 18, 2010 at 3:14 PM

DC-area U-Haul locations are hiring extra staff to handle requests on November 3.

mankai on October 18, 2010 at 3:16 PM

Retailers are expected to add between 550,000 and 650,000 jobs nationally this holiday season, according to a forecast from the national outplacement firmChallenger, Gray and Christmas.

See the stimulus worked.
-crr6, narutoboy, Proud Rino

angryed on October 18, 2010 at 3:20 PM

An anchor with only one brong, cannot anchor the ship.

NoDonkey on October 18, 2010 at 2:19 PM

Brong? The hell? Are you trying to say “prong”?

Most modern anchors have only one fluke/palm, and they are quite effective, more so than the ancient or traditional forms that you might be thinking of. There are some decent pictures on Wikipedia.

VekTor on October 18, 2010 at 3:26 PM

strictnein on October 18, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Ha, ha. I think you know what I meant.

PattyJ on October 18, 2010 at 3:36 PM

dogsoldier on October 18, 2010 at 3:14 PM

2nd that

cmsinaz on October 18, 2010 at 3:40 PM

They’re going to get a helluva lot worse. Now that big boy Obama will have a bunch of new Republicans lying around then all of those bad bad jobs numbers will be stuck right to them incessantly. The glory days will be Obama’s first two years, just remember the “good times” back when we had a Dem controlled congress and unemployment was ‘only 9.5%’…well, all the truth will be told come January when the lying stops, the truth comes out and Johnny Boehner will be starting to look really really bad because he’s been in office and the R’s will be in control…/

ted c on October 18, 2010 at 3:50 PM

How Unexpected…

Hey, some body had to say it….

Chip on October 18, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Never know here folks; Mythbusters might have been made an offer they could not refuse. Bammie on the show or OSHA makes a visit. Wouldn’t want to lose that nice little explosives license would you? SEIU thugs demanding only union workers be used. I’m the only thing standing between you and the pitchforks…

Tell me you are certain it didn’t happen this way.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2010 at 5:31 PM

Ok unemployment sucks, blah…blah…blah. it looks like the redhead is looking for a job, again. My question is did the stormtrooper find a job?

jbh45 on October 18, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Sorry for the doubletap.

slickwillie2001 on October 18, 2010 at 5:36 PM

Next unemployment report will be worse

My first thought when reading that Headline, “can we say it was ‘expectedly’ now?”
Of course when they revise last month’s numbers that will still be “unexpected”

Gwillie on October 18, 2010 at 6:05 PM

See the stimulus worked.
-crr6, narutoboy, Proud Rino

angryed on October 18, 2010 at 3:20 PM

They had a threesome?!?

Yoop on October 18, 2010 at 6:17 PM

I’d pay a dollar not to see that.

VekTor on October 18, 2010 at 7:24 PM

Holiday season? Oh you mean Christmas season.

Daemonocracy on October 18, 2010 at 7:56 PM