Republican up 12 in NM gubernatorial race

posted at 10:15 am on October 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

New Mexico’s Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Diane Denish, figured that she could just follow outgoing Democratic Governor Bill Richardson into the top spot without too much trouble, but it hasn’t exactly worked out that way.  First, her campaign made a couple of missteps, including one doozy where Denish aired an attack ad against Susana Martinez that featured a teacher who later turned out to also be the wife of a kidnapper that Martinez had prosecuted.  Denish then had Barack Obama campaign for her, who endorsed her while mispronouncing her name.

That adds up to disaster, and Survey USA captures it clearly:

In an election for New Mexico Governor today, 10/15/10, Republican Susana Martinez defeats Democrat Diane Denish 54% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive KOB-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Martinez’ advantage is even stronger among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot.

Martinez is at or above 50% among both men and women, young and old, upper income and lower income. Denish leads among Hispanics and Native Americans, but not by enough to overcome Martinez’ 2:1 advantage among whites. Denish holds just 71% of Democratic voters; 27% defect. Independents break Republican. Among the handful of New Mexico voters who think health care and education are the most important issue in the election, the Democrat leads. But among the majority of voters who think the economy is the most important issue, the Republican leads.

Martinez leads in all age demographics, in the two income demographics, in the two general regions used by Survey USA, and among those who have already voted and those who have not yet voted.  Among those who have already cast ballots, Martinez leads by 24 point, 60/36, which means that each day that passes, Denish has less time and more ground to make up.  It’s a vicious cycle for the Democrat, who needs a huge gamechanger but may not have enough time even if one arrives, thanks to early voting.

How did Martinez get so far ahead?  Richardson’s administration has had a dark cloud over it for some time regarding corruption, and that obviously doesn’t help his second in command.  Martinez beats Denish on the top issues as well.  While Denish has a significant lead in health care (58/40) and an overwhelming lead on education (73/22), Denish trails badly on the top issues of this cycle: the economy (41/57), federal deficits and spending (14/83), and immigration (32/61).

This race appears over, and it looks like Republicans will get New Mexico back.  That may have some impact on the House races as well, perhaps especially Steve Pearce.


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We’re going Red

CWforFreedom on October 16, 2010 at 10:19 AM

May I claim the moral and popular authority of my fellow Hispanic Republicans? Or may I just give a woo hoo!!

lizzie beth on October 16, 2010 at 10:20 AM

The wave is beginning to crest.

Go Susana!

I lived in Alamogordo for a while. NM is a beautiful state.

darwin on October 16, 2010 at 10:26 AM

While Denish has a significant lead in health care (58/40) and an overwhelming lead on education (73/22),

This is really weird where the two issues the dems have had the most ruinous of positions they still gain the most support. Are people unable to grasp the connection between the economic health, the educational health and the physical health of their lives?

fourdeucer on October 16, 2010 at 10:26 AM

fourdeucer on October 16, 2010 at 10:26 AM

Many dem supporters are like zombies. They just accept whatever they’re told and disregard the reality staring them in the face.

darwin on October 16, 2010 at 10:29 AM

I think it was over at Ace but someone said “We are going to need a redder map”. Funny and true, bonus.

Cindy Munford on October 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM

I dunno about moral and popular authority, lizzie beth, but Hispanic and female Republicans sure make democRATs wet their pants, pardon the expression.

Knott Buyinit on October 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM

According to Channel 13 last night, the forum NMPolitics.org lets you slug it out with either candidate!

Catseye on October 16, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Thanks to Iron Man 2, I now know that New Mexiso is the “Land of Enchantment”

That movie has effectively doubled what I knew about New Mexico. Previously, I knew it’s name and Capital City.

Jones Zemkophill on October 16, 2010 at 10:38 AM

And that

New Mexiso

is why its a bad idea to use a cell phone keyboard to type.

Jones Zemkophill on October 16, 2010 at 10:39 AM

is why its a bad idea to use a cell phone keyboard to type.

Jones Zemkophill on October 16, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Even the QWERTY cell phone keyboards drive me nuts. I have ten thumbs and am falling behind in the world of tech.

CWforFreedom on October 16, 2010 at 10:47 AM

I have ten thumbs and am falling behind in the world of tech.

CWforFreedom on October 16, 2010 at 10:47 AM

Ten thumbs? Dude … under ObamaCare you’ll be slated for either vaporization or Soylent Green.

darwin on October 16, 2010 at 10:49 AM

This makes me very happy. Demographically, this is great news for the entire Southwest. I’m so glad too that we’re about to elect a couple of Latino Repub congressmen in TX too. Well, one’s in a toss-up race, but I think he’s gonna win.

juliesa on October 16, 2010 at 10:49 AM

Sarah Palin’s endorsement sure is toxic!

takeamericabackin10 on October 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Just realized I haven’t seen a single Democrat bumper sticker this cycle in tree hugging Santa Fe. What a difference two years makes.

Seth Halpern on October 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM

New Mexico’s a beautiful place. I’ve been writing it off as another lost commie state, so it’s wonderful to see that good changes can happen there.

juliesa on October 16, 2010 at 10:53 AM

November 2…….American Voters will be painting der towns,
cities,State’s…….

RED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 10:59 AM

We’re going to have to capitulate if we’re going to capture any Hispanic votes.
/RINO hand-wringers

hoosiermama on October 16, 2010 at 10:59 AM

This is really weird where the two issues the dems have had the most ruinous of positions they still gain the most support. Are people unable to grasp the connection between the economic health, the educational health and the physical health of their lives?

fourdeucer on October 16, 2010 at 10:26 AM

I find it funnier the two issues that Denish leads on are the two that a governor can most effect. The economy and immigration can to some point though that’s more just being above or below average, and the federal deficit? Yeah, can’t wait to see Martinez get rid of that.

Of course, on the other hand many good Republican gubernatorial candidates (and others) lost in 2006/08 because of Iraq or the financial metldown. Oh wait, I see darwin is maybe a third the way there, but with a minor correction will be there:

Many dem supporters Most people are like zombies. They just accept whatever they’re told and disregard the reality staring them in the face.

darwin on October 16, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Either way, sounds like a good candidate so I’ll take the coin toss win this time.

jarodea on October 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Just realized I haven’t seen a single Democrat bumper sticker this cycle in tree hugging Santa Fe. What a difference two years makes.

Seth Halpern on October 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Seth Halpern: Its a Sign,hehe,ahem!!

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 11:04 AM

This race appears over, and it looks like Republicans will get New Mexico back.  That may have some impact on the House races as well, perhaps especially Steve Pearce.

Early voting (other than at the courthouse) starts today in Bernalillo County. Be the wave.
This number bodes well not only for Pearce (NM-2) but also for Jon Barela (NM-1).

thirtypundit on October 16, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Her problem is Richardson, not Obama mispronouncing her name, for heaven’s sakes.

That’s petty stuff.

AnninCA on October 16, 2010 at 11:10 AM

I should have said, her problem is that she’s a Dem and affiliated with Richardson.

AnninCA on October 16, 2010 at 11:10 AM

“Democrats just walk away and there will be an end to the horror!”
- Humongous (The ayatollah of rock-and-rollah.)

We’re gonna take the wasteland back from these libtards yee haw!!!

WastelandMan on October 16, 2010 at 11:12 AM

We’re going to have to capitulate if we’re going to capture any Hispanic votes.
/RINO hand-wringers

hoosiermama on October 16, 2010 at 10:59 AM

hoosiermama:

The Democrats are running scared on losing those Hispanic
Voters,we heard it in Tampa,now New Mexico!!
==========================================================

Ad in NM gov race raises GOP nominee’s Texas roots

SANTA FE, N.M.—The politics of birthplace has bubbled up in New Mexico’s race for governor.

Democratic nominee Diane Denish launched an advertisement earlier this week reminding voters that her GOP opponent, Susana Martinez, grew up in Texas—a “Tejana,” (Tay-HAH’-nah), as the ad describes to Martinez.

The ad is an attempt to boost Denish’s support in heavily Hispanic areas of northern New Mexico, which traditionally favor Democrats, according to Maurilio Vigil, a retired political science professor at New Mexico Highlands University in Las Vegas and author of a book about New Mexico Hispanics.

“It would have much more of an impact here in northern New Mexico because it definitely appeals to their sense of culture, loyalty, ethnicity and reminding them of this common history,” Vigil said in an interview on Thursday.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/texas/ci_16289508

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Ted Nugent – Stranglehold

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c3d7QgZr7g

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 11:19 AM

I find it funnier the two issues that Denish leads on are the two that a governor can most effect.
jarodea on October 16, 2010 at 11:02 AM

That point went right over my head, thanks,

and darwin on October 16, 2010 at 10:29 AM

is right the majority of dems are zombies because they are to lazy to learn the truth.

fourdeucer on October 16, 2010 at 11:20 AM

Let’s hope this wave washes over the statehouses too because next year is reapportionment time.

Kafir on October 16, 2010 at 11:21 AM

I dunno about moral and popular authority, lizzie beth, but Hispanic and female Republicans sure make democRATs wet their pants, pardon the expression.

Knott Buyinit on October 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM

Hee, I know. Which is one of the only reasons I claim my bifurcatedness. I despise racial politics. But I never want Hispanics to get trapped in the plantation of liberalness like African Americans have, so I claim my conservative Hispanicness proudly. I know the Dems hate me. The fact that I’m of Mexican descent probably makes it worse. The fact that I don’t support amnesty…

In fact I can safely say that I don’t know anyone that supports amnesty in my entire family. I always grind my teeth when folks like Luis Guiterrez or Jorge Ramos claim the moral authority to speak for the Latin community on immigration issues and that ‘regularization’ is its top priority. Cause we don’t all agree. It is the priority of the La Raza leftists, but that’s not nearly all of us.

lizzie beth on October 16, 2010 at 11:22 AM

Yay! I know who my parents (ABQ residents) will vote for.

baldilocks on October 16, 2010 at 11:22 AM

Denish then had Barack Obama campaign for her, who endorsed her while mispronouncing her name.

does Denish rhyme with “Hey Beotch”??

jus askin’

ted c on October 16, 2010 at 11:24 AM

Sarah Palin’s endorsement sure is toxic!

takeamericabackin10 on October 16, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Hey now! Don’t discount Romney’s endorsement….after she secured the GOP nomination.

Doughboy on October 16, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Hey now! Don’t discount Romney’s endorsement….after she secured the GOP nomination.

Doughboy on October 16, 2010 at 11:33 AM

!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, her running mate is Hispanic as well.

As someone else said, so much for having to capitulate on our values to get the Hispanic vote.

gary4205 on October 16, 2010 at 12:00 PM

I can’t wait to see the Richardson administration go the way of the dinosaur. Richardson’s corruption and political idiocy reached deep into his military appointments in the National Guard as well. His appointed Adjutant General is the reason why the New Mexico Air National Guard lost it’s F-16s (and forced me to move to another state to find work.)

Chuckie on October 16, 2010 at 12:17 PM

Martinez is a Hispanic woman who is about to be elected Governor of a swing state by fairly large margins. She was a former prosecutor, so she has law & order credentials. And her stepson is serving in the United States navy.

She will be a major player in the Veepstakes.

Mister Mets on October 16, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Yay to our neighbors to the west! :D

capejasmine on October 16, 2010 at 12:30 PM

My wife and I-Lincoln County residents-will take great pleasure in voting for Susana.

Adios, Bill Richardson. You were the Jimmy Carter of our state. I hope to see crucified Democrats on every telephone pole in the state.

Lincoln Cadillac on October 16, 2010 at 12:36 PM

Denish has been trying to distance herself from Richardson, but it hasn’t worked. Martinez is running an ad from a previous election with Denish praising Richardson’s experience. It’s pretty damn good.

mchristian on October 16, 2010 at 12:48 PM

That movie has effectively doubled what I knew about New Mexico. Previously, I knew it’s name and Capital City.

Jones Zemkophill on October 16, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Wait, you didn’t know that you always (always!) make a left turn at Albuquerque ?

lorien1973 on October 16, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Just the other day I was driving home what did I see ? Denish-Colon I laughed all the way home.If the shoe fits….

MES401067 on October 16, 2010 at 12:52 PM

If Republicans win at all in major New Mexico races, they hardly ever squeak above 51% or 52%. For Martinez to be ahead by such a margin in that state is truly remarkable.

This is a capable, likeable, and impressive candidate. I think she definitely has a future not just in New Mexico politics, but nationally as well.

Edouard on October 16, 2010 at 1:55 PM

SANTA FE, N.M.—The politics of birthplace has bubbled up in New Mexico’s race for governor.

Democratic nominee Diane Denish launched an advertisement earlier this week reminding voters that her GOP opponent, Susana Martinez, grew up in Texas—a “Tejana,” (Tay-HAH’-nah), as the ad describes to Martinez.

The ad is an attempt to boost Denish’s support in heavily Hispanic areas of northern New Mexico, which traditionally favor Democrats, according to Maurilio Vigil, a retired political science professor at New Mexico Highlands University in Las Vegas and author of a book about New Mexico Hispanics.

“It would have much more of an impact here in northern New Mexico because it definitely appeals to their sense of culture, loyalty, ethnicity and reminding them of this common history,” Vigil said in an interview on Thursday.

http://www.elpasotimes.com/texas/ci_16289508

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Good grief, what a loser move by Denish. Criticizing Martinez’s birthplace.

New Mexico south of Albuquerque is FULL of Tejanos / Tejanas. Leave it to a power-hungry Democrat to stir up class/regional divisions within the state and attempt to pit them against each other.

Edouard on October 16, 2010 at 2:03 PM

And least we forget, I remember a Sarah Palin endorsement and a campaign appearance back at the beginning when Martinez was then neck in neck in the primary. The beauty of Sarah Palin has been the recognition that many of these great candidates needed in the press and in the voters minds so those candidates then had a platform to reach the voters. Sarah is responsible for shining the spotlight and then each candidate had to take advantage of that and win over the voters themselves. That has been the power of Palin this last year.

PhilipJames on October 16, 2010 at 2:30 PM

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 11:17 AM
Good grief, what a loser move by Denish. Criticizing Martinez’s birthplace.

New Mexico south of Albuquerque is FULL of Tejanos / Tejanas. Leave it to a power-hungry Democrat to stir up class/regional divisions within the state and attempt to pit them against each other.

Edouard on October 16, 2010 at 2:03 PM

Edouard:Democrats stirring up sh*t exactly,at least for the
Leftys,their masks are falling off,on the political
stages,for all American’s to see!!

canopfor on October 16, 2010 at 3:11 PM

The defeat will not make Richardson proud. Couldn’t happen to a ‘nicer’ guy.

Viva Nuevo Mexico libre!

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2010 at 3:42 PM

If she decides to seek the GOP nomination, Sarah Palin is gonna have a purse full of IOUs – people like Martinez and Haley who likely wouldn’t even got the nomination without Sarah’s backing.

bw222 on October 16, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Arizona has shown us all the importance of having as many strong Republican Governors and Attorney Generals as possible to protect our country!

Vote Democrats OUT OF OFFICE at the Federal, State and Local levels in 2010!

Good luck Susana Martinez!
http://www.susanamartinez2010.com/

Note: Early voting has already begun in New Mexico.

wren on October 16, 2010 at 5:09 PM

Having grown up in New Mexico, developed my conservative / libertarian ideology there, it does my heart good to seeing the state come back into the light. Having said that, for those of you not from New Mexico, do not discount Dinesh’s latest ploy. Living in Texas now, I can vouch that many New Mexicans have not forgotten the Republic of Texas “trade mission” which they still consider an “invasion” some 160 years later. I still get looked at with distaste when I go home because I sold out and moved to that imperial power to the east. But, it also shows how desperate the dems are becoming. Good luck Susana!

georgeofthedesert on October 18, 2010 at 10:51 AM