Toomey opens up 10-point lead on Sestak in PA

posted at 11:36 am on October 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Today brings good news and bad news on the Senate front of the midterms, and we’ll start with the good new in Pennsylvania.  Pat Toomey, whose mere presence in the Republican primary flipped Arlen Specter to the Democrats and into an ignominious end to his political career, now has a commanding ten-point lead in the latest Rasmussen poll.  Toomey just misses the 50% mark, but then again, Sestak can’t get above 40%, either:

Republican Pat Toomey now holds a 10-point lead over Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak, the widest gap between the candidates since early April in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Pennsylvania shows Toomey earning 49% of the vote, while Sestak picks up 39% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, but a sizable 10% remain undecided less than three weeks before Election Day. …

Two weeks ago, Toomey, a conservative activist who formerly served in Congress, was ahead 49% to 40%, and earlier in September, he posted a 49% to 41% lead. Except for a brief bounce following his Democratic Primary win in mid-May over incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, Sestak has run second to Toomey in every survey since February.

Rasmussen has moved this race to its Solid GOP column, which appears reasonable given the lack of movement by Sestak over the last few months.  Toomey has an overwhelming lead among independents, 54/13, which grows even larger when adding leaners, 62/15.  Toomey wins among men and women and wins almost every income demographic except $20-40K.  He has a solid favorability rating (54/36), while Sestak has grown unpopular at 43/48.  Speaking of which, Pennsylvania voters don’t feel very happy about President Obama either, giving him a job approval rating of 39/60.

And this all happens in a sample of likely voters that has a D+8 advantage, 45/37.

Now for the bad news.  In Connecticut, Linda McMahon has dropped back by double digits against Richard Blumenthal despite two good debates, according to Quinnipiac’s poll today:

Reversing a months-long decline in his lead in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal has opened up a 54 – 43 percent likely voter lead over Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 – 46 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 28 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. …

Independent voters shift from 49 – 44 percent for McMahon September 28 to 49 – 44 percent for Blumenthal today. Women back Blumenthal 63 – 32 percent while men back McMahon 52 – 46 percent.

The pollster concludes that McMahon may have peaked too soon, in September, and that her heavy advertising may be causing fatigue among voters. McMahon never led in this race, but she had been building some momentum in a normally deep-blue state.  Blumenthal may be getting a bounce back due to his still-high personal approval ratings in the state as well.

Connecticut was always going to be a tough race to win in any case.  It’s not over yet, of course, and this could very well be an outlier, although the Q-poll is normally a reliable indicator.  Perhaps this comes in time to rally the troops for McMahon’s behalf, but it also means that calculations on Senate control that rely on Republicans winning this race may need to be adjusted accordingly.


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Daily KOS disagrees – I just got an email that says Sestak is now 3 ahead of Toomey and KOS is moving this to a Blue win.

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

SOS,

Sink Sestaks Ship!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

McMahon’s slipping? Quick! List all her faults and flaws publicly and often and write her competitor’s commercials for her. In fact, delcare that the election’s over and that she can’t possibly win so why bother trying. It’s obviously working well in DE.

DrAllecon on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

One step forward- Two steps backwards…arrgh

hawkman on October 14, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Hopeys Little Bighorn is falling into place!!(sarc).

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:42 AM

LOL … this is an email from Marko at DKos …

Subject: Dems Take the Lead!

The latest poll in Pennsylvania–the first poll to be taken there in over a week–shows Democrat Joe Sestak pulling ahead of Republican Pat Toomey by three points. It’s a big comeback, since Toomey’s led for the past five months.

So today, Daily Kos is adding Joe Sestak to the Orange to Blue page, and looking for 500 people to contribute $10 to his campaign. You need to be one of those 500.

This is the sort of win that would stop Republicans across the country. If we grab a win in Pennsylvania, Republicans would only have a 0.5% of taking control of the Senate.

End Republican hopes by contributing $10 to Joe Sestak now.

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Advertising fatigue amongst voters? Aw, poor CT darlings. I don’t understand how a man who would lie about serving in Vietnam can attract that much support. Sounds like a weasel as state AG, too.

changer1701 on October 14, 2010 at 11:44 AM

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Isn’t denial the first stage of grief?

coyoterex on October 14, 2010 at 11:45 AM

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:42 AM

You are on a roll today..Keep up the good posting..:)

Dire Straits on October 14, 2010 at 11:46 AM

SOS,

Sink Sestaks Ship!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

You’re too polite, my friend.

$#!& On Sestak!

Laura in Maryland on October 14, 2010 at 11:46 AM

It is so depressing that Connecticut might choose Blumenthal after seeing what he stands for in the debates. This man is a disaster.

Caiwyn on October 14, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Unfortunately Connecticut was always gonna be a tough race once Dodd bailed. I hope McMahon can pull it out. She’s run a quality campaign. But unfortunately women tend to vote for Dems to begin with and the images of scantily clad female wrestlers and divas in the WWF won’t help matters.

Doughboy on October 14, 2010 at 11:47 AM

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:43 AM

What poll is that?

changer1701 on October 14, 2010 at 11:47 AM

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:43 AM

You get e-mail from KOS? Why?

darwin-t on October 14, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Isn’t denial the first stage of grief?

coyoterex on October 14, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Nice post..I was thinking the same..:)

PS..Marko is certifiable..

Dire Straits on October 14, 2010 at 11:47 AM

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:43 AM

I’m sure Kos uses only the most accurate scientific polling and sampling methods.

UltimateBob on October 14, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Hey Ed, remember how when you endorsed O’D you said it was OK to throw away a seat in DE, because we probably wouldn’t win exactly 9 Senate seats without DE and therefore DE wouldn’t determine Senate control? Well, Rasmussen now has the GOP ahead in exactly 9 currently Dem-held seats.

Jon0815 on October 14, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Hey Ed, remember how when you endorsed O’D you said it was OK to throw away a seat in DE, because we probably wouldn’t win exactly 9 Senate seats without DE and therefore DE wouldn’t determine Senate control? Well, Rasmussen now has the GOP ahead in exactly 9 currently Dem-held seats.

Jon0815 on October 14, 2010 at 11:49 AM

So she is a witch!!!

Lily on October 14, 2010 at 11:52 AM

It ain’t over….til it’s over.

Kos also believes the world should be obliterated of Republicans/Conservatives. Bunch of whack jobs, who have no souls.

capejasmine on October 14, 2010 at 11:53 AM

Heh. Kos is referring to some Democrat internal poll: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/13/10-pa-sen-ge-tvse_n_724667.html

changer1701 on October 14, 2010 at 11:54 AM

What poll is that?

Probably PPP. They are Kos’ new pollster, and they are showing a Dem bias in their Senate polls now (they are the only ones showing Bennett ahead in CO, they have Manchin +3 in WV while Ras has him -3, etc).

Jon0815 on October 14, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Women back Blumenthal 63 – 32 percent

I don’t get this. At all. Blumenthal is an absolute weanie.

Beyond that, did McMahon ever try to tie Blumenthal to Dodd? If she didn’t, I think she should have tied Dodd around Blumenthal’s neck and add Blumenthal’s unattractiveness on top of it.

BuckeyeSam on October 14, 2010 at 11:55 AM

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Kos is dredging the bottom of the pond for money.

Other news from Kos ……..

Stimulus is working. Unemployment numbers drop. Iran caves in to Obama, destroys all nuke facilities. Polar bears committing suicide on melting icebergs. Medicare will remain well-funded. Elliot Spitzer/Kathleen Parker show is big hit.

fogw on October 14, 2010 at 11:56 AM

I get what Jon Cryer(aka Markos Moulitsas) is doing by citing that BS poll of his. He’s trying to get disillusioned and depressed libtards to donate to Sestak. The problem with that strategery is it’ll get Dems to waste campaign contributions on a guy who has no shot at winning. I don’t know what he’s thinking.

Doughboy on October 14, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Maybe McMahon should call him a whore.

SwampYankee on October 14, 2010 at 11:58 AM

Probably PPP. They are Kos’ new pollster, and they are showing a Dem bias in their Senate polls now (they are the only ones showing Bennett ahead in CO, they have Manchin +3 in WV while Ras has him -3, etc).

Jon0815 on October 14, 2010 at 11:54 AM

That’s PPP, as in Piss-Poor Polling.

slickwillie2001 on October 14, 2010 at 11:59 AM

Change I can believe in. Philadelphia voter fraud won’t be enough to save the PA Democrats this year.

Good Lt on October 14, 2010 at 11:59 AM

I was thinking the bad news would be Illinois.

Marcus on October 14, 2010 at 12:00 PM

I don’t know what he’s thinking.

Doughboy on October 14, 2010 at 11:57 AM

You are assuming a lot out of Marko..:)

Dire Straits on October 14, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Bwaaahahhhhaaahahahaha….

That is after Obama’s recent stump for Sestak this past weekend, no?

And Obama/Biden tandem team is coming to ‘help’ Coons.

Yeepppieeeeee!

Sir Napsalot on October 14, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Maybe Sestak can get Schwartzenegger to come to PA and say “It’s not a Toomey!”?

Lanceman on October 14, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Oof. How can anyone who listened to Blumenthal destroy himself over the job creation question can vote for the man is beyond me; the guy is a stone-cold fool.

But, it seems that America has to reach absolute rock bottom before making serious changes, so one step forward and two back. I’ll be in my bunker.

Bishop on October 14, 2010 at 12:06 PM

Dire straits at 11:46, 2nd that

cmsinaz on October 14, 2010 at 12:06 PM

Lanceman, +1….excellent

cmsinaz on October 14, 2010 at 12:07 PM

Wow ,Rasmussen has Nevada tied again and Kasich only up by 3 in Ohio for Governor. This is getting tooo close for me.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 12:11 PM

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:42 AM

You are on a roll today..Keep up the good posting..:)

Dire Straits on October 14, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Dire Straits: I’m work’n on it,oh goodmorning!:)

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Quinnipiac has been all over the place. I don’t think CT has ever been a decent shot at a pickup since Dodd dropped out, but the Q was the one claiming Paladino had a shot in NY, too.

Red Cloud on October 14, 2010 at 12:14 PM

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM
You’re too polite, my friend.

$#!& On Sestak!

Laura in Maryland on October 14, 2010 at 11:46 AM

Laura in Maryland: Sh*t On…..LOL:)

canopfor on October 14, 2010 at 12:14 PM

. This is getting tooo close for me.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 12:11 PM

It is getting scary..But tsome of these polls are getting weird..

PS..I believe we will win those races you named..:)

Dire Straits on October 14, 2010 at 12:15 PM

The problem with that strategery is it’ll get Dems to waste campaign contributions on a guy who has no shot at winning.

Shhhh. Let the Kos Kids blow millions on a race that is completely lost. Between that and whatever the DNC blew on those idiotic Chamber of Commerce ads I’m happy whenever they squander their diminishing funds.

paulzummo on October 14, 2010 at 12:17 PM

OT: Steve Driehaus is a freshman Dem from the SW Ohio district that consists roughly of Cincinnati going west to Indiana. He’s bordered by Boehner to the north and Jean Schmidt to the east.

Anyway, yesterday, the local paper trumpted that the DCCC has yanked any more media from him. Fox just played a Web ad he’s running now imploring supporters to contribute. It’s hilarious because he looks like a hostage pleading for a ransom.

BuckeyeSam on October 14, 2010 at 12:19 PM

That’s too bad about CT, but it was a long-shot to pull back within striking distance.

AnninCA on October 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Subject: Dems Take the Lead!

The latest poll in Pennsylvania–the first poll to be taken there in over a week–shows Democrat Joe Sestak pulling ahead of Republican Pat Toomey by three points. It’s a big comeback, since Toomey’s led for the past five months.

Kos must have been using a skewed sample. One of the concerns about Toomey’s previous run was that he was too conservative and couldn’t win Independent voters, but if Rasmussen has him up 62/15 (better than 4 to 1) among Indies, that plus Republicans will overcome the knee-jerkers in Philly.

It’s a shame that BlumenArse is still leading in CT, but there are still lots of Nutmeggers who like the Government dole, both on the state and national level. CT keeps electing a State legislature full of Tax&Spend Democrats, but has had Republican Governors (Rowland, Rell) to keep them in check for the last 16 years. If Malloy (D) wins the Governor’s race, CT residents will see taxes through the roof, and may miss McMahon.

Steve Z on October 14, 2010 at 12:27 PM

In Connecticut, Blumenthal is considered an alpha male.

bloviator on October 14, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Let’s hope this is the end of Joe Sestak’s brief and ignominous political career.

rockmom on October 14, 2010 at 12:36 PM

In Connecticut, Blumenthal is considered an alpha male.

bloviator on October 14, 2010 at 12:34 PM

That’s funny. Oh goodness, I think Linda is a great candidate, personally. She sounded very solid in the debate.

But he is more their type, for sure.

AnninCA on October 14, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Maybe Sestak can get Schwartzenegger to come to PA and say “It’s not a Toomey!”?

Lanceman on October 14, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Winner

KeepOhioRed on October 14, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Meh. I assume Kos is trying to get conservatives to drop money/time into the PA race that is already a win rather than give money/phonebank for Sharron Angle and races that are genuinely close. I don’t worry too much about their polling. :)

athenanyc on October 14, 2010 at 12:57 PM

The McMahon numbers don’t make sense. Blumenthal’s jobs embarrassment during the debate and the subsequent McMahon ad were powerful and should have cost him dearly.

The only thing I’m concerned about with McMahon is oversaturation. People can feel pressured and that an election is being bought when a candidate pushes too much current and not enough signal. She’s got the signal now, with Blumenthal’s error, but she needs to modulate her campaign better. It’s a small state and the ads go far.

paul1149 on October 14, 2010 at 1:02 PM

GO PAT!!

Joe Sestak is a big government lib and a despicable human being.

MCPO Airdale on October 14, 2010 at 1:05 PM

That’s Quinnipiac (buh-LOW-knee).

Emperor Norton on October 14, 2010 at 1:11 PM

Daily KOS disagrees – I just got an email that says Sestak is now 3 ahead of Toomey and KOS is moving this to a Blue win.

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Aww crap. Well I guess it’s over then. I won’t even bother voting anymore. And I will tell all my friends to stay home too.

angryed on October 14, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Mr. Morrissey you need to read the cross tabs on this one I do believe Ms McMahon will take this seat. Also anyone want to tell me who conducted this magic poll in PA from Daily KOS?

Jdripper on October 14, 2010 at 1:14 PM

I thought KOS fired his pollster so he could get more real.

Anyway, the polls are very, very odd this year, for sure. Wide differences, depending on the turnout models.

And, you can’t even really tell if you see 2 or 3 polls that are close. They all might be vastly wrong about turnout.

AnninCA on October 14, 2010 at 1:19 PM

“Unelectable.”

RINOs keep using that word. I do not think it means what they think it means.

logis on October 14, 2010 at 1:32 PM

Obviously, this polling cannot be true! I got an email last night from the DSCC (how I ended up on their mailing list, I have no idea!) that told me that Sestak had pulled ahead of Toomey by 47-44. (And asked me to kick in $5 to keep these races breaking in their direction).

Oh, and Manchin was 5 over Raese in WV.

I’d love to know what poll they are looking at the DSCC, or at least get whatever they are smokin’ cause it must be good.

lilliew on October 14, 2010 at 1:44 PM

You get e-mail from KOS? Why?

darwin-t on October 14, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Because I have a subscription on the site. I like to see what they’re saying.

At this point – they are seriously delusional.

If this turns out to be a Crimson Tide – you just watch the fighting that will happen in the Democratic camp. They skulk off in defeat like Republicans – they start burning things!

HondaV65 on October 14, 2010 at 1:53 PM

All these races favoring the tea party and republicans seem ok on the surface, however, I fully expect the GOP, the RNCC, McConnell and Beohner to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory. There are already hints of lowering expectations. The “Pledge” is weak. Should have had term limits in it. Where is the support for McMahon and Christine O’Donnell? Sh*t!

ultracon on October 14, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Subject: Dems Take the Lead!

The latest poll in Pennsylvania–the first poll to be taken there in over a week–shows Democrat Joe Sestak pulling ahead of Republican Pat Toomey by three points. It’s a big comeback, since Toomey’s led for the past five months.

So today, Daily Kos is adding Joe Sestak to the Orange to Blue page, and looking for 500 people to contribute $10 to his campaign. You need to be one of those 500.

This is the sort of win that would stop Republicans across the country. If we grab a win in Pennsylvania, Republicans would only have a 0.5% of taking control of the Senate.

End Republican hopes by contributing $10 to Joe Sestak now.

..oh, and anyone got a spare box of condoms and some KY jelly? I got a date with a chicken tonight.

The War Planner on October 14, 2010 at 2:56 PM

O/T: Erick has an article today at Red State about the GOP trying to marginalize the folks DeMint has worked to get elected. They want Coburn instead of DeMint to be the liaison to the freshman senators to help them adjust. Trent Lott, two months ago, “We don’t need a lot of DeMint disciples – as soon as they get here, we need to co-opt them”.

silvernana on October 14, 2010 at 3:08 PM

Where are all the Delaware ‘told you so’ Castle supporters on this one? After all PA is a blueish state, and Specter was a lock.

clement on October 14, 2010 at 5:21 PM

Absentee ballot completed, sealed and ready to mail tomorrow for my last vote as a PA resident. Senator(elect) Toomey, my vote is on the way to you.

(Well, as long as some Democrat lawyer doesn’t nullifly the military votes again)

hawkdriver on October 14, 2010 at 9:14 PM