Rasmussen puts Boxer up three in CA Senate race

posted at 3:35 pm on October 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

If conservatives had to name just one Senate race they’d most want to win, the election in California would have to come at the top of the list.  Barbara Boxer remains in the lead, albeit within the margin of error, according to the latest Rasmussen poll — and still below the 50% line incumbents need to cross.  The race has changed little over the last few weeks:

Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer continues to hold the slightest of leads over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina in California’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 49% support and Fiorina with 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Just over a week ago, Boxer, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, posted a similar 49% to 45% lead over Fiorina, a former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Boxer has held a small lead in every survey but one since February with 42% to 49% of the vote. Fiorina, in those same surveys, has earned 38% to 47% support.

Rasmussen calls it a toss-up, but Fiorina needs to start showing some momentum if she wants to catch the incumbent.  Barack Obama won California by a 24-point margin, 61/37, and still has a 57/42 job approval rating among likely voters.  Boxer still has a net positive favorability rating, 50/46, which matches up with Fiorina’s 49/45 almost exactly.

The issues don’t provide a good indicator of how late-deciding voters will break in either direction.  Repealing Obamacare is narrowly popular, 49/45, but half of all Californians approve of the federal mandate, 50/46.  The only real bright light in the issues questions is on jobs, with only 17% of voters thinking that the job market has improved, compared to 40% who believe it has worsened and 41% who think it hasn’t changed at all.  If Fiorina can tie Boxer to the jobs issue, she may squeeze out a victory in this race.

Fiorina’s statement in response to this poll drives right at that issue:

“Today’s poll confirms that, after spending more than $10 million on baseless, political attacks against Carly, Barbara Boxer still can’t convince voters she’s deserving of another six-year term in Washington. With a demoralized base, Californians suffering under the weight of 12.4 percent unemployment and the broken promise about the ‘help and hope’ Boxer said would come as a result of the economic stimulus plan, it’s no surprise she is now resorting to scare tactics in her continued desperation to save the one job she cares about: her own.

“Californians are entirely focused on the economy – and the fact that Barbara Boxer hasn’t been able to deliver results for the people of this state and is now trying to distract voters from that dismal record only underscores just how out of touch she has become during her 28 years in Washington. And as our campaign continues to draw a sharp contrast between Boxer’s record of failure with Carly’s proven record of leadership in creating jobs and her fresh perspective on economic growth, we expect Boxer’s support to falter and Carly’s to continue growing.”

That support should have been faltering a few weeks ago.  Thus far, while Boxer doesn’t seem secure, she hasn’t lost much ground yet, either.  Fiorina needs to step up the campaign another level to push her line of attack.


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If conservatives had to name just one Senate race they’d most want to win, the election in California would have to come at the top of the list.

Tough choice, trying to pick just one.

It’s like trying to pick which supermodel you’d like to date.

UltimateBob on October 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Yeah, and exit polls are accurate,too.

bbz123 on October 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM

The tide advances inexorably as the waves ebb and flow.

Akzed on October 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM

I just cannot believe all of those “likely voter” Democrats are going to actually vote this round.

John the Libertarian on October 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Would love to see this, but being a Californian I’m not holding out much hope. Same with Whitman. Hope I’m wrong.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

This is good to see. Boxer appeared to be pulling away last week.

AnninCA on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

If conservatives had to name just one Senate race they’d most want to win, the election in California would have to come at the top of the list.

With respect, Ed, even as a native Californian I would say Nevada’s race is #1. Still, I would dearly love to see Senator Ma’am Boxer out of office, permanently, and I can only weep that California voters apparently do not agree with me.

jwolf on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

also, Miller up 1 in Alaska over Murky…gulp.

joepub on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

nope. not at all..I would rather see Patty Murray get her Azz kicked out of office..

hawkman on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Please, oh please, retire the Rosa Kleb of the Senate.

Bruno Strozek on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

If conservatives had to name just one Senate race they’d most want to win, the election in California would have to come at the top of the list.

Not this conservative. Harry Reid is a much bigger target. Unless you mean a race that conservatives didn’t think would be in play. In that case, yes California and Connecticut are neck-and-neck for me.

Doughboy on October 14, 2010 at 3:43 PM

C’mon Carly Fiorina…. Hammer her—go after that Pantsuit Queen.

ted c on October 14, 2010 at 3:43 PM

John the Libertarian on October 14, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Well they probably wouldn’t vote if it weren’t for the legalize marijuana initiative.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Please, oh please, retire the Rosa Kleb of the Senate.

Bruno Strozek on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

James Bond: “She’s had her kicks.”

Doughboy on October 14, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Fiorina campaign now running ads in teh L.A. market with Fiorina herself proclaiming she’ll go against her own party when she needs to.
Triangulation.
Goodbye Fiorina.

rayra on October 14, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Fiorina should announce her strong support for Prop. 19.

That would be a game-changer.

JohnGalt23 on October 14, 2010 at 3:46 PM

It’ll come down to a recount and then ballots for the bag lady will somehow magically appear in some poll worker’s 2003 corolla. yippeee. thanks minnesota.

jbh45 on October 14, 2010 at 3:47 PM

Elections have consequences….. This state has a woooonnnnderfuuulllll track record the last few cycles. And look what they have to show for it. A totally failed state.

ultracon on October 14, 2010 at 3:48 PM

I hope we don’t get all fired up and it doesn’t work out quite as well as we expected.

GOP GAINS NOT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED

GOP MANDATE REJECTED!

Blah blah blah

tomas on October 14, 2010 at 3:49 PM

Races this close are prime targets for voter fraud.

Not that the dems would ever do such a thing.

hepcat on October 14, 2010 at 3:49 PM

Please, oh please, retire the Rosa Kleb of the Senate.

Bruno Strozek on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Only if Bawney Fwank can be Baron Vladimir Harkonnen.

AubieJon on October 14, 2010 at 3:49 PM

hope we don’t get all fired up and it doesn’t work out quite as well as we expected.

GOP GAINS NOT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED

GOP MANDATE REJECTED!

Blah blah blah

tomas on October 14, 2010 at 3:49 P

Trust me, they are going to say that anyway.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Personally I’d rather see the state sink further and further while on the lib’s watch. Maybe then and only then will the dunce-heads finally understand that libs are killing this state…

jbh45 on October 14, 2010 at 3:51 PM

AWESOME. Go Carly!

silverfox on October 14, 2010 at 3:51 PM

A majority of Californians apparently believe that if things really get bad finanically under Democrats, they can simply get Obama and Congress to get the rest of the country to bail them out, which would explain Barack’s continued well-above-water support in the state and the poll leads Boxer and Brown enjoy right now.

It will also explain a year or two from now when the inevitable mirror of the 1976 N.Y. Daily News headline “Ford to N.Y. Drop Dead” turns up as “Boehner to California: Drop Dead” shows up when congressional Republicans opt against making the other 49 states pay for the Golden State’s drunken-sailor public spending.

jon1979 on October 14, 2010 at 3:52 PM

California is probably the toughest of all races for the GOP -outside of New York, maybe- because of the Prop 19 question. I suspect the advocates for Prop 19 hadn’t explicitly planned on increasing Dem turnout but I suspect it will have that effect and nullify a significant portion of the enthusiasm gap. I hope she pulls it out, but both she and MW have got a really tough road to victory.

BKeyser on October 14, 2010 at 3:52 PM

It’s interesting that the elections generating the most passion among Repulicans is not because of love for the Republican but revulsion for the opponant. It’s disgust with Christ, Boxer and Reid that drives the Republicans not love of Fiorina, Angle or Rubio. I probably love seeing Frank get booted from the house more than any of the individual Senate outcomes, but it’s a tough call.

tommyboy on October 14, 2010 at 3:52 PM

How is her money raising going?

d1carter on October 14, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Would love to see this, but being a Californian I’m not holding out much hope. Same with Whitman. Hope I’m wrong.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Think positive and if possible talk to people. Some people really don’t understand the importance of these elections.

darwin on October 14, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Did the ballots for the Military leave California yet?

capejasmine on October 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM

I trust Rasmussen, and I don’t attack polls I don’t like in a knee-jerk way, but I really have this sense that we are going to see a number of races in 2010 go the way of the Scott Brown race — ending in a way that few saw coming. I think this is one of those races. I honestly just do not see a lot of democrats — particularly democrat women — slogging their way to the polls to pull the lever for Senator M’am. Telling a pollster you support her and actually heading out to vote for her are two vastly different things. I really think Fiorina is going to win this just like Brown did.

Rational Thought on October 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Carly’s getting 5 votes from my household. Hopefully she can pull through. If Brown and Boxer win, I’m officially moving out of this godforsaken state.

BJ on October 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Usually at this point Boxer is pretty clear ahead in the polling. Next week will see the release of at least 3 polls: LAT/SUC, PPIC, and the gold standard: Field. Fiorina doesn’t waver from her conservatism. Her victory will be the most important GOP win in this state since 1966 (guess?).

Apologetic California on October 14, 2010 at 3:55 PM

Fiorina has to swing at Boxer. Ballots are out and early voting has started.

$862 billion down the drain and 12.4% unemployment to show for it. Go for her throat Carly!

El_Terrible on October 14, 2010 at 3:56 PM

As a native Californian, I have a bad feeling about this. Fortunately, we’ll be getting the house up on the market in the next few months and I’ll be out of here for good. Hello, Texas!

trigon on October 14, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Good news: Boxer not at 50% yet

Bad news: Nate Silver at 538 did a report showing how “50% is a magic number for incumbents” isn’t really true

Good news: News of the Republican Wave will begin to hit California (and easily-led wobbly Californians) when the polls close on the east coast, 3 hours before theirs do.

Bad new: Even if all the undecideds break Fiorina, that’s still 49-49 right now.

playblu on October 14, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Well they probably wouldn’t vote if it weren’t for the legalize marijuana initiative.

Yes, that will make it tough for Fiorina. Where’s the eevil plan to get these stoners so stoned on Election Day they forget to vote?

CliffHanger on October 14, 2010 at 3:59 PM

iCarly

Lanceman on October 14, 2010 at 4:01 PM

We’re going to be up late watching Angle, Carly and Rossi.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on October 14, 2010 at 4:02 PM

I want Reid to go.

Next I want Miller to win. Murkowski’s antics have been disgusting.

The loss of Boxer comes in third for me.

INC on October 14, 2010 at 4:04 PM

I’ve got to stop being so pessimistic. It’s just so important this time around. It feels like the future of America depends on this.The tightening of the polls is to be expected, but four races are really the most important to me. Florida, Nevada,California, and Washington.I’m particularly distressed by the Alaskan race.They are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Miller.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 4:04 PM

it’s Harry Reid for me…you know, the guy who muscled thru the law that will let Dems rule for a hundred years?

that guy

r keller on October 14, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Time to buck up $ for Carly.

Trigon, good luck on your move. We’ll be moving there too in about 3 years; I just hope California can stay afloat for that long.

LASue on October 14, 2010 at 4:12 PM

When the results come in from the East and Midwest with Republican victories, voters in the west will change to the winners side… Carly by 7%

Wade on October 14, 2010 at 4:14 PM

As a native Californian, I have a bad feeling about this. Fortunately, we’ll be getting the house up on the market in the next few months and I’ll be out of here for good. Hello, Texas!

trigon on October 14, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Welcome! There’s plenty of room here! Unless you’re a liberal. Then we’re all crowded out. ;)

stvnscott on October 14, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Boxer is running an ad against carly claiming that carlies income rose in the past.
Here lets look at boxers net worth.
2008
Net Worth: From $1,118,007 to $5,299,000
Rank: 43rd in Senate

Assets: 11 totaling $1,118,007 to $5,299,000
close to a 400 + %

My income didnt go up near that much, did any other californians income go up that much ?
Those that live in glass houses shouldnt!
VOTE HER OUT!!!!!!

ColdWarrior57 on October 14, 2010 at 4:19 PM

When the results come in from the East and Midwest with Republican victories, voters in the west will change to the winners side… Carly by 7%

Wade on October 14, 2010 at 4:14 PM

That’s an interesting point. I wonder if the news networks will be slow to make official calls in any eastern races for exactly that reason. Or they’ll focus on the few high profile Dem victories and ignore the big picture as long as they can.

jwolf on October 14, 2010 at 4:19 PM

and 41% who think it [the job market] hasn’t changed at all.

On a completely unrelated note, around 41% of Californians favor legalizing weed, dude.

VibrioCocci on October 14, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Trigon & LASue, if I had a dollar for every California refugee I’ve met here in Texas over the last 2 years, I could put a pretty decent dent in the Golden State’s deficit myself!

I am giving my out-of-state $ to Carly – seems like I get a fund-raising letter almost every day from her, nothing from anyone else.

Maybe it’s because I’m a shallow woman, but Senator Ma’am and Senator Mom (AKA Patty Murray) are such hideous blights upon my gender, I’d like to see them go the most if only just to get rid of the wretched embarrassment they inflict upon all of us.

leilani on October 14, 2010 at 4:25 PM

Well they probably wouldn’t vote if it weren’t for the legalize marijuana initiative.

sandee on October 14, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Here’s hoping they’re all too stoned to find the voting booth. “What day is it again?”

John the Libertarian on October 14, 2010 at 4:34 PM

Prop 19: The potheads are not running any ads, billboards, bumper stickers, GOTV, or anything. I think it will still pas, but I’m not so sure Prop 19 is going to drive voters out to the polls.

El_Terrible on October 14, 2010 at 4:35 PM

Fiorina needs to step up the campaign another level to push her line of attack.

May I offer Carly a suggestion? Attack this. Scare the hell out of Californians and Americans everywhere. Remind them that this idea was first hatched in California with a big nudge from George Miller (D-CA). Maybe borrow a little Charlton Heston and say, You’ll seize my 401 K out of my cold, dead hands…

Buy Danish on October 14, 2010 at 4:37 PM

“sigh”

Oh well,

“We had to fight a damn war to get California, and we’ll probably have to fight another damn war to get rid of it.”
— William Tecumseh Sherman

PackerBronco on October 14, 2010 at 4:38 PM

Carly’s getting 5 votes from my household. Hopefully she can pull through. If Brown and Boxer win, I’m officially moving out of this godforsaken state.

BJ on October 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM

My husband is threatening the same ‘move’ :-(…I wish a had a more numerous family locally :-)…I could only convince three of our friends to actually register and (hopefully) vote for her…they are conservatives all right but they never bother to vote which drives me crazy…I simply don’t get what’s the difficulty or ‘inconvenience’…

jimver on October 14, 2010 at 4:47 PM

Jerry Brown didn’t help himself with the women. After the whore incident, Whitman laughed his back pocket off the stage. Whitman wins with coattails?

Feedie on October 14, 2010 at 4:47 PM

To win, all Fiorina needs to do is to buy free tacos for anyone going to any Mexican fast food restaurant on election day.

That would be worth three points. They will be so jammed, all of the people waiting in line will be too tired to vote.

And they will mostly be Democrats.

NoDonkey on October 14, 2010 at 4:50 PM

BJ on October 14, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Another conservative Texas immigrant, welcome!

NoDonkey on October 14, 2010 at 4:51 PM

Barack Obama won California by a 24-point margin, 61/37, and still has a 57/42 job approval rating among likely voters.

dude, this is outdated…go to the website of the Public Policy Institute of California and check their latest figures here:

http://www.ppic.org/main/publication.asp?i=959

Go under the ‘Time Trends of Job Approval Ratings’ and click on ‘President Obama’

He sits at 48 (approve) to 48 (disapprove) among likely voters…(Sep 19-26)

And PPIC is no conservative think tnak :-)…it’s as California liberal as it can get..

jimver on October 14, 2010 at 4:54 PM

I can’t say I would pick this race over all others to win, Fiorina is representing a state chock full of fools and she is surrounded by an entire flock of elected liberal dimwits. Can she make a difference, sure, but Cali’s love their disasters and will still turn on her no matter how successful she is.

Bishop on October 14, 2010 at 4:54 PM

I’ve seen a few challengers using the line “XXXX only cares about one job: her own.” Joe Sestak even used this line effectively against Arlen Specter. It’s a great response to the incumbents who have done nothing about the economy in their states, but are now spending millions on harsh negative ads against their challengers. I think Fiorina should hammer this message until Election Day.

The only job Barbara Boxer cares about….is her own.

rockmom on October 14, 2010 at 5:07 PM

Maybe it’s because I’m a shallow woman, but Senator Ma’am and Senator Mom (AKA Patty Murray) are such hideous blights upon my gender, I’d like to see them go the most if only just to get rid of the wretched embarrassment they inflict upon all of us.

leilani on October 14, 2010 at 4:25 PM

+100

Not to mention doubling the IQ of the Senate! Boxer and Murray are the definition of a dumb broad.

rockmom on October 14, 2010 at 5:09 PM

Ed Morrissey: “Fiorina needs to step up the campaign another level to push her line of attack.”

Guess what? I got a fever! And the only prescription.. is more cowbell DEMONSHEEP!

Lockstein13 on October 14, 2010 at 5:14 PM

Fiorina should beat her over the head with this.

Schadenfreude on October 14, 2010 at 5:17 PM

Just donated to Carly. Hope it helps; there’s a lot of good ammo to use against Boxer right now, including the VFW trying to get its PAC to pull the endorsement and the money for terrorists.

LASue on October 14, 2010 at 5:27 PM

After that little problem of people being harrassed and intimidated if they contributed to Proposition causes that the progressives are opposed to, I am guessing that many folks in California are going to lie on random phone polling because they fear for their safety.

slickwillie2001 on October 14, 2010 at 5:34 PM

I think this race is baked in the cake.

Quite frankly, I also think that there are some a$$tard Losertarians here who are going to spoil the broth, as they always do.

Carly should do the counterintuitive thing and do rallies with Palin in base areas. Right now, my thinking is that some “real conservative” people who were considering her aren’t too jazzed right now, and Carly needs to jazz them up. I just don’t see Carly doing the things she needs to do to excite the Base.

Forget Whitman. Whitman’s your typical Establishment Republican that rolls over and plays dead every time the Media and the Left scream “RAAAACISM!!!!” That’s a lost cause. Whitman would lose to Hitler.

In contrast to Whitman, Carly is actually solid on conservatism, and is not afraid to say it. She just needs to demonstrate that.

victor82 on October 14, 2010 at 5:35 PM

The Righties will be taking the gloves off. I have seen it here in Ohio finally after weeks of negative BS by the left.

CWforFreedom on October 14, 2010 at 5:38 PM

Californians who vote absentee received their ballots last week, so early voting has already begun.

The California ballot is extremely long this year, as usual.

My ballot included:

- 13 State offices
- 12 Judicial offices
- 6 Local offices
- 9 State propositions
- 15 Local propositions

We can all help encourage our conservative friends to vote by making the process easier for them.

I am in the process of typing up a list of how I am going to vote on each of the ballot items with a brief explanation of why I made each decision I did. Once I finish the list, I will e-mail it to several friends who have already requested it. Since I include a reason for each decision, people have enough information to decide on their own if they agree or disagree with my decisions.

When I created a similar list for the Primary election I got good feedback on how helpful it was, particularly for my senior citizen friends and a group of relatively recent new citizens who were doing their best to learn about the issues in California.

If we each create a similar list, we can increase the number of conservative voters and help our favorite candidates to win.

It is just one more thing we can all do to make a difference in this important election.

If anybody else has more ideas on how we can help our candidates, let us know.

wren on October 14, 2010 at 6:00 PM

In contrast to Whitman, Carly is actually solid on conservatism, and is not afraid to say it. She just needs to demonstrate that.
victor82 on October 14, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Hope you are right about Carly; while she is much better than boom-boom Boxer, Carly was seen as a RINO, so much so that Palin issued an update to her endorsement. Carly has firmed her image up a lot.

Whitman is weaker, but if she stops digging, a la Arnold, it will be a big improvement. If she turns to Kool-Aid, California still has the recall. Brown is looking bad in a state he helped break; Whitman is laughing with us as Brown destroys himself, so it’s Whitman.

Feedie on October 14, 2010 at 6:02 PM

Boxer has been running a commercial ad nauseum about Fiorina outsourcing jobs. I wish Fiorina would put an ad out explaining basic global economics and Boxer’s own “sins” in outsourcing. Giving that kind of a lesson would possibly take too long for a commercial.

Of course, the idiots in California who voted for Obama will probably show up to legalize marijuana. They will vote for Prop. 19. They will vote for Boxer. They will vote for Jerry Brown. They will be uninformed about anything.

Good grief.

surfhut on October 14, 2010 at 7:45 PM

They lie about polls by five points but cheat by three so….

maverick muse on October 14, 2010 at 8:10 PM

Don’t worry Boxer! Some dead voters, Mickey Mouse, Goofy, and restricting military ballots should give you the win!

jeffersonschild on October 15, 2010 at 2:26 PM