Survey USA: Coons 54, O’Donnell 33

posted at 3:55 pm on October 13, 2010 by Allahpundit

Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?

The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:

Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…

“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.

Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread for the debate coming at around 7 p.m…


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True Conservatives are great believers in the market.

Customer: I don’t like your car.

True conservative; It’s because you are stupid, dumb, and idiotic. I might be living in a red state which are all poor and suck of rich coastal states but by God, I won’t rescue you.

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:41 PM

We don’t support socialists and we don’t care if they come with a Republican label or a Democratic one. If she wins that’s just gravy. If she loses then we have a socialist which is what was going to happen regardless, if the choice was between Castle and Coons.

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:19 PM

Are you going to pay her house rent after the campaign?

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:43 PM

True conservatives are such hypocrites. If their candidates doesn’t win, it’s because one dude said something on TV. Oh wows! Really?

It’s always everyone else’s fault except true conservatives. No wonder these red state guys living off the coastal folks.

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:44 PM

Give it your best shot, O’Donnell, and whatever happens, happens.

notropis on October 13, 2010

Your post is good analysis too. I would only add that committee assignments aren’t just handed out by the Majority Leader. They are negotiated for and often much horse trading goes on to fill the assignments. How much power would a Mike Castle have in negotiating for his allies on key committees with a very narrow majority? Very much I think.

JonPrichard on October 13, 2010 at 6:45 PM

Yes. Your response would have been in “context” had you not ignored the phrase “for example.” How long is this game? I have things to do.

Ronnie on October 13, 2010 at 6:13 PM

I doubt it.

runner on October 13, 2010 at 6:46 PM

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:41 PM

We were not the ones who worked behind the scenes like Rove did to limit the choice Delaware could make. We were not the ones who ordained Castle as ‘The One’ in Delaware and warned off any others who might have run. We were not the ones who attacked the challenger to that GOP ‘order from on high’.

We are not the ones who still attack that choice made by Delaware in the primary.

That would be your team.

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Why even bother publicizing these polls? There hasn’t been one that’s put her anywhere close to single digits and there’s nothing that’s going to happen in the next 3 weeks that’s going to change that.

All that’s left is the election night coverage on MSNBC and CNN telling us all how holding Delaware proves that the Obama Brand is still good, that it’s not really a wave election, tea party overreach, bad for Palin, blah blah blah. The only point to O’Donnell’s candidacy now is to give the Democrats something to gloat over in a few weeks. Hopefully it will be the only thing but I’m sure they’ll take whatever they can get just to have some kind of narrative.

Bennett on October 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM

by God, I won’t rescue you.

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:41 PM

Troll quality is down substantially at HA.

Why would a customer who doesn’t like a “true conservative’s” car need rescuing?

notropis on October 13, 2010 at 6:48 PM

Delaware re-elected Joe Biden to the Senate six times. Would come as no surprise if they elected another lefty, Coons, to the Senate. These are the kind of people Delaware loves and adores. Coons does not even have to spend a dime on ADS, the media is doing it for him. As I said before, I really believe that the Media is on the payroll of the DNC. Christine O’Donnell has joined the ranks of Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann,Sharon Angle in media bashing them. Reason, very attractive women who are conservatives and love American. They prefer the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer or anyone who hates the American Way of Life.

flintstone on October 13, 2010 at 6:51 PM

I never have claimed it was wrong for COD to knock Mike Castle off and I will never revert to that argument to attack COD. I heartily endorsed Palin’s endorsement of COD and I welcomed her victory. Again if there is anyone to blame for O’Donnell’s predicament now I would put 90% on Castle and the Delaware party chairman Tom Ross, Karl Rove and the GOP establishment and the MSM and 10% of COD. I just think this trifecta was too much to overcome especially when 2 out 3 entities are people who were supposed to be in your corner but instead stab you in the back on numerous occasions.

technopeasant on October 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM

We were not the ones who worked behind the scenes like Rove did to limit the choice Delaware could make.
sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:47 PM

Any evidence of that?

Boxy_Brown on October 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Closing in real fast.

But I know it is always better to elect a bearded Marxist who votes against you 110% of the time than to elect a RINO who may vote your way 50-60% of the time.

Let Barry bring onto the bench more of his radical judges so his legacy will live long after his failed term.

bayview on October 13, 2010 at 6:53 PM

Any evidence of that?

Boxy_Brown on October 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM

Not that you are actually interested in the truth, but…

http://freedomist.com/2010/09/14/exclusive-karl-rove-tried-to-cut-deal-for-castle-with-tea-party-teaparty-news/

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Can’t block SCOTUS nominees under those conditions.

JohnGalt23 on October 13, 2010 at 6:19 PM

We could block them now if Republicans would stop giving consent.

Ronnie on October 13, 2010 at 6:31 PM

I’m going to put this to you exactly the way I put it to Democrats in 2005:

SCOTUS nominees are constitutional officers. The POTUS is entitled to a vote, as per the Advice and Consent Clause, on his appointments to the SCOTUS. For you to suggest that SCOTUS nominees should be subject to filibuster is wrong, and it is foolish. It is playing with constitutional fire, and will fight you tooth and nail on it.

That’s what I said to Democrats. I’m quite sure many of us here said the same thing. Now, it is time to hold ourselves and our party to the same standards, or admit that we are the rankest of hypocrites.

JohnGalt23 on October 13, 2010 at 6:57 PM

flintstone on October 13, 2010 at 6:51 PM

Conservatives attack the MSM, but many don’t even realize how hostile to local press can be in Blue states.

I’m a conservative from Mass. The local affiliates are actually worse the the major networks.

Again, its a dynamic that amateur internet activists who try to influence Blue states from afar know little.

swamp_yankee on October 13, 2010 at 6:59 PM

I hate to see COD have to depend on the hacks at CNN for a debate. I wonder if she held out for a more objective venue and lost? How long ago do you think Coons got the questions?

Coons doesn’t really have to agree to a debate because of his lead.

slickwillie2001 on October 13, 2010 at 7:01 PM

Are there any two people more influential in Delaware politics than Karl Rove or Charles Krauthammer?

YYZ on October 13, 2010 at 5:43 PM

Really hope that’s a joke.

That you have to ask tells you something about some of the comments on this thread.

YYZ on October 13, 2010 at 7:05 PM

JohnGalt23 on October 13, 2010 at 6:57 PM

Then if they’re all going to make it through Committee, I don’t see how a Castle vote helps us block judges.

Ronnie on October 13, 2010 at 7:11 PM

The Rinos think a COD loss will be an I told you so event. what they fail to grasp we already won. Castle the RINO is not in the race. the GOP has one less RINO regardless of if COD wins, loses or ties. The TEA PARTY already won and they will continue to win because they will not allow RINOs on the ballot in the general.

unseen on October 13, 2010 at 5:42 PM

This.

Aitch748 on October 13, 2010 at 7:21 PM

Not that you are actually interested in the truth, but…

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:56 PM

Looks like he really didn’t want to lose that seat to the democrats. Oh well…

Boxy_Brown on October 13, 2010 at 7:34 PM

It’s because you are stupid, dumb, and idiotic. I might be living in a red state which are all poor and suck of rich coastal states but by God, I won’t rescue you.

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:41 PM

You’re ignorant. Go to the poor states. Most of the poor and dumb are Dems. But don’t let me ruin your narrative.

CWforFreedom on October 13, 2010 at 7:43 PM

It’s always everyone else’s fault except true conservatives. No wonder these red state guys living off the coastal folks.

rightistliberal on October 13, 2010 at 6:44 PM

You are really whacked. You do realize that there are plenty of cons in Cali and NY or do you like your lame ignorant games better?

CWforFreedom on October 13, 2010 at 7:45 PM

Not that you are actually interested in the truth, but…

http://freedomist.com/2010/09/14/exclusive-karl-rove-tried-to-cut-deal-for-castle-with-tea-party-teaparty-news/

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 6:56 PM

LOL “sources at the O’Donnell victory party said”

that’s all you got?

Rove may have met with De TP but unamed sources at

windansea on October 13, 2010 at 8:15 PM

Rove may have met with De TP but unamed sources at

windansea on October 13, 2010 at 8:15 PM

They are not unnamed. This is the video.

http://www.therightscoop.com/karl-rove-secretly-tried-to-help-castle-win

sharrukin on October 13, 2010 at 8:18 PM

I never have claimed it was wrong for COD to knock Mike Castle off and I will never revert to that argument to attack COD.

technopeasant on October 13, 2010 at 6:52 PM

I didn’t mean to imply that you had. I was just using your analysis as a jumping off point to address all those who are faulting the Delaware Republicans for exercising their preference.

notropis on October 13, 2010 at 9:16 PM

At least according to this guy,

LOL, her campaign manager or an extra from hee-haw? This guy says that Rove wanted someone who was electable… Oh well.

Rove secretly called a meeting

With that guy? Because he makes all the decisions?

…with the Delaware Tea Party to try and talk them into supporting the Party…or in this case Castle:

Well Christine O’Donnell and Barack Obama have something else in common (besides running up big bills that they just walk away from) They re both running against Karl Rove.

Boxy_Brown on October 14, 2010 at 9:50 AM

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