Could Democrats have had a month worse than August?

When I made my last update, I wrote that I didn’t think that the high rate of decline Democrats we were seeing at the time would continue, simply because races tighten and at some point a party gradually reaches a bottom.

Instead, Democrats have blown through the electoral floor.

At this time last month, 44 Democrat seats were rated toss up. Today, there are 52 — a level I didn’t think Democrats would reach until election day. The firewall to preserve the Democrat majority is gone, and the second firewall, incredibly deep into the caucus, is now failing.

That’s Seat 81 which was acting as a second bulwark, pretty much capping our known universe of attainable seats. That universe has now been opened wide. (See: Congressman of over a half-century John Dingell) I’m not asserting Republicans will win every race in whatever electoral universe we’re talking about, or that Republicans won’t lose seats (Cao’s LA-2 seat isn’t looking good.) But, I am asserting that Republicans will win a majority of them, and a fair number of them unexpectedly. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report tweeted this after announcing his race updates:

There are 51 incumbent Dems who have trailed in at least 1 public or private poll, the most we’ve ever seen in Cook history

And that’s with one month out.

What we’re seeing here is historic movement. Cook’s official prediction of 40+ seats aside, based on its past predictions in wave elections, it seems like they’re really predicting something between 49 and 65 seats going to the GOP. That rough estimate jibes with my impression of the race, as well. My last prediction was 57-60 seats; I’m raising it to 60-63. That could change if newer polling shows a tightening of races, but given the deficit of polling for a lot of these seats, the Republican lead on the generic ballot (see also: Swingometer), the unemployment numbers, and Obama’s steadily degrading poll numbers, and it’s harder to see by what or whose saving grace Democrats will avoid a complete meltdown in the House. Republican and Tea Party activists have to act to make it happen by calling friends, going door to door, volunteering and voting, and if they do, this has the makings of a mind-blowing Nov. 2.

The latest rankings, with percentage likelihood of a GOP win. Press CTRL-F to search the list.

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