When I made my last update, I wrote that I didn’t think that the high rate of decline Democrats we were seeing at the time would continue, simply because races tighten and at some point a party gradually reaches a bottom.

Instead, Democrats have blown through the electoral floor.

At this time last month, 44 Democrat seats were rated toss up. Today, there are 52 — a level I didn’t think Democrats would reach until election day. The firewall to preserve the Democrat majority is gone, and the second firewall, incredibly deep into the caucus, is now failing.

That’s Seat 81 which was acting as a second bulwark, pretty much capping our known universe of attainable seats. That universe has now been opened wide. (See: Congressman of over a half-century John Dingell) I’m not asserting Republicans will win every race in whatever electoral universe we’re talking about, or that Republicans won’t lose seats (Cao’s LA-2 seat isn’t looking good.) But, I am asserting that Republicans will win a majority of them, and a fair number of them unexpectedly. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report tweeted this after announcing his race updates:

There are 51 incumbent Dems who have trailed in at least 1 public or private poll, the most we’ve ever seen in Cook history

And that’s with one month out.

What we’re seeing here is historic movement. Cook’s official prediction of 40+ seats aside, based on its past predictions in wave elections, it seems like they’re really predicting something between 49 and 65 seats going to the GOP. That rough estimate jibes with my impression of the race, as well. My last prediction was 57-60 seats; I’m raising it to 60-63. That could change if newer polling shows a tightening of races, but given the deficit of polling for a lot of these seats, the Republican lead on the generic ballot (see also: Swingometer), the unemployment numbers, and Obama’s steadily degrading poll numbers, and it’s harder to see by what or whose saving grace Democrats will avoid a complete meltdown in the House. Republican and Tea Party activists have to act to make it happen by calling friends, going door to door, volunteering and voting, and if they do, this has the makings of a mind-blowing Nov. 2.

The latest rankings, with percentage likelihood of a GOP win. Press CTRL-F to search the list.

District Dem incumbent GOP to take?
1 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) 86.67%
2 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) 86.67%
3 NY-29 OPEN 80.00%
4 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) 76.67%
5 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth) 73.33%
6 TX-17 Chet Edwards 73.33%
7 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 70.00%
8 KS-3 OPEN (Moore) 70.00%
9 MD-1 Frank Kratovil 70.00%
10 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) 70.00%
11 CO-4 Betsy Markey 66.67%
12 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas 66.67%
13 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson 66.67%
14 MS-1 Travis Childers 66.67%
15 AR-1 OPEN (Berry) 63.33%
16 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy 63.33%
17 OH-1 Steve Driehaus 63.33%
18 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy 63.33%
19 VA-2 Glenn Nye 63.33%
20 VA-5 Tom Perriello 63.33%
21 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) 60.00%
22 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) 60.00%
23 NM-2 Harry Teague 60.00%
24 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper 60.00%
25 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 60.00%
26 WA-3 OPEN (Baird) 60.00%
27 AL-2 Bobby Bright 56.67%
28 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 56.67%
29 FL-2 Allen Boyd 56.67%
30 FL-8 Alan Grayson 56.67%
31 IN-9 Baron Hill 56.67%
32 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter 56.67%
33 OH-16 John Boccieri 56.67%
34 PA-10 Chris Carney 56.67%
35 SC-5 John Spratt 56.67%
36 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan 56.67%
37 GA-8 Jim Marshall 53.33%
38 MI-7 Mark Schauer 53.33%
39 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 53.33%
40 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) 53.33%
41 PA-8 Patrick Murphy 53.33%
42 WI-7 OPEN 53.33%
43 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 50.00%
44 IL-14 Bill Foster 50.00%
45 MO-4 Ike Skelton 50.00%
46 NC-8 Larry Kissell 50.00%
47 NV-3 Dina Titus 50.00%
48 NY-19 John Hall 50.00%
49 NY-24 Michael Arcuri 50.00%
50 OH-18 Zack Space 50.00%
51 VA-9 Rick Boucher 50.00%
52 WI-8 Steve Kagen 50.00%
53 CA-11 Jerry McNerney 46.67%
54 CO-3 John Salazar 46.67%
55 ID-1 Walter Minnick 46.67%
56 KY-6 Ben Chandler 46.67%
57 TN-4 Lincoln Davis 46.67%
58 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez 46.67%
59 IA-3 Leonard Boswell 43.33%
60 NJ-3 John Adler 43.33%
61 NY-23 Bill Owens 43.33%
62 FL-22 Ron Klein 40.00%
63 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr. 40.00%
64 IL-17 Phil Hare 40.00%
65 NC-11 Heath Shuler 40.00%
66 OR-5 Kurt Schrader 40.00%
67 PA-12 Critz 40.00%
68 IN-2 Joe Donnelly 36.67%
69 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) 36.67%
70 MI-9 Gary Peters 36.67%
71 MS-4 Gene Taylor 36.67%
72 NC-7 Mike McIntyre 36.67%
73 NM-1 Martin Heinrich 36.67%
74 NY-1 Tim Bishop 36.67%
75 NY-13 Mike McMahon 36.67%
76 NY-20 Scott Murphy 36.67%
77 VA-11 Gerald Connolly 36.67%
78 WV-3 Nick Rahall 36.67%
79 CT-4 Jim Himes 33.33%
80 OH-13 Betty Sutton 33.33%
81 PA-17 Tim Holden 33.33%
82 PA-4 Jason Altmire 33.33%
83 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez 30.00%
84 CT-5 Christopher Murphy 30.00%
85 NY-25 Dan Maffei 30.00%
86 WA-2 Rick Larsen 30.00%
87 IA-2 Loebsack 26.67%
88 MN-1 Tim Walz 26.67%
89 NC-2 Bob Etheridge 26.67%
90 UT-2 Jim Matheson 26.67%
91 WI-3 Ron Kind 26.67%
92 AR-4 Mike Ross 23.33%
93 CA-20 Jim Costa 23.33%
94 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 23.33%
95 IL-8 Melissa Bean 23.33%
96 KY-3 John Yarmuth 23.33%
97 OH-6 Charlie Wilson 23.33%
98 OK-2 Dan Boren 23.33%
99 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 20.00%
100 ME-2 Michaud 20.00%
101 GA-12 John Barrow 16.67%
102 IA-1 Bruce Braley 16.67%
103 MN-7 Peterson 16.67%
104 NJ-12 Rush Holt 16.67%
105 RI-1 Kennedy 16.67%
106 WA-9 Adam Smith 16.67%
107 ME-1 Chellie Pingree 13.33%
108 OR-1 David Wu 13.33%
109 OR-4 DeFazio 13.33%
110 TN-5 Cooper 13.33%
111 TX-27 Solomon Ortiz 13.33%
112 MA-5 Tsongas 10.00%
113 MO-3 Russ Carnahan 10.00%
114 NM-3 Ben R. Luján 10.00%
115 MA-6 John F. Tierney 6.67%
116 MI-15 Dingell 6.67%
117 NC-4 Price 6.67%
118 NJ-6 Pallone 6.67%
119 NY-22 Hinchey 6.67%
120 NY-4 McCarthy 6.67%
121 MA-4 Barney Frank 3.33%
122 MS-2 Thompson 3.33%
123 OH-9 Kaptur 3.33%
124 CA-39 Sanchez 0.00%

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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