Could Democrats have had a month worse than August?

posted at 6:30 pm on October 9, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael

When I made my last update, I wrote that I didn’t think that the high rate of decline Democrats we were seeing at the time would continue, simply because races tighten and at some point a party gradually reaches a bottom.

Instead, Democrats have blown through the electoral floor.

At this time last month, 44 Democrat seats were rated toss up. Today, there are 52 — a level I didn’t think Democrats would reach until election day. The firewall to preserve the Democrat majority is gone, and the second firewall, incredibly deep into the caucus, is now failing.

That’s Seat 81 which was acting as a second bulwark, pretty much capping our known universe of attainable seats. That universe has now been opened wide. (See: Congressman of over a half-century John Dingell) I’m not asserting Republicans will win every race in whatever electoral universe we’re talking about, or that Republicans won’t lose seats (Cao’s LA-2 seat isn’t looking good.) But, I am asserting that Republicans will win a majority of them, and a fair number of them unexpectedly. Dave Wasserman at the Cook Report tweeted this after announcing his race updates:

There are 51 incumbent Dems who have trailed in at least 1 public or private poll, the most we’ve ever seen in Cook history

And that’s with one month out.

What we’re seeing here is historic movement. Cook’s official prediction of 40+ seats aside, based on its past predictions in wave elections, it seems like they’re really predicting something between 49 and 65 seats going to the GOP. That rough estimate jibes with my impression of the race, as well. My last prediction was 57-60 seats; I’m raising it to 60-63. That could change if newer polling shows a tightening of races, but given the deficit of polling for a lot of these seats, the Republican lead on the generic ballot (see also: Swingometer), the unemployment numbers, and Obama’s steadily degrading poll numbers, and it’s harder to see by what or whose saving grace Democrats will avoid a complete meltdown in the House. Republican and Tea Party activists have to act to make it happen by calling friends, going door to door, volunteering and voting, and if they do, this has the makings of a mind-blowing Nov. 2.

The latest rankings, with percentage likelihood of a GOP win. Press CTRL-F to search the list.

District Dem incumbent GOP to take?
1 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) 86.67%
2 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon) 86.67%
3 NY-29 OPEN 80.00%
4 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder) 76.67%
5 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth) 73.33%
6 TX-17 Chet Edwards 73.33%
7 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick 70.00%
8 KS-3 OPEN (Moore) 70.00%
9 MD-1 Frank Kratovil 70.00%
10 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner) 70.00%
11 CO-4 Betsy Markey 66.67%
12 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas 66.67%
13 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson 66.67%
14 MS-1 Travis Childers 66.67%
15 AR-1 OPEN (Berry) 63.33%
16 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy 63.33%
17 OH-1 Steve Driehaus 63.33%
18 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy 63.33%
19 VA-2 Glenn Nye 63.33%
20 VA-5 Tom Perriello 63.33%
21 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak) 60.00%
22 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes) 60.00%
23 NM-2 Harry Teague 60.00%
24 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper 60.00%
25 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 60.00%
26 WA-3 OPEN (Baird) 60.00%
27 AL-2 Bobby Bright 56.67%
28 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell 56.67%
29 FL-2 Allen Boyd 56.67%
30 FL-8 Alan Grayson 56.67%
31 IN-9 Baron Hill 56.67%
32 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter 56.67%
33 OH-16 John Boccieri 56.67%
34 PA-10 Chris Carney 56.67%
35 SC-5 John Spratt 56.67%
36 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan 56.67%
37 GA-8 Jim Marshall 53.33%
38 MI-7 Mark Schauer 53.33%
39 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski 53.33%
40 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak) 53.33%
41 PA-8 Patrick Murphy 53.33%
42 WI-7 OPEN 53.33%
43 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords 50.00%
44 IL-14 Bill Foster 50.00%
45 MO-4 Ike Skelton 50.00%
46 NC-8 Larry Kissell 50.00%
47 NV-3 Dina Titus 50.00%
48 NY-19 John Hall 50.00%
49 NY-24 Michael Arcuri 50.00%
50 OH-18 Zack Space 50.00%
51 VA-9 Rick Boucher 50.00%
52 WI-8 Steve Kagen 50.00%
53 CA-11 Jerry McNerney 46.67%
54 CO-3 John Salazar 46.67%
55 ID-1 Walter Minnick 46.67%
56 KY-6 Ben Chandler 46.67%
57 TN-4 Lincoln Davis 46.67%
58 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez 46.67%
59 IA-3 Leonard Boswell 43.33%
60 NJ-3 John Adler 43.33%
61 NY-23 Bill Owens 43.33%
62 FL-22 Ron Klein 40.00%
63 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr. 40.00%
64 IL-17 Phil Hare 40.00%
65 NC-11 Heath Shuler 40.00%
66 OR-5 Kurt Schrader 40.00%
67 PA-12 Critz 40.00%
68 IN-2 Joe Donnelly 36.67%
69 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt) 36.67%
70 MI-9 Gary Peters 36.67%
71 MS-4 Gene Taylor 36.67%
72 NC-7 Mike McIntyre 36.67%
73 NM-1 Martin Heinrich 36.67%
74 NY-1 Tim Bishop 36.67%
75 NY-13 Mike McMahon 36.67%
76 NY-20 Scott Murphy 36.67%
77 VA-11 Gerald Connolly 36.67%
78 WV-3 Nick Rahall 36.67%
79 CT-4 Jim Himes 33.33%
80 OH-13 Betty Sutton 33.33%
81 PA-17 Tim Holden 33.33%
82 PA-4 Jason Altmire 33.33%
83 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez 30.00%
84 CT-5 Christopher Murphy 30.00%
85 NY-25 Dan Maffei 30.00%
86 WA-2 Rick Larsen 30.00%
87 IA-2 Loebsack 26.67%
88 MN-1 Tim Walz 26.67%
89 NC-2 Bob Etheridge 26.67%
90 UT-2 Jim Matheson 26.67%
91 WI-3 Ron Kind 26.67%
92 AR-4 Mike Ross 23.33%
93 CA-20 Jim Costa 23.33%
94 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter 23.33%
95 IL-8 Melissa Bean 23.33%
96 KY-3 John Yarmuth 23.33%
97 OH-6 Charlie Wilson 23.33%
98 OK-2 Dan Boren 23.33%
99 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza 20.00%
100 ME-2 Michaud 20.00%
101 GA-12 John Barrow 16.67%
102 IA-1 Bruce Braley 16.67%
103 MN-7 Peterson 16.67%
104 NJ-12 Rush Holt 16.67%
105 RI-1 Kennedy 16.67%
106 WA-9 Adam Smith 16.67%
107 ME-1 Chellie Pingree 13.33%
108 OR-1 David Wu 13.33%
109 OR-4 DeFazio 13.33%
110 TN-5 Cooper 13.33%
111 TX-27 Solomon Ortiz 13.33%
112 MA-5 Tsongas 10.00%
113 MO-3 Russ Carnahan 10.00%
114 NM-3 Ben R. Luján 10.00%
115 MA-6 John F. Tierney 6.67%
116 MI-15 Dingell 6.67%
117 NC-4 Price 6.67%
118 NJ-6 Pallone 6.67%
119 NY-22 Hinchey 6.67%
120 NY-4 McCarthy 6.67%
121 MA-4 Barney Frank 3.33%
122 MS-2 Thompson 3.33%
123 OH-9 Kaptur 3.33%
124 CA-39 Sanchez 0.00%

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Yes, this November.

Emperor Norton on October 9, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Emperor Norton on October 9, 2010 at 6:32 PM

You beat me to it.
November 2nd will be glorious.

kingsjester on October 9, 2010 at 6:34 PM

Catch a wave and you’re sitting on top of the world

Cookies Mom on October 9, 2010 at 6:36 PM

Instead, Democrats have blown threw the electoral floor.

Uh….I think that should be “through the electoral floor.”

Sorry….I’m a teacher.

4Freedom on October 9, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Wife beater corruptocrat Jim Moran isn’t on the list. Va-8. New polls have him at 50-50. The list has Connelly Va 11 at 36% but it’s more like 51. How old is this list? It’s got hare IL 17 at gop 40 and he is behind in the polls. I supposed you included dem voter fraud into your percentages?

Haunches on October 9, 2010 at 6:43 PM


Demoralized Democrat Doom of the Valley of Political Tears
of Regret of December!!!

canopfor on October 9, 2010 at 6:45 PM

Come on November!

GarandFan on October 9, 2010 at 6:48 PM

Yes, this November.

Emperor Norton on October 9, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Yepper. Worse than August.

petefrt on October 9, 2010 at 6:50 PM

4Freedom on October 9, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Ack! That’s what I get for multitasking while blogging.

Patrick Ishmael on October 9, 2010 at 6:52 PM

The call of November 2 – WOLVERINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ladyingray on October 9, 2010 at 6:53 PM

I am so happy to see AZ 1 in the top 10. I only wish AZ 5 Harry Mitchell were higher up. Perhaps soon. Perhaps.

azkag on October 9, 2010 at 6:59 PM

I don’t know about the Democrats, but everything has been downhill for me since January 2009.

Tommy_G on October 9, 2010 at 7:18 PM

OH-9 is in play, according to the swell of activity I’ve seen. And this article shows it at a paltry 3.33%.

If that’s true, there might be some might unexpected activity on November 2.

Bigurn on October 9, 2010 at 7:22 PM

might=mighty (the second one)

I’ll blame that on Michigan, too.

Bigurn on October 9, 2010 at 7:23 PM

So,it appears,or it would seem,that Team HopeLess/ChangeLess
has driven the Democrat Party,and the Hope and Dreams of the
Progressives,into the DITCH for AUGUST,and on a roll,

over zee clift,for November!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on October 9, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Uh….I think that should be “through the electoral floor.”

Sorry….I’m a teacher.

4Freedom on October 9, 2010 at 6:42 PM

No, you’re correct.

“Threw” means someone has tossed a object. “Through” is a prepositional phrase meaning to go between two objects or in and out of a object.

Conservative Samizdat on October 9, 2010 at 9:08 PM

These are some statistics I can live with. :)

August-October may be bad for the dems, but November’s going to ROCK for the country!

Bob's Kid on October 9, 2010 at 9:39 PM

Nice work, Patrick.

I’m still going with 80 in the House and 11 in the Senate. At first that seemed really on the edge but now I’m thinking 100 is the “out there” bet. ;)

Missy on October 9, 2010 at 10:32 PM

It’s all Barry’s fault. He has made more people aware of what’s happening in politics.In 2008 he work up a sleeping giant and promised it the world.After 2 yrs the Giant has seen that it got screwed and it is pissed.

BruceB on October 9, 2010 at 11:28 PM

The ‘October Surprise’ is that all the previous trends continue and the incumbents are flailing in the Democratic Party. Even a city disappearing off the map will not help that, and only make matters worse as the ones in power will be seen as incapable and culpable.

And they are both. It will be interesting to see what few of the Incumbistani return this time and how many will not want to face this electorate ever again. This is a new era in American politics dawning and the American people are adapting faster than their politicians.

ajacksonian on October 10, 2010 at 12:33 AM

azkag on October 9, 2010 at 6:59 PM

The only problem is that Gosar is taking the rural conservatives for granted in the north eastern part of the district. I’m beginning to hear rumblings about a backlash towards him if he stays down south campaigning.

chemman on October 10, 2010 at 12:41 AM

I live in TX-17, and that 73% figure is very good news, indeed! How were these odds compiled?

Alexander on October 10, 2010 at 1:58 AM

Cya Dingy Harry–Wouldn’t wanna be ya. Oh wait, you have the offshore bank account and Barry will probably give you a job too. Nevermind..

tbear44 on October 10, 2010 at 6:06 AM

Cao is no loss.

Valiant on October 10, 2010 at 10:25 AM

Too bad the MSM cannot be un-elected also. Their dishonest propagandizing should be punished much more cruelly than by broadcasting them sobbing on Election night, but we’ll have to settle for that until we can starve the despicable vermin.

drunyan8315 on October 10, 2010 at 1:13 PM