Poll shocker of the day: Dingell at 39% in Michigan?

posted at 10:12 am on October 8, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Michigan’s 15th CD has had a John Dingell in Congress since before most of its constituents were born, first with FDR’s inauguration in 1933 with John Sr., and then since 1955 with the current Representative, John Jr.  Now, according to a new poll reported by the Detroit Free Press, the “Dingell seat” may be going back to the people of MI-15.  Not only does Dingell trail in a survey of 300 likely voters in the district, he’s below 40%:

A new independent poll has the dean of the U.S. House, Rep. John Dingell, trailing his Republican opponent, Rob Steele, by 4 percentage points.

The automated phone survey of 300 people in the 15th Congressional District showed Steele getting 43.8% of the vote. Dingell, a Dearborn Democrat and the longest-serving member of Congress, got 39.5%. About 11% were undecided. The gap is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The poll was conducted Monday.

Dingell’s campaign said the survey — conducted by the Rossman Group of Lansing and Team TelCom — is a Republican front and is contradicted by other polls in recent weeks.

Team TelCom’s president Gary Reed has Republican ties, but Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of the Rossman Group, has Democratic roots.

A sample of 300 is a little on the small side even for a House district poll, which is why the MOE is so high.  Even with that, though, Dingell still doesn’t get past 45%.  For an incumbent in office for 55 years — a stunning 28 terms in office for a seat handed to him by his father — that’s a big red flag that this seat could easily flip in less than four weeks.  His district knows him too well to buy any new arguments for his continued presence in Congress, and apparently they have warmed up to Rob Steele.  Having Steele ahead is certainly newsworthy, but the bigger takeaway here is just how badly Dingell polls in this race after almost 56 years in Washington.

Why?  In part, Michigan’s economic woes play into the national anti-incumbent mood.  The state has followed the same kind of economic plan that Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama have tried to implement on a national scale, and they’ve been doing it longer.  Michigan voters can see the end game even more clearly than voters nationwide, and it’s no surprise that Michigan might clean House in three weeks.  Part of it, though, is Dingell himself, who has a habit of saying foolish things, and saying them on national TV.

The Blog Prof wonders what it means when Dingell’s seat is no longer safe:

If Dingell isn’t safe in Detroit, is any Democrat safe anywhere?

Michigan’s 15th CD is a D+13 district, so the short answer is … perhaps, but in far fewer districts than they may have imagined.


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Comment pages: 1 2

anyone remember whn Dingell went all bigot? I do. If you have never seen Who Killed Vincent Chin? I recommend it. About a Chinese man celebrating his bachelor night when he was brutally murdered by drunk UAW worker who blamed him for Japanese people ‘taking his job’. He was found not guilty. Then in OH where at that time they didnt get how it was a race crime b/c OH didnt have GM workers wigging about Japanese cars, the jury found him not guilty again.

His mother who came to America for freedom went back to China with no justice served.

Dingell mouthed off quite a bit then about Asians. A really sickening human being Dingell is IMO.

ginaswo on October 8, 2010 at 1:45 PM

America MUST rid itself of these family-dynasty candidates / congressmen. They are destroying this nation with their progressive BS.

rayra on October 8, 2010 at 1:57 PM

CYA Grayson

CWforFreedom on October 8, 2010 at 2:02 PM

Remember John Dingell in “It’s Playtime“?

mrt721 on October 8, 2010 at 2:02 PM

After Obama and Pelosi colluded to strip him from his chairmanship and dignity you would think he would just go away and not have run for re-election. His down river district is largely blue collar and especially hit by this economy.

Goodale on October 8, 2010 at 2:04 PM

The Free Press is the most liberal paper in the area and a shill for Democrats. Their going with and printing this poll bodes for a real drubbing for Democrats in Michigan this year.

Goodale on October 8, 2010 at 2:19 PM

anyone remember whn Dingell went all bigot? I do. If you have never seen Who Killed Vincent Chin? I recommend it.

ginaswo on October 8, 2010 at 1:45 PM

Thanks for the recommendation. I just searched Netflix for the title, but they don’t have it.

Do you know where I can find it?

UltimateBob on October 8, 2010 at 2:22 PM

What a weird state Michigan seems to be. I’ve just been reading about it’s medical marijuana experiences. Don’t really know that much about it, but I do know that it’s been beat down by the Unions to the point of no return and still continues to vote in the Party that let that happen and repeatedly does so. Again—seems a very weird state. Not alone though, RI follows same pattern. Perhaps they just might opt to do something different this time? In RI, which I know well, you hear things like ‘we’ve been Democrats for 3(or4)generations’–and when you point out just where that’s landed them they seem not to grasp the connection. One of the reasons I no longer live there.

jeanie on October 8, 2010 at 2:33 PM

No tongue this time, OK John?

- Nancy

pain train on October 8, 2010 at 3:15 PM

I live in Dingell’s District, and to be honest, this is classic Reagan Democrat country. Johnny has gotten by by playing to the many union workers here while being steadfastly pro-gun, but it looks like that might no be enough to save him this time around.

holygoat on October 8, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Thanks for the recommendation. I just searched Netflix for the title, but they don’t have it.

Do you know where I can find it?

UltimateBob on October 8, 2010 at 2:22 PM

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096440/

Should have where you can rent it from, I believe…..

dmh0667 on October 8, 2010 at 4:39 PM

Comment pages: 1 2