PPP: Obama crashing in blue states

posted at 2:55 pm on October 7, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama isn’t just having problems in red or purple states in this midterm cycle, as it happens.  Public Policy Polling, usually seen as a Democratic-leaning pollster, says that even in states Obama won big in 2008, his numbers have sunk dramatically this year.  In a dozen blue states that Obama won by nine points or more in his presidential election, his approval numbers are underwater in nine:

One of the most amazing things in our polling over the last month has been how dreadfully bad Barack Obama’s approval numbers are with likely voters in a lot of states that he won by large margins in 2008. We’ve polled 12 states since the beginning of September that Obama won by at least 9 points and in all but 3 of those states- Hawaii, California, and New York- his numbers are under water.

The states where we do now find Obama with negative numbers that he won easily in 2008- Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Connecticut, Colorado, and Illinois.

In the places where the bulk of likely voters disapprove of Obama it’s not very hard to see the contribution that’s making to tough Democratic prospects this fall. Democrats at this point are favored to lose Governorships in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Maine. Illinois and even New Hampshire are possible losses as well. The party is also favored to lose its Senate in Wisconsin, could lose them in Illinois and Colorado, looks like it will miss out on a once bright pick up opportunity in New Hampshire, and had to be bailed out by the Tea Party in Delaware.

Of course, we’re seeing that in Nevada as well, a state not mentioned by PPP, although they perhaps have not done a state-wide poll there yet that shows Obama underwater.  Nevadans elected Barack Obama by almost 13 points but now have his approval rating at 48/51 in Rasmussen’s latest survey, a little better than his national average but still underwater.  Nevada has two statewide races apparently affected by Obama’s popularity, at least in part — the Senate race where Harry Reid has never gotten to the 50% number that usually indicates safety for an incumbent, and a gubernatorial race that Reid’s son Rory is losing so badly that Rory dropped the family name from his advertising.

None of these changes are exactly subtle, either.  New Hampshire has the smallest change in the gap, going from a +9 in the 2008 election to a -8 in PPP’s poll.  Kelly Ayotte has a good grasp on the Senate race there, and Carol Shea-Porter has a fight on her hands with Frank Guinta for her House seat.  In Wisconsin, Obama’s diving nunbers have all but driven a stake through the heart of Russ Feingold’s re-election bid and threatens a sweep of other statewide races, including the open governor’s seat.  Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008 but now has a 41/54 approval rating for a swing of 27 points in just two years.

The bigger implications from this analysis, though, is for 2012 rather than 2010.  If the economy does not improve over the next year, and hardly anyone predicts it will, then unemployment will go higher and dissatisfaction will rise even in these normally blue states.  The Democratic Party may have to ask itself whether they can afford to have Barack Obama lead the party in the 2012 elections, or whether they need a change to restore confidence in their ability to govern.  Otherwise, with the large number of incumbent Senators having to stand for re-election in that cycle, the tsunami that will engulf the House this cycle may return with greater force in 2012 and take almost everyone out of office.  Democrats cannot compete if Obama comes into that cycle with a -13 in Wisconsin, -5 in Illinois, and -12 in Michigan.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Let’s not get to cocky. We all still have to show up and vote on Nov 3.

And the more committed we are the more of a tsunami it will be.

Hawaii 5-0: Da Ta Da Da Da Dahhh!

SayNo2-O on October 7, 2010 at 3:15 PM

Did it. Early voting here. Straight R down the line, including judges. Fingers crossed Kook-Cinich with be history on Nov. 2.

GrannyDee on October 7, 2010 at 5:38 PM

“I won”

“I’m your president”

“Everybody knows who I am”

Schadenfreude on October 7, 2010 at 5:38 PM

fasterfasterfaster……………
.
.
.
November is going to be a bambalanche!!!!!!!!!!!

RealMc on October 7, 2010 at 5:41 PM

It can happen here.

Harry Schell on October 7, 2010 at 5:14 PM

Tyranny can definately happen here. And with dumbed-down voters who make decisions based on name recognition, the U.S. is ripe for tyranny.

But we have to fight against it in every single election for every office at the Federal, State and Local level.

The bigger the Conservative victory on November 2, the more likely we can successfully fight back the tyrants.

Even if a Conservative doesn’t ultimately win a particular seat we need to get them enough votes to scare the wits out of the liberals. The liberals should never have the luxury of thinking their seat is safe.

Now we ALL need to get to work to EARN our victories!

wren on October 7, 2010 at 5:42 PM

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to Giannulous (sp?) numbers when Obama finishes campaigning for him… Feingold dropped by 3 points in WI.

Queen0fCups on October 7, 2010 at 5:42 PM

Let’s not get to cocky. We all still have to show up and vote on Nov 3.

And the more committed we are the more of a tsunami it will be.

Hawaii 5-0: Da Ta Da Da Da Dahhh!

SayNo2-O on October 7, 2010 at 3:15 PM

Did it. Early voting here. Straight R down the line, including judges. Fingers crossed Kook-Cinich with be history on Nov. 2.

GrannyDee on October 7, 2010 at 5:38 PM

Ooops, should have read SayNo2-O’s post a bit better. Need to brush up on my speed reading skills.

GrannyDee on October 7, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Queen0fCups on October 7, 2010 at 5:42 PM

Giannoulias? Fuggedaboudit.

slickwillie2001 on October 7, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Our trust fund offered 2 Billion to several Countries to arrange safe haven for won after the election. All but one said Hell no. The other pointed out at the rate he blows through cash 90 to 120 days would be the max to keep him.
We bought Canadian dollars instead and will encourage won to golf more. We tried,we really tried.
2 November we vote and he flees the country on the 4Th, can not wait for gibseys spin on the trip.

Col.John Wm. Reed on October 7, 2010 at 6:06 PM

jwolf, I didn’t realize that death was a disqualifier in Illinois. In fact, I thought that death increased both the likelyhood and the frequency of exercising one’s right to vote in Illinois.

georgeofthedesert on October 8, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Comment pages: 1 2