Democratic firewall shows fear of GOP wave’s amplitude

posted at 1:36 pm on October 7, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Democrats have begun bragging that Barack Obama and other party leaders have begun energizing their base and ramping up GOTV efforts, pronouncing that they will hold the House and Senate, and that January 2011 will see advancements on the Pelosi-Obama agenda.  Their money speaks louder than their words, however, as Reid Wilson reports at Hotline.  Democrats have begun retrenching by cutting off ad buys in districts previously thought competitive and started showering money on incumbents previously thought safe:

The majority party is slowly starting to open its checkbook, spending millions of dollars on hard-hitting advertisements and mail campaigns aimed at undermining Republicans around the country. But the districts in which it is advertising were once considered safe, indicating that it is Republicans who have had the most success in putting seats in play.

This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running ads in seats held by Reps. Bill Delahunt (Mass.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Phil Hare (Ill.), Bill Foster (Ill.),Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Sanford Bishop (Ga.), and John Salazar (Colo.). In each district, Democrats won re-election by significant, if not overwhelming, margins in 2008. Now, Democrats view every one of those seats as endangered. …

Meanwhile, much more vulnerable Democrats, who face much better-funded Republican challengers, are seeing their ad buys cut, a clear sign that Democrats believe spending money on their behalf is a waste of resources. Earlier this week, Democrats cut ad buys in districts held by Reps. Betsy Markey (Colo.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Chet Edwards (Texas), and Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), and in open seats being vacated by Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.).

Only one reason exists to cut off ad buys, which is that the expenditure won’t make a difference in the race.  That means that either Democrats are confident that they’ll win in these districts, or admitting defeat and reprioritizing where they think they can make a difference.  It also means that the heretofore safe seats in places like Illinois, Massachusetts, and and Colorado have become threatened — and that wouldn’t be happening without a massive, national GOP wave.  Democrats can spin about base turnout and loyalty all day long, but money talks and spinmeisters walk.

The addition of Salazar and the dropping of Markey seems especially interesting.  Markey was supposed to be competitive this cycle.  CO-4 is an R+6 district, however, located in eastern Colorado, a mainly rural area.  Unlike Markey, Salazar is not a freshman; he has served since 2004, when he beat an incumbent in this R+5 district encompassing most of the western part of the state while George Bush carried Colorado on the way to his re-election.  He’s also the brother of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and had been considered an up-and-comer in a state that was turning bluish-purple until this cycle.  A loss in this district would be a serious slap in the face to the Obama White House.

The addition of the open seat of Bill Delahunt (MA-10) is even more striking.  This district represents most of the Cape Cod area and has a Cook rating of D+5.  In one of the bluest states in the country, this practically defines “safe” for Democrats in most cycles.  Trouble is brewing in this race, as Guy Benson reports, and it’s not just the sudden resonance of the Jeff Perry campaign, either.  It comes from a late-breaking conflict of interest story between Democratic nominee Bill Keating, a local district attorney, and political donations from the defense attorney of a attempted-murder suspect he’s trying:

Norfolk District Attorney William Keating has accepted campaign donations from a lawyer representing a man charged by Keating’s office with attempting to gun down an off-duty firefighter last year.Keating, A Democrat running for Congress in the 10th district, received two donations from attorney John McGlone in August totaling $1,545, according to an Associated Press review of campaign records. McGlone also co-hosted a Quincy fundraiser for Keating in August.

McGlone represents Robert O’Connell, charged with attempted murder after being arrested for shooting Milton firefighter Joseph Fasano during a confrontation. Keating’s office is prosecuting O’Connell.

Keating’s campaign did not immediately respond when asked for comment. McGlone also did not immediately return a call.

Guy puts this in perspective:

Wow. If this story is accurate, Keating has accepted campaign donations from, and has held a political fundraiser with, an attorney for a man his office is currently prosecuting for attempted murder. Even if that is technically legal, it reeks of a legal ethics violation, and at the very least, demonstrates disqualifyingly poor judgment on Keating’s part. This AP report could prove to be a decisive factor in this razor-close race.

Democrats must believe so, too, if they’re building their firewall around MA-10.


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Tubular.

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Tubular.

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Totally!

44Magnum on October 7, 2010 at 1:42 PM

indicating that it is Republicans who have had the most success in putting seats in play.

Someone got paid to deliver that piercing analysis.

amerpundit on October 7, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Tubular.

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Pipeline.

My collie says:

I’ll see if I can find those old Ventures albums.

CyberCipher on October 7, 2010 at 1:45 PM

A loss in this district would be a serious slap in the face to the Obama White House.

Figuratively is better, still would literally like to see that happen.

NoDonkey on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

Someone got paid to deliver that piercing analysis.

amerpundit on October 7, 2010 at 1:42 PM

I thought the same thing when I read that.

Kind of a journalistic “wild pitch” isn’t it?

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

I’ve always liked the idea of targeting Salazar. I’ve thought he was vulnerable for awhile now. Good to see the DCCC thinks the same. :-)

Abby Adams on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

God I hope Donnelly gets beat. He sucks…running as “an independent voice for you!”

search4truth on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

CyberCipher on October 7, 2010 at 1:45 PM

That’s one smart dog you have there.

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

Righteous!!!

capejasmine on October 7, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Earlier this week, Democrats cut ad buys in districts held by Reps. Betsy Markey (Colo.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Chet Edwards (Texas), and Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), and in open seats being vacated by Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.).

This is a funny race. Chet is going down because he has voted too often with Pelosi, but now McCain of all people is in an ad for Flores.

Vashta.Nerada on October 7, 2010 at 1:48 PM

And to prove the point, do your duty, build the wave even higher. Wash the crap off your feet.

tarpon on October 7, 2010 at 1:50 PM

… and in open seats being vacated by Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.).

He robs from the rich
And gives to the poor,

Dennis Moore,
Dennis Moore,
Dennis Moore.

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Why do I get this picture in my mind of a circular firing squad? Or, a lone fireman with one hose in the middle of a forest fire?

Rovin on October 7, 2010 at 1:51 PM

I thought the same thing when I read that.

Kind of a journalistic “wild pitch” isn’t it?

UltimateBob on October 7, 2010 at 1:46 PM

After much analysis, Reid Wilson has also come to the conclusion that Barack Obama might not be as popular now as he was in 2008.

amerpundit on October 7, 2010 at 1:53 PM

The larger question is ‘does the GOP have the stones to do the hard work once they win?’.

bloviator on October 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM

Cue Sean Penn from Fast Times at Ridgemount High…

mjbrooks3 on October 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM

It’s Circle D Desperation.

SlaveDog on October 7, 2010 at 1:55 PM

CHET EDWARDS?…………..HOLY FREAKING COW!!!

TEANAMI!!!!!! 11/2

200 seat CONSERVATIVE pickup or bust!!!!

PappyD61 on October 7, 2010 at 1:56 PM

November 2 is going to be SO MUCH FUN!!!

Can’t wait. Gonna pop some popcorn, sit in my lazyboy and watch baracks dem machine crumble.

I’m luving it!

DuctTapeMyBrain on October 7, 2010 at 1:57 PM

The larger question is ‘does the GOP have the stones to do the hard work once they win?’.

bloviator on October 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM

Do the AMERICAN PEOPLE (Conservatives) have the stones to hold these D.C. Clowns accountable until we can get rid of the DOTUS in 2012?

Fixed it.

PappyD61 on October 7, 2010 at 1:59 PM

The dem money is clearly coming in for Boxer – her obnoxious tv ads are running constantly.

LASue on October 7, 2010 at 1:59 PM

I think there are going to be seriously shocking results in both the House and the Senate. Races most people had no idea were winnable, or were even within shooting distance.

Missy on October 7, 2010 at 2:00 PM

Rovin on October 7, 2010 at 1:51 PM

Well, let’s post the whole song!

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Galloping through the sward
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
And his horse Concorde
He steals from the rich
And gives to the poor
Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the night
Soon every lupin in the land
Will be in his mighty hand
He steals them from the rich
And gives them to the poor
Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore, Mr. Moore

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dum dum dum the night
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dum de dum dum plight
He steals dum dum dum
And dum dum dum dee
Dennis dum, Dennis dee, dum dum dum

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the woods
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
With his bag of things
He gives to the poor
And he takes from the rich
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the land
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Without a merry band
He steals from the poor
And gives to the rich
Stupid b*tch

and don’t forget one of the greatest line on socialism ever:

“Blimey, this redistribution of wealth is trickier than I thought!” — Dennis Moore.

PackerBronco on October 7, 2010 at 2:00 PM

The Dems are sneaky, shameless, and ruthless. You have to go all-out to the very end, or they’ll take advantage of your weakness.

RBMN on October 7, 2010 at 2:01 PM

I have been receiving about 2 or 3 emails a day from Barack. “Hey buddy, can you spare $3?” They used to ask for $5, guess they dropped it down.

Which makes me curious, why doesn’t the GOP ask for small quantities too?

El_Terrible on October 7, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Looks like at least a 75 seat, OR MORE, pickup for the R’s this election cycle. Now I am hoping to see a 100 seat swing. I have literally bought a commercial popcorn popper (great sale at amazon.com). I am going to get it out of the box and pop that movie theater style popcorn all night long on 11/2. SWEEEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

karenhasfreedom on October 7, 2010 at 2:10 PM

…. pronouncing that they will hold the House and Senate, and that January 2011 will see advancements on the Pelosi-Obama agenda.

“Remain calm! All is well!”
-CD

iurockhead on October 7, 2010 at 2:12 PM

Well, let’s post the whole song video!

PackerBronco on October 7, 2010 at 2:00 PM

FIFY

Shy Guy on October 7, 2010 at 2:13 PM

I cannot wait to send “Big Spending” Bill Foster back to… um… uh… NYC, where he lives with his new wife.

Fallon on October 7, 2010 at 2:17 PM

Future MSNBC screen cap, 11.2.10 -

Experiencing Technical Difficulties

roy_batty on October 7, 2010 at 2:21 PM

The wave! The wave! Poseidon Adventure anyone?

cartooner on October 7, 2010 at 2:21 PM

I cannot wait to send “Big Spending” Bill Foster back to… um… uh… NYC, where he lives with his new wife.

Fallon on October 7, 2010 at 2:17 PM

My district, too. I was very disappointed with our candidate in the special and general elections in 2008. But Hultgren is an excellent candidate and I think we have a good chance to get this district (Denny Hastert’s old CD!) back into Republican hands.

jwolf on October 7, 2010 at 2:28 PM

I wonder if Olbie is going to call in sick, curl up in his bathtub, cry like a baby, and pass out drunk early.

Just for fun, I’ll watch CNN/MSNBC/or any alphabet news instead that night. FNC won’t be as much fun anyway.

Sir Napsalot on October 7, 2010 at 2:32 PM

The larger question is ‘does the GOP have the stones to do the hard work once they win?’.

bloviator on October 7, 2010 at 1:54 PM

If they don’t, they can borrow some from the Tea Party members who will be breathing down their necks for the next two years.

Extrafishy on October 7, 2010 at 2:33 PM

*Crush your enemies — Check
*See them driven before you — In progress

29Victor on October 7, 2010 at 2:38 PM

The Chicago Tribune officially endorsed Bill Foster for re-election today.

This is the “scientist” who when I emailed him on my opposition to Obamacare actually wrote me back and said he has read the entire proposal “cover to cover”. Which I knew was totally BS!

This is the guy the Tribune is endorsing. Which is why I am relying less and less on what the Tribune has to say about anything these days.

For all I know, their counterpart in West Palm Beach FL is probably endorsing Alan Grayson for re-election!

pilamaye on October 7, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Does anybody know what the current Misery Index number is? As I recall, that calculation (unemployment rate + previous 12 months’ inflation rate) peaked at 21.9 under Jimmy “The Dhimmi” Carter in 1981.

Maybe the American people should be informed about the current Misery Index in upcoming campaign ads?

KyMouse on October 7, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Cowabonga Man!
The Dems can eat our collective shorts.

esnap on October 7, 2010 at 2:42 PM

If they don’t, they can borrow some from the Tea Party members who will be breathing down their necks for the next two years.

Extrafishy on October 7, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Perxactly!

esnap on October 7, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Minor quibble: Salazar won an open-seat race in 2004; he didn’t beat an incumbent.

km on October 7, 2010 at 2:50 PM

29Victor on October 7, 2010 at 2:38 PM

And hear de lamentation of de MSNBC anchor vimmen!

dogsoldier on October 7, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Sorry forgot this bit at the end of the sentence:
- Coming

dogsoldier on October 7, 2010 at 2:54 PM

I hate the fact that both parties have to pay the wicked media to get their messages broadcast. The media, stocked with liberals, get to see their bottom lines bolstered by these fights. Is there no escape?

leftnomore on October 7, 2010 at 3:03 PM

29Victor on October 7, 2010 at 2:38 PM

And hear de lamentation of de MSNBC anchor vimmen!

dogsoldier on October 7, 2010 at 2:53 PM

I’d ratha hear de lamentation of de outgoing Dem vimmen like Boxer und Murray.

teke184 on October 7, 2010 at 3:05 PM

I’ve already taken a vacay day 11/3. I cannot wait to stay up for thirty-six hours watching the Dems’ misery.

I feel like I’m nine again and Christmas is coming.

Akzed on October 7, 2010 at 3:21 PM

The Chicago Tribune officially endorsed Bill Foster for re-election today.

He probably promised to buy some subscriptions from them with his campaign millions, lol. Remember, the Trib endorsed Obama, too. They are now part of the MSM mafia that protects the Dems at all costs, weirdly at the risk of hastening their own demise… Meh.

Hultgren is a good guy. The intensity and smear tactics that Foster is using against him show me how mad the “scientist” has become, lol.

Fallon on October 7, 2010 at 3:21 PM

What this will demonstrate is money is not a determining factor in who wins: outspending an opponent does you no good if people detest your policies, their results and your message. They are trying to sell a dead parrot and getting no buyers.

ajacksonian on October 7, 2010 at 3:23 PM

This observation is based on my conversation with one person, my liberal neighbor. His comment to me during the healthcare debate was “I’m liberal, but not THAT liberal.” He is a staunch physical conservative, but is socially liberal. My guess is the same is true of many in these historical blue states.

I haven’t asked how he plans to vote in November, but my guess is he’ll vote Republican or won’t vote at all. What I do know is that his days of voting Democrat are over.

SoldiersMom on October 7, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Democrats have begun bragging that Barack Obama and other party leaders have begun energizing their base

Romancing the stoned?

MrX on October 7, 2010 at 3:33 PM

and at the very least, demonstrates disqualifyingly poor judgment on Keating’s part.

Bingooooo!!!!

tgharris on October 7, 2010 at 3:47 PM

I sence the liberals are finished this year, and won’t return to power for years to come. The obama gamble was a bust, and he has poisoned the well for the next brood.

His crash will be harder than Carter’s and more complete. The electorate has tasted liberalism and they hate it. Only the poor minorities and the egg head pseudo intellectual liberal elite will want more, and they too have been outed as intellectual flunkies.

saiga on October 7, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Catch a wave
And you’re sittin’ on top of the world!

mrt721 on October 7, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Book ‘em Dano.

Lily on October 7, 2010 at 4:34 PM

29Victor on October 7, 2010 at 2:38 PM

And hear de lamentation of de MSNBC anchor vimmen!

dogsoldier on October 7, 2010 at 2:53 PM

I’d ratha hear de lamentation of de outgoing Dem vimmen like Boxer und Murray.

teke184 on October 7, 2010 at 3:05 PM

I don’t care who it is, I just want to hear some liberal lamentation. It feeds my soul.

29Victor on October 7, 2010 at 4:49 PM

Maybe instead of “gnarly” you should’ve said: “butthole surfers”.

Virus-X on October 7, 2010 at 5:32 PM

I’d ratha hear de lamentation of de outgoing Dem vimmen like Boxer und Murray.

teke184 on October 7, 2010 at 3:05 PM

I am not certain that Patty Murray would completely understand that she won’t go back to the other Washington. One of her staff will have to explain it to her.

iconoclast on October 7, 2010 at 6:13 PM

LOL, I love that you used the word “gnarly”.

American Elephant on October 7, 2010 at 6:22 PM