Raese now leads Manchin by 6 in Rasmussen poll

posted at 2:15 pm on October 6, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

This race was, like Connecticut, supposed to be a safe harbor for Democrats in a very stormy season.  Now it looks as though their decision to have Joe Manchin run for the remainder of Robert Byrd’s term in the Senate may have been a waste of effort, and possibly self-defeating.  West Virginia voters are moving to Republican John Raese, now outside of the margin of error, in the latest Rasmussen poll, with Raese reaching the 50% mark for the first time:

Republican John Raese now holds a six-point lead on Democratic Governor Joe Manchin in West Virginia’s shockingly competitive U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia finds Raese with 50% support, while the state’s highly popular governor earns just 44% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. …

Raese, a businessman and unsuccessful Senate candidate in 2006, first edged ahead of Manchin last week 48% to 46%. The race, which initially seemed safely Manchin’s, now appears to be pitting the governor’s popularity in the state versus President Obama’s unpopularity with West Virginia voters.

Rasmussen has moved this from Toss-Up to Leans Republican, a stunning reversal of fortune for Democrats.  Byrd held this seat for nearly 50 years and was tremendously popular with West Virginia voters.  Joe Manchin continues to have high personal approval numbers (69/29) and job approval ratings (69/31).  The rest of the numbers, though, look terrible for Democrats in a state where voters have the option of essentially choosing both candidates — keeping Manchin in the governor’s mansion and putting a Republican in the US Senate to block Barack Obama’s agenda.

Consider these numbers.  Obama’s job approval in WV comes in at a Bush-like 30/69, no doubt in large part due to his push for cap-and-trade and the EPA’s war on coal mining.  On where Manchin belongs, a majority of voters want him where he is now, 53/33, including 35% of Democrats and 61% of independents.  Raese gets 25% of the Democratic vote, with leaners, for that reason.  Almost two-thirds of voters want a repeal of ObamaCare, and 70% believe that Obama’s stimulus package has either hurt the economy or had no effect.  Bear in mind, too, that Rasmussen has released its sample data — and Democrats have a 7-point advantage in it.

Not only does Raese’s sudden surge seem very predictable, it’s also probably not over.  As Jim Geraghty noted earlier this week, once a Senate race gets six points out in the last four weeks of the election cycle, it doesn’t usually come back.  West Virginia voters are looking for the win-win — keeping their popular governor in place and sending Raese to block Democrats’ plans for their agenda.  And in this case, Raese would be seated immediately after winning the election, spoiling Harry Reid’s hopes for a lame-duck policy push.


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Rasmussen has moved this from Toss-Up to Leans Republican, a stunning reversal of fortune for Democrats.

Who are these “Democrats” that Ed speaketh of…??

ted c on October 6, 2010 at 2:18 PM

Which one looks like Mr. Drummond from Different Strokes?

Manchin or Raese?

portlandon on October 6, 2010 at 2:19 PM

Headline: West VA voters play the Raese card against Dems.

FlameWarrior on October 6, 2010 at 2:20 PM

West Virginia voters are looking for the win-win — keeping their popular governor in place and sending Raese to block Democrats’ plans for their agenda.

I wonder if the Nevada voters will do the same thing… except make it a lose-lose. If they vote down Rory (don’t call me Reid) Reid, maybe they’ll also choose to sink Harry Reid right along with him…..

a guy can hope can’t he..?

ted c on October 6, 2010 at 2:20 PM

I am already feeling my November 3rd hangover.

Chuck Schick on October 6, 2010 at 2:20 PM

And in this case, Raese would be seated immediately after winning the election, spoiling Harry Reid’s hopes for a lame-duck policy push.

Isn’t Mark Kirk also running for a seat where he’d take office immediately? These two pickups would be huge for stopping the lameduck agenda(so would Delaware, but I’m being a realist about that race).

Doughboy on October 6, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Republican John Raese now holds a six-point lead on Democratic Governor Joe Manchin in West Virginia’s shockingly competitive U.S. Senate race.

Does the Coal stance of the Obama administration play into this at all?

portlandon on October 6, 2010 at 2:21 PM

As Jim Geraghty noted earlier this week, once a Senate race gets six points out in the last four weeks of the election cycle, it doesn’t usually come back.

Does this mean it’s over for O’Donnell, and Whitman? Fox just showed Whitman is falling behind, due to the maid gate mess.

capejasmine on October 6, 2010 at 2:23 PM

I suggest that the dems pull ad money from this race, and put some more in Connecticut…

Vashta.Nerada on October 6, 2010 at 2:23 PM

And in this case, Raese would be seated immediately after winning the election, spoiling Harry Reid’s hopes for a lame-duck policy push.

That fact alone is probably worth 3 of his points.

Vashta.Nerada on October 6, 2010 at 2:25 PM

Pin the sword of damocles on the donkey.

This worthless idiot is in the crosshairs precisely because he had the lack of intelligence, ethics and judgement, to run as a vile Democrat.

NoDonkey on October 6, 2010 at 2:26 PM

RealClearPolitics just dropped two more Dems and added three in the Rep column for the House.

Democrats 188 -2
Toss Ups 37 -1
Republicans 210 +3

Two months ago that was like 201-201, then it was as high as 207-196 Democrats with 32 toss ups.

WoosterOh on October 6, 2010 at 2:28 PM

capejasmine on October 6, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Right now it doesn’t look good for Whitman. I don’t think it’s entirely because of the dirty tricks maid gate. Unfortunately, we in Ca. have on our ballot legalization of Marijuana.That’s a big pull for the usual subjects:Libs. It’s hurting both Firoina and Whitman.I read that this is being carefully watched by the Dems. to see how it draws. If it is huge for the mary jane lovers they are considering trying to work to get it on ballots in other States for 2012.

sandee on October 6, 2010 at 2:28 PM

Why Wall Street needs to be regulated:

They put on a dog and pony show for the politicians and suckers…then go for the kill when no one is looking.

rickyricardo on October 6, 2010 at 2:29 PM

Unexpected!

txhsmom on October 6, 2010 at 2:31 PM

RCP.com also now has a history and more data for House races.

They have a prediction

Pick-up Range GOP +31 to +68 average GOP +49.5

WoosterOh on October 6, 2010 at 2:31 PM

portlandon on October 6, 2010 at 2:19 PM

Raese has white hair, Manchin brown.

cs89 on October 6, 2010 at 2:35 PM

Does this mean it’s over for O’Donnell, and Whitman? Fox just showed Whitman is falling behind, due to the maid gate mess.

capejasmine on October 6, 2010 at 2:23 PM

I don’t see how O’Donnell pulls this off barring some huge(and I mean HUGE) GOP turnout that somehow dwarfs the Democrat votes. I’m not gonna sit here and pretend she wasn’t a flawed candidate, but the national coverage of this race has been disgraceful.

As for Whitman, unfortunately we’re talking about California here. I honestly don’t know why the illegal immigrant “controversy” would even matter to voters unless they thought she was lying about not knowing about her status. But the state has a large Latino population and the media constantly harping on this between now and Election Day allows Brown to get away with not having any sort of plan to deal with the mess they’re in.

I think a Brown victory might be a good thing though in the long-term. It puts the onus on the Democrats to deal with the fiscal crisis and when they inevitably try to do it by raising taxes, pandering to unions, and promoting green jobs and some sort of magical cure for unemployment, the state will completely collapse. And who will get the blame? The Dems, both locally and nationally. I don’t think it’ll be enough to put their electoral votes at risk in 2012, but it may be enough to make the state competitive.

Doughboy on October 6, 2010 at 2:35 PM

the national coverage of this race has been disgraceful

And completely predictable.

NoDonkey on October 6, 2010 at 2:42 PM

And completely predictable.

NoDonkey on October 6, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Not entirely. As big a jerk as Uberdouche is, what he did last night was low even by his standards.

Doughboy on October 6, 2010 at 2:45 PM

Has Raese been talking about being seated immediately to stop Democrats lame-duck policy push?

LurkerDood on October 6, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Republicans may be able to hold Hawaii Governorship. Hawaii is catching the wave. 10 weeks ago Abercrombie (D) was +26 in a poll, he was +2 in today’s poll.

Poll Date Sample Abercrombie (D) Aiona (R) Spread
RCP Average 8/10 – 10/3 – 51.0 44.0 Abercrombie +7.0
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 10/2 – 10/3 1326 LV 49 47 Abercrombie +2
Honolulu Star-Advertiser 8/10 – 8/17 604 LV 53 41 Abercrombie +12
Rasmussen Reports 6/24 – 6/24 500 LV 58 32 Abercrombie +26
Honolulu Advertiser 4/23 – 4/28 604 LV 49 35 Abercrombie +14
Rasmussen Reports 3/24 – 3/24 500 LV 54 31 Abercrombie +23
Mason-Dixon 1/8 – 1/12 800 RV 43 34 Abercrombie +9

WoosterOh on October 6, 2010 at 2:52 PM

Headline: West VA voters play the Raese card against Dems.

FlameWarrior on October 6, 2010 at 2:20 PM

Zing!! That’s pretty good. :)

jwolf on October 6, 2010 at 3:05 PM

Does the Coal stance of the Obama administration play into this at all?

This has everything to do with coal. Between their stance on coal and off-shore drilling, there is no doubt where this administration stands. We get it.
And please remember in 2012, when Obama ( IF he is still the Dem nominee) loses by 30-40 points in WV – it has everything to do with coal.

humdinger on October 6, 2010 at 3:23 PM

If Tea Party succeeds in getting the socialists out of their seas in the house and senate, The lawyers will still be in charge of everything else.

Egfrow on October 6, 2010 at 3:26 PM

If Raese is not 8 points up the day before the election he will have it stolen. Trust me I know I helped put a lot of those crooks in prison. The election will be stolen.

Jdripper on October 6, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Who are these “Democrats” that Ed speaketh of…??

ted c on October 6, 2010 at 2:18 PM

Their the RINOs without the disguise and as are the RINOs, they seem to be rapidly approaching the endangered species list!

dhunter on October 6, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Right now it doesn’t look good for Whitman. I don’t think it’s entirely because of the dirty tricks maid gate. Unfortunately, we in Ca. have on our ballot legalization of Marijuana.That’s a big pull for the usual subjects:Libs. It’s hurting both Firoina and Whitman.I read that this is being carefully watched by the Dems. to see how it draws. If it is huge for the mary jane lovers they are considering trying to work to get it on ballots in other States for 2012.

sandee on October 6, 2010 at 2:28 PM

This can backfire. I’m voting for Meg, and also Yes on 23. I figure that Liberals are more likely to get stoned than conservatives. Therefore, next election cycle, all the liberals will be stoned and won’t bother to vote because it is much more important to be listening to Pick Floyd stoned.

PrettyD_Vicious on October 6, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Pink, Pink, Pink

PrettyD_Vicious on October 6, 2010 at 3:46 PM

This can backfire. I’m voting for Meg, and also Yes on 23. I figure that Liberals are more likely to get stoned than conservatives. Therefore, next election cycle, all the liberals will be stoned and won’t bother to vote because it is much more important to be listening to Pick Floyd stoned.

PrettyD_Vicious on October 6, 2010 at 3:46 PM

That there is really funny. Maybe we need to start a Government program to help them get stoned. StonedCare.

WoosterOh on October 6, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Does it really matter whether Whitman wins, except in feeding out own egos? She’s no Chris Christie, and without a Christieesque attitude, the only difference between her and Beijing Jerry Brown is how quickly the state will experience total collapse. She might be able to postpone the inevitable for a couple years; Jerry Brown will be like Obama on steroids and probably have people rioting in the streets by next July.

The Lone Platypus on October 6, 2010 at 4:08 PM

If Raese is not 8 points up the day before the election he will have it stolen. Trust me I know I helped put a lot of those crooks in prison. The election will be stolen.

I fear you may be right. The counties south of Rte. 60 can be counted on for Dead Men Voting.
Our ambitious Dem Sec State, Natalie, needs to be put on notice. If Joe wins by a hair, Raese should hire every lawyer he can. One county , Lincoln I believe, ratted out their own in the primary. Joe and Natalie need to keep that in mind.

humdinger on October 6, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Why I’m Voting Democrat: Because Democrats let me vote as many times as I want!

WoosterOh on October 6, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Just in case anybody is wondering, there’s no worry of Raese being a squish. Here’s a brief roundup of positions, and his level of belief in Manbearpig is “zero“, and he’s “violently opposed” to Porkulus.

forest on October 6, 2010 at 7:03 PM