Fairleigh Dickinson poll: Coons 53, O’Donnell 36

posted at 4:59 pm on October 6, 2010 by Allahpundit

There are actually two polls out today, one from FDU and the other from the University of Delaware showing Coons up 19, but the latter is a poll of … randomly selected Delaware adults. Why on earth would anyone spend good money to survey a sample as broad as that at this point in the campaign? We’re less than 30 days from the election, boys; from now on, it’s likely voters or bust.

FDU did confine its own poll to likelies, though. The last survey of likely voters in Delaware was by Rasmussen on September 26 and showed Coons up just nine points. Whether his lead is actually expanding or these FDU numbers are simply an outlier will depend, I guess, on what Ras comes up with later this week.

Republican Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell is actually better known to Delaware’s likely voters than Democrat Chris Coons: 93% say they have heard of Coons, while 97% say they have heard of O’Donnell. Nonetheless, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, Coons leads O’Donnell 53%-36% in the special election…

Democrats have largely united behind Coons: 85% say that they will vote for their party’s nominee. However, only 68% of Republicans say that they will vote for O’Donnell. Independents lean to Coons by 46% to 37%.

“Typically, Republicans are more loyal to their party than Democrats,” said Dan Cassino, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the university’s PublicMind research group. “This hesitation by Republicans is hurting O’Donnell.”

A few things here. On the upbeat side, remember that O’Donnell’s ad campaign is just starting to roll out and that she’s got tons of cash to keep it running. (In fact, FDU’s poll was concluded the day before her “I’m not a witch, I’m you” spot debuted.) The ad barrage and the debate between her and Coons a week from today will be all-important, obviously; if she’s still down by double digits 10 days from now, oh well. On the downbeat side, one thing not mentioned by FDU in its summary but worth flagging in the crosstabs is how much worse O’Donnell’s doing among women than men. Among male likely voters, Coons leads 50/41; among women, it’s 56/32. That’s strikingly similar to CNN’s poll of this race from a few weeks ago, which showed a roughly even split among men but a 29-point lead for Coons among female voters. The tea party’s favorable rating in Delaware is equally skewed: Overall it’s 34/48 but just 40/45 among men versus … 29/51 among women. In fact, the gender gap is much wider vis-a-vis views of the tea party then it is on abortion. In Delaware, 36 percent of both men and women describe themselves as pro-life compared to 51 percent and 56 percent, respectively, who say they’re pro-choice. We already knew that women voters generally tilt towards Democrats but they’re tilting waaaaay over towards Coons’s side in this state. And if that’s because they simply can’t stomach the tea-party paradigm of small government then I’m not sure what O’Donnell can say policy-wise to win them over.

As for the boldfaced stuff in the excerpt, some of those wayward Republicans are bound to come home on election day but the high name recognition for both candidates is worrisome. It’s one thing if blue-state voters are leaning towards the Democrat instinctively because they haven’t looked at the Republican yet, it’s another if they have looked at him/her and are leaning Democrat anyway. Here’s hoping Team O’Donnell’s got some killer ads in the pipe. Call Ladd Ehlinger, guys! Dale Peterson is standing by.


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It will be awesome when Palin swoops in to save the day and the witchiepoo masturbation-is-adultery trainwreck still loses by double digits.

Dave Rywall on October 7, 2010 at 11:26 AM

From Jennifer Rubin at Contentions:

Here, then, is one very viable path to a 10-seat pick-up for the Republicans: North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia, Nevada, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Washington. The Republican challenger leads in the latest polling in every one of these races.

I’ve been saying since the DE primary that I think we have a chance to take the Senate with or without DE. If you can’t support O’Donnell, then can we at least just get over the “you Truuue CONZZZ ruined our chances to take the Senate!!1!!!!” pointlessness and get busy trying to win?

Missy on October 7, 2010 at 11:30 AM

It will be awesome when Palin swoops in to save the day and the witchiepoo masturbation-is-adultery trainwreck still loses by double digits.

Dave Rywall on October 7, 2010 at 11:26 AM

I don’t think even Sarah Palin is dumb enough to try and salvage that walking fustercluck’s campaign. Her personal deflector shields work very well, but they don’t extend too far.

No, my bet is that she’ll let O’Dumbbell go like a red-hot horseshoe and let any previous endorsements fall down the memory hole.

Dark-Star on October 7, 2010 at 12:47 PM

…wayward Republicans…

At this point, if you’re a registered Republican and you’d rather vote for a Democrat or stay home because she’s a “solid” Conservative as opposed to a “squishy” Conservative then then you’re simply “REGISTERED”. You aren’t Republican. You aren’t Conservative. Neither fiscally or socially. You might as well re-register correctly.

Why can’t we have a test for party affiliation? Kind of like those party affiliations tests you see on the internet.

Sultry Beauty on October 7, 2010 at 1:07 PM

The folks there put her on the ballot, she won, now they need to support her. It’s on the voters. She’s certainly much better than some of the folks the liberals elected.

Unlike the current immoral unethical trash presently running things.

dogsoldier on October 7, 2010 at 1:27 PM

The goal is not to have the most Senators, the goal is to have enough like minded people to STOP these progressives in their tracks.
Elizabetty on October 7, 2010 at 9:48 AM

In order to get representation you have to win elections. in order to win elections you need to go with an electable candidate.

“Good thing the election isn’t being held today, then.
Missy on October 7, 2010 at 9:48 AM”

Then get out there Missy, because the time to salvage this is short.

“Boxy Brown? As in Barbara and Jerry from Cali?
Delaware is still in play. It will be until the election is held.
Fallon on October 7″

Nope and not really.

“You need to stop playing the game the Dems and moderates have told you to play. Its not about having the most senators right now. What would a Republican majority of Graham’s, McCains and Castles get you?
Koa on October 7, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Thanks for regurgatating the “perfect is the enemy of the good” argument again; I can assure you that I have heard it before, it is one of the elements that brought us Barack Obama. Losing elections doesn’t get you influence, tossing them away just makes you like like an idiot.

Boxy_Brown on October 7, 2010 at 2:23 PM

The RINOblicans are rubbing their hands together in barely disguised glee, just waiting for the chance to scream “Told ya SO!” and win a few useless bragging points.

Bishop on October 6, 2010 at 8:36 PM

This has to be the explanation for all the fuss over this one Senate seat. “True Conservatives,” are willing to take a big chance on losing the Senate seat and possibly Republican control of the Senate rather than put in the same old RINO that winds up “hearing the call of history” and giving the Democrats whatever they really want.

The message to Republicans in Congress that it’s not enough for them to win the election bearing the Republican name. If they’re too liberal, we’ll still throw them out.

That’s a valuable lesson to professional politicians. Valuable enough to be worth losing a Senate seat, and even control of the Senate, if it gets the point across.

The RINOs will say they’re angry about losing a Senate seat they could have won, and about losing a chance to control the Senate. But if that was the real message, they would have lined up behind O’Donnell, however reluctantly.

The RINOs are just as willing to lose a Senate seat and possible control of the Senate as the “True Conservatives” they castigate. For them, it seems to be about keeping the status quo where conservatives have to hold their nose and vote for non-conservatives, because the only other choice is a Democrat. They don’t want to see conservatives be able to force the RINOs to respect their base.

tom on October 7, 2010 at 2:39 PM

In order to get representation you have to win elections. in order to win elections you need to go with an electable candidate.
Boxy_Brown on October 7, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Well, evidently, according to Delaware Republicans, O’Donnell was more electable than Castle. She won.

kingsjester on October 7, 2010 at 2:39 PM

In order to get representation you have to win elections. in order to win elections you need to go with an electable candidate.
Boxy_Brown on October 7, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Well, evidently, according to Delaware Republicans, O’Donnell was more electable than Castle. She won.

kingsjester on October 7, 2010 at 2:39 PM

The question here is Electability vs Accountability. O’Donnell may not be electable but Castle wouldn’t be accountable.

Yes, the Republican primary voters might have handed the seat to a bearded Marxist. However, at best we would have another Specter or Snowe in this seat. Then in six years we could look forward to the re-elction of the RINO.

Question, should FLA or Alaska voters have gone for the proven winner?

jpmn on October 7, 2010 at 3:19 PM

“Good thing the election isn’t being held today, then.
Missy on October 7, 2010 at 9:48 AM”

Then get out there Missy, because the time to salvage this is short.

Exactly. My point is that you, Boxy, do not have a crystal ball, so why the defeatist all-is-lost attitude? I agree we need to keep fighting and have been saying so. You’re the one who says it’s hopeless.

Why so many people are wasting so much bandwidth arguing against the Republican nominee, I’ll never get. They must want Coons to win or something.

Missy on October 7, 2010 at 3:51 PM

So what is Coons wins? By 2016 he’ll be tired of being 1 of the 8 or 9 Demo’s in the Senate and quit.

BruceB on October 7, 2010 at 6:28 PM

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