Fox News poll: Angle by three in Nevada, Raese by five in West Virginia

posted at 12:16 pm on October 5, 2010 by Allahpundit

Both leads are within the margin of error but don’t worry about that. The important thing is the tea leaves showing how the races might break over the last month. In Angle’s case, the worry has been that undecideds will tilt towards Reid in the crunch on the theory that the devil you know is preferable to the one you don’t. Not so, if FNC’s numbers are right: Angle’s moved up four points in this poll to lead 49/46 with five percent undecided (or voting other). In the last poll, with 10 percent undecided/other, she was stuck at 45 percent and trailing by a point. In other words, the fencesitters are falling her way even though 53 percent overall say they find her views “too extreme.” (Fully 56 percent say Reid’s been in office too long.)

Nevada will be up in the air until late on election night. Will West Virginia? Dude:

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters — 48 percent to 43 percent.

In what may be the year’s clearest case of Obama’s downward pull on his party’s candidates, Manchin gets high marks from voters – 66 percent approved of his job performance and 65 percent had a positive view of him personally — but they still prefer Raese…

Manchin’s most obvious problem is Obama’s 29 percent approval rating in the state. Only 12 percent believe that Obama’s policies have helped the state economically, while 55 percent in the coal-rich state believe they have hurt. That is borne out in the slim 28 percent of respondents who supported a plan to address global warming like the one Obama favors.

Remember, thanks to Manchin’s remarkable approval rating, this seat was supposed to be a Democratic gimme. As it is, the race has become almost a pure referendum on Obama, with Manchin’s popularity likely the only thing stopping it from turning into a Republican landslide. Raese wins 54 percent of independents and a quarter of Democrats(!) and Fox notes that tea party support is higher in West Virginia than any other state surveyed this week. Which raises the question: Why should anyone believe that Raese’s lead will narrow? All three pollsters to survey this race since last month now show him ahead. If the race really has become a simple exercise in voters registering their disgust with Obama by voting against the Democrat then there’s practically nothing Manchin can do to dent that lead. The race isn’t about him and it isn’t about Raese, and there are no Hopenchange miracles on the way this month to change anyone’s mind about The One. He’s stuck. In fact, have a look at the new NRSC ad below; they understand the dynamics of this race perfectly.

As DrewM notes, what makes West Virginia especially important is that it’s also a special election, which means the winner will be seated for the lame-duck session. Raese’s vote will come in handy if the White House starts to get any funny ideas about, say, immigration or cap-and-trade. Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher and Survey USA and Rasmussen both show Fiorina trailing Boxer in California but within the margin of error. With a 16 percent likelihood of flipping, that’s the longest longshot right now in Nate Silver’s analysis of the 11 most vulnerable Democratic seats; each of the other 10 stand a 25 percent chance or better of breaking Republican and eight of them stand a 50 percent chance or better. West Virginia is currently rated a 37 percent chance to flip, but don’t be surprised to see that crack 50 percent sometime this afternoon.


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I was told she wasn’t electable.

Oil Can on October 5, 2010 at 12:17 PM

That’s a pretty clever ad.

lorien1973 on October 5, 2010 at 12:20 PM

I think she’s finally pulling in the last of the hardcore teaparty group backing that nutcase guy.

He so blew it.

AnninCA on October 5, 2010 at 12:21 PM

Remember, thanks to Manchin’s remarkable approval rating, this seat was supposed to be a gimme. As it is, the race has become almost a pure referendum on Obama, with Manchin’s popularity likely the only thing stopping it from turning into a Republican landslide.

I think the WV race is very interesting. With Manchin a popular governor and running for a Dem Senate seat, it appears WV doesn’t want to let him go to DC. Just goes to show how every race is different…

ted c on October 5, 2010 at 12:21 PM

..but..but..but..I thought the Dems were surging back?

The War Planner on October 5, 2010 at 12:22 PM

I soo want Scary Reid GONE!
Btw: Though I despise Mark Kirk with a passion I’ve decided that getting control of the senate is what’s important right now. I’ll vote for him in early voting next week…and then go home and bathe in bleach..

annoyinglittletwerp on October 5, 2010 at 12:22 PM

May it be, and even more so, on election night! This helps to take the sting out of what are IMHO very disappointing poll numbers in NY and CA. As for WV, for all the jokes about poor dumb mountain folks, they’re really pretty smart. Manchin has done well as governor (one of the better fiscal governors on that rating that just went out a few days ago). WV voters see that they can have their cake and eat it too by keeping Manchin home as governor and putting an Obama-stopper in the Senate.

jwolf on October 5, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Meanwhile on the SS Harry Reid,after hitting the
Angle Iceberg,
=================

Titanic extended Video – And The Band Played On

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qRDg9WS7fk

canopfor on October 5, 2010 at 12:23 PM

I forgot what the left’s narrative was with this woman…is she electable? Is there a nice democrat out there to answer that question?

Inanemergencydial on October 5, 2010 at 12:24 PM

Nevada will be up in the air until late on election night.

Maybe. We’ll see how much of the mud sticks to Angle that Reid will be slinging in the next few weeks. I think Nevadans are sick and tired of their high unemployment thanks to the Disser in Chief.

conservative pilgrim on October 5, 2010 at 12:27 PM

The downward slide begins…three weeks to go, and each week the lead of the Republicans will increase…

right2bright on October 5, 2010 at 12:28 PM

I personally think that the latest Dem surge is nothing more than what we saw with McCain, too. The behinders get a surge, but then it deflates.

By gosh, I think she’s going to pull this out.

AnninCA on October 5, 2010 at 12:29 PM

The downward slide begins…three weeks to go, and each week the lead of the Republicans will increase…

right2bright on October 5, 2010 at 12:28 PM

I think this is the last year we’ll see this, though. Did you catch that 70% of CO voters are early voters?

That’s really going to change the entire time schedule.

October surprise is going to become August surprise.

AnninCA on October 5, 2010 at 12:30 PM

11/2/10…….the only poll that counts!!!

200 seat CONSERVATIVE pickup or bust!!!

Kep up the emails, postings on FB, etc…DONT LET UP!!!

PappyD61 on October 5, 2010 at 12:31 PM

But but but Chris Matthews says she’s a kook and unelectable?

I can’t wait to watch MSNBC on election night!!

davek70 on October 5, 2010 at 12:33 PM

I hate to be an Eeyore, but I can’t shake the feeling that these are two elections where we’re setting ourselves up for heartache.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Ah, the sweet sound of turkeys falling from a helicopter unto their roost below.
Can’t wait for November.

Randy

williars on October 5, 2010 at 12:34 PM

11/2/10…….the only poll that counts!!!

200 seat CONSERVATIVE pickup or bust!!!

Kep up the emails, postings on FB, etc…DONT LET UP!!!

PappyD61 on October 5, 2010 at 12:31 PM”

YES! Any less than 100 seats is a loss! We have work to do!!

WhatsRight on October 5, 2010 at 12:35 PM

There are also Manchin-anigans going on as well. If anything comes of that prior to the election, I think we can bank this one.

Yasabe on October 5, 2010 at 12:38 PM

I hate to be an Eeyore, but I can’t shake the feeling that these are two elections where we’re setting ourselves up for heartache.

Maybe so in Nevada but I stand by my point about West Virginia. What’s going to change? The voters there hate Obama; that’s the only reason Manchin is behind. Nothing’s going to happen this month to make them hate Obama any less.

Allahpundit on October 5, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Maybe so in Nevada but I stand by my point about West Virginia. What’s going to change? The voters there hate Obama; that’s the only reason Manchin is behind. Nothing’s going to happen this month to make them hate Obama any less.
Allahpundit on October 5, 2010 at 12:38 PM

I hope you’re right. I just don’t have faith in WV voters all that much……I mean, they did continually re-elect that old Klansman. And Manchin is still very popular. Hopefully, their disgust with The One overrides all that.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM

I’m a Californian and I doubt Fiorina can win but I was sure Whitman would win. I see Rasmussen has Brown ahead. Un friggin believable!He was an atrocious Gov. and horrible Attorney General. Don’t know what to say….

sandee on October 5, 2010 at 12:48 PM

I hope you’re right. I just don’t have faith in WV voters all that much……I mean, they did continually re-elect that old Klansman. And Manchin is still very popular. Hopefully, their disgust with The One overrides all that.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM

Nothing will override that. Obama and the democrats want to kill off coal production. Everyone in WV knows that. Democrats may not win national office in WV for a long time.

darwin on October 5, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Allahpundit on October 5, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Me too, I think Nevada is a true toss-up, but I expect WV to keep tilting toward Raese. The Democrats will try some desperation attacks, but it won’t work. Raese’s business background is going to help in this election too.

“If you like your governor, you can keep your governor.”

forest on October 5, 2010 at 12:51 PM

For every American voter it is STOP OBAMA. If in doubt vote the “D” out … be safe.

tarpon on October 5, 2010 at 12:51 PM

I hope you’re right. I just don’t have faith in WV voters all that much……I mean, they did continually re-elect that old Klansman. And Manchin is still very popular. Hopefully, their disgust with The One overrides all that.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM

True, but they’ve been consistent about Obama. Hillary absolutely destroyed him in the primary, and even McCain beat him by 10 points, and they like him even less now than in 2008. The “blue dog” thing isn’t going to fly for Manchin either. Everyone has seen that Pelosi, Reid and Obama have gotten the votes when they needed them. Just don’t send any more Democrats to DC. They’ll keep Manchin in Charleston.

forest on October 5, 2010 at 12:55 PM

I hope you’re right. I just don’t have faith in WV voters all that much……I mean, they did continually re-elect that old Klansman. And Manchin is still very popular. Hopefully, their disgust with The One overrides all that.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 12:46 PM

It’s overriding his popularity now, so I think AP is right…what’s going to change that?

changer1701 on October 5, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Ah, the sweet sound of turkeys falling from a helicopter unto their roost below.
Can’t wait for November.
Randy

williars on October 5, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Made me think of one of the funniest tv episodes ever. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FXSnoy71Q4

coyoterex on October 5, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher

Yeah, baby. And I’m hoping we can boot Sherrod Brown out in 2014 when he won’t be running on an Obama ticket.

BuckeyeSam on October 5, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Going by RCP averages it’s currently 49-47 with 4 toss ups. The 4 races being NV, IL, WA, and WV.

Breakdown: NV (D +0.6), IL (R +0.8), WA (D +3.3), and WV (R +4.0)

We can do this, we can hit 51.

jhffmn on October 5, 2010 at 12:58 PM

At RedState, I saw this link to Big Journalism:

Breaking: In Wake of Taping, Ashjian’s ‘Tea Party of Nevada’ Chairman to Resign, Endorse Angle

The Chairman of the “Tea Party of Nevada,” Syd James (it is basically a party of two), arranged a meeting with the Angle camp under the premise that Ashjian would drop out and endorse Angle (Ashjian’s name would still be on the ballot). Ashjian has claimed that it was Angle who arranged the meeting, but James assures me that it he arranged it and he’s sorry he did….

If Angle made a mistake it was trusting Ashjian, but since James arranged the meeting, the Angle camp was trusting James, who is a highly respected doctor in Las Vegas.

As a result, James feels used by Ashjian and has told me he will resign from his position with the “Tea Party of Nevada” and endorse Angle. When’s the last time you heard of the head of one political party (if you want to call the “Tea Party of Nevada” a party) resigning to endorse another party’s candidate less than a month before the election?

If anything, these covert tapes show off Angle’s conservative “chops” and that everything she has said on the campaign trail is exactly what she believes behind closed doors. You don’t find that often in politics.

INC on October 5, 2010 at 1:01 PM

AP wrote this post? Huh. I didn’t look at the author for once and I still thought it was an Ed post. That was very evenhanded. Eeyore must only come out after 4 p.m.

conservative pilgrim on October 5, 2010 at 1:01 PM

but don’t worry about that.

I worry when Allahpundit isn’t worried. Gulp.

SouthernGent on October 5, 2010 at 1:02 PM

If anything, these covert tapes show off Angle’s conservative “chops” and that everything she has said on the campaign trail is exactly what she believes behind closed doors. You don’t find that often in politics.

INC on October 5, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Good news! I didn’t think Angle’s remarks were damaging at all. If anything, they were enlightening and encouraging that she isn’t a fraud. Rush said she should make a campaign ad out of it.

conservative pilgrim on October 5, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Wow, here comes more dirt on Whitman. Another employee dises Meg. At least according to the above headline story in the Chronicle. I wonder how many more “employees ” will be coming out with their stories. Of course Brown never did anything wrong…..

sandee on October 5, 2010 at 1:07 PM

conservative pilgrim on October 5, 2010 at 1:05 PM

I thought so–and the column was written by Ron Futrell, who lives in Las Vegas. He would know the local scene well.

INC on October 5, 2010 at 1:12 PM

Ugh. There is no reason for Nevada to be a toss up. Thanks Tea Party for giving us Sharron Angle!!!

terryannonline on October 5, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Thanks Tea Party for giving us Sharron Angle!!!

terryannonline on October 5, 2010 at 1:14 PM

The ‘tea party’(As if it was a homogenized entity…lol) forced Angle to run and kept others out of the primary?

Inanemergencydial on October 5, 2010 at 1:19 PM

Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher

Yeah, baby. And I’m hoping we can boot Sherrod Brown out in 2014 when he won’t be running on an Obama ticket.

BuckeyeSam on October 5, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Sherry Brown is up for re-election in 2012

buckichick1 on October 5, 2010 at 1:19 PM

John Raese is a good man and will make a great Senator. He was boxed in first by Jay Rockefeller who outspent him 18 to 1 to get elected in 1984 and then taking on Byrd who was a legend in WV. This is one where finally the good guys will win if the numbers hold up. I WARN EVERYONE THOUGH that politics in WV is very corrupt. If suddenly Manchin wins when counties that have 5,000 registered voters suddenly vote 8 to 9,000 people.

Jdripper on October 5, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Nevada is a toss-up still because the division is so stark. And, I think, because Nevada voters are worried that the pork from Reid could possibly help.

That’s a tough one for conservatives. Cut the pork? Cut the few bennies.

AnninCA on October 5, 2010 at 1:37 PM

but don’t worry about that.
I worry when Allahpundit isn’t worried. Gulp.
SouthernGent on October 5, 2010 at 1:02 PM

Actually, Allah and I seem to both be perpetual worriers (about elections). So when he’s NOT being Eeyorish about a race, it actually does boost my confidence level.

Vyce on October 5, 2010 at 1:40 PM

I hate to be an Eeyore, but I can’t shake the feeling that these are two elections where we’re setting ourselves up for heartache.

Vyce on October 5, 2010

What’s worse, totally selling it, coming up short and feeling the heartache or anticipating a possible defeat that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?

We all need to buck up and just push for every vote in every nook and cranny we can find them and let the chips fall where they may after we’ve exhausted ourselves.

We might find that all is well in the end.

JonPrichard on October 5, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Nothing’s going to happen this month to make them hate Obama any less.

Allahpundit on October 5, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Perhaps he will buy another dog and take it to church for a photo op.

Aviator on October 5, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Ugh. There is no reason for Nevada to be a toss up. Thanks Tea Party for giving us Sharron Angle!!!

terryannonline on October 5, 2010 at 1:14 PM

You’re constant whining about water over the dam is pathetic.

Go watch CNN’s new Rinofriendly Show #9 & Stepford wife and be happy.

portlandon on October 5, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Elsewhere in poll news: Fox shows Rob Portman continuing to destroy Lee Fisher

Yeah, baby. And I’m hoping we can boot Sherrod Brown out in 2014 when he won’t be running on an Obama ticket.

BuckeyeSam on October 5, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Ditto that, Buckeye. And Strickland is losing to Kasich for gov in Ohio, too.

How I wish Sherrod “I’m a hyper-liberal” Brown could be voted out in November. Between him and his braying, jackass wife, Connie Schultz (columnist for the Plain Dealer) I’ve had enough.

Early voting started in Ohio on 9/28.

GO OHIO…VOTE THE DEMS OUT!!!

GrannyDee on October 5, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Ugh. There is no reason for Nevada to be a toss up. Thanks Tea Party for giving us Sharron Angle!!!

terryannonline on October 5, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Nevada was never going to be a walk in the park. Reid is Senate Majority Leader, for goodness sake, and has all the Dem money and organizational power he can ask for.

You should be thanking the Tea Party for the level of national enthusiasm it has generated. We would not be anywhere near winning some of these races, including Nevada, without that enthusiasm.

Missy on October 5, 2010 at 1:54 PM

terryannonline on October 5, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Harry Reid is the Senate Majority leader akin to the stallion leader of a group of wild horses. As it is extremely difficult to bring down or trap the horse, it will be difficult as well to run Harry Reid to ground.

You act like Reid should be beaten by somewhere between 5-10 points. Imho, no matter who ran against Reid it was always going to be a close contest. And I predicted several months ago if Angle does win she will be do so be less than 2 percentage points, but having said that it doesn’t make her a terrible candidate, but it is simply a fact in boxing it is hard to take away the belt from the champ, as it difficult to beat a very prominent leader in the Senate.

technopeasant on October 5, 2010 at 2:01 PM

Ah, the sweet sound of turkeys falling from a helicopter unto their roost below.
Can’t wait for November.
Randy

williars on October 5, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Didn’t Jeremiah Wright say something about this?

Steve Z on October 5, 2010 at 2:10 PM

Angle does win she will be do so be less than 2 percentage points, but having said that it doesn’t make her a terrible candidate, but it is simply a fact in boxing it is hard to take away the belt from the champ, as it difficult to beat a very prominent leader in the Senate.

technopeasant on October 5, 2010 at 2:01 PM

The last time a Senate Majority Leader lost an election was Tom Daschle by John Thune by a very narrow margin in South Dakota, a very red state in Presidential elections. Thune was also better known than Angle, since he had been already elected to the House, and had narrowly lost a Senate election to Tim Johnson. This time around, Thune is such a strong candidate that no Democrat dared to challenge him!

Steve Z on October 5, 2010 at 2:25 PM

That is the kind of ad every Republican should be running. Dems can talk about being independent voices all they want. In reality they will rubber stamp every crap sandwich coming out of the WH.

angryed on October 5, 2010 at 2:29 PM

I need to shut down the browser for the next month.

Go away for a month and, hopefully, come back to…well, if not morning in America, at least a decent overnight gully-washer cleaning out the last few years of scum.

Problem is that we’ll then be checking the blogs every half hour for the rest of the year to see which of Obama’s cabinet, subcabinet, and czar brownshirts have decided to decamp to spend time with the family some place that doesn’t extradite.

JEM on October 5, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Reason Angle is finally pulling away from Reid?

Her latest ads over last 2 weeks are against Harry’s support for illegal aliens.

Who woulda thought?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb-zZM9-vB0

fred5678 on October 5, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Once again, a little reminder for those considering giving to the Angle campaign:

Nevada’s early voting starts eleven days from today, and by the time Election Day rolls around, 65% of those who are going to vote in NV will have done so already. Money given in the last week of the election will have 1/3 the effectiveness that it will have today. PLEASE DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DONATE.

Now, lets beat the hide off of the charlatan from Searchlight.

JohnGalt23 on October 5, 2010 at 4:29 PM

Who would have thought? Even with those Democrat Wave polls. How can this be with the incoming return of the Democrat Tsunami that the so-called “Independents” are supposedly leaning towards? I’m utterly confused. But I’ve always been confused by people with no personal philosophy about how their government ought to work and no backbone or commitment to stand up for it. Wishy-Washy folks who only worry about what’s coming out for TV Sweeps Week, whose dancing with the stars, and seeking the autograph of the winner of Big Brother tend to have the confusing effect on me.

Sultry Beauty on October 5, 2010 at 4:53 PM

there’s practically nothing Manchin can do to dent that lead

I hope you’re right. However, some of our southern counties have learned the ways of, ahem, “Creative Voting”. Let’s just hope it’s not close.

humdinger on October 5, 2010 at 7:31 PM