Senate polls in WI, CO, PA, KY look good for GOP

posted at 1:45 pm on October 2, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Over the last 24 hours, a series of polls for Senate races have been released from Marist and Rasmussen, and all of them look good for the GOP.  In three states which would provide key pickups for Republicans, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, their candidates have taken leads and have picked up some momentum heading into the last month of the campaign.  In all three states, the losses will be a profound statement of Democratic erosion.

PENNSYLVANIA: Democrats got this seat via a party defection on the part of Arlen Specter, who then got as badly rejected by his new party as he did his old one.  That hasn’t helped Democrats keep a grip on this seat, and one has to wonder whether Specter’s switch hurt them more with a tough primary fight than it did Republicans in the end.  Pat Toomey has extended his lead in both the Rasmussen and Marist polls to nine points, 49/40 and 51/42, respectively.  The Marist poll is a fresh entry in the survey sweepstakes, and since we’ve reviewed Rasmussen extensively in the PA race, let’s take a closer look at Marist instead.

The enthusiasm numbers among likely voters for both are interesting; combining those expressing at least some enthusiasm, they’re close to tied, with Toomey at 87% and Sestak at 80%.  However, 55% of Toomey voters consider themselves “very enthusiastic,” while only 35% of Sestak voters consider themselves at the same level of enthusiasm.  In the end, this could be bigger than a nine-point blowout.  The same dynamic takes place in the gubernatorial race as well, and Marist has Republican Tom Corbett twelve points ahead of Democrat Dan Onorato, 53/41.  With two big Republican runaway races at the top of the ticket, Democrats will likely see a down-ticket wave that will mean they lose the closer races in Congressional and state-legislature contests, too.

WISCONSIN: Rasmussen released a poll showing a 12-point lead for Republican challenger Ron Johnson over incumbent Democrat and progressive banner-carrier Russ Feingold earlier this week.  Marist confirms that finding, showing Johnson leading by a slightly smaller margin, 52/45.  Both candidates hold their party almost perfectly, but Johnson has a 23-point lead among independents, 58/35.  The very enthusiastic among voters favor Johnson, 60/38, while the less enthusiastic favor Feingold 55/42.

The gubernatorial poll from Marist looks even better, with Scott Walker ahead of Tom Barrett by eight at 51/43.  This is another traditionally Democratic state that appears to be going from blue to red without a stop in purple-land.

COLORADO: Marist confirms that Ken Buck has moved out to a strong lead over incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet, 50/42.  In this race, independents split almost equally, 44/43 for Buck, with party unity the rule again.  Enthusiasm will play a big role in Colorado, as Buck wins the “very enthusiastic” vote 59/34, while Bennet does better among the less enthusiastic.  Bennet wins the Denver/Boulder area and loses everywhere else in the state, including Denver’s suburbs.

In this state, though, the news gets tempered by the debacle of the Dan Maes bid for governor.  Democratic mayor of Denver John Hickenlooper gets 48% of the vote in a three-way race.  That will mean that Democrats will keep a toehold in a state that should have flipped back to full red in this cycle — a real missed opportunity.

KENTUCKY: Polling is traditionally difficult in Kentucky, as Democrats tend to be well-entrenched and a lot less liberal than their colleagues from other states.  Rasmussen, however, continues to see Rand Paul with a significant lead over Jack Conway, 49/38.  That is down from a 54/39 lead three weeks ago, and Paul has dropped below the 50% threshold that usually means a comfortable position this close to an election.  Still, the issues are with Paul, and strongly so.  Sixty-two percent of likely voters want ObamaCare repealed, and the same percentage says that federal government policies have the nation on the wrong course.  Those aren’t numbers likely to produce a Democratic victory in the Senate in 2010, no matter who that candidate might be.


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Sestak’s old House seat is also an easy pickup. Thanks Joe!

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 1:50 PM

red wave… red sea… moses parting the waves? making way for the tax payers to escape Barack oPharroh?

theres a better way of tooling the analogy im sure. i just thought of it…

Drunk Report on October 2, 2010 at 1:51 PM

What is the pollsters’ obsession with Toomey and PA. I swear that race gets polled every single day by a different firm.

swamp_yankee on October 2, 2010 at 1:55 PM

But but but, Bob Schrum told me the dems were going to hold both the House and the Senate….

Capitalist Infidel on October 2, 2010 at 1:57 PM

I expect us to win all those seats. And two of those are just holding seats we already have (Kentucky and Ohio).

We need WA, CA, DE, WV, AR, IL, etc.

dczombie on October 2, 2010 at 1:58 PM

What is the pollsters’ obsession with Toomey and PA. I swear that race gets polled every single day by a different firm.

swamp_yankee on October 2, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Maybe leftovers from the last election when Arlen trashed Toomey, i.e, Toomey is just too radically conservative to be elected. The pollsters are stunned and ocnfused that he is doing so well for an extremist. :)

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 1:59 PM

Russ Feingold like to portray himself as the “lonely independent voice in Washington”. Well, in another month ol’ Russ is gonna get a lot lonelier.

PackerBronco on October 2, 2010 at 2:01 PM

theres a better way of tooling the analogy im sure. i just thought of it…

Drunk Report on October 2, 2010 at 1:51 PM

Øbama may be from Hawaii, but this is one wave that he won’t be riding. Wipeout!

Kafir on October 2, 2010 at 2:02 PM

Watch the polls. Keep in mind that dems like to rush people to the polls at the last hour.

William Amos on October 2, 2010 at 2:05 PM

Continue to pursue and fight till election day. We are in the home stretch – Let’s continue the fight against liberalism

hawkman on October 2, 2010 at 2:05 PM

We need WA, CA, DE, WV, AR, IL, etc.

dczombie on October 2, 2010 at 1:58 PM

If we take back the house, we don’t need to take back the Senate. And it would just give Obama a GOP congress to blame in 2012.

ladyingray on October 2, 2010 at 2:09 PM

Watch the polls. Keep in mind that dems like to rush people to the polls at the last hour.

William Amos on October 2, 2010 at 2:05 PM

Especially unregistered voters. They swarm the polls at the last minute, where there are not enough provisional ballots.

They make a stink, it’s too late to go get more provisional ballots, and some official caves in, and say, “Well, let them vote on the machines, then.” Those votes cannot be followed up on as the provisional ballots can be. The Dems did this in PIttsburgh in 2004.

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 2:11 PM

If we take back the house, we don’t need to take back the Senate. And it would just give Obama a GOP congress to blame in 2012.

ladyingray on October 2, 2010 at 2:09 PM

A GOP Senate could stop some radical judicial nominations. It could also refuse to ratify the START treaty with Russia. (Obama may not have the votes for the treaty right now, and a few more no’s would make this a sure thing.)

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 2:14 PM

Good point on the judges, but as long as Grahamnesty is in there, POTUS will get his nominations.

ladyingray on October 2, 2010 at 2:21 PM

I’m impressed with the democrats help in Colorado with their slogan “Buck Up”.

dragondrop on October 2, 2010 at 2:24 PM

are these leads big enough to offset the acorn/seiu/working families party voter fraud?

reliapundit on October 2, 2010 at 2:29 PM

But but but, Bob Schrum told me the dems were going to hold both the House and the Senate….

Capitalist Infidel on October 2, 2010 at 1:57 PM

The only thing Schrum is going to be holding on election night is his johnson.

Aviator on October 2, 2010 at 2:30 PM

Good point on the judges, but as long as Grahamnesty is in there, POTUS will get his nominations.

ladyingray on October 2, 2010 at 2:21 PM

True, although since Grahamnesty is up in 2012, he may decide to be a fake conservative to head off a primary challenge after what happened to Murkowski in Alaska and Bennett in Utah.

Hey, he might even oppose amnesty and say we should “build the dang wall…..”

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 2:36 PM

Of course the Senate matters.

1. Obama is still going to blame the GOP for obstructionism, so he will have his “bad guy” no matter what.

2. All committee heads will be Republicans and the GOP have power to investigate the administration and screen all cabinet and judicial appointees.

3. A GOP House and Senate can pass laws and put force Obama to veto popular legislation and put him on the defensive.

4. The path to 60+ runs through 51 and 52. We might get 60+ in 2012 and it will be much easier if we clean up this year.

swamp_yankee on October 2, 2010 at 2:43 PM

The wave will crest in November. Sunami potential.

BHO Jonestown on October 2, 2010 at 2:44 PM

And it would just give Obama a GOP congress to blame in 2012.

ladyingray on October 2, 2010 at 2:09 PM

I keep hearing this but just keep in mind that Obama is the one who’ll be vetoing legislation not the GOP congress.

Oldnuke on October 2, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Make sure the provisionals are in place, add poll watchers,Lawrey up.

Col.John Wm. Reed on October 2, 2010 at 2:51 PM

And the good news just keeps getting better.

powerpro on October 2, 2010 at 3:00 PM

Watch the polls. Keep in mind that dems like to rush people to the polls at the last hour.

William Amos on October 2, 2010 at 2:05 PM

They also like to find a few thousand misplaced ballots after the votes have been tallied.

Chris of Rights on October 2, 2010 at 3:07 PM

Joe Sestak is a flaming socialist moonbat. Good riddance, Joe. Maybe you can take that “unpaid” high-level advisory committee position that Obama offered you when you have a lot of free time on your hands starting in January.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 3:12 PM

The crowd at the moonbat rally seems to have thinned considerably. Maybe the buses are leaving or they won’t be paid for any more hours today.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Good grief. No wonder Air America failed. No one wants to hear these miserable loons whine and cry all day.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 3:51 PM

The crowd on the mall is gone; they are exiting like rats off a sinking ship. LOL

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:04 PM

I expect us to win all those seats. And two of those are just holding seats we already have (Kentucky and Ohio).

We need WA, CA, DE, WV, AR, IL, etc.

dczombie on October 2, 2010 at 1:58 PM

..so, we could your guyses’ help[ out here to dump that bleeding puss-bag, Senator Ma’am this NOvember. Anything will do..$10..$20..$50..anything!

AN_EEEEEE_THING!

Thanks in advance.

The War Planner on October 2, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Of course the Senate matters.

1. Obama is still going to blame the GOP for obstructionism, so he will have his “bad guy” no matter what.

2. All committee heads will be Republicans and the GOP have power to investigate the administration and screen all cabinet and judicial appointees.

3. A GOP House and Senate can pass laws and put force Obama to veto popular legislation and put him on the defensive.

4. The path to 60+ runs through 51 and 52. We might get 60+ in 2012 and it will be much easier if we clean up this year.

swamp_yankee on October 2, 2010 at 2:43 PM

Very astute, S Y.
A Senate majority of 51 or 52 might lead to one or two party switchers to add to the margin. Then, in 2012, there’s a chance to peel off a few more seats, and to primary RINOs like L Graham who don’t actually represent their constituents.

Obama is whining about the Republicans NOW when they are in the minority, so what if he whines a little louder if they take the majority? I hope a Republican controlled Congress gives him something (sensible legislation that is based on Constitutional principles) to whine about. Let Obama be the Vetoer in Chief for the next two years.

Red State State of Mind on October 2, 2010 at 4:12 PM

The crowd at the moonbat rally seems to have thinned considerably…..
Philly on October 2, 2010 at 3:48 PM

yeah, it looked like it was about a Million people when it peaked, now it’s winding down, amybe only 600 or so Thousand left./s

Red State State of Mind on October 2, 2010 at 4:15 PM

LOL. Looks like about 600.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Is that the Black Panther Party up on the podium behind the speakers? Why do they cover their faces?

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:23 PM

The mall is empty! LOLOLOL! Literally. OMG.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:24 PM

Change my crowd estimate to 60, and that would be the black group dressed in dreadlocks, paramilitary gear with bandanas over faces. Oh, and a smattering of communists.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Nothing says America like George Clinton and Parliament dressed like Central American guerillas. Bow-wow-wow yippee-yo-yippee-yay.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:30 PM

They’re gonna turn this mutha’ out.

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:34 PM

There you have it. Democratic control for four years in Congress, and two in the White House has been exactly what many predicted: an ideologically-driven disaster of epic proportions. For years, progressives obfuscated their true intentions, because even they knew most Americans couldn’t stomach them. The elections of 2006 and 2008 changed everything. Progressives bought into their own hype, believing they had pulled off a multi-generational transformation of the American mindset. As a result, they showed Americans their true colors: unbridled arrogance, utter contempt for the average citizen’s intellect, and a ham-fisted, never let a crisis go to waste determination to bend the electorate to their will, using government as a club.

That’s why they’re going down in November. And the most satisfying aspect of the whole scenario is this: despite every attempt they’ve made to blame anyone and everyone else for their problems, they brought it on themselves.

Schadenfreude on October 2, 2010 at 4:38 PM

The four Senate races to watch are the four tossups: IL, WV, NV, and WA. If we win all four, we will take the Senate. If we lose just one, we probably won’t, since CA, CT, and NY are all leaning Dem (and DE is gone).

Jon0815 on October 2, 2010 at 4:41 PM

Sarah Palin’s “Take Back The 20″ website:

http://www.takebackthe20.com/

ProudPalinFan on October 2, 2010 at 4:48 PM

Read this about Mike Kelly; he even crafted a BETTER “Pledge To America” but his is called “Contract With The 3rd Congressional District.” One page, with bullet points. He’s six points ahead in the polls, even though Dahlkemper was born and raised in Erie; the family business is jewelry, and they have the money. I’ve seen it.

If you don’t remember her, she’s the only female that was with the “blue dogs” along Bart Stupak on Obamacare being passed. Therefore, she got all of us “Stupack’d.” That was my Tea Party sign.

ProudPalinFan on October 2, 2010 at 5:02 PM

True, although since Grahamnesty is up in 2012…

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 2:36 PM

No such luck. He was just reelected in 2008, meaning we won’t have another chance to get rid of him till 2014.

backwoods conservative on October 2, 2010 at 5:20 PM

Russ Feingold like to portray himself as the “lonely independent voice in Washington”. Well, in another month ol’ Russ is gonna get a lot lonelier.

PackerBronco on October 2, 2010 at 2:01 PM

Feingold :
Life time rating ACU (American Conservative Union) = 12.74
By the ADA (Americans for Democrat Action) = 95 percent.

Feingold is 12 percent conservative and 95 percent liberal.

Not exactly a crossover voter.

Dasher on October 2, 2010 at 5:56 PM

Is that the Black Panther Party up on the podium behind the speakers? Why do they cover their faces?

Philly on October 2, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Maybe they work in the White House.

slickwillie2001 on October 2, 2010 at 6:25 PM

Both Rasmussen and realclearpolitics have the Senate very close at this point. The Rasmussen “balance of power” analysis for the Senate has the Dems at just 49-47 with 4 true “toss up” races: WV, IL, NV and WA. If you look at the movement in the races, ALL of the races have moved in the Repubs direction (even WA), except for DE, which has shifted into “solid Dem” territory.

On another point, I live in a gerrymandered Dem district. I ran into our very strong Republican challenger last night, and he tells me that his internal polls have him actually running ahead of our garden-variety lib Dem incumbent, who seems to be copying the Martha Coakley playbook on how to lose elections.

johnboy on October 2, 2010 at 6:30 PM

On another point, I live in a gerrymandered Dem district. I ran into our very strong Republican challenger last night, and he tells me that his internal polls have him actually running ahead of our garden-variety lib Dem incumbent, who seems to be copying the Martha Coakley playbook on how to lose elections.

johnboy on October 2, 2010 at 6:30 PM

Dick Morris mentioned this week that these analyses/predictions are based on the only available public polls, but many districts are not being polled because they are assumed safe. Chicken-egg.

slickwillie2001 on October 2, 2010 at 6:45 PM

http://yourerie.com/fulltext/?nxd_id=139365

Video of Kelly/Dahlkemper interview by local media. He is following me on Twitter so I sent him a message and “hooked him up” to my blog so he could see my support.

He better campaign hard in this neck of the woods; if he’s gonna knock on my door I will be starstruck! :D

ProudPalinFan on October 2, 2010 at 6:45 PM

ha ha ha!

Suck it, Sestak!

WaltzingMtilda on October 2, 2010 at 8:41 PM

S-word…sorry, has the sassy tonight.

WaltzingMtilda on October 2, 2010 at 8:42 PM

COLORADO:
You left out the most important point here in the Rockies: Buck is ahead in spite of the Colorado Republican Party and its old dictator, Dick Wadhams. The Wad is the primary reason for the Maes debacle because he insists on having the final say on candidates for office and denying others an opportunity to run. He is an inept, self-styled “kingmaker” whose stranglehold (along with his friends) of the upper levels of the party in Colorado have destroyed the party’s ability to field strong candidates – all of which is easily seen in the makeup of the legislature, the governor’s office, and even county/local offices that he sees fit to interfere with.
If Hick wins Nov 2, Wad needs to go Nov 3!

n0doz on October 2, 2010 at 8:52 PM

My last year voting for PA would have been nice to pull the lever for Toomey over Specter. But sending Sestak on his merry way will do.

hawkdriver on October 2, 2010 at 9:32 PM

You can bank on CT. Linda McMahon will win by 4%.

SouthernGent on October 2, 2010 at 10:46 PM

Throw NV in there too. Reid is hay-ted here like you can’t believe.

Mojave Mark on October 3, 2010 at 12:08 AM

Here in Florida, Rubio is looking strong and Crist is fading. I sincerely hope Crist finishes behind Meek, in the 3 way race. I’m still trying to figure out how certain Democrats get away with supporting a phony like Crist.

The 4 races you mentioned will be nice pick-ups. Will they bring out enough momentum to take those Western seats the Republicans need to get the majority? One can only hope.

bflat879 on October 3, 2010 at 12:13 AM

That’s why they’re going down in November. And the most satisfying aspect of the whole scenario is this: despite every attempt they’ve made to blame anyone and everyone else for their problems, they brought it on themselves.

Schadenfreude on October 2, 2010 at 4:38 PM

Thanks, that was an excellent article.

2ipa on October 3, 2010 at 12:43 AM

COLORADO:
You left out the most important point here in the Rockies: Buck is ahead in spite of the Colorado Republican Party and its old dictator, Dick Wadhams….

n0doz on October 2, 2010 at 8:52 PM

Oh Lord there really is a politician named Dick Wadhams; I had to look it up to be sure. Does it get any better than that!

slickwillie2001 on October 3, 2010 at 1:17 AM

Sestak’s old House seat is also an easy pickup. Thanks Joe!

Wethal on October 2, 2010 at 1:50 PM

This is the nicest thing Sestak has done since he got FIRED from his job in the Pentagon…

Khun Joe on October 4, 2010 at 12:28 AM