Rasmussen: Democratic affiliation hits eight-year low
posted at 12:15 pm on October 1, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
Media outlets using polls that oversample Democrats might have missed this not-exactly shocking trend. Rasmussen has polled on party affiliation since 2002, and this month reports that the percentage of adults in the general population who identify as Democrats has dropped to a new low. This is only a mixed blessing for Republicans, though, since they are not necessarily attracting those who leave:
For the second month in a row, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has fallen to a record low.
In September, 34.6% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. That’s down nearly half a percentage point from amonth ago, a full percentage point from two months ago, and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.
At the same time, the number of Republicans slipped from 33.8% in August to 33.1% last month.
The number of Adults not affiliated with either major party is now at 32.3%.
In other words, both parties have lost traction over the last few months, but Democrats have lost it at a much faster rate. The partisan gap widened just slightly from 1.2% to 1.5%, more or less a dead heat, which underscores the loss of opportunity for the GOP. The gap is still far smaller than most media outlets show in their own polls, though, usually by seriously underrepresenting Republicans.
There could be a couple of reasons for this. The loss of affiliation by Democrats is fairly easy to explain. Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress built up a large edge by promising a post-partisan approach to governance as well as a moderate, fiscally-responsible agenda. Not only did they not succeed in doing so, it quickly became apparent that they never intended on either. The moderates and independents they attracted have therefore left, as well as some core Democrats as well.
That doesn’t make them Republicans, though. They may be open to switching affiliations depending on how the GOP acts once it takes control of the House, and possibly the Senate. If they seriously act to cut spending, promote growth, and reduce the national debt through serious reform, Republicans have an opportunity to convince the skeptics and grow their ranks. If not, then these discontented Democrats will simply remain independents.
These days, it’s easier to remain independent anyway. Fewer state primaries are closed, so the old argument that party affiliation was necessary to have an impact on nominations doesn’t apply to the same degree it once did. Also, let’s face it: independents are the New Cool. They get wooed, people worry over their opinion, and in general they decide elections. There isn’t as much attraction to either party at the moment, and the Tea Party movement makes it clear that people can have an enormous impact without having to play within the party structure. It would not surprise me to see party affiliations continue to erode for both parties even if the GOP delivers entirely on their promises in this cycle.
Blowback
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Again, if Dem affiliation is this low, then HOW is Barry in the mid-40s in approval? Logically, he has to be in the high to mid-30s.
lizzie beth on October 1, 2010 at 12:22 PM
I left the Republican party in the mid to late ’90s. Gov.Pete Wilson disgusted me so much I said to hell with them. I was a libertarian then (as now) but remain an independent; no way would I join the goofball Libertarian Party. I usually vote Republican, never Democrat(in a general).On occasion I vote 3rd party or not vote as in the case of Dole vs Clinton.
However, I hate to see closed primaries disappear. I think Democrats and Republicans should choose their candidates without voter interference from each other or independents.
cartooner on October 1, 2010 at 12:30 PM
The problem is that both parties tend to alienate people who aren’t drinking their kool-aid. Any time a Republican says anything about a “big tent” the far right of the party gets their panties in a twist. Any time a Democrat wants to just leave the people alone and not shove a socialist agenda down our throats, they get hammered on by the far left. The result is that the two parties march themselves to more extreme positions in their respective directions with both of them wanting to use government to force their social agendas on us.
Hey, here’s an idea … leave me alone to enforce my OWN social agenda inside my home. Leave me free to make my OWN choices and mind you own damned business. Stop worrying about what your neighbor does and worry about what YOU do and puhleeze stop trying to codify your social values in law.
That goes for both parties equally.
crosspatch on October 1, 2010 at 12:30 PM
It’s artificial. The media likes Obama… if you haven’t noticed.
tetriskid on October 1, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Maybe if the pollster add a question such as “How likely was it that your answers to these questions were influenced by whether or not you felt you would be branded a racist?” Not at all likely, Somewhat likely, Likely, or Very Likely
Lily on October 1, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Dang. It took George W Bush 6 years and a second term to get the Republican numbers down this low.
Obama crashes and burns faster because he is “smarter”.
portlandon on October 1, 2010 at 12:34 PM
We can begin by outlawing racial preferences and quotas in hiring and in university admissions.
Emperor Norton on October 1, 2010 at 12:35 PM
I agree. The Republicans ruined their brand outside of natsec with their own free-spending ways. The Democrats promised the moon (but not less spending) and failed to deliver. Is it not surprising that there’s a wait-and-see attitude in the electorate?
No party has proven that they can be trusted on anything other than a probationary basis. It remains to be seen if the Republicans will live up to their promises. FWIW, they seem more sincere and factual this cycle – to my conservo-libertarian independent mind.
JeffWeimer on October 1, 2010 at 12:36 PM
yes this is exactly what I said last night on the HRC O 12 Gallup ‘poll’ Ed says-
I said-
and it will happen. Let’s see the GOP earn it this time
folks who stuck with DUbyah through NCLB, Medicare PT D, Amnesty, yet bxch and moan about Big Dawgs BJ and subsequent lie about said BJ or HRC Tuzla Tussle are missing the boat
Let the GOP PROVE itself after we put them in power this yr, if they roll over in ’12 once ROmney is elected and act like they did under Dubyah we will all swing back to Hillary in 16.
Respond to the people or prepare to lose again in 16.
and GOTV!
ginaswo on October 1, 2010 at 12:38 PM
I tend to agree. BUT…those primaries should be party-funded and run if they are to be closed, as it is a party and not electorate matter. The only election the State should be concerned with is a general election.
JeffWeimer on October 1, 2010 at 12:40 PM
..naw. Barbecue Barack’s just got more gimmicks.
The War Planner on October 1, 2010 at 12:41 PM
We all have a “wait and see” attitude regarding the GOP. I’ve been saying for months that the GOP should not take the events of this year as an endorsement, but as a sign that the slumbering populace is awake.
We’re awake, and we’re watching you.
And if you forget who you represent, we’ll replace you, and we don’t care if you have a D or an R by your name.
Chris of Rights on October 1, 2010 at 12:48 PM
cartooner on October 1, 2010 at 12:30 PM
As long as both major parties have major party status in all 50 states, nomination of candidates is going to be, by default, a public process. That means you open yourself up to people playing certain legal hinky games with your nomination process.
I understand the Libertarians do their nomination solely by convention. You want that process for either Dems or Reps?
BradSchwartze on October 1, 2010 at 12:51 PM
This is a Gallup poll of “Adults,” not registered voters or likely voters. We can assume that all illegal immigrants interviewed said they identified with the Democratic party, throwing off the numbers a bit.
Emperor Norton on October 1, 2010 at 12:51 PM
If the Republicans take the House and hold the line on taxes and spending, their numbers will grow over the next two years. Gallup says that 42% of voters call themselves “conservative”–If Republican candidates and elected officials become truly conservative, conservative voters will become Republicans.
Voters are turning to Republicans this cycle because they’re not Democrats, who screwed things up. To win in 2012, Republicans must prove they know how to govern.
Steve Z on October 1, 2010 at 12:57 PM
OT
Wow, Rush is taking the RINOs and Mittbots in the party, a good many of whom comment here, and who constantly complain about Palin, ODonnell, Paladino et al to the woodshed today!! You know, the go along to get along types who don’t want “drama” or controversy in their candidates.
james23 on October 1, 2010 at 1:01 PM
Maybe that’s not the metric we should be looking at in these highly volatile times. Perhaps Americans are getting the idea that they don’t have to be a member of a political party to make a difference at the ballot box. If this continues the major parties will have to be less centralized and more reflective of the electorate, wherever that may be.
JonPrichard on October 1, 2010 at 1:03 PM
Anyone who did not listen to Rush during the first hour of his show this morning, needs to go to his website later and read the transcript or find some way to listen to a replay of it. I hope he shamed Republicans and Conservatives who are criticizing Sarah Palin, Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnell and others who are good people and have had the guts to run on their Conservative platforms even though they may have lead less then perfect lives. They are patriotic Americans, just like most of us, who have put their lives and reputations on the line for their Country, and we should support them, over these crooked, pompous Democrats that are running for office.
Susanboo on October 1, 2010 at 1:12 PM
Pretty much the same here. I *did* register Libertarian at one point until I saw that Libertarian with a large “L” has about as much in common with libertarianism (small “l”) as the Democratic party has with democracy. I see the Republicans as “less dangerous” for the most part. I am currently registered Republican but am not really one of those “conservative first, republican second” RINOs. I am more of a “I needed to join the party to get the ballot information stuff” RINOs.
crosspatch on October 1, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Another former Republican(got out in 1986 when Ronnie started kissing Jerry Falwell’s azz too much)conservative Libertarian minded Independent. I could never be a Democrat as I hate Communists. I could be a Republican again, although they would have to dump the Social Conservative BS. As much as I hate Commies, I don’t like the religious Right Theocrats much better. I never vote Democrat, so that still kinda makes me a Republican I guess….
adamsmith on October 1, 2010 at 1:27 PM
I dropped my Republican tag after the 2008 primary here in FL when RINO Crist threw his support behind RINO McCain. The next week I re-registered as NPA. F’m. The RNC can no longer “assume” they have me in their corner. I vote for Conservatives. Don’t see one on the ballot. Too bad, no vote. No more Buckley rule for voting. RINOs confuse the electorate. Let them see the real Socialist and recoil in horror. Voting for an electable RINO is the slow socialist death march. Never again by my hand will I support a RINO. Only Conservatives from now on.
Dandapani on October 1, 2010 at 2:50 PM
Crosspatch has it right about both major parties alienating the great majority of voters who don’t like the extremes. The reason those disaffected with the Dems are not rushing to the Republicans is because they think the Republicans are doing the same thing as the Dems and expecting a different result.
That is, of course, insanity.
Limbaugh is a hypocrite. If Democratic candidates had the same failiings as the ones he’s championing, he’d be blasting them day in and day out. Same goes for Hannity and Levin. There are good and bad candidates on both sides, but Limbaugh’s such a simpleton–or regards the dittoheads as such–that his only solution is to reflexively vote against anyone with a “D” after his/her name.
That’s not using your God-given brain. Or free will. And it’s certainly not being a responsible voter.
Meredith on October 1, 2010 at 3:51 PM
You’re just flailing. Trying to establish some sort of a moral equivalence between the two major parties is not going to hold back the coming tsunami against the Democrats–especially at this late date!
That works for me! And it will compensate for decades of labor unions distributing election-slate cards to people just before Election Day so they could vote the straight Democratic ticket.
Emperor Norton on October 1, 2010 at 4:08 PM
Moral equivalence? Your argument is they do bad things, so that gives us license to do likewise. Doubling down on corruption and stupid is a surefire way to turn things around, right?
You, Norton, are just a braindead partisan who cares more about ideology than country.
And that goes for Limbaugh, too.
Meredith on October 1, 2010 at 4:33 PM
No, my argument is that Democrats do bad things, so it’s only logical that America throws them out of office. Only you have suggested here that anyone ought to copy the moves of the corrupt Democrats.
Emperor Norton on October 1, 2010 at 5:18 PM
I strongly disagree. I was an aloof independent all of my life, letting other people choose the alternatives I had on the table on election day – until 2004. A friend persuaded me to join the Republican Party and change it from within, even if only through voting in primaries. I was living in PA that year, and Toomey came very close to beating Specter.
Six years later, things have improved. But they don’t improve when voters behave like fickle females expecting to be wooed. Wooed? By a bunch of untrustworthy politicians who will say anything to get into your electoral pants?
Get off the fence, independents! Participate! Do your homework, and don’t let the partisan media feed you their narratives.
disa on October 1, 2010 at 9:58 PM
In all honesty, you should direct the lion’s share of your libertarian outrage toward the progressives. They are far more interested in controlling just about every aspect of your behavior except fornication.
Techology and sex, the new opiates of the masses. While your nose is in your iphone, your friendly Democrats are stealing your liberty.
disa on October 1, 2010 at 10:07 PM
You are quite wrong about Rush, Meredith. Stop parroting liberal crap. Love of country necessitates an ideology of integrity, otherwise you lose your way too easily. Rush clowns around and that’s OK. But don’t be fooled – he takes the welfare of America quite seriously, unlike the Ruling Class who are most interested in their own place at the table of power and privilege (unearned and paid for by We The People).
disa on October 1, 2010 at 10:15 PM