Rothenberg warns Dems that Senate can still be lost

posted at 12:15 pm on September 30, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

After Christine O’Donnell won the Republican nomination for the Senate race in Delaware, Democrats appeared to heave a sigh of relief.  The long-shot path to losing the Senate appeared to require the GOP to take Joe Biden’s old seat, and with Mike Castle sidelined, their control of one chamber of Congress looked assured.  Not so fast, warns political analyst and prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg at CQ Politics:

Delaware’s Republican primary may well have lulled Democrats into a sense of complacency about their ability to hold the Senate after November’s elections. They would be wise to wake up if they want to avoid a nasty surprise on election night. …

With a month to go until Nov. 2, Republicans have a clear advantage in five seats held by Democrats, with another five seats still in play.

Unless things change, Republicans will likely hold all 18 of their seats up this cycle. No GOP incumbent is in any trouble — even Sens. Richard M. Burr(N.C.) and David Vitter (La.), who seemed at some risk early on, look headed for comfortable victories — and Republican open seats appear to be at limited risk.

Rothenberg figures the GOP to take seats away from Democrats in North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The GOP has an edge in Illinois as well, giving them six pickups.  If Ken Buck stays ahead in Colorado and Sharron Angle can take advantage of Harry Reid’s unpopularity in Nevada, that will be eight seats.

Republicans would just need to split four other races in Washington, Connecticut, California, and West Virginia — and this is where it starts to look interesting.  John Raese is moving ahead of Joe Manchin in WV, where conservative voters don’t want to send another Democrat to the Senate to replace Robert Byrd.  Linda McMahon is closing in on Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut, making it a virtual dead heat.  And the news out of Washington suddenly got worse for Democrats, according to the latest Rasmussen survey:

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray and Republican challenger Dino Rossi are back to a virtual tie in Washington’s race for U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rossi picking up 48% support, while Murray earns 47% of the vote when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Two weeks ago, Murray moved to a modest 51% to 46% lead over Rossi when leaners were part of the totals. In 10 previous surveys from January through August, the candidates have been within two points of each other seven times. Murray’s support has ranged from 45% to 50%, while Rossi has picked up 46% to 49% of the vote.

Rossi wins the independent vote by a wide margin, 60/32 with leaners.  He wins thirtysomethings by a wider margin than he loses younger voters, and ties Murray among seniors.  Rossi also wins every income demographic except <$20K voters, with majorities in all but the $20-40K demo.  Rossi also has a slight edge on favorability, 50/46 to Murray’s 47/48, which may influence how late-breaking voters decide.  Also helping Rossi will be the wide majority that believes that federal policies have the country on the wrong course, 54%, as opposed to only 29% that endorse the policies represented by Murray.

Republicans have a shot at all four races mentioned by Rothenberg as the long shots.  It’s possible to pick up not eight or nine, but eleven or even twelve.  It’s still a long shot to do so, but a big wave on Election Day may carry Connecticut and California, while Rossi seems to be picking a good time to show momentum, as voters will start casting ballots by mail in the next couple of weeks.  It certainly will make for an exciting Election Night.


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I think the Dems kinda want to lose the Senate. Then they can watch Obama hike taxes stalling the economy even moreso and Obama can blame the Republicans in 2012.

jeffn21 on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

I am almost getting to fear taking BOTH houses and losing BOTH of our best sales tools (Pelosi and Reid) before 2012. Especially if we barely win the Senate, to see one of the Maine Madams do the final sellout and switch parties.

michaelo on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Close races in Democrat strongholds will be stolen by Leftists. Washington state has screwed Rossi before, and if it’s close, they’ll do it again.

If these races aren’t won decisively on election night, they will all remain in the “D” column.

IronDioPriest on September 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM

once again I chime in and say the DE seat will be easier to pick up than NV. Not b/c Sharron wont get the votes, but b/c the Dems will pull out ALL THE STOPS, all the shenanigans to steal it in NV. They tried and came close to stealing it from HRC in our primaries. think of all the union workers in LV, they can easily be kept from polls on shifts, etc etc, which is what they pulled in 08 Dem primaries..

anyway GOP pls if you are counting on NV, SEND ATTYS, send poll monitors, hell send the FBI,

I suggest doubling down on DE

ginaswo on September 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM

IronDioPriest

exactly! and excellent taste in music in your tag BTW if that is an homage to the greats of metal :0>

ginaswo on September 30, 2010 at 12:22 PM

and no Obummer isnt playing 22 dimensional chess and looking to lose Congress.

Pullease no malignant narcissist wants to have EPIC FAIL in history books for losing seats.

remember, “you have me”

yeah well that and a token wont get you on a bus, under the bus? yes

ginaswo on September 30, 2010 at 12:24 PM

Fiorina here in CA bet get crackin’. Haven’t seen a TV add from her in quite some time.

kurtzz3 on September 30, 2010 at 12:24 PM

Did anyone see Coulter on Hannity last night? I had no idea Patty Murray was such an idiot. And they say Angle and O’Donnell are nuts?

I’m not sold either on if it matters if we take the senate. There are enough RINOs w/ a small majority that would vote w/ Dems anyway. The House has more power anyway when it comes to appropriations and committee subpoenas. Plus, w/ a GOP senate, Obama can run against them in 2012.

davek70 on September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

I am in Europe but will stay up all night to watch MSNBC if the Democrats look they will lose the House and the Senate.

Don’t want to miss Keith and Rachel climb into bath tubs, razor blades in hand.

NoDonkey on September 30, 2010 at 12:26 PM

Then they can watch Obama hike taxes stalling the economy even moreso and Obama can blame the Republicans in 2012. jeffn21 on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

“Where do spending bills originate?”

Here, let me google that for you.

Akzed on September 30, 2010 at 12:26 PM

3rd times the Charm Dino.

WIN.

portlandon on September 30, 2010 at 12:27 PM

Testing

Dire Straits on September 30, 2010 at 12:45 PM

Ed, just pay the ransom to keep the site running. :)

faraway on September 30, 2010 at 12:45 PM

Have no fear in taking both houses. All the Repubs need to do is continue to pass the Bush Tax Cut Extension Bill every month. Let Barry veto it over and over again. Our President is soon to learn the lesson countless Presidents have learned. It doesn’t matter who controls Congress, for better or worse the President owns the economy.

txhsmom on September 30, 2010 at 12:46 PM

Please Dear Lord let it be, if we could take both houses of congress the Won will be such a lame duck he won’t even be able to pass gas without Republican approval.

fourdeucer on September 30, 2010 at 12:48 PM

Go Dino!

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 30, 2010 at 12:48 PM

“Where do spending bills originate?”

Here, let me google that for you.

Akzed on September 30, 2010 at 12:26 PM

Funny.

UltimateBob on September 30, 2010 at 12:48 PM

O/T:
I just got an e mail from one of my business associates in Ecuador. He said the military just took over the government. As we know, the President is an avowed leftist friend of Hugo Chavez. The world is tiring of this socialist sh!t.

hip shot on September 30, 2010 at 12:51 PM

If Patty goes down Dems’ heads will explode.

Pop, pop, pop, pop, like a bowl of rice crispies.

Mr. Joe on September 30, 2010 at 12:53 PM

If these races aren’t won decisively on election night, they will all remain in the “D” column.

IronDioPriest on September 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM

How sad is it that we know enough corruption is in play to swing an election?

The problem is that it is accepted and even desired by the left.

John Deaux on September 30, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Those in the “know” completely understand that Murray is not a smart person. The Dems keep her awfully quiet. It’s unfortunate that the local MSM are complicit in this scheme – you don’t hear anything but praise for Murray – nothing. I hope Rossi wins big so that absentee ballots “forgotten” in a trunk don’t surface to do him in again.

quiz1 on September 30, 2010 at 12:54 PM

Don’t count O’Donnell out. From what I’ve seen, she’s pretty dynamic. And I’ve seen candidates collapse after holding 10 point leads before…

It’s unlikely, sure, but in this election cycle, it’s still in the realm of possibility.

Nethicus on September 30, 2010 at 12:55 PM

Ed, just pay the ransom to keep the site running. :)

faraway on September 30, 2010 at 12:45 PM

I blame AP. He lets those cats of his play with the server.

Laura in Maryland on September 30, 2010 at 12:56 PM

If Patty goes down Dems’ heads will explode.

Pop, pop, pop, pop, like a bowl of rice crispies.

Mr. Joe on September 30, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Exactly.

B Man on September 30, 2010 at 12:57 PM

I’m not sold either on if it matters if we take the senate.
davek70 on September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

You might feel differently if a Supreme retires at an awkward time.

Barnestormer on September 30, 2010 at 12:57 PM

If these races aren’t won decisively on election night, they will all remain in the “D” column.

IronDioPriest on September 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM

Election theft is a Donk tradition.

Only a tidal wave of red votes will prevent it.

Bruno Strozek on September 30, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Plus, w/ a GOP senate, Obama can run against them in 2012.

davek70 on September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Doesn’t matter. He will run against the Republicans anyway, no matter what. He’s doing it now. It’s all he knows how to do.

jwolf on September 30, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Ed, remember how you argued that it was very unlikely control of the Senate would come down to DE?

If we win every potential GOP pickup where Rasmussen currently has us ahead (ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, CO, IL, WV, WA) and lose every one where Rasmussen currently has us behind (NV, CA, CT)… then losing DE will indeed cost us the Senate.

Jon0815 on September 30, 2010 at 1:03 PM

We Need The Senate to IMPEACH THE IMPOSTER!

dhunter on September 30, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Rossi also wins every income demographic except <$20K voters, with majorities in all but the $20-40K demo.

Then shouldn’t he be well ahead? If one candidate wins every group except those making $20K or less, that candidate should be leading by more than 1%.

Somehow the math doesn’t add up here. Unless he’s losing <$20K by 20% or Washington is one hell of a poor state where there are more people making less than $20K than there are making more than $20K.

angryed on September 30, 2010 at 1:07 PM

I think the Dems kinda want to lose the Senate. Then they can watch Obama hike taxes stalling the economy even moreso and Obama can blame the Republicans in 2012.

jeffn21 on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Not very persuasive. Obama hiking taxes with 2% support from liberal Republicans, with 98% of the GOP voting against him…somehow hurts the GOP? Besides, Presidents get the credit and blame for the economy, not congress (see “Bill Clinton”).

Jaibones on September 30, 2010 at 1:07 PM

I think the Dems kinda want to lose the Senate. Then they can watch Obama hike taxes stalling the economy even moreso and Obama can blame the Republicans in 2012.
jeffn21 on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Obama can’t hike taxes. Only Congress can. If you think Republicans will hike taxes for Obama, I have a ski resort in Miami that you might be interested in…

joejm65 on September 30, 2010 at 1:08 PM

)… then losing DE will indeed cost us the Senate.

Jon0815 on September 30, 2010 at 1:03 PM

We have won already! Having RINO Castle voting with the Dems for any appointee thta Pinnochio sends up, or forming an alliance with McCain, Grahamnasty, Collins, Snowe and maybe Brown would have cost us far worse!

BiPartisan ship and all that crap.

We need to know in no uncertain terms who the RINOs(Dems hiding behind Republican namesake) are before 2012 so we can eliminate their power!

Mccain is dangerous now free to form powerful little groups to really stick it to us!
Thanks AZ!

dhunter on September 30, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Its not just the path to 51 that matters. Its the path to 60.
All the hot-headed talk and far flung strategies in the world are not going to undue the whole of ObamaCare and all the other insidious laws and regulation that will chew away at our Republic.

I’s rather try to win eight or nine seats in 2012, get 60+ with a few squishes then let Dems filibuster everything and be forced to used shenanigans to change the rules, which will backfire on the GOP.

swamp_yankee on September 30, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Republican Joe DioGuardi should be able to defeat Democrat Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in New York too!

Read this column to see how vulnerable Gillibrand is:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/09/senator_kristen_gillibrands_re_1.html

This is a woman who could give John Kerry lessons in flip-flopping.

When that wacky wrecking crew of the Clinton administration, Chris Dodd in the Senate, Barney Frank in the House, and Andrew Cuomo as HUD Secretary were smashing the banking system by foisting destructive subprime mortgages on the banks, causing collapses, leading to massive bailouts and triggering financial pain and suffering for millions of Americans, right there in a key supporting role at Cuomo’s side as HUD legal counsel was…Kristen Gillibrand.

But wait until it really sinks in with voters in those five NYC boroughs where Gillibrand stands regarding the matter of the wisdom of inflicting upon New York and all America a giant Muslim mosque next to Ground Zero. She’s joined Mayor Bloomberg as a cheerleader for it.

Learn more about Joe DioGuardi at his campaign website:

http://www.dioguardiforussenate.com/home.php

Republicans need to be fighting for every single seat in the Senate!

wren on September 30, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Did anyone see Coulter on Hannity last night? I had no idea Patty Murray was such an idiot. And they say Angle and O’Donnell are nuts?

davek70 on September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Patty Murray: The Stupidest Person in America
by Ann Coulter

29Victor on September 30, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Here’s how it might work:

Repubs successfully defend all seats currently held (MO, NH, OH, FL, KY the most important).

Dems lose PA, IN, ND, IL, AR, CO and three of DE, NV, WA, WI, CA plus one upset (CT or WV) = ten seats and control.

Missy on September 30, 2010 at 1:16 PM

I suggest doubling down on DE

ginaswo on September 30, 2010 at 12:21 PM

I now a little something about gambling. That there is a bad bet.

NV is absolutely winnable. If you’re looking for a true-bluered conservative to help, Sharron Angle is where your money should be.

JohnGalt23 on September 30, 2010 at 1:19 PM

We the people … the most powerful force in the USA.

tarpon on September 30, 2010 at 1:19 PM

I’s rather try to win eight or nine seats in 2012, get 60+ with a few squishes then let Dems filibuster everything and be forced to used shenanigans to change the rules, which will backfire on the GOP.

swamp_yankee on September 30, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Here’s to wishing that you were the DE GOP.

JohnGalt23 on September 30, 2010 at 1:20 PM

It will be interesting – even if the GOP somehow picks up 51, there will be quite a few RINOs mixed into that elephant herd. That’s not a complaint, that’s just the nature of electable Republicans in WA, CT, CA etc.

holdfast on September 30, 2010 at 1:23 PM

This little video of Senator Boxer’s campaign hiring Day Laborers who donn’t speak English to protest Carly Fiorina at yesterday’s debate should help Carly to defeat Boxer in California.

http://biggovernment.com/publius/2010/09/29/boxer-campaigners-hire-day-laborers-to-protest-fiorina/

Couldn’t Boxer find any Californian’s to volunteer to support her?

Looks like “astro-turf” to me!

Learn more about Carly Fiorina at her campaign website:

http://www.CarlyforCA.com

wren on September 30, 2010 at 1:24 PM

Some of these longshot predictions might have had a little more believability before Trent Lott went and shot off his “We don’t need a whole bunch of Jim DeMints running around…”

I felt a palpable disruption in The Force when that happened, and I think the feeling that the Republicans will be the same old high-spending squishes of old could leave just enough people at home that the Every-Vote-Needed races may not parlay.

eeyore on September 30, 2010 at 1:26 PM

For the Murray – Rossi race, the polls need to show how King County Elections officials will vote. Because that is all that really counts.

Also… another congressional race that should be ripe for a steal is WA – 01. Current Pelosi pool boy Jay Inslee is ripe for a new career. His website has a video where he “introduces himself” to the voters. He has been in that congressional seat for 12 years and he needs to introduce himself to the voters?

AndrewsDad on September 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Sorry to throw a wet blanket on this but Rossi isn’t going to win.

WA has an all mail-in voting system. Nobody actually votes at the polls anymore. It was designed and implemented by Dems to allow unlimited fraud. So on election night when Dino is up 2-3%, the Xerox machines will be in full swing and voila by the next morning they will have found a few thousand ballots that the mailman forgot to deliver and coincidentally 100% of those ballots will be for Murray.

angryed on September 30, 2010 at 1:29 PM

I am almost getting to fear taking BOTH houses and losing BOTH of our best sales tools (Pelosi and Reid) before 2012. Especially if we barely win the Senate, to see one of the Maine Madams do the final sellout and switch parties.

michaelo on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Everybody stop borrowing trouble. This isn’t about politics and maneuvering, this is about reversing the damage, people! Obamacare is LAW. It has to be REPEALED. There’s no time or margin for playing around with who gets blamed for what. The time for action is NOW. We can’t worry about things we can’t control, like the press. Just get in there and SAVE THE DAMN COUNTRY!

fossten on September 30, 2010 at 1:33 PM

Win, lose, or draw in the Senate…

this election will move the Senate to the RIGHT.

This is scaring the SPIT out of the Collective, and they will not act as they have the last several years.

Ragspierre on September 30, 2010 at 1:39 PM

The Tea Party (or, in other words, the American people) are in this one for the long haul. The goal isn’t to seat Republicans but to sweep leftists out of every part of our government and replace them with solid conservatives. That includes our media, our culture, our academic institutions and our school systems.

It’s going to take a while. But that’s the goal line, not just 2010 or 2012. We’re going to stomp leftism into the grave and seed the ground around it with salt.

bonnie_ on September 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

If the Repubs were to take the Senate it would be real fun to drag all the Czars into the Senate for “confirmation hearings” even if they resign.

Show exactly who it is that Obama seeks advise from.

Go Dino Go!

I am so sick and tired of being misrepresented by “The Stupidest Person Alive.”

The Rock on September 30, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Voter from WA State on September 30, 2010 at 1:42 PM

So explain to me then how Rossi is leading every demo except less than $20K and yet is tied. The math doesn’t add up.

angryed on September 30, 2010 at 1:52 PM

Murray is in serious trouble, If after 18 years in office you are in a virtual tie with someone who twice “lost” the race for governor in a state as blue as this (Well to be honest the I-5 corridor is the blue part) then you really need to worry. As far as the fix by the Democratic party they have to walk a really fine line these days even in Berkly North…The voters are very unhappy.

JKotthoff on September 30, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Plus, w/ a GOP senate, Obama can run against them in 2012.
davek70 on September 30, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Well, yeah. He’ll do that.

Unless be starts tacking to the center, though, I don’t know how persuasive he’ll be. Especially given how a huge reason why people are contemplating giving the GOP control again is because they WANT a divided government.

Frankly, I have grave doubts that it’s possible for him to move to the center.

Vyce on September 30, 2010 at 1:59 PM

Frankly, I have grave doubts that it’s possible for him to move to the center.

Vyce on September 30, 2010 at 1:59 PM

Me, too. Even Clinton, a pol with a strong survival instinct, had to be dragged there kicking and screaming by his people and he had some advisors that were relatively sane.

Missy on September 30, 2010 at 2:06 PM

I am almost getting to fear taking BOTH houses and losing BOTH of our best sales tools (Pelosi and Reid) before 2012. Especially if we barely win the Senate, to see one of the Maine Madams do the final sellout and switch parties.

michaelo on September 30, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Taking the Senate is critical, even if it is just 51-49, because then the Republicans can pick the chairs of committees and have at least a one vote majority on each committee. That will allow them to kill bills and nominations in committees. Even the “squishes” won’t matter if they are kept off the key committees.

Significantly, Obama is likely to have at least two more Supreme Court nominations over the next two years if, as is widely expected, Ginsburg and Breyer retire.

The current GOP members of the Senate Judiciary Committee are Jeff Sessions, Orrin Hatch, Chuck Grassley, Jon Kyl, Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, and Tom Coburn. The GOP would probably add another three to give them a 10-9 majority. If those three are strict constructionists, and if they can keep Lindsay Graham in line, they could defeat a radical Obama nominee in committee. (Of course, sooner or later they would have to approve some nominee, and Obama isn’t going to nominate a Scalia. But at least Obama might be forced to pick a “moderate” who might sometimes vote with the conservative wing of the court.)

SwampYankee on September 30, 2010 at 2:11 PM

It certainly will make for an exciting Election Night.

Whatever happens it will be a lot more fun than 2008–when doom seemed inevitable.

INC on September 30, 2010 at 2:13 PM

The Tea Party (or, in other words, the American people) are in this one for the long haul. The goal isn’t to seat Republicans but to sweep leftists out of every part of our government and replace them with solid conservatives. That includes our media, our culture, our academic institutions and our school systems.

It’s going to take a while. But that’s the goal line, not just 2010 or 2012. We’re going to stomp leftism into the grave and seed the ground around it with salt.

bonnie_ on September 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

Well said, Bonnie!

The harder we work in the 2010 elections for Federal, state and local offices, the easier our work will be in 2011, 2012 and beyond.

The more Conservatives who win elections in 2010, means the more time we will have to focus on stomping out other leftists.

Time to roll up our sleeves to help win these elections!

wren on September 30, 2010 at 2:19 PM

But, the EXPERTS said the ONLY way the GOP could pickup ten seats is if the tenth and most important and most critical seat that was picked up was in Delaware.

And we all know how accurate the experts are.

hawksruleva on September 30, 2010 at 2:59 PM

It’s going to take a while. But that’s the goal line, not just 2010 or 2012. We’re going to stomp leftism into the grave and seed the ground around it with salt.

bonnie_ on September 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

The progressives in the GOP won’t understand this until they’ve voted out of office. They’re blind to the reality that it’s not (D) the people are removing from Washington. It’s really ($), as in people who have succumbed to the dark side of money, fame and power that comes with holding national office.

hawksruleva on September 30, 2010 at 3:01 PM

Taking the Senate is critical, even if it is just 51-49, because then the Republicans can pick the chairs of committees and have at least a one vote majority on each committee. That will allow them to kill bills and nominations in committees. Even the “squishes” won’t matter if they are kept off the key committees.

SwampYankee on September 30, 2010 at 2:11 PM

That’s a good point. While many GOP members may be eager for the increase in power and prestige that comes from chairing committees, we need to remember that those committees do play vital roles in shaping our nation’s future.

Imagine if Rand Paul got to chair the Environment and Public Works committee… Or someone like Chris Christie chaired the education committee.

hawksruleva on September 30, 2010 at 3:04 PM

Winning the House and Senate this time would be like letting a football team score a TD on you when you are two TDs ahead with 30 seconds left on the clock. The Demorats know that a Republican H&S will slap the sh*t out of Obama and he will actually look like a centrist. This will get him re-elected in 2012 and the Congressional members that lose this time around will all get to be ambassadors to the arm pits of the world for taking one for the Griper. Maybe we DON’T to win both houses this time. Just sayin

inspectorudy on September 30, 2010 at 3:10 PM

Without the House, Obama cant move anything anyway and he and the MSM will have an enemy with a face to target. Giving the Dems the Senate wont matter.

Obama will still have his agenda blunted. Taking the Senate gives us control over committees, investigations and puts us on a 60+ path for 2012.

swamp_yankee on September 30, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Win both houses. Impeachment can only work if the House impeaches and the Senate convicts. Biden in 2012 would pretty much be a cakewalk. I fear two more years with Comrade Obamalinsky…no one will have ANY money left…..

adamsmith on September 30, 2010 at 4:48 PM

adamsmith on September 30, 2010 at 4:48 PM

Impeachment is not going to happen. The liberals would present it as a lynching and the inner cities would go bananas. What is more likely is that he will look at the democratic primary polls in 2011/early 2012 and realize he can’t possibly win the primary, and so withdraw from the primary to save his pride. Think LBJ, not BJC.

slickwillie2001 on September 30, 2010 at 5:07 PM