Obama approval at 46% in NBC/WSJ poll

posted at 12:15 pm on September 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and the Wall Street Journal combine again to deliver a survey with a sample that manages to get the Democrat partisan affiliation advantage wider than that of the 2008 presidential election — and Barack Obama still can’t get above 46% in overall approval.  The poll gives the GOP a three-point advantage on the generic Congressional ballot despite the skewed sample, and the Tea Party shows its strength, as the WSJ reports and as Allahpundit pointed out last night.  However, the poll skew and methodology are worth a second look.

The data shows the partisan affiliation in the sample:

Strong Democrat ……………………… 20
Not very strong Democrat ………….. 15
Independent/lean Democrat……….. 8
Strictly Independent ………………….. 13
Independent/lean Republican……… 11
Not very strong Republican………… 12
Strong Republican……………………. 14
Other (VOL) ……………………………. 5
Not sure ……………………………….. 2

Either that breaks out to a 35/26/32 breakdown without leaners, or a 43/37/8 with leaners.  Either is an absurd reading on the present electorate.  Put aside, for the moment, the myriad surveys that show the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans being between 1-3 points this year (Rasmussen’s latest was 1.2 points for Democrats).  The actual vote in 2008 gave Obama a win with a 7-point advantage in a race that had considerable Republican and independent crossover to the Democrats.

In order to believe that this survey is at all predictive, one would have to agree that Barack Obama and the Democrats have significantly broadened their base in the following two years.  Do we have any evidence of that at all?  Not exactly, as this poll itself shows.  Obama’s overall job approval is underwater at 46/49, and his rating on the economy continues to tank at 42/54.  A year ago, that latter figure was 50/42, and at the beginning of his term, it was 56/31.  The overall right/wrong direction question is now 32/59; a year ago it was 39/48, and it was 43/43 in April 2009.

Furthermore, all of those numbers come from a sample of adults, not registered voters.  And five weeks before a midterm election, the NBC/WSJ survey doesn’t bother to apply a likely-voter screen, when almost all other pollsters have done so.  That includes, by the way, the 56/32 split on whether Obama inherited the economic mess or is now mostly responsible for it.  What do likely voters think in this sample?  We’ll never know.

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior.


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Obama approval at 46% in NBC/WSJ poll

Still about 45 points too high.

UltimateBob on September 29, 2010 at 12:16 PM

It’s NBC, what did you expect?

Cookies Mom on September 29, 2010 at 12:17 PM

So Dear Liar is below 46%?

rbj on September 29, 2010 at 12:19 PM

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior.

As a propoganda tool however it is quite splendid.

pseudonominus on September 29, 2010 at 12:19 PM

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior.

So what’s the point and why do they report it?

tru2tx on September 29, 2010 at 12:21 PM

At this point, I’d say any polling data showing even moderately good news for Obama and the Dems, no matter how grotesquely distorted, is actually a good thing, as it will help Dem voters roll over and go back to sleep. Most of them really have no idea what is about to hit them.

Missy on September 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

NBC’s next poll will sample only their employees and find that there is 100% approval for PBHO.

You can run, libs, but you can’t hide.

Bishop on September 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

The average person doesn’t need a poll to tell them that Obama’s administration is widely unpopular, and any poll that says it isn’t always turns out to be rigged.

LASue on September 29, 2010 at 12:24 PM

i figger lobama is at around 31% if you extrapolate registered/likely voters.

yeah baby!

reliapundit on September 29, 2010 at 12:24 PM

Wait! Maybe they simply polled the watchers of NBC and the readers of the WSJ!

Oink on September 29, 2010 at 12:24 PM

Missy on September 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

Laura in Maryland on September 29, 2010 at 12:26 PM

So Dear Liar is below 46%?

rbj on September 29, 2010 at 12:19 PM

In the real world, I suspect his number is ~40, heading for the mid 30′s.

Johnnyreb on September 29, 2010 at 12:27 PM

You can run, libs, but you can’t hide.

Bishop on September 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Yeah they can. How long is Obama’s colon?

Laura in Maryland on September 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Dear Liar is in the 30′s but none of the pollsters have the balls to report it…

PatriotRider on September 29, 2010 at 12:29 PM

OT, anyone else here read that Meg Whitmans ex maid is coming out with “explosive” stories of abuse today at a news conference with her lawyer Gloria Aldred?Dang, as a Californian I can’t bear the thought of “moonbeam” Brown as Gov. Why can’t Republicans ever have dirt on our opponents?

sandee on September 29, 2010 at 12:31 PM

Is it any wonder distrust of the media is at an all time high.

Go RBNY on September 29, 2010 at 12:33 PM

So a sample with 9% more Dems than Republicans gives Republicans a 3% advantage in the generic Congressional ballot?

What happens if the real electorate that shows up at the polls has only 2% more Dems than Reps, with most of the Indies voting GOP?

Speaker Boehner!

Steve Z on September 29, 2010 at 12:35 PM

So what’s the point and why do they report it?

tru2tx on September 29, 2010 at 12:21 PM

They’re trying to shape perceptions.

AZCoyote on September 29, 2010 at 12:35 PM

The poll is useless, but let’s still use it and proclaim it gospel because it makes dear leader look good/ chuck Todd via Valerie jarret email

cmsinaz on September 29, 2010 at 12:35 PM

According to msdnc;
Nbc poll fair and accurate
Gallup poll take with a big grain of salt

cmsinaz on September 29, 2010 at 12:36 PM

WTF?! Why is the WSJ partnered w/ NBC on this?! I expect better from the WSJ.

sandee on September 29, 2010 at 12:31 PM

There is a thread about that in the Headlines…see “Hmmmmmmmm

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Hey, 9/7 points is nothing. The latest Kaiser poll on the HC law uses a 15/12 gap of “adults”.

People apparently approve of that law by 9%. They even have a propaganda cartoon narrated by Kaiser trustee Cokie Roberts.

forest on September 29, 2010 at 12:37 PM

I would like to see the results of the “personal favorability” poll that asked the final question:

Did you rank the president or his policies more positively than you otherwise would have in this poll so you would not be considered a racist?

Lily on September 29, 2010 at 12:38 PM

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior.

Useless if you are looking for factual,realistic information.

…..The democrats don’t rely on reality….they are looking for cheerleaders to push up their numbers.

They have comedians testifying on the Hill….

………they have publications like Rolling Stone continuing the “enchanted,chest glistening” Presidential smooch fest ……

…..They have the Brian Williams and Stephanopolous tongue baths with Katie to follow…….

They are doing rallies on college campuses so they can create the illusion of 2008……

They are doing everything they can to distract from the disastrous policies and decisions made by this administration.

Obama supporters from all areas are in a full court press to baffle the electorate with bullsh!t and re-create the messiah they sold to America in 2008.

Facts and reality are an enemy to the Obama administration….

Baxter Greene on September 29, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Is it just me, or is Obama trying to pull off a Jedi mind trick in that picture? ‘Cos it’s not working, apparently.

Snowed In on September 29, 2010 at 12:39 PM

And Castro is wildly popular in Cuba too.

stldave on September 29, 2010 at 12:40 PM

Yeah they can. How long is Obama’s colon?

Laura in Maryland on September 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM


Heh!!!!!

Baxter Greene on September 29, 2010 at 12:41 PM

So, IRL (In Real Life, for the Acronym Challenged) -Won (Minus Won) has poll numbers somewhere in teh 30′s the zombie media just doesn’t want to show it.

And the 2008 should not be used as a template. A lot of conservatives stayed home rather than vote for Captain Amnesty. So that profile is not valid. It does not represent the real electorate, which is CENTER RIGHT.

dogsoldier on September 29, 2010 at 12:41 PM

C’mon people…we have to buck up

JetBoy on September 29, 2010 at 12:41 PM

this poll is invalid. Ed continues to reveal the house of cards that is biased polling samples. The only way to validate these polls is to have elections. Polls that match up to actual election results should be presumed to be valid. Those that show otherwise should be presumed to be invalid and disregarded. If that weren’t the case, then the polling organizations would not shift their sample proportions nearer to the elections.

nice work ed.

ted c on September 29, 2010 at 12:44 PM

Let’s be CHARITABLE and estimate the 9% oversampling of Democrats would provide ONLY 50% ( I would think its more like 75% or more depending on race ) then that would yield a 4.5% decrease and put it down to around 41.5% , Just about where Rassmussen consistently records it at .
MORE propaganda from the Network that shilled JIMMY SMITS in his second episode to mis represent ( yes folks they CLEARLY said the AZ law REQUIRES Law Enforcement to pull over people and ask them about their immigration status ) the AZ SB1070 law and spew propaganda .
YET we hear about the DESTRUCTIVE FOX NEWS .
I wonder if AXELSPIN has given one second to the idea that MAYBE a good portion of Americans are not watching those TV networks to get their ‘news ” but rather have discovered CREDIBLE sources on the WWW. ?

ELMO Q on September 29, 2010 at 12:51 PM

Obama approval at 46% in NBC/WSJ poll

He may be at 46% IN the NBC/WSJ poll, but just try stepping OUT of the NBC/WSJ and see what happens — he’s down at around 1%.

Things always look cheerier when you’re on the outside with your nose pressed to the glass and looking in.

FlameWarrior on September 29, 2010 at 12:51 PM

In other words, Obama is very happy with this poll…even if you re-calculate it….

albill on September 29, 2010 at 12:52 PM

Morning Joe had Chuck Todd on this morning to discuss this poll. I think Todd actually has a hand in the polling in some capacity.

Whatever the case, from Todd’s description and the Morning Joe crew’s discussion, you’d think Moses brought down these poling results with the tablets for the Ten Commandments. Scarborough, the only hope (however futile) for any objectivity on that show, should be ridiculed by conservatives for accepting the numbers at face value. Their spin was, like Maverick (Tom Cruise) in in the final battle scene in Top Gun, black and Hispanics voters have suddenly “re-engaged” with the mid-terms and are determined to stem the tide of the GOP wave.

I wanted to barf. I’m glad we have Ed to flesh out the numbers.

BuckeyeSam on September 29, 2010 at 12:57 PM

How long do they think they can continue to lie…well, finesse us and get away with it?

JeffWeimer on September 29, 2010 at 12:57 PM

I hope that when Comcast takes over, they make wholesale changes at NBCUniversal.

kingsjester on September 29, 2010 at 1:00 PM

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior.

No, their just trying to ‘pump up their base’. After the election they’ll be scratching their heads saying “What happened?”

GarandFan on September 29, 2010 at 1:02 PM

These are saved or created approval numbers!

rjoco1 on September 29, 2010 at 1:14 PM


GREAT idea Dems……….keep it up.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882404575520044037709702.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop=

PappyD61 on September 29, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Just have to pass this along:

Poll results released today by the John William Pope Civitas Institute show Ilario Pantano, the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in North Carolina’s 7th District, with a slight lead over seven-term incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre. According to the poll, 46% of voters surveyed support Pantano, 45% support McIntyre and 9% are undecided. The results were announced at a poll luncheon today in Wilmington.

This is a district that has been democrat for over 100 years…time to kick those guys out.
This would be a major coup, and Ilario needs all the support we can muster.
McIntyre is (soon to be was) the majority whip, and defeating him, defeats Pelosi…

right2bright on September 29, 2010 at 1:16 PM

Was Jeff Zucker available for comment?

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 1:17 PM

Oversampling, a way to make yourself temporarily feel better, yet in the long run will lead to one huge letdown.

Sharr on September 29, 2010 at 1:18 PM

They would never ever publish a poll that had Obama below 40%.
They would just tank it and order another poll with 15% more Democrats and that would come straight from the top.
They are tied to Obama with a chain they forged.
They will go to wall for him once again just like before.

The problem is that in five weeks their little bubble is going to collapse and they will have no way to explain the disparity between what they have been reporting and what actually happens at the polls.
It will still be unexpected and then they will begin the next phase where they will blame everything bad on the Republicans for the next to years while everything good will be because of Obama.

If a dog gets hit by a car it will be because of drastic cuts in public safety by Republicans who gave the money to their monacled Wall Street friends.

NeoKong on September 29, 2010 at 1:27 PM

I hope that when Comcast takes over, they make wholesale changes at NBCUniversal.

kingsjester on September 29, 2010 at 1:00 PM

It’s possible Comcast will take a different approach. But even when Jack Welch (a conservative) was GE’s CEO, the management had a hands off policy wrt NBC.

BTW GE has wanted to dump NBC for years; Welch acknowledged his mistake in buying it. The problem up until recently was that they couldn’t find a buyer.

Missy on September 29, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Any poll credited to NBC is useless mathematical garbage and has only one purpose . . . to create false positives for the Obama regime.

rplat on September 29, 2010 at 1:36 PM

WTF?! Why is the WSJ partnered w/ NBC on this?! I expect better from the WSJ.

sandee on September 29, 2010 at 12:31 PM

There is a thread about that in the Headlines…see “Hmmmmmmmm“

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Hey, Gallup, once hugely respected, partnered with CNN until they were thrown overboard and replaced by a Clinton suckup just prior to Hillary’s coronation as the Democrat candidate (which never happened, of course).

And the Gallup cachet has never recovered from bedding down with that cheap wh*re named CNN.

Del Dolemonte on September 29, 2010 at 1:37 PM

And finally, the poll is gruesome for Palin

allahpundit.

In other words, this poll is almost useless for any analysis of voter behavior

Cap’n Ed.

Hey, how about a “Hot Air cage match?”

Hehe.

cs89 on September 29, 2010 at 1:46 PM

why is it called Approval with 49% DisApproval it really is a DisApproval poll.

mathewsjw on September 29, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Forget it. He’s 40 or under. I’m pretty close to a lot of liberals vioa work and family, and no one has a good thing to say about this pathetic parvenu.

rrpjr on September 29, 2010 at 2:37 PM

unexpected

Knott Buyinit on September 29, 2010 at 2:38 PM

One question: don’t skewed surveys like these run the risk of inadvertently depressing the turnout of Democrats at the polls?

Look at this way. These pollsters, or at least some of them, skew these results in the Democrats’ favor in attempt to convince voters that the coming November wave will be blue or at least purple instead of red. But if too many Democrat leaners read these polls, they’re liable to lulled into a false sense of security, thinking, “I don’t need to turn out for the mid-terms. The Democrats have it all locked up as it is.”

And of course, Republican leaners reading the results might realize that turnout could make all the difference and therefore be more motivated to show up on Election day.

DubiousD on September 29, 2010 at 3:25 PM

DubiousD on September 29, 2010 at 3:25 PM

Yeah, I think you’re right on the money. Trying to depress the other side’s turnout is usually a double-edged sword.

Missy on September 29, 2010 at 3:55 PM

LOL, even oversampling democrats isn’t helping.

In 4 years this guy will be among the most reviled figures in American history.

Lonetown on September 29, 2010 at 5:32 PM

In 4 years this guy will be among the most reviled figures in American history.

Lonetown on September 29, 2010 at 5:32 PM

A lot less than 4 years! Democratics are holding their fire on Bammie for the sake of the election. The day after, they will be free to attack him, along with the old media. That will drive his numbers into the thirties.

slickwillie2001 on September 29, 2010 at 6:57 PM