The Senate’s in play: Blumenthal 49, McMahon 46 in Connecticut

posted at 11:36 am on September 28, 2010 by Allahpundit

It seems some voters are angry with government this year.

Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are “angry” with government, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, is closing in on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and now trails just 49 – 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 51 – 45 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 14 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, conducted by live interviewers…

The 33 percent of likely voters who say they are “angry” with the federal government support McMahon 78 – 20 percent.

She’s turned Blumenthal’s lead among independents into a 49/44 lead of her own, but she’s getting crushed among women — a common phenomenon for women Republican candidates, actually — and, worryingly, she’s winning the GOP vote only 80/16. Blumenthal, by contrast, takes Democrats 89/9. If her numbers among her own base were the same as his, this would either be a dead heat or she’d be up by a point or two. Maybe the next round of polls will show that; the momentum in this race is, after all, entirely in one direction. The big question is whether that 16 percent of Republicans who are sticking with Bloomy for now are doing so because they’re Castle-esque moderates who won’t vote for a mostly conservative candidate like McMahon or because they’re a bit spooked by her WWE pedigree and aren’t quite ready to take her seriously yet. If it’s the latter, we should see a bunch of them start to flip into her column soon now that she’s proved she has a chance at winning. If it’s the former, uh oh. Either way, consider this a rough metric for how blue a state needs to be this year for the Democratic nominee to have a chance at winning. Obama took Connecticut by 23 points two years ago, and now state attorney general Dick Blumenthal is within the margin of error — against a pro-wrestling impresario. When The One said he’d bring about Change, he wasn’t kidding.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia, John Raese suddenly leads newly minted ObamaCare skeptic Joe Manchin by two points. Why is that a big deal when PPP already showed Raese leading by three? Because this is a Rasmussen poll and, to date, Ras has had Manchin with a steady lead of five or six points among likely voters. In fact, just nine short days ago, his lead was seven points. Now this. Wave-tastic. Exit question: Which Democratic candidates in other states are going to suffer as the DSCC abandons them in order to pour money into Connecticut and West Virginia? Bye bye, Kendrick Meek!


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It seems some voters are angry with government this year.

Really? huh….who knew

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 11:37 AM

The wave … when it crests it will carry McMahon, O’Donnell, Fiorina and others over the top.

darwin on September 28, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Shows how far the leftoniacs have fallen; that high a number for an honor-stealing, lying scumbag Blumenthal.

Bishop on September 28, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Exit question: Which Democratic candidates in other states are going to suffer as the DSCC abandons them in order to pour money into Connecticut and West Virginia? Bye bye, Kendrick Meek!

No wonder Slestak is getting his palm greased and his engine oil checked by dipstick LT John Effing Kerry, the War Hero with a yacht who can speak french.

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 11:40 AM

I’m curious as to whether the DSCC will cut off Robin Carnahan and Joe Stesak considering that they’ve spent about $4.5 million on those two races combined to this point, which is nearly 2/3 of their spending so far this cycle.

I think they’re dumb enough to do so, though any businessman would tell you that “sunk costs” like that shouldn’t be taken into account when making a decision because that money’s gone no matter what.

teke184 on September 28, 2010 at 11:40 AM

oh duh…slestak is running for senate…my bad.

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 11:40 AM

If it wasn’t for that “dangerous” Fox news, this would never be happening…

sandee on September 28, 2010 at 11:41 AM

I think they’re dumb enough to do so

That should be “dumb enough to keep funding them”, throwing good money after bad in the futile attempt to get a return on that investment.

teke184 on September 28, 2010 at 11:42 AM

The big question is whether that 16 percent of Republicans who are sticking with Bloomy for now are doing so because they’re Castle-esque moderates who won’t vote for a mostly conservative candidate like McMahon or because they’re a bit spooked by her WWE pedigree and aren’t quite ready to take her seriously yet.

If it’s the former, then these voters need to start paying attention. McMahon may not be a liberal like Castle, but she’s a bonafide social moderate. She’s pro-choice and supports a repeal of DADT.

Doughboy on September 28, 2010 at 11:45 AM

…against a pro-wrestling impresario.

I so want to be an impresario. How does one go about becoming an impresario? Is there an impresario school.

Or maybe I just like saying/typing the word “impresario”. It is one of the cooler words in the English language.

JohnGalt23 on September 28, 2010 at 11:45 AM

As painful as it was to watch McCain go slowly down about this time two years ago, I’m on the edge of me seat watching these Senate and House races all around the country.

This is better than the first and second rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament.

Where does the Illinois race stand? Are Illinoisians really going to send a Greek mob guy to the Senate? I guess I shouldn’t be surprised after they sent Obama.

BuckeyeSam on September 28, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Up to 100 House seats may change hands this November.

Perhaps as many as 20 Senate seats as well. [Only 37 seats in contention.]

Add to the revulsion of J.Q. Public toward the House and Senate the Dems now openly admitting they are limiting limited funding to only those races they believe have a chance to win.

2010 may make 1994 look like a small thing.

And the GOP needs to take note…this revulsion is not directed solely toward the Dems.

Tea Party candidates and Libertarians are making good headway this season.

But, if I were a Dem member of Congress right now, I’d be seeking out a good real estate agent immediately to handle the sale of my DC-area home sooner rather than later as there may be an excess of high-end homes in a tight market come January.

coldwarrior on September 28, 2010 at 11:47 AM

Rasmussen has the GOP candidate ahead in exactly 9 Senate seats currently held by Dems: ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, CO, IL, NV, and WV.

Then there are another 3 seats where Ras has the GOP behind but within 5: CA, WA, and now CT.

So it’s looking plausible that we can still take the Senate, even after throwing away DE.

Jon0815 on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

I’m beginning to sense a complete nervous breakdown in the democratic party…

Now that would be entertainment!

Sad thing is we’ll fix it for them to take credit for, but it’s too important not to. conservatives will juat have to keep educating these poor educated experts…

golfmann on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

They abandon Sestak, Fisher, and Hodes… this week. Next week, who knows, maybe Feingold and Carnahan.

swamp_yankee on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Gnarly wave, dude…

d1carter on September 28, 2010 at 11:51 AM

This is simply delicious.

30 pcs of silver on September 28, 2010 at 11:51 AM

because they’re a bit spooked by her WWE pedigree and aren’t quite ready to take her seriously yet.

After the Democrats sent Al Effing Franken to the Senate?!?!?!?

CDeb on September 28, 2010 at 11:53 AM

I’d expect Blumenthal to eventually reach out to residents David Letterman and Martha Stewart and all give a pearl-clutching “Good Heavens! What can you people be thinking?!” if McMahon surges ahead.
I suppose no one would say they are going to vote for her, everyone would vote for her, and after she wins no one recalls voting for her.

Marcus on September 28, 2010 at 11:54 AM

continue the ass kicking.

this next 35 days is going to be a helluva lot of fun.

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 11:54 AM

Awww, man House gone, Senate going. What’s not to like.

The problem here is America cannot ever go back to sleep. Ever … tyranny lurks just outside the door as we are now aware, packaged as a teleprompter seance for the unwary.

tarpon on September 28, 2010 at 11:57 AM

And you thought Delaware was our only hope. All you orincess Lea rino’s need to man up!

abobo on September 28, 2010 at 11:58 AM

*princess* that is.

abobo on September 28, 2010 at 11:58 AM

I’m stocking up on whipped cream and popcorn–you guys better get busy with the pudding…

lovingmyUSA on September 28, 2010 at 11:59 AM

See, this is why I wish other areas than the ones already highlighted were looked in to. For instance, I really wish there was a poll done done here in my area. Down here in St. Mary’s County, Charles Lollar has a lot of support against Stenny Hoyer. However, I’m not sure how he’s doing in the other areas of the district. I think it could be (maybe a long shot but…) possible for Lollar to take down Hoyer. There are Lollar signs everywhere, and anyone I talk to is furious with Hoyer for attaching himself to Pelosi’s hip the past couple of years like he has done. There are many folks in this area who are also extremely upset at Hoyer for saying that he doesn’t care how his constituents want him to vote, he votes how HE wants to vote. Here’s to seeing how October plays out…I really hope there is a debate between Lollar and Hoyer at some point in this next month!

Highlar on September 28, 2010 at 11:59 AM

Really? huh….who knew

I was extremely annoyed with the last administration, but am FURIOUS now.

Bob's Kid on September 28, 2010 at 11:59 AM

***

So it’s looking plausible that we can still take the Senate, even after throwing away DE.

Jon0815 on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Thanks for that nice summary. But I’d love it if the tide were to become so big that Dems had to double back and pour a ton of money into DE simply to ensure that they salvage it.

BuckeyeSam on September 28, 2010 at 11:59 AM

This should help us with those two competitive house races. Spend Linda spend!

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 28, 2010 at 12:00 PM

They abandon Sestak, Fisher, and Hodes… this week. Next week, who knows, maybe Feingold and Carnahan.
swamp_yankee on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

Feingold loves to air ads showing him all alone, not beholden to special interests and the “Ways of Washington”. But damn, if they did cut him loose, Russ would be the first to scream, “WTF??!!!”

PackerBronco on September 28, 2010 at 12:01 PM

This makes me a little more relaxed about some other unmentionable races.

Voters are gonna be a little more complacent in ’12, so I’d rather we win this whole enchilada right now.

Sekhmet on September 28, 2010 at 12:05 PM

The polls are tightening.

AnninCA on September 28, 2010 at 12:06 PM

The clicking sounds now being heard around the country are from opening cans of whoopa$$ that will rain down on Dems more and more as November 2 approaches.

ya2daup on September 28, 2010 at 12:06 PM

They abandon Sestak, Fisher, and Hodes… this week. Next week, who knows, maybe Feingold and Carnahan.

swamp_yankee on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

..firewalls being thrown up all over this land.

The War Planner on September 28, 2010 at 12:08 PM

The polls sphincters are tightening.

AnninCA on September 28, 2010 at 12:06 PM

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 12:09 PM

The clicking sounds now being heard around the country are from opening cans of whoopa$$ that will rain down on Dems more and more as November 2 approaches.

ya2daup on September 28, 2010 at 12:06 PM

ya2daup: *I clink my glass* to yours in honour of your
snarkfest comment,salutey!!:)

canopfor on September 28, 2010 at 12:10 PM

Rush is on a roll about artifical *bubble sumpin*!!

canopfor on September 28, 2010 at 12:10 PM

So,the PARTY OF H*LL NO is creaming zee Left!!

Interesting!!(sarc).

canopfor on September 28, 2010 at 12:12 PM

Sweet. It seems to me that Blumenthal is waaaayyy more flawed as a candidate and human being than he has been advertised as. In short, he’s a major douchebag. So McMahon’s real task here is to present herself as a functional human being who doesn’t lie about everything and has a reasonably conservative view of the government’s role in our lives.

She doesn’t need to be John Adams. Blumenthal is a clown.

Jaibones on September 28, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Which Democratic candidates in other states are going to suffer as the DSCC abandons them in order to pour money into Connecticut and West Virginia? Bye bye, Kendrick Meek!

bye bye Marshall, bye bye coons, bye bye Boxer, bye bye Murray, bye bye MO…….

when you are playing defense in Conn and NY and you are a dem you are losing. it is the 4th qrt and your down 14pts with 2:00min to go. It’s possible the negative ads can stop the damage but the chances are slim….

And if the house seats in MA and MI it might be more like down by 17pts….

unseen on September 28, 2010 at 12:17 PM

It really is an amazing thing…for Blumenthal to possible lose this election? Unthinkable a few months ago. It’s on par with a Repub taking Kennedy’s seat in Mass. Blumenthal had it made.

I cannot wait to cast my vote for Linda.

JetBoy on September 28, 2010 at 12:17 PM

So it’s looking plausible that we can still take the Senate, even after throwing away DE.

Jon0815 on September 28, 2010 at 11:50 AM

I’ve been saying this all along, which is why I thought the freakout over DE was so wrongheaded. And I still think O’Donnell has a shot.

Missy on September 28, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Exit question: Which Democratic candidates in other states are going to suffer as the DSCC abandons them in order to pour money into Connecticut and West Virginia? Bye bye, Kendrick Meek!

The number of places this is happening are really starting to pile up – California, Washington, Connecticut, New York, Deleware, Florida, there are just too many fronts for them to fight in every place. Triage is the only answer, and I’m not even sure that’s going to save many seats at this point. Because it’s not just the senate in the balance, the house is hanging too.

Now, truthfully, they’ve probably already conceded the house. But, it’s a dangerous thing to concede there and all those governor seats and all those State Houses.. to fight for the US Senate?

Seems to me this is shaping up to be an epic loss.

WashingtonsWake on September 28, 2010 at 12:21 PM

they’re a bit spooked by her WWE pedigree

Well since the pedigree is the finishing move of her son-in-law, this kind of makes sense.

Kendrick on September 28, 2010 at 12:24 PM

But, it’s a dangerous thing to concede there and all those governor seats and all those State Houses.. to fight for the US Senate?

Seems to me this is shaping up to be an epic loss.

WashingtonsWake on September 28, 2010 at 12:21 PM

With redistricting coming up, the governorships and State Houses are going to be even more important than they once were.

Rahm Emanuel must be one of the most hated men in Washington right now. It was his Blue Dog strategy that allowed Dems to take Congress in 2006 – but it backfired, because Obama veered way too far to the left and now all those Blue Dogs are twisting in the wind. No wonder he’s hightailing it back to Chicago.

Missy on September 28, 2010 at 12:26 PM

Perhaps as many as 20 Senate seats as well.

First, win 14 seats like Dick Morris says is possible:

ND, AR, IN, CO, PA, WI, IL, WV, NV, CT, CA, WA, NY, DE

Then, watch in amazement as 5 Democratic Senators and 1 Lieberman change parties:

Tester (MT), Nelson (NE), Pryor (AR), Webb (VA), Lieberman (CT), Landrieu (LA)

Emperor Norton on September 28, 2010 at 12:26 PM

I’ve been saying this all along, which is why I thought the freakout over DE was so wrongheaded. And I still think O’Donnell has a shot.

Missy on September 28, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Missy: Exactly,and O`Donnell will win,your right!

canopfor on September 28, 2010 at 12:34 PM

The polls sphincters are tightening.

AnninCA on September 28, 2010 at 12:06 PM

ted c on September 28, 2010 at 12:09 PM

Futile. You can’t stop a movement.

citrus on September 28, 2010 at 12:42 PM

If her numbers among her own base were the same as his, this would either be a dead heat or she’d be up by a point or two.

Proof that stupidity and self-destruction abounds on the right too.

Schadenfreude on September 28, 2010 at 12:43 PM

She’s turned Blumenthal’s lead among independents into a 49/44 lead of her own, but she’s getting crushed among women — a common phenomenon for women Republican candidates, actually — and, worryingly, she’s winning the GOP vote only 80/16. Blumenthal, by contrast, takes Democrats 89/9.

Connecticut’s voter registration in 2008 was 33% Democrat, 22% Republican, and 45% Independent. If McMahon loses 16% of the GOP vote to Blumenthal, that’s 3.5% of the total electorate, and if she takes back 9% of Democrats, that’s just about 3% of the total electorate, so that the cross-party vote is nearly a wash. McMahon can win this if she can convince a bigger margin of Independents to vote for her.

McMahon has been running a very common-sense campaign, focusing on cutting spending and taxes, favoring small business, and developing America’s energy resources (including shale oil, which most GOP candidates tend to ignore). She has tended to avoid the “social” issues which can turn off “moderate” voters in CT. Her campaign is somewhat low-key, but she presents herself (without saying so) as “the adult in the room”, which plays well here. Her attacks on Blumenthal have focused mostly on his lying about his military service and his favoring cap-and-trade, which would increase energy costs in CT.

There are hundreds of “Linda” yard signs in the suburban Hartford area, and I haven’t seen a single yard sign for Blumenthal, although there are many Malloy/Wyman signs for the Dem candidates for Gov / Lt. Gov. Why are people ashamed to publicly admit they want Blumenthal?

Ordinarily, a candidate (like Blumenthal) near the 50% mark this late will win, but Blumenthal was well over 50% most of the summer, and has been trending downward, while McMahon climbed out of the low 30′s to the mid 40′s. She is slowly but surely TAKING VOTES AWAY from Blumenthal, so 3 points down with a month to go is definitely winnable.

Go Linda!

Steve Z on September 28, 2010 at 12:43 PM

The wave … when it crests it will carry McMahon, O’Donnell, Fiorina and others over the top.

darwin on September 28, 2010 at 11:39 AM

YESSIR! And that wave hasn’t crested YET.

fossten on September 28, 2010 at 12:47 PM

Anuses, er polls tightening in WA too.

Rossi, the decent, should take out insanity, with greater ease. Just shows how crazy WA is.

Schadenfreude on September 28, 2010 at 12:49 PM

I wonder if Peter Schiff could mobilize his 5-15 percent of the extreme libertarians that seem to follow him in CT

swamp_yankee on September 28, 2010 at 12:50 PM

McMahon is not a Tea Party candidate by any stretch of the imagination. She is an establishment GOP candidate and probably falls on the political spectrum somewhere between Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe.

If she wins it puts the GOP one seat closer to a Senate Majority, but based on recent history, that really doesn’t excite me much.

Stephen Macklin on September 28, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Quick RNSCC send in The Architect and Krauthammer! This can’t be! They said the war is lost!

The Smart guy DC Establishmenters have spoken, its not too late send in the clowns!
Yes you can snatch defeat from the Tea Party Jaws of VICTORY!

dhunter on September 28, 2010 at 1:01 PM

Does anybody else believe that the GOP is using Delaware and O’Donnell as a stalking-horse or whipping boy to deflect the MSM’s attention away from the other Senate races. In other words while the MSM is investing a huge amount of their time and capital to bring down Christine O’Donnell the Republicans in the other competitive Senate races (Wisconsin, Colorado, WVA, Connecticut, NY state (Gillibrand), Florida, and Washington State are doing swimmingly without much critical national media coverage. Could the GOP actually be that smart and could Karl Rove’s takedowns of COD after she won the primaries be part of a nefarious plot by the GOP?

technopeasant on September 28, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Could the GOP actually be that smart and could Karl Rove’s takedowns of COD after she won the primaries be part of a nefarious plot by the GOP?

technopeasant on September 28, 2010 at 1:28 PM

It could. Some of us were speculating as much after the primary. There’s only so much anyone in the GOP can do to influence MSM coverage – if it were that easy we wouldn’t be in this mess with Obama – but I think they are certainly taking advantage of it as other candidates sneak under the barbed wire while the MSM spotlight is trained on DE.

Missy on September 28, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Obama took Connecticut by 23 points two years ago, and now state attorney general Dick Blumenthal is within the margin of error — against a pro-wrestling impresario. When The One said he’d bring about Change, he wasn’t kidding.

The Whiner in Chief (WIC) has found out how fickle the fans can be and that fame is a fleeting thing. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving person.

Ha Ha! (in my best Nelson Muntz voice)

GrannyDee on September 28, 2010 at 2:02 PM

Then, watch in amazement as 5 Democratic Senators and 1 Lieberman change parties:

Tester (MT), Nelson (NE), Pryor (AR), Webb (VA), Lieberman (CT), Landrieu (LA)

Emperor Norton on September 28, 2010 at 12:26 PM

I can see most of those, but one is not like the others.

Landrieu won’t change because her family is synonymous with the Democrats within Louisiana. Her father was a major Dem player back in the 70s and her brother is a former Lt. Governor and currently the Mayor of New Orleans, both office held while a Democrat.

Instead, she’ll just be VERY heavily pressured to vote with the Republicans for the next few years until she probably retires before the 2014 elections.

teke184 on September 28, 2010 at 2:41 PM

I can see most of those, but one is not like the others.

You’re absolutely right, but the other guy said:

Perhaps as many as 20 Senate seats as well.

So, unless you have another suggestion, we’re stuck at 19.

Emperor Norton on September 28, 2010 at 2:57 PM

Futile. You can’t stop a movement.

citrus on September 28, 2010 at 12:42 PM

THAT is funny!

Red State State of Mind on September 28, 2010 at 4:02 PM

McMahon is not a Tea Party candidate by any stretch of the imagination. She is an establishment GOP candidate and probably falls on the political spectrum somewhere between Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe.

McMahon is not a Tea Party candidate, and is an establishment GOP candidate, first nominated by a convention. She is probably to the right of Scott Brown, and well to the right of Olympia Snowe, and she also attacked primary opponent (and former CT Congressman) Rob Simmons for being a RINO. She’s probably slightly further right than Lisa Murkowski, but running in a much bluer state.

She focuses mostly on cutting taxes and spending, favoring business, and using America’s energy resources, and tends to dodge the social issues. On energy issues, her positions are close to those of Sarah Palin. She does favor a strong military, a more hawkish foreign policy, and Second Amendment rights.

Social issues really only matter when a Senator is asked to vote for or against confirmation of a SCOTUS justice, and she hasn’t really answered how she would vote. But, from a conservative point of view, would her vote be any worse than Blumenthal’s?

McMahon might not be a Tea Partier’s cup of tea, but she’s further right than any Senator this state has elected for decades, with a fighting chance of winning.

Steve Z on September 28, 2010 at 4:45 PM

I’m extremely interested in watching the election returns on November 2. I expect to hear the following conversation repeated many times:

Talking head #1: “Well, we’ve now projected [insert GOP candidate here] to win his/her race in [insert blue state here].”

Talking head #2: “No one predicted that. Pre-election polls showed his/her Democratic rival with a small but consistent lead.”

Talking head #1: “Well, those racist teabaggers have convinced a majority of people that their desire to sacrifice babies to Beelzebub, disembowel senior citizens on pay-per-view extravaganzas and forcibly impregnate every female over the age of ten, is a great idea. This is truly the end times. That is, of course, if I believed in their stupid, gun-clinging fairy tales that they all tell their inbred families while saluting the Nazi flag.”
===============================

My prognostication skills are weak, so I might have made a mistake in the final comment above.

Physics Geek on September 28, 2010 at 5:49 PM

Could the GOP actually be that smart and could Karl Rove’s takedowns of COD after she won the primaries be part of a nefarious plot by the GOP?

technopeasant on September 28, 2010 at 1:28 PM

Magnificent Bastard.

RINO in Name Only on September 28, 2010 at 6:43 PM

5 more weeks to go…

SURF’S UP!!

Khun Joe on September 29, 2010 at 1:26 AM