McMahon moving closer in CT, almost within MOE

posted at 2:55 pm on September 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Linda McMahon doesn’t have Richard Blumenthal on the ropes yet, but the Republican nominee for the Senate in Connecticut has almost closed the gap on a race that Democrats at one time thought they couldn’t lose.  Ramussen’s latest survey of likely voters shows McMahon trailing by five points, almost within the margin of error for the poll, an improvement of four points in the gap in two weeks.  Furthermore, Blumenthal appears ready to slip under 50% for the first time in the race:

Democrat Richard Blumenthal now holds just a five-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s race for the U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Blumenthal with 50% support and McMahon with 45% when leaners are included. One percent (1%) favor some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. …

Two weeks ago, when leaners were part of the totals, Blumenthal held a 53% to 44% lead over McMahon. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

Blumenthal leads 50% to 41% if leaners are not included. In the previous survey, he posted 51% to 43% lead minus leaners.

Blumenthal once led this race by 30 points and was assumed to have rescued it from the debacle of Chris Dodd.  Linda McMahon was once considered too conservative to compete for this seat, as well as too tied to the circus atmosphere of professional wrestling to build credibility with voters.  McMahon has run a smart, issues-focused campaign, and has also been blessed with an opponent that keeps inflicting his own damage to his credibility and reputation.

The leaners in this race are mostly men.  McMahon picks up seven points with men and a single point with women when leaners are considered.  She faces a daunting 16-point gender gap among women, though, and she may need to make a stronger pitch.  McMahon and Blumenthal split the independent vote with leaners at 48% each, but McMahon gets slightly more Democrats (13%) than Blumenthal does Republicans.

Blumenthal, however, has bigger problems in the age demographics.  McMahon wins almost all of them except for the youngest voters, which Blumenthal wins by an 85/15 margin.  Unfortunately, those are the voters who are least likely to make it to the polling places on Election Day.  The Rasmussen poll surveys likely voters and that shouldn’t make a big difference, but only if their likely voter screen accounts properly for youth-vote turnout.

Neither candidate gets a big advantage on favorability or issues, save one.  When asked if federal government policies have put the country on the right  or wrong course, voters respond negatively by 2-1, 27/56.  If McMahon can exploit that in the final five weeks, she should be able to pin the Democratic agenda on Blumenthal and score a huge upset in Connecticut.


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Put him in the infamous FIGURE 4 LEGLOCK!

ted c on September 27, 2010 at 2:57 PM

SMACKDOWN!!!

RedNewEnglander on September 27, 2010 at 2:58 PM

SMACKDOWN!!

Sekhmet on September 27, 2010 at 2:58 PM

To be the man, you gotta beat the man. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Doughboy on September 27, 2010 at 2:59 PM

Superfly Snuka off the TOP ROPE!!

ted c on September 27, 2010 at 3:00 PM

Hilarious!!!

McMahon for Senate!!!!!

keepinitreal on September 27, 2010 at 3:01 PM

No one is voting for McMahon. 45% are voting against Blumenthal.

Durham68 on September 27, 2010 at 3:04 PM

Fat lady, please have a seat.

rjoco1 on September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM

Two weeks ago, when leaners were part of the totals, Blumenthal held a 53% to 44% lead over McMahon.

Let’s see. What has happened between then and Now?

September 16, 2010:

Obama Stumps for Blumenthal in Conn

Barry once again working his magic stumping for dems!

I hope he campaigns full time between now and Nov. 2nd.

pain train on September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM

Barry once again working his magic stumping for dems!

I hope he campaigns full time between now and Nov. 2nd.

pain train on September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM

heh! great point. Looks like Barry’s stumping is getting blumy shafted.

ted c on September 27, 2010 at 3:10 PM

I hope he campaigns full time between now and Nov. 2nd.

pain train on September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM

What was his famous quip…’unlike in 1994, this time you got me!’ May he be that millstone around all of their necks.

lukespapa on September 27, 2010 at 3:11 PM

Rs for Blumenthal, you silly people!

Schadenfreude on September 27, 2010 at 3:12 PM

Any chance we pick up those two western CT house seats?

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 27, 2010 at 3:13 PM

Furthermore, Blumenthal appears ready to slip under 50% for the first time in the race

He will stage a big comeback once he tells people that not only did he serve in Vietnam, but also in Afghanistan and WWII.

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:17 PM

Awesome! MOE was totally my favorite Stooge!!!

/meggy mac

The Mega Independent on September 27, 2010 at 3:19 PM

She going to set him up in the pedigree then finish him off with the mcmahon elbow.

bessex on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

The circus atmosphere of wrestling? What is all of Washington if not a circus? Have you looked at it lately?

DaydreamBeliever on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

He will stage a big comeback once he tells people that not only did he serve in Vietnam, but also in Afghanistan and WWII.

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:17 PM

Don’t forget Korea and Viet Nam.

Aviator on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

The anger at the politicians who went along to get along and the resulting end of the American Dream by the socialist programs will be a shock to everyone in the system that has always pretended Congress could give away the store for votes, forever.

jimw on September 27, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Don’t forget Korea and Viet Nam.

Aviator on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

And the C-ivil War. He served in both the Union and the Confederate armies so that should satisfy everybody.

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Civil War

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:25 PM

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:17 PM

He also served in the Galactic Civil War, the Clone Wars, the Revolutionary War, the Dominion Wars, World War Z and the Horus Heresy

MyImamToldMeToDoIt on September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Don’t forget Korea and Viet Nam.

Aviator on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

And Grenada.

TexasDan on September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Linda McMahon doesn’t have Richard Blumenthal on the ropes yet

I see what you did there.

Farmer_Joe on September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Give him the 6-1-9 then let him smell what the rock is cookin!

lorien1973 on September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

So now it appears to be that the correct spelling of C-ivil as well as R-evolution is a no-no.

Luka on September 27, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Awesome! MOE was totally my favorite Stooge MARX BROTHER!!!

/meggy mac

The Mega Independent on September 27, 2010 at 3:19 PM

FIFY

You give her far too much credit.

;)

mankai on September 27, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Quick note to all: Get out and vote! Tell your friends: Got out and vote!

tgillian on September 27, 2010 at 3:31 PM

I can see November 2nd from my house.

30 pcs of silver on September 27, 2010 at 3:38 PM

No one is voting for McMahon. 45% are voting against Blumenthal.

Durham68 on September 27, 2010 at 3:04 PM

I live in CT; quite frankly if this is how McMahon gets elected…

I am totally OK with that.

KrisinNE on September 27, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Blumenthal needs to be hit with a chair and then pile drivered!

Mr. Joe on September 27, 2010 at 3:45 PM

No one is voting for McMahon. 45% are voting against Blumenthal.

Durham68 on September 27, 2010 at 3:04 PM

Don’t know about that–I get mailers from McMahon about every other day, and they’ve been running about half negative (criticizing Blumenthal) and half positive (stating what McMahon wants to do if elected). For someone who was never in politics before, she’s running a smart campaign, focusing mostly on jobs, taxes, the economy, small-business development, and energy policy, without any in-your-face polemics. Although she’s pro-choice (boo!), she seems to be a solid conservative on most issues (including Second Amendment rights), and is surprisingly knowledgeable on energy issues.

There are lots of blue “Linda 2010 US Senate” yard signs out in the suburban Hartford area, and I’ve never seen a yard sign for Blumenthal. In the Governor’s race, there are more yard signs for Malloy (D) than for Foley (R). Does this mean there’s more support for McMahon than measured in the polls, or are Blumenthal voters too ashamed to put out a yard sign, or just too poor to own land?

According to Rasmussen, this race is getting close. Blumenthal has been steadily declining through the 50′s, McMahon has climbed out of the 30′s to the mid 40′s. With a little over a month to go, she could pull it out, but still needs to convince about 3% of Blumenarse voters to switch their vote. She can count on MY help!

Steve Z on September 27, 2010 at 3:49 PM

Although she’s pro-choice (boo!), she seems to be a solid conservative on most issues (including Second Amendment rights), and is surprisingly knowledgeable on energy issues.

Energy issues tend to come up if you’re in charge of an international entertainment business which will be adversely affected by increased costs for electricity at the buildings, jet fuel costs for flying your performers and execs around, gasoline for shipping the equipment from city to city in 18-wheelers, etc.

teke184 on September 27, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Don’t forget Korea and Viet Nam.

Aviator on September 27, 2010 at 3:20 PM

And Grenada.

TexasDan on September 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM

And the War of the Worlds and the Star Wars Clone Wars.

Kevin71 on September 27, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Good news, but why more than two weeks between the poll and the report? Two weeks is a lifetime this close to an election.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on September 9, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports.

jnelchef on September 27, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Barry once again working his magic stumping for dems!

I hope he campaigns full time between now and Nov. 2nd.

pain train on September 27, 2010 at 3:07 PM

One of the bloggers at the Hartford Courant actually had high ranking state Dems actually asking Big 0 NOT to come here, due to the fact that Obama’s disapproval up here is over 50% now. He came anyway.

The big debate’s Oct. 4th and I think Linda’s going to pulverize Gomer Pyle.

It’s going to be interesting going down the stretch, Blumers is losing support but Linda’s not devouring it in big bites now, the undecideds seem to be settling in for her to make her final case for their vote. Then again, the polls may be over estimating that young voter turn out to swing it to Blumers.

Unless the college machines (long known for flooding CT elections with fraudulent ballots, never investigated by our AG for some reason/) we’re cursed with up here are rolling, that young voter demo isn’t going to mean squat to Blumers and he’s toast.

If she wins the debate- and the local media’s even having a hard time swallowing The Invisible Man these days so McMahon would really have to blow it to lose- I think she pulls ahead.

If she absolutely eviscerates him in that debate (“WILL SOMEBODY STOP THE DAMN FIGHT?!”) then she’ll ice the campaign right there.

Blumers built a career out of suing businesses.

Linda McMahon built a billion dollar corporation from a small time regional wrestling promotion.

She’s a master of media, it’s how she made her billions.

Blumer’s biggest weakness is his ineptitude at harnessing a FRIENDLY media.

It’s like I said back in the old Castle/O’Donnell threads: There’s other races out there the Dems either ARE going to lose (I called Wisconsin before it went into Leans GOP) and I pointed to West Virginia (Now a toss up, prior to the scandal break, let’s see the next polls coming out of there) and Connecticut (for the reasons above) as winnable.

I still think Gillibrand can be beaten in New York too.

It was already said that this was going to be a strange election cycle.

What’s going to make it strange, I think, is all the seats Dems were supposed to be safe in that they actually end up losing, as opposed to the seats where they were in trouble.

In the races I’m tracking I’ve got:

1. Johnson in a walk in Wisconsin. I think he’s going to win by 10-12 there.

2. Buck to win in Colorado by about 5-8 points.

3. Raese to upset in West Virginia.

4. Angle to eke it out in Nevada.

5. Fiorina getting a boost (and the win) from Moonbeam dragging the whole Dem ticket in Cali. down with him.

6. Still not sold on Kirk, but he may just edge it out in Illinois.

7. Growing confidence in a MacMahon upset in Connecticut.

8. Still not convinced Gillibrand can’t be beat. Think this one’s just going to keep getting tighter and wouldn’t be surprised to see DioGuardi pull it off in New York.

9. Still hopeful that Rossi can turn around a race he should be running away with, because Patty Cakes still hasn’t opened an insurmountable lead.

10. Still not willing to toss out O’Donnell in Deleware. If she hasn’t made any headway by mid-October, (5 point or better rise) I’ll probably write this one off. If she’s gaining ground, this one stays in play.

Taken with the four I’ve already got as pick ups: Toomey in Penn., Coats in Indiana, Boozman in Arkansas and Hoeven in North Dakota, plus full retention, puts the GOP at 45 and only they only need six of those ten for a bare majority.

I think six is quite feasible, seven or eight very possible.

SuperCool on September 27, 2010 at 4:08 PM

For someone who was never in politics before, she’s running a smart campaign

Steve Z on September 27, 2010 at 3:49 PM

A boat load of money can be formidable in politics, a boat load spent wisely can be devastating. Add in Blumie’s lackluster effort to date in a wave year and you have the makings of an upset. The Q Poll is out tomorrow, we’ll have to see what that brings.

jnelchef on September 27, 2010 at 4:15 PM

I’m in CT, too.

Got a McMahon sign on my lawn.

If you want more Dodd, vote Blumy.

If you want someone who’s at least Center Right, vote McMahon.

And um, erm, Ed, McMahon was NEVER considered TOO conservative to run in CT. Peter Schiff got most of the grassroots support, with some also going to Simmons.

But we could do MUCH, MUCH worse than McMahon.

We could get Blumy!

He’s done ENOUGH damage to this state as AG; you don’t want him anywhere near the power to damage the country the same way!

hrh40 on September 27, 2010 at 4:19 PM

I thought McMahon was another one that the experts said could never ever win?

It’ll be interesting to see how McMahon does in the debates. She’s used to appearing on scripted TV, so that might work in her favor. But if she gets rattled, she could look really bad.

hawksruleva on September 27, 2010 at 4:24 PM

Does anyone else wonder how many races this year will be decided by chicanery?

hawksruleva on September 27, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Factoring in enthusiasm, this will give her a 10% win, which after chicanery by the Dems will still have her win by 5%.

PastorJon on September 27, 2010 at 4:32 PM

It’ll be interesting to see how McMahon does in the debates. She’s used to appearing on scripted TV, so that might work in her favor. But if she gets rattled, she could look really bad.

hawksruleva on September 27, 2010 at 4:24 PM

Ever seen WWE TV? Linda looked so wooden in her appearances there that I was half-expecting to see ventriloquist Jeff Dunham’s hand up her *ss. However, I chalk that up to her attempting to be a performer when, instead, she’s been the business brains behind the company while her husband managed the talent side of things.

I expect her to be a lot more natural when answering questions that she has genuine feelings about then trying to look natural as her daughter slaps her on cable TV.

teke184 on September 27, 2010 at 4:35 PM

SuperCool on September 27, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Like your analysis, but I think DioGuardi will have a hard time because he’s kinda a gadfly and he’s pro-life in probably the most pro-choice state in the country (maybe VT is worse). Fiorina and Rossi would be great people in the Senate; here’s hoping.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 27, 2010 at 4:59 PM

Good news, but why more than two weeks between the poll and the report? Two weeks is a lifetime this close to an election.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on September 9, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports.

jnelchef on September 27, 2010 at 4:05 PM

This is from the questionnaire:

Connecticut State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 26, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

Not sure why the disparity but I’ve got to believe the later date is correct.

pain train on September 27, 2010 at 5:20 PM

Time for blumie to call in
SLICK WILLIE?

Col.John Wm. Reed on September 27, 2010 at 5:23 PM

Let’s see…

Almost within margin of error, millions to spend, five weeks to go, possible Republican tidal wave…

What’s the contract on InTrade?

patch on September 27, 2010 at 5:52 PM

McMahon moving closer in CT, almost within MOE.

Dear Ed,

Is that what you’d call MOEmentum?

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on September 27, 2010 at 6:20 PM

Big ol’ stinkface coming for Blumenthal.

pdigaudio on September 27, 2010 at 6:32 PM

I told y’all way back whenever that she’d win, even before Chris Dodd wasn’t gonna run.

SouthernGent on September 27, 2010 at 6:41 PM