Gillibrand lead down to a single point; Update: Q-poll puts Gillibrand up only 6

posted at 9:30 am on September 23, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, we got the first big hint that the Tea Party wave may have crashed all the way to the normally safe haven of New York when a Quinnipiac poll put Carl Paladino just six points back of Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial race.  Today, Survey USA confirms that Paladino has made it a race, but the bigger news is in one of the two Senate races.  Harry Reid declared Kirsten Gillibrand the hottest member of the Democratic caucus, but her campaign has gone decidedly lukewarm (via Jim Geraghty and Instapundit):

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand’s nominal 1-point lead being within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

The New York Democrat and Chronicle buries this lead a bit, mentioning it deep in an article mainly focusing on Cuomo’s troubles:

Other SurveyUSA results: Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joseph DioGuardi is running neck and neck with Democratic incumbent KirstenGillibrand for the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton; and Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer holds a commanding 21 percentage point lead over challenger Jay Townsend, a Republican.

The actual split is 45/44 Gillibrand, whose support comes entirely from the Big Apple.  DioGuardi gets almost 2-1 support from younger voters and splits the middle-age ranges with Gillibrand.  The incumbent Democrat wins seniors by 56/32, a demographic that DioGuardi will have to address quickly in order to surpass Gillibrand.

On party affiliation, both candidates lose about the same percentage of their own parties: 15% of Republicans go for Gillibrand and 12% of Democrats go for DioGuardi.  The challenger gets a plurality of independents, 45/38, with 14% going to one of the “other” parties on the ballot.  That could be a productive target for a last-minute push if the Republican can convince those independents that he can bring the change they seek by tossing a Democrat out of office.

Assuming the poll numbers hold up, and Survey USA is normally pretty reliable, then Democrats really are at risk of losing the Senate as well as the House.  At the least, losing a seat in New York would be a tremendous rebuke to the Democrats and may signal a resurgence of the GOP in the Northeast.

Update: A little more confirmation on the NY Senate race from Quinnipiac, which shows Gillibrand up six and below 50%:

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 – 42 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 – 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 – 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

New York State voters approve 49 – 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 – 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.

She’s been in the Senate for two years, and a quarter of likely voters don’t know her well enough to give her a favorability rating?  That seems like it might be the problem in a nutshell.  DioGuardi can still define her and get a lot more upside while doing so, if eveything falls into place for him.


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Can I git an AMEN

blatantblue on September 23, 2010 at 9:31 AM

DioGuardi gets almost 2-1 support from younger voters

That’s generally shocking for a Republican… but in NY? Hard to comprehend.

mankai on September 23, 2010 at 9:33 AM

NY voters must be biased against hot senators. The shame!

jwolf on September 23, 2010 at 9:33 AM

AWESOME. Even more awesome is that DioGuardi is a big Ron Paul supporter.

I can’t wait for Iowa Straw Poll.

Spathi on September 23, 2010 at 9:34 AM

She is hot with the ancient self-proclaimed amateur boxer, “war is lost”, real estate fraud crowd.

applebutter on September 23, 2010 at 9:36 AM

Only moderate squishes have any chance in the Northeast.

/

mankai on September 23, 2010 at 9:36 AM

People in New York aren’t immune from the anger at Democrats in Washington – they’ve got two Senate races and a race for governor involving a career pol who had a major role in getting the sub-prime mortgage crisis going that led to the current economic collapse. So they want to vote someone out of office or punish someone trying to get back into office, but it’s just a matter of at least one of the Republican candidates against Gillibrand, Cuomo and even Chuckie S meeting the threshold where they’re comfortable putting them into office.

jon1979 on September 23, 2010 at 9:36 AM

but, she’s hot….
/reid

ted c on September 23, 2010 at 9:37 AM

DioGuardi gets almost 2-1 support from younger voters and splits the middle-age ranges with Gillibrand.

The incumbent Democrat wins seniors by 56/32, a demographic that DioGuardi will have to address quickly in order to surpass Gillibrand.

I feel like I’m in Bizarro World here. How the hell are seniors breaking nearly 2-1 for Gillibrand?! Have they heard of Obamacare?

Doughboy on September 23, 2010 at 9:37 AM

But… but… she’s hot and stuff!

- Harry Reid

Bat Chain Puller on September 23, 2010 at 9:37 AM

When she and Reid are retired in 2011, she can find out what he meant by that “hottest” comment in her spare time.

thebrokenrattle on September 23, 2010 at 9:38 AM

sorry ted. you’re fast.

Bat Chain Puller on September 23, 2010 at 9:38 AM

Hey, at least she gives Harry Reid a -ahem- thrill up his leg.

BKeyser on September 23, 2010 at 9:38 AM

jon1979 on September 23, 2010 at 9:36 AM

We also have some of the worst property tax rates in the nation. People are sick of it. If we can get a DioGuardi win, and MAYBE unseat Tim Bishop 1st District Long Island, I’ll be a happy man.

blatantblue on September 23, 2010 at 9:38 AM

On party affiliation, both candidates lose about the same percentage of their own parties: 15% of Republicans go for Gillibrand and 12% of Democrats go for DioGuardi.

Wow! Can either be truly called a Republican, or Democrat? What Republican in his or her right mind would vote for someone who voted lock step with the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda? On the other hand, why would Democrats vote for the challenger?

This really makes no sense to me, other than, neither is really affiliated with their party, but rather….independents?

capejasmine on September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM

You know what this means… GET THOSE WALLETS OUT!

(for O’Donnell, natch. I don’t know what this is but it can’t possibly be as important as Delaware)

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Gillibrand has been comfortable in the past adopting a few rightist positions… watch those come to the fore in her campaign ads.

mankai on September 23, 2010 at 9:40 AM

But she’s the hottest member of Congress.
Who’s Harry going to oogle?…………oh yeah, he’s going home too.

ORconservative on September 23, 2010 at 9:41 AM

Senator-from-the-blazing-depths-of-eternal-agonizing-hell Harry Reid knows “hot” when he sees it.

NoDonkey on September 23, 2010 at 9:43 AM

Can I git an AMEN

blatantblue on September 23, 2010 at 9:31 AM

Amen!

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 9:43 AM

DioGuardi gets almost 2-1 support from younger voters

That’s generally shocking for a Republican… but in NY? Hard to comprehend.

mankai on September 23, 2010 at 9:33 AM

And the Democrat is winning the older voters. Opposite the demographics Democrats always cite when they say conservatism is going to die out. Is New York state turning red as the old liberals move to Florida or pass on?

forest on September 23, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Gillibrand has been comfortable in the past adopting a few rightist positions… watch those come to the fore in her campaign ads.

mankai on September 23, 2010 at 9:40 AM

The only problem with that strategery is that she has to defend her votes on Porkulus and Obamacare. She’s also publicly supported card check and amnesty since becoming a Senator. Oh, and she’s one of only 7 Senators to vote AGAINST cutting off funding for ACORN.

Seriously, if New Yorkers get past party affiliation and vote with their heads, this should be no contest.

Doughboy on September 23, 2010 at 9:44 AM

I guess she ain’t that hot.

Rocks on September 23, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Is New York state turning red as the old liberals move to Florida or pass on?

forest on September 23, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Don’t hold your breath. This is a state that’s about to send Bill Owens and Scott Murphy back to the House, not to mention Chuck Schumer to the Senate.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Keep talking Dingy

Wade on September 23, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Is it possible the propaganda that the New York Times has been brainwashing the lemmings with for decades is not working as it always has? Expect the race card and class warfare to be racheted up to levels never seen before this thing is over. Its all they have.

volsense on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

If Dick Morris is right about the +5 GOP enthusiasm gap, Senator Hotness is actually -4.

flyfisher on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

No offense but I have a hard time trusting New York and California voters. I just think at the last moment they won’t be able to take a leap of faith away from liberalism.

Cindy Munford on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

HMMM I wonder if she will NOW refund the campaign donations she received from the GZM developer ?

What kind of message does this send HILLARY and her calculations if she decides to run in 2102 ?

If the theme of deflated numbers among conservatives rings true this could easily be a + 4 for Joe DioGuardi

I KNOW !!!!!
Let’s get JAMES CARVILLE to star in the DEMOCRATIC ads and say
“It’s the economy, stupid”
LOL

ELMO Q on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

(for O’Donnell, natch. I don’t know what this is but it can’t possibly be as important as Delaware)

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Delaware is important because that Senator will be sworn in immediately. O’Donnell will be a ‘no’ vote in the lame duck congress.

ladyingray on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

I can’t wait for Iowa Straw Poll.

Spathi on September 23, 2010 at 9:34 AM

~~sigh~~
Who lifted your rock?

Patrick S on September 23, 2010 at 9:47 AM

Looks like Senator Hottie’s campaign is cooling off. Can Dingy Harry re-light her fire?

novaculus on September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Chris Gibson could also use some help up here in NY-20.

Chris Gibson – Rock Star Republican

“Military historian and columnist, Victor Davis Hanson, says the following about Chris Gibson:”

Chris Gibson is different from the rest of us. His past is almost mythical: PhD from Cornell, author of a good book on military/civilian relations, 24 years in the military, retired at rank of colonel, West Point instructor, 7 overseas deployments (4 in Iraq), a medal winner for gallantry (4 bronze stars), wounded in battle (purple heart) — it goes on and on. I met him when he was a security fellow at Hoover, and again in Iraq when deployed in Anbar province during the surge in 2007. I don’t think I have ever met anyone quite like him — fearless, soft-spoken, 19th century in belief and comportment, honest.

Connie on September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Delaware is important because that Senator will be sworn in immediately. O’Donnell will be a ‘no’ vote in the lame duck congress.

ladyingray on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

No, she won’t be any kind of vote at all, since she’s going to get blown out.

DioGuardi, if he gets elected, will be reviled as a RINO. Mark it down.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Chris Gibson could also use some help up here in NY-20.

Connie on September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Yes! NY-20 needs a real man representing it… we haven’t had one since Jerry Solomon…

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:49 AM

No offense but I have a hard time trusting New York and California voters. I just think at the last moment they won’t be able to take a leap of faith away from liberalism.

Cindy Munford on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

I really have to agree with you. They’ll bellyache, and whine about how hard they have it with higher taxes, and the degradation of their states….but in the end, they’ll keep voting for it. Every dang time!

capejasmine on September 23, 2010 at 9:49 AM

Don’t hold your breath. This is a state that’s about to send Bill Owens and Scott Murphy back to the House, not to mention Chuck Schumer to the Senate.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Last I checked, Owens is running about even with Hoffman out, Murphy leads but not by much, and Schumer’s running against a nobody in every sense of the word. What’s more, Schumer is actually a retail politician, unlike most of the Democrat caucus.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 9:50 AM

I am also increasingly convinced that every single conservative in America is going to vote, and many, many disillusioned and beleaguered lefties are going to decide to do something more important on election day — wash the cat, plant a tree, go to Whole Foods, beat up a little kid.

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 9:52 AM

Yes! NY-20 needs a real man representing it… we haven’t had one since Jerry Solomon…

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:49 AM

Yep. My dad and Jerry were good friends.

Connie on September 23, 2010 at 9:52 AM

DioGuardi, if he gets elected, will be reviled as a RINO. Mark it down.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Okay, this is just stupid. Have you actually read his issue stances? They’re roughly about even with Paul Ryan’s, with the notable exception that he’s anti-war. He’s pro-life, for goodness’ sake. Stop casting aspersions about things you don’t know.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 9:52 AM

time for Joe D. to shoot a fun commercial with daughter Kara of American Idol fame…will get LOTS of mileage.

joepub on September 23, 2010 at 9:52 AM

Last I checked, Owens is running about even with Hoffman out, Murphy leads but not by much, and Schumer’s running against a nobody in every sense of the word. What’s more, Schumer is actually a retail politician, unlike most of the Democrat caucus.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 9:50 AM

The fact that Owens, even as an incumbent, is even in that race is scary. Murphy leads by 17 points. Chuck Schumer is still a scumbag, regardless of who he’s running against. Our state is generally pretty hopeless politically, KingGold. Shelly Silver and his cronies continue to drive the state into the ground and the sheeple still gleefully return to the polls every other November and return them to Albany and then wonder why nothing ever changes.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

Wait, Chuckles is up for reelection too? So some people are going to vote for both Chuckles & DioGuardi?

Why?

rbj on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

I blame the sexism.

And BOOOOOSSSSHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

N. O'Brain on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

I am still pretty creeped out by dusty, dingy, death-pallor Harry Reid referring to this chick as “hot”. WTF is up with that?

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

But she’s the hottest member of Congress.
Who’s Harry going to oogle?…………oh yeah, he’s going home too.

ORconservative on September 23, 2010 at 9:41 AM

Sharron Angle!

Steve Z on September 23, 2010 at 9:54 AM

Maybe the REAL story / theme here is
Democratic operatives sought out and funded Candidates that were PRO GUN and slipped them into office in districts that were right of center .
NOW that OBAMA has ran the country into the ground , these ” Moderate Democrats ( same as a RINO ) will be the first ones to be thrown out of office
Here in Alabama we have Bobby Bright and he is in real trouble .
How many of the Dem’s are running ads that claim
” I am the most Independent member of Congress”
Reminds me of the AUTO INSURANCE ads
How can you ALL save me $ 500 .00?
How can ALL the Democrats be ” the MOST independent “?
Couldnt only ONE be the MOST independent ?

I know Bright received an NRA thumbs up and if memory serves me right Gillibrand claimed she ” slept with a gun under her bed ”
Then amended the story and said it was safely locked away
Might be interesting to see how many of the DEMS in tight races CLAIM to be PRO GUN
Harry REID would be another one wouldnt he ?

ELMO Q on September 23, 2010 at 9:55 AM

It might be time to sell New York to Canada, what the hell is wrong with the voters there, tainted water?

Bishop on September 23, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Okay, this is just stupid. Have you actually read his issue stances? They’re roughly about even with Paul Ryan’s, with the notable exception that he’s anti-war. He’s pro-life, for goodness’ sake. Stop casting aspersions about things you don’t know.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 9:52 AM

Yes, I’ve seen them. Big fan of Joe’s. Note that I didn’t say that he WAS a RINO, I said that people on here would REVILE him as one. I get how people around here operate – if he deviates from the Tea Party line even once, he’s a liberal in disguise. And it’ll happen even though he can be counted on as a solid conservative, even more so than the Snowe/Collins/Brown northeastern Republican set.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:55 AM

incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even..

This – GOOD

Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer holds a commanding 21 percentage point lead over challenger Jay Townsend, a Republican.

This – VERY BAD

Got to kick both of these morons out on their keesters (sp?)

sicoit on September 23, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Woah, that’s pwnage.

crr6

QFT

fossten on September 23, 2010 at 9:56 AM

I’m telling you people – if you really want to get rid of Schumer, donate to Jay Townshend’s campaign. It’s nothing you’re not already doing in Delaware.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:56 AM

Our state is generally pretty hopeless politically, KingGold. Shelly Silver and his cronies continue to drive the state into the ground and the sheeple still gleefully return to the polls every other November and return them to Albany and then wonder why nothing ever changes.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

I agree with you in some ways but not in others. The political battle in New York has always been checking the state legislature. That’s why the election of the squishes Pataki and D’Amato were the victories they were.

The Assembly is population-based, so naturally the City is going to control it lock stock and barrel. The Senate isn’t much better, but at least it was balanced.

Now that we have total leftist control, we see what happens. The budget’s in freefall and Governor Urkel is about to go to war with our Indian tribes.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 9:57 AM

Biden’s old seat: ?
Obama’s old seat: ?
Hillary’s old seat: ?
Harry Reid’s current seat: ?

Abby Adams on September 23, 2010 at 9:58 AM

Polls like this are starting to frustrate me more and more that neither of my senators are up for re-election this year in Michigan :(

jjjdad on September 23, 2010 at 9:59 AM

Yes, I’ve seen them. Big fan of Joe’s. Note that I didn’t say that he WAS a RINO, I said that people on here would REVILE him as one.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Okay. Sorry for misunderstanding your intent. But if you look at the apostasies that the famous RINOs have committed, it’s not really jumping at shadows.

Castle supported cap-and-trade and DISCLOSE.
Snowe voted for the stimulus and game some Dems cover on healthcare. Ditto Collins.
Brown enabled the Permanent Bailout act to be passed, though the anger at him is decidedly more muted.
Murkowski was a big-spending pro-abortion zealot in one of the reddest states in the union.

I think tea party people will like DioGuardi. I know I will.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 10:01 AM

You know what this means… GET THOSE WALLETS OUT!

(for O’Donnell, natch. I don’t know what this is but it can’t possibly be as important as Delaware)

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM

I can understand frustration over O’Donnell, but doesn’t it seem counter productive to bring her up in a thread in order to gripe about her seemingly-ubiquitous appearances in other threads?

Donating to O’Donnell’s campaign may very well be a lost cause, but if people want to do that, then why should it concern any one else? It seems silly and a bit ironic to keep dragging out this caricature that O’Donnell supporters are blind to anything but O’Donnell.

BlueCollarAstronaut on September 23, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Yes, but is DioGuardi hot?

Enquiring minds want to know. /sarc

UnderstandingisPower on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

Can I git an AMEN

blatantblue on September 23, 2010 at 9:31 AM

blatantblue:Yes-Amen!!:)

canopfor on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

۞blabba is holding forth now on FOX at the UN.

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

And now this:

“Cuomo Caught Lying About Voting For Bloomberg?”

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2010/09/22/poll-paladino-closing-in-on-cuomo/

davidk on September 23, 2010 at 10:09 AM

Gillibrand is in Schumer’s back pocket. They travel together to and from NY. Best to get rid of The Hottest Member and diminish Schmucky’s power as much as possible since he is likely to be next majority leader if Reid loses (and might be anyway). Of course, I hope Reps will take the Senate but I’m pragmatic.

DioGuardi may be getting the youth vote due to being Kara’s (former American Idol judge) father??? Little other explanation unless there has suddenly been a tea party spell cast over NY under 30s. Call me jaded but based on youth vote for Obama and then this, I think under 30s really do just vote on “rock star” status. Glad it is going the “right” way this time.

Greyledge Gal on September 23, 2010 at 10:09 AM

Polls like this are starting to frustrate me more and more that neither of my senators are up for re-election this year in Michigan :(

jjjdad on September 23, 2010 at 9:59 AM

Count your blessings. Here in IL even in a possible wave year “we” might elect an out and out mobster to the Senate. I sympathize with the sentiments above about the liberalism of CA and NY voters, but it seems that in IL we just won’t draw the line anywhere.

jwolf on September 23, 2010 at 10:10 AM

It seems silly and a bit ironic to keep dragging out this caricature that O’Donnell supporters are blind to anything but O’Donnell.

BlueCollarAstronaut on September 23, 2010 at 10:03 AM

It’s what they do to convince us that these candidates are unpopular, stupid, cannot win, etc. They cut their teeth doing this stuff to Palin. They’ve only shifted focus to O’Donnell. They will dress her down, make everyone think she is unelectable, throw every desparaging thing they can come up with about her–true or not. It’s how they take down one of their own by shooting them in the back.

Great people to be in a foxhole with, don’t you think?

UnderstandingisPower on September 23, 2010 at 10:11 AM

Donating to O’Donnell’s campaign may very well be a lost cause,
BlueCollarAstronaut on September 23, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Baby you’re lost
Baby you’re lost
Baby you’re a lost cause

There’s too many people you used to know
They see you coming they see you go
They know your secrets and you know theirs
This town is crazy; nobody cares

Baby you’re lost
Baby you’re lost
Baby you’re a lost cause

I’m tired of fighting
I’m tired of fighting
Fighting for a lost cause

ChrisB on September 23, 2010 at 10:11 AM

KirstenGillibrand
====================

Excellent,USS Republican is in striking distance with
her main guns,commence firing,November 2,till she is
a smok’n political wreck!(snark).

canopfor on September 23, 2010 at 10:12 AM

Shocka! He hasn’t bowed once. (yet)

He is, however talking nonsense as usual. Green blah blah, Iran open hand blah blah, middle east blah blah, some say blah blah, I, I, I.

I’m getting cross-eyed watching him turn left, right, left, right…

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:12 AM

The incumbent Democrat wins seniors by 56/32, a demographic that DioGuardi will have to address quickly in order to surpass Gillibrand.

Here in SW Ohio, the sappy Andy Griffin Obamacare ad is being run nonstop. Maybe it’s being run in NY too. I’d love it if the conservatives could find some crusty, trustworthy, recognizable actor to do a competing ad that informs seniors that Andy Griffin has his head up his a** and that Obamacare is going to screw them.

My first suggestion would be Wilfred Brimley. Anyone have another suggestion? In all events, I need something to counter the Andy Griffin ad–it’s horrible.

BuckeyeSam on September 23, 2010 at 10:13 AM

۞blabba is holding forth now on FOX at the UN.

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

hillbillyjim:I do love your typing key thingy creativity!

I think DinnerJacket speaks after Changey!:)

canopfor on September 23, 2010 at 10:14 AM

The actual split is 45/44 Gillibrand, whose support comes entirely from the Big Apple.

If Rudy Giuliani had run for this seat, he would have split the Big Apple and become a Senator by winning upstate.

Meanwhile, Madam Secretary of State is wishing she was a Senator.

How about some Joe-mentum in NY?

The strategy of promoting Senators to the White House seems to be backfiring…

Sen. Barack Obama was elected President–his replacement isn’t running for re-election, the Dem candidate is trailing in the polls.

Sen. Joe Biden was elected VP–his replacement isn’t running for re-election.

Sen. Ken Salazar became Interior Secretary–his replacement in CO is trailing in the polls.

Sen. Hillary Clinton became Secretary of State–her replacement in NY is in trouble.

Anyone notice a pattern here?

Steve Z on September 23, 2010 at 10:14 AM

But… but… she’s hot and stuff!

- Harry Reid

Bat Chain Puller on September 23, 2010 at 9:37 AM

“Mmmmm, Kirsten. I know I said Chris Coons is my pet, but I would sooooo dump him for you…”

ChrisB on September 23, 2010 at 10:15 AM

I’m getting cross-eyed watching him turn left, right, left, right…

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:12 AM

hillbillyjim: Careful,ya might get sea-sick,with his side to
side head sweeps,and his invisable hand puppet
show,multiple hand gestures!:)

canopfor on September 23, 2010 at 10:17 AM

I notice that some are using disrespectful honorifics for President Acmehandjob and President Post-turtle.

For shame!

novaculus on September 23, 2010 at 10:17 AM

I am still pretty creeped out by dusty, dingy, death-pallor Harry Reid referring to this chick as “hot”. WTF is up with that?

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 9:53 AM

Ides for Senator REID have announced he will hold a press ” event at noon .
REID is expected to say ( now that Gillibrand is on the ropes )
That he is changing his statement , and that he only made the ” HOT ” comment because after AMNESTY failed he was trying to support immigration reform by purchasing his ERECTILE DYSFUNCTION tablets from illegal immigrants , and that cheap , inferior quality medication smuggled across the border ” gave him a chemical imbalance ”
LOL

ELMO Q on September 23, 2010 at 10:18 AM

۞blabba is holding forth now on FOX at the UN.

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

*snort* whatevah. The moron-in-chief is just going to say the same blah-blah-blah about how we are too rich, too mean to everyone and apologize again. But thanks hillbillyjim for sharing. :-)

sicoit on September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Yes, but is DioGuardi hot?

Enquiring minds want to know. /sarc

UnderstandingisPower on September 23, 2010 at 10:08 AM

If you mean Kara DioGuardi, then yes she is hot. If her dad promises to have her strip down to a bikini again at his victory rally, that’ll probably put him over the top with voters.

Doughboy on September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Donating to O’Donnell’s campaign may very well be a lost cause, but if people want to do that, then why should it concern any one else?

Maybe those who think donating to O’Donnell’s campaign is a lost cause might consider donating to DioGuardi, who seems to be within striking distance according to SUSA.

Steve Z on September 23, 2010 at 10:20 AM

*snort* whatevah. The moron-in-chief is just going to say the same blah-blah-blah about how we are too rich, too mean to everyone and apologize again. But thanks hillbillyjim for sharing. :-)

sicoit on September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM

He’ll probably sh!t on Arizona, again.

(Sorry for OT.)

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM

Holy Shiite.

۞jesus supports blurred borders.

Surreal.

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:25 AM

He’ll probably sh!t on Arizona, again.

(Sorry for OT.)

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:23 AM

This will just be more fodder for Ed’s OOTD tomorrow! I Can’t Wait!

sicoit on September 23, 2010 at 10:25 AM

I can understand frustration over O’Donnell, but doesn’t it seem counter productive to bring her up in a thread in order to gripe about her seemingly-ubiquitous appearances in other threads?

Donating to O’Donnell’s campaign may very well be a lost cause, but if people want to do that, then why should it concern any one else? It seems silly and a bit ironic to keep dragging out this caricature that O’Donnell supporters are blind to anything but O’Donnell.

BlueCollarAstronaut on September 23, 2010 at 10:03 AM

It is frustration, plain and simple. When you see races like this that aren’t supposed to be close that may actually be close, the way they are in NV, CA, WI, etc. it frustrates me to no end that people are ignoring these real opportunities for pickups to beat their head against the wall in a race that has about as much chance of going our way as the Chuck Schumer race (that is to say, it’s not happening).

If people want to send their money to a lost cause, that’s their prerogative. But that doesn’t mean I’m not going to try to point out what a waste it is. That money would be better spent in a competitive race.

I point out the blindness because the first reactions when polls in New York indicated close races, the first comments I started seeing on my tweet feed were – “well, if we can get this close in New York, we can close the gap in Delaware!” The single-mindedness of a lost race with a flawed candidate is extremely frustrating to someone who is trying to advance conservatism where it can reasonably be advanced. I don’t like beating my head against the wall. So yes, I will, like Rush, use absurdity to illustrate absurdity.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Once more, then I’ll stop.

…OPEN SOCIETY…

…BLURRED BORDERS…

His words.

Got Soros?

hillbillyjim on September 23, 2010 at 10:30 AM

If you mean Kara DioGuardi, then yes she is hot. If her dad promises to have her strip down to a bikini again at his victory rally, that’ll probably put him over the top with voters.

Doughboy on September 23, 2010 at 10:19 AM

Between Kara’s dad and Scott Brown’s daughter, the GOP sure has a lot in common with American Idol lately. Now if the GOP could only recruit Kathryn McPhee…

Palin/McPhee 2012

ChrisB on September 23, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Here is the current ranking of possible GOP Senate pickups, based on the number of points the GOP candidate is ahead/behind in the RCP polling average:

ND +44
AR +21
IN +16
WI +8
PA +7
CO +2
IL +1
NV -0.5
WV -2
CA -4
WA -4
NY -6
CT -8
DE -16

(notice that if the GOP wins every seat where they are currently ahead, plus NV and WV, they gain 9 seats, meaning that losing DE costs them the Senate)

Jon0815 on September 23, 2010 at 10:38 AM

She is hotter than DioGuardi, I`ll give her that much.

ThePrez on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Delaware is important because that Senator will be sworn in immediately. O’Donnell will be a ‘no’ vote in the lame duck congress.
ladyingray on September 23, 2010 at 9:46 AM

The DE race isn’t the only special election, this one is too, along with WV & IL. Not completely sure if this one gets seated immediately, but the IL seat does, and logic says all of them would. Joe Dioguardi & John Raese both would be solid conservative votes and seem to have better shots at winning that COD. I sent JD money last week and did so again
last night. He seriously needs help to win this seat.

Maybe it’s that Joe’s daughter is way hotter that Gillabrand?

lizzie beth on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 10:27 AM

I happen to agree. I’d love nothing more than to see Chuck Schumer forcibly retired, but wish in one hand, and all that.

I’ll settle for DioGuardi, and making sure that Schumer and Dick Turban start slitting each other’s throats for the chance to lead a dwindling Senate minority.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Between Kara’s dad and Scott Brown’s daughter, the GOP sure has a lot in common with American Idol lately. Now if the GOP could only recruit Kathryn McPhee…

Palin/McPhee 2012

ChrisB on September 23, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Yeah, and now they’re taking over Dancing With the Stars as well with Tom Delay and Bristol Palin. And they already own The Real World thanks to Sean Duffy and Rachel Campos.

Great job GOP cornering the Reality TV market.

Doughboy on September 23, 2010 at 10:44 AM

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

Amen, brother, amen.

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 10:45 AM

It’s not just Gillibrand. In the House, Barney Frank is getting exceedingly nervous…

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/is-barney-frank-nervous-bill-clinton-coming-to-rescue-in-ma/

If you’re tired of sending $$ to others, there might be another here to consider. Sean Bielat anyone?

http://seanbielat.org/

Check out that top headline! Frank cooking the books? Surely NOT!

UnderstandingisPower on September 23, 2010 at 10:49 AM

Update: Siena poll finds unanimous support for Gillibrand, and also finds her to be “the hottest b!tch in Senate history”.

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 10:52 AM

What’s up with the polls?

Sienna sure doesn’t suggest optimism here.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 10:57 AM

(notice that if the GOP wins every seat where they are currently ahead, plus NV and WV, they gain 9 seats, meaning that losing DE costs them the Senate)

Jon0815 on September 23, 2010 at 10:38 AM

(also notice that RCP is an a$$clown website and meaningless pollster, in that they average out a bunch of polls, many of which are absurd, like Quinnipiac, Siena and anything from network news or CNN).

Jaibones on September 23, 2010 at 10:58 AM

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 10:57 AM

Siena’s primary poll was off by twenty points. It’s safe to say that they don’t hold a lot of water.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Siena’s primary poll was off by twenty points. It’s safe to say that they don’t hold a lot of water.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 11:02 AM

Oh, OK.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:02 AM

What’s up with the polls?

Sienna sure doesn’t suggest optimism here.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 10:57 AM

Sienna polled a great deal of registered voters. Hence the disconnect.

Marybeth on September 23, 2010 at 11:03 AM

Sienna polled a great deal of registered voters. Hence the disconnect.

Marybeth on September 23, 2010 at 11:03 AM

One “N” in Siena, folks. I’m a college basketball fan. :-D

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Is New York state turning red as the old liberals move to Florida or pass on?

forest on September 23, 2010 at 9:44 AM

Unfortunately many of them end up voting in both places; easy to do since there’s no cross-state verification of rolls.

slickwillie2001 on September 23, 2010 at 11:06 AM

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

yup, yup. So agree. Joe DioGuardi is a great candidate. Plus, he’s a CPA. It’s about candidate quality and sending money to candidates that have a real shot, and Joe needs lots of money. O’Donnell’s best shot might be if Castle gets back in the race.

I forgot, the Colorado race is also a SE that is within reach. Ken Buck is a wonderful conservative that has a great shot to win, and might get seated immediately. So the all in on DE strategy might not even be necessary given the state of the races in CO, NY & WV.

lizzie beth on September 23, 2010 at 11:09 AM

I think that the DNC is now pulling out of some lost races, to conserve money.

The teaparty shouldn’t worry a heck of a lot about Alaska or dump too much money there. Lisa has money, but she appears so ineffectual that I’m not sure she can spend it effectively, anyway.

And that IS going to be the next grumbling point. We’re also done with these multi-million elections.

It’s ridiculous.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:11 AM

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