Gillibrand lead down to a single point; Update: Q-poll puts Gillibrand up only 6

posted at 9:30 am on September 23, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, we got the first big hint that the Tea Party wave may have crashed all the way to the normally safe haven of New York when a Quinnipiac poll put Carl Paladino just six points back of Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial race.  Today, Survey USA confirms that Paladino has made it a race, but the bigger news is in one of the two Senate races.  Harry Reid declared Kirsten Gillibrand the hottest member of the Democratic caucus, but her campaign has gone decidedly lukewarm (via Jim Geraghty and Instapundit):

In the Special Election to fill the final 2 years of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s term, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand’s nominal 1-point lead being within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

The New York Democrat and Chronicle buries this lead a bit, mentioning it deep in an article mainly focusing on Cuomo’s troubles:

Other SurveyUSA results: Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joseph DioGuardi is running neck and neck with Democratic incumbent KirstenGillibrand for the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton; and Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer holds a commanding 21 percentage point lead over challenger Jay Townsend, a Republican.

The actual split is 45/44 Gillibrand, whose support comes entirely from the Big Apple.  DioGuardi gets almost 2-1 support from younger voters and splits the middle-age ranges with Gillibrand.  The incumbent Democrat wins seniors by 56/32, a demographic that DioGuardi will have to address quickly in order to surpass Gillibrand.

On party affiliation, both candidates lose about the same percentage of their own parties: 15% of Republicans go for Gillibrand and 12% of Democrats go for DioGuardi.  The challenger gets a plurality of independents, 45/38, with 14% going to one of the “other” parties on the ballot.  That could be a productive target for a last-minute push if the Republican can convince those independents that he can bring the change they seek by tossing a Democrat out of office.

Assuming the poll numbers hold up, and Survey USA is normally pretty reliable, then Democrats really are at risk of losing the Senate as well as the House.  At the least, losing a seat in New York would be a tremendous rebuke to the Democrats and may signal a resurgence of the GOP in the Northeast.

Update: A little more confirmation on the NY Senate race from Quinnipiac, which shows Gillibrand up six and below 50%:

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 – 42 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 – 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 – 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

New York State voters approve 49 – 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 – 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion.

She’s been in the Senate for two years, and a quarter of likely voters don’t know her well enough to give her a favorability rating?  That seems like it might be the problem in a nutshell.  DioGuardi can still define her and get a lot more upside while doing so, if eveything falls into place for him.


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If I were the Teaparty Express…….hit CA.

Carly Fiorona may not be the teaparty poster gal, but CA is huge.

Huge.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:12 AM

The DE race isn’t the only special election, this one is too, along with WV & IL. Not completely sure if this one gets seated immediately, but the IL seat does, and logic says all of them would. Joe Dioguardi & John Raese both would be solid conservative votes and seem to have better shots at winning that COD. I sent JD money last week and did so again
last night. He seriously needs help to win this seat.

Maybe it’s that Joe’s daughter is way hotter that Gillabrand?

lizzie beth on September 23, 2010 at 10:39 AM

‘Immediately’ is subject to the whims of the controlling democratics. They might be eligible to serve in the lame-duck session, but Dingy will drag out their swearing-in process as long as he can, as he did with Brown. Maybe even long enough, like two weeks, to push through some real damage.

slickwillie2001 on September 23, 2010 at 11:13 AM

One “N” in Siena, folks. I’m a college basketball fan. :-D

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Siena’s a nice place. I did some summer programs there when I was in grade school.

Great basketball, lousy polling.

KingGold on September 23, 2010 at 11:13 AM

So the all in on DE strategy might not even be necessary given the state of the races in CO, NY & WV.

DE may be a pyrrhic victory for them.

Coons being up on O’Donnell rather than trailing Castle by a large margin means they have to spend resources there that they wouldn’t have done otherwise, as they’d have conceded the seat to Castle if he were up.

This means they have to spread themselves even thinner in other races where they’re already looking to write off seats in order to conserve funds.

teke184 on September 23, 2010 at 11:15 AM

So the all in on DE strategy might not even be necessary given the state of the races in CO, NY & WV.

lizzie beth on September 23, 2010 at 11:09 AM

DioGuardi won’t seated immediately, I don’t think. Gillibrand is in for the lame duck session regardless.

The Colorado race is a special election but per this article it is unclear whether the winner will be seated immediately. Look for some Scott Brown-like shenanigans at the state level if Rs win and Dems have the chance to contest an immediate swearing-in. Might happen in IL if Kirk wins.

Missy on September 23, 2010 at 11:18 AM

DE goes to Rove, frankly. Oops*

I promised to let it go.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Ace is reporting that Paladino has proposed the state exercise it’s right of eminent domain to declare an easement on the Ground Zero property to make it impossible to establish a mosque there. That in itself ought to win some votes.

silvernana on September 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM

You know what this means… GET THOSE WALLETS OUT!

(for O’Donnell, natch. I don’t know what this is but it can’t possibly be as important as Delaware)

Red Cloud on September 23, 2010 at 9:39 AM

..hey, folks, don’t forget about Carly Simon.

Dumping Dem senators on BOTH coasts would be almost..no TRULY.. seismic.

The War Planner on September 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM

..er..Carly Fiorina. Carly Simon already has enough scratch.

The War Planner on September 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM

OT..but what is dear Reader doing on TV again? Reading from the teleprompter, head going back and forth like a tennis match. Who is he lecturing now?

lukespapa on September 23, 2010 at 11:25 AM

silvernana on September 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM

At this point?

Not many. It would be too dramatic now.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:35 AM

lukespapa on September 23, 2010 at 11:25 AM

It’s a UN speech, IIRC.

teke184 on September 23, 2010 at 11:36 AM

And I’d pull all money from MA.

The latest headline on this blog?

What an insult to teapartiers there. Do NOT go for this guy, for sure. Let MA stay blue.

AnninCA on September 23, 2010 at 11:38 AM

“Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer holds a commanding 21 percentage point lead over challenger Jay Townsend, a Republican.”

The sooner my state secedes from the Union inhabited by states that keep sending us Chuckles Schumer to make laws under which we must live, the better. We don’t need New York’s idea of “good governance” out here.

quikstrike98 on September 23, 2010 at 11:40 AM

Nearly a hundred posts so far, and yet not a single one of you has brought up DioGuardi’s very Hot Babe-alicious daughter Kara DioGuardi.

Shows you guys are getting entirely too wonkish, and political junkie-ish. Step away from that computer and take your girlfriend out for a bite and a movie.

ericdondero on September 23, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Gillibrand is one of the 7 senators who voted against defunding ACORN even after seeing the undercover Breitbart videos.

diogenes on September 23, 2010 at 12:21 PM

“Democratic U.S. Senator Charles Schumer holds a commanding 21 percentage point lead over challenger Jay Townsend, a Republican.”

The fact that nobody’s ever heard of Townsend and he’s at almost 40% I’m taking as a sign of hope. If Paladino and Dioguardi can carry the top, people might not split their tickets down the line. Especially if Lazio drops off the conservative line.

Iblis on September 23, 2010 at 1:14 PM

Once again, Hillbuzz has great political strategy advice to the Party of Stupid.

FREE ADVICE: Republicans in all New York races need to NAIL DEMOCRATS TO THE WALL for their support of the Ground Zero Victory Mosque

afone2 on September 23, 2010 at 1:44 PM

The Colorado race is a special election but per this article it is unclear whether the winner will be seated immediately. Look for some Scott Brown-like shenanigans at the state level if Rs win and Dems have the chance to contest an immediate swearing-in. Might happen in IL if Kirk wins.

Missy on September 23, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Thanks for the info. I’ve been unclear about the WV, CO & NY races. I know DE & IL are *seat immediately* races, reason being I read an article a while back that Roland Burris was thinking about running for the lame duck session, apparently there are two different ballot slots there.

The thing is, if the Dems try to pull some funny business with one of these races they will try to pull them in ALL of them. So, again, the DE one might get screwed up that way too. I have decided that the best way for O’Donnell to win is for Castle to mount a write-in campaign.

lizzie beth on September 23, 2010 at 5:43 PM

I think it’s safe to figure the Senate will have at least 47 REPs after this election, but my reasoning leads me to 52 REP, 48 DEM (incl Leiberman). Am I just being too optimistic?
With the momentum that we’re seeing in previously ‘safe’ DEM states, why wouldn’t we experience a net ten pick ups from Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada, New York, N Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with no DEM pick ups in previously REP seats?.

Red State State of Mind on September 23, 2010 at 6:53 PM

and what about W Virginia?

Red State State of Mind on September 23, 2010 at 6:54 PM

When you’re hot, you’re hot, and when you’re not, you’re not!

ncborn on September 24, 2010 at 7:40 AM

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