NYT: Just a reminder that the Obama recovery has lost more jobs than it created

posted at 2:20 pm on September 21, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The New York Times throws a healthy dash of cold water on an attempt by Democrats and their allies to claim that Barack Obama has created more jobs in the US than George Bush, or even George Washington.  Far from adding net jobs, Catherine Rampell correctly states that the US economy has lost jobs since the start of the recovery, now pegged at June 2009 by the NBER:

The United States economy has lost more jobs than it has added since the recovery began over a year ago.

Yes, you read that correctly.

The downturn officially ended, and the recovery officially began, in June 2009, according to an announcement Monday by the official arbiter of economic turning points. Since that point, total output — the amount of goods and services produced by the United States — has increased, as have many other measures of economic activity.

But nonfarm payrolls are still down 329,000 from their level at the recession’s official end 15 months ago, and the slow growth in recent months means that the unemployed still have a long slog ahead.

It’s actually worse than what this picture paints.  Population growth in the US means that we add around 100,000 working-age adults, after deducting those retiring or otherwise leaving the workforce for reasons other than discouragement.  The average loss of 22,000 jobs a month means that we went backwards 122,000 jobs per month in terms of workforce employment.

The flatline on job creation has dire implications for the White House if it continues much longer, and all indications are that it will:

Even without a full-blown double dip in the economy, the recovery thus far has been so anemic that the job picture seems likely to stagnate, and perhaps even get worse, in the near future.

Many forecasters estimate that output needs to grow over the long run by about 2.5 percent to keep the unemployment rate, now at 9.6 percent, constant. The economy grew at an annual rate of just 1.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, and private forecasts indicate growth will not be much better in the third quarter. (The Business Cycle Dating Committee itself does not engage in forecasting.)

The Reuters forecast for 2011 is for GDP growth of just 2.4%.  Their usual optimism puts the US in a position where jobs continue to slightly erode for most of the next year in static terms, let along against population growth.  This year’s forecast is for 2.7% growth, but that’s after a first quarter of 3.7% annualized rate of growth, which means Q3 and Q4 will fall considerably below the 2.7% mark.

If Reuters turns out to be too optimistic and the US “unexpectedly” tips back into a recession, Rampell points out that Obama won’t be able to claim that he inherited it.  That may not matter much anyway, because the extended high rate of unemployment means that voters won’t have much buy-in to the current recovery and are likely to see it as a confirmation of the failure of Obamanomics.  Even without a second recession, having an unemployment rate in the 9s or even 8s will make the 2012 election cycle into a repeat of 2010 for Democrats.  And if they try to keep committing sophistry by trying to claim massive job creation while unemployment rises, it may be even worse than what Election Night in six weeks looks to be.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

But,but,but the Census workers…..

portlandon on September 21, 2010 at 2:23 PM

But,but,but the Census workers…..

portlandon on September 21, 2010 at 2:23 PM

Are too few for too many unemployed. I applied myself. Word on the street is they had anywhere from 3-5 applicants for each position, and that includes the door-knockers who go into all kinds of neighborhoods.

Dark-Star on September 21, 2010 at 2:24 PM

9.6 my behind. I have a feeling it is up in the teens now. 12 at least. Maybe I am WRONG.. but then I am not jacking with numbers pretending everything is alright either.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:25 PM

The unemployment rate will be their undoing. They can keep harping on the 750,000 jobs lost in January 2009 and how much “better” things are now, but that won’t mean squat if hundreds of thousands of new private sector gigs aren’t being created every month. so that 9.6% rate comes down.

Doughboy on September 21, 2010 at 2:26 PM

The New York Times throws a healthy dash of cold water on an attempt by Democrats and their allies to claim that Barack Obama has created more jobs in the US than George Bush, or even George Washington.

I long for the days when one of those Georges was in charge.

Unfortunately for us, now there’s a new George in charge.

George Soros.

UltimateBob on September 21, 2010 at 2:26 PM

If Reuters turns out to be too optimistic and the US “unexpectedly” tips back into a recession, Rampell points out that Obama won’t be able to claim that he inherited it.

he’ll just merely claim that it was worse than previously expected and only Hmmmmmmm (gimme a number Rahm) ok… $50 billion more in stimulus will work to prevent another one….

strategies. pulled out of your COS’s a$$

ted c on September 21, 2010 at 2:30 PM

Has this number taken into account the new czars and Marie Obama’s burgeoning personal staff?

Bishop on September 21, 2010 at 2:30 PM

I miss King George

faraway on September 21, 2010 at 2:30 PM

9.6 my behind. I have a feeling it is up in the teens now. 12 at least. Maybe I am WRONG.. but then I am not jacking with numbers pretending everything is alright either.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:25 PM

Your gut feeling is most likely correct. I keep hearing rumors that the BLS is monkeying around with total population numbers, and has been for some time.

Johnnyreb on September 21, 2010 at 2:31 PM

Count it!

lorien1973 on September 21, 2010 at 2:32 PM

Your gut feeling is most likely correct. I keep hearing rumors that the BLS is monkeying around with total population numbers, and has been for some time.

Johnnyreb on September 21, 2010 at 2:31 PM

Clinton comes to mind.. but I have a feeling it was much further back. Before I was even a glint in my Father’s eye.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Dear leader will still blame W….it is a guarantee, he will NEVER admit failure….

cmsinaz on September 21, 2010 at 2:34 PM

Dear leader will still blame W….it is a guarantee, he will NEVER admit failure….

cmsinaz on September 21, 2010 at 2:34 PM

Neither will any of the Libs in the House, Senate… regualr voting Americans.

The “W” will live forever in their heads, rent free, which makes it interesting on who was wrong and right?

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:36 PM

But the jobs SAVED! You forgot to count them! Never mind that we never did anything of the sort before this administration, and that there’s no way to reliably do that – which makes it ripe for fiction. Also, did you count those jobs in zip codes that don’t exist?

Eren on September 21, 2010 at 2:37 PM

***breaking***

SARAH PAC just released a TEA Party video 1 min ago
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X67qgNtZPdQ

ted c on September 21, 2010 at 2:37 PM

Democrats Introduce Bill Repealing Laws of Economics

Mervis Winter on September 21, 2010 at 2:39 PM

1) We will look back at the 10% unemployment and call those
” THE GOOD OLE DAYS ”
2) Obama HAS bankrupted the USA and we will never recover .
3) It will get worse and Obama will be held hostage by a Republican House and somehow try to blame the conservatives for it all
4) Can we REALLY believe anything that comes out of the White House or the PUPPETS we call the mainstream Media ?
5) This is about as good as the economy is going to get,
GM is the poster child for why NOT to build in America .
We have little or no manufacturing left
6) Billions would be saved by DEPORTING the illegals

THE GOOD NEWS?

THE UNION PENSION PLANS ARE SAFE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ELMO Q on September 21, 2010 at 2:41 PM

Upinak, indeed…..

cmsinaz on September 21, 2010 at 2:41 PM

He’s like a gambler that drops $300 in a slot machine, then brags that he hit a $100 jackpot.

azkenreid on September 21, 2010 at 2:42 PM

ted c on September 21, 2010 at 2:37 PM

I guess she’s running.

gh on September 21, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Recovery Summer ends tomorrow.

With a bang.

GnuBreed on September 21, 2010 at 2:42 PM

IIRC you need at least 150K of new jobs per month to break even because new workers are entering the job market. So yeah the article is correct.

jdun on September 21, 2010 at 2:45 PM

I have a feeling it is up in the teens now. 12 at least. Maybe I am WRONG.. but then I am not jacking with numbers pretending everything is alright either.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:25 PM

Based on anecdotal evidence — that would be me, and most of the people I know — the unemployment rate is much higher than the government claims.

Everything is not all right. Unless you’re a stock-market manipulator, a banker sitting on zillions of smackers you received from Obama’s Stash, a welfare recipient or favored pal of the Osama Obama regime.

MrScribbler on September 21, 2010 at 2:47 PM

OT this just in… Christine switches position, encourages masturbation!

faraway on September 21, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Only downside to rhe Rs taking over after November is then if the economy turns around, Obama will try to claim credit for it and the media will allow it. Guaranteed.

txmomof6 on September 21, 2010 at 2:48 PM

The flatline on job creation has dire implications for the White House if it continues much longer, and all indications are that it will:

For President One Trick Pony to change, he would first have to admit his socialist inspired programs have failed. How likely is that? The Chief Narcissist blaming HIS ideology for failure?

Just get ready for Recession V2.0 brought to you courtesy of Barry, Harry and Nancy.

GarandFan on September 21, 2010 at 2:48 PM

I think the actual unemployment numbers are @ the midteens overall

ConservativePartyNow on September 21, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Recovery Summer ends tomorrow.
With a bang.
GnuBreed on September 21, 2010 at 2:42 PM

Sure but it leads directly into Rejuvenation Fall and then Resurgence Winter.

If those don’t work as well as Biden says they will, PBHO will simply cancel Spring.

Bishop on September 21, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Obama inherited a situation where he could have come out the hero. The economy was well into its plummet when he was sworn in, and it would now be in a full fledged recovery if he had simply done much less. But he couldn’t help himself. he needed the porkulus capital grab for the State. He needed to rip off the Chrysler investors and wantonly destroy perfectly good car dealerships. Then he further scared the crap out of the private sector with the medical and insurance industry takeover law, and the financial law, and possibly cap and tax etc.

He has caused this flatline “recovery”. It’s his fault.

forest on September 21, 2010 at 2:49 PM

Maybe a little OT, but can anyone explain how the Obama admin can claim that the stimulus, which wasn’t passed until February 2010, could possibly be responsible for ending the recession, which we now learn occurred just 3 months later, which probably was before any real money had been released or spent?

Doesn’t the timing show that the recession would have ended in June without ANY of our $787 billion being hijacked?

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

U-6 data is close to 18%. We have more people unemploy than the Great Depression.

jdun on September 21, 2010 at 2:53 PM

I blame George W. Bush Sarah Palin Christine O’Donnell.

Chris of Rights on September 21, 2010 at 2:53 PM

Alinsky failed

faraway on September 21, 2010 at 2:54 PM

Doesn’t the timing show that the recession would have ended in June without ANY of our $787 billion being hijacked?

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

shhhh common sense doesn’t work with dems and libs.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:54 PM

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

Good question. Someone would ask him if we had an independent media.

I guess he gets to have both ways. If he can claim that “tax credit” redistributive transfer payments to people who pay no income tax constitute “tax cuts”, and that real tax cuts need to be “paid for”, why not give porkulus credit for something that apparently happened before it was enacted.

forest on September 21, 2010 at 2:56 PM

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

Correct. One of the biggest flaws in the Keynesian model is that the economy always begins recovery sooner than government can appropriate the money.

Ted Torgerson on September 21, 2010 at 2:57 PM

9.6 my behind. I have a feeling it is up in the teens now. 12 at least. Maybe I am WRONG.. but then I am not jacking with numbers pretending everything is alright either.

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:25 PM

14.2 in my county

VibrioCocci on September 21, 2010 at 2:59 PM

Well, when you factor in Poll Workers for the election, unemployment will definitely go down…right? Everything’s cool man, stay the course.

Youngs98 on September 21, 2010 at 2:59 PM

Based on anecdotal evidence — that would be me, and most of the people I know — the unemployment rate is much higher than the government claims.

MrScribbler on September 21, 2010 at 2:47 PM

Ask a few of the recent Spring graduates and find the nightmare. My nephew just finished law school, only 20% of them had offers at graduation, compared to 80% 2 years before.

barnone on September 21, 2010 at 3:01 PM

All that money, and a year and a half, and what do we have?

Obama has no intentions of changing course. The more dependent on his government, the more votes he’ll have. Allegedly.

capejasmine on September 21, 2010 at 3:01 PM

Ask a few of the recent Spring graduates and find the nightmare. My nephew just finished law school, only 20% of them had offers at graduation, compared to 80% 2 years before.

barnone on September 21, 2010 at 3:01 PM

Yup! And Dems want to add millions of illegals to the mix. We cannot sustain this course of action.

capejasmine on September 21, 2010 at 3:02 PM

The “W” will live forever in their heads, rent free, which makes it interesting on who was wrong and right?

upinak on September 21, 2010 at 2:36 PM

One of my far-Left friends was Blaming Bush just this morning.

Del Dolemonte on September 21, 2010 at 3:06 PM

“We are the change we’ve been waiting for”.

Schadenfreude on September 21, 2010 at 3:08 PM

Alinsky failed

Communism has failed every time it’s been tried, but Elites always believe that when THEY are running things, magic will happen and THIS time, it will work.

What’s that definition of insanity again?

oldleprechaun on September 21, 2010 at 3:14 PM

Re census workers, there is some evidence as well that they are trying to mess up the data by counting election workers: Are Poll Workers Being Used to Inflate Job Totals

slickwillie2001 on September 21, 2010 at 3:14 PM

My exempt job is a classic example of what’s happening. My employer has figured out that as people leave, the ones left over are afraid to fail, so they will do the work of more than one person. Projects used to want full time persons, but now they are settling for 50% people due to budget constraints. And by the math of managers, 50%+50% > 100% — they expect for their 50% to have you much more than 50% of the time. Since exempt people are, under labor law, management, the eight-hour day is, in effect, gone.

So, since they’ve increased productivity in this manner (which is sustainable in the short term but probably not in the long term), they don’t need to hire, so they are waiting to see what happens. When each employee costs so much more due to the new regulation schemes and Obamacare, why hire when you can whip the existing guys a bit more and get the equivalent of several people?

unclesmrgol on September 21, 2010 at 3:20 PM

Maybe a little OT, but can anyone explain how the Obama admin can claim that the stimulus, which wasn’t passed until February 2010, could possibly be responsible for ending the recession, which we now learn occurred just 3 months later, which probably was before any real money had been released or spent?

Doesn’t the timing show that the recession would have ended in June without ANY of our $787 billion being hijacked?

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

It was passed in February 2009

It still suxxors teh bad, tho.

VelvetElvis on September 21, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Alinsky failed
Communism has failed every time it’s been tried, but Elites always believe that when THEY are running things, magic will happen and THIS time, it will work.
What’s that definition of insanity again?
oldleprechaun on September 21, 2010 at 3:14 PM

I think the best confirmation that the oppressive leftists are losing it is that they project it on the right.

But we have a track record of our ideology working, while their’s…..

Well, let just say that’s why they are always trying to rewrite history.

Chip on September 21, 2010 at 3:32 PM

But the “created jobs” can be credited to the White House.

Whereas the lost jobs aren’t Barry’s fault.

That’s the difference.

He was out golfing when they were lost, he’s definitely not to blame.

NoDonkey on September 21, 2010 at 3:37 PM

From Associated Press: Unemployment rises in 27 states last month

Is the American dream dead? You betcha, as long as O-Dumbo is in charge.

GrannyDee on September 21, 2010 at 3:38 PM

The New York Times throws a healthy dash of cold water on an attempt by Democrats and their allies to claim that Barack Obama has created more jobs in the US than George Bush

….how “unexpected”…..

The same liberals going around shouting “the stimulus worked” are the same useful idiots that think massive spending and raising taxes is going to fire up the economy and reduce the debt.

The Obama administration is noting more than a political circus.Just a bunch of clowns running around in circles telling everybody how smart they are why Rome burns…

Baxter Greene on September 21, 2010 at 3:46 PM

That may not matter much anyway, because the extended high rate of unemployment means that voters won’t have much buy-in to the current recovery and are likely to see it as a confirmation of the failure of Obamanomics.

Then again it may. FDR got elected three times under similar conditions. Hopefullly, the electorat is better informed this time.

burt on September 21, 2010 at 5:12 PM

Man…all y’all knocking the Obama man about jobs! How about the lives that were touched? /s

PakviRoti on September 21, 2010 at 8:43 PM

Maybe a little OT, but can anyone explain how the Obama admin can claim that the stimulus, which wasn’t passed until February 2010, could possibly be responsible for ending the recession, which we now learn occurred just 3 months later, which probably was before any real money had been released or spent?

Doesn’t the timing show that the recession would have ended in June without ANY of our $787 billion being hijacked?

LASue on September 21, 2010 at 2:50 PM

The year was 2009 btw, but No porkulus was appropriated by June when the recession ended, and the unemployment went beyond what was forcasted. So the claim that Obama saved us from a depression is false. The Dems blew a trillion $ on a years worth of government jobs with money we don’t have, and hundreds of billions more to pump uncertainty into the market to kill what little recovery is going on.

I don’t think anybody is that stupid. I think stuffing his administration with academics and bureaucrats and NO business people was on purpose.

cartooner on September 21, 2010 at 9:17 PM

The fallacy is including government spending in “GDP”. The gov’t produces nothing. Remove that from the equation and the recession is continuing, as the employment losses indicate. Math is hard…

Empiricist on September 23, 2010 at 1:01 AM