CNN/Time poll puts Angle slightly ahead of Reid

posted at 12:55 pm on September 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The difference between sampling likely and registered voters gets made plain in the latest CNN/Time Magazine poll in Nevada, among other states, where the results of the former show Sharron Angle taking her first slight edge over Harry Reid, 42/41 in a virtual tie.  Time breaks down the internals, but avoids one key observation on the top-line results:

Most striking is how closely fought the Nevada Senate race remains. The poll in that race, which pits the most powerful Democrat in the Senate against former state assembly member Angle — shows that Angle is capturing 42% of likely voters polled to Reid’s 41%, a statistical dead heat. Angle’s standing against Reid comes despite the fact that there’s an official Tea Party candidate on the ballot who might be expected to siphon away votes from her. But Scott Ashjian is backed by only 5% of those polled.

There is a striking gender difference among those polled in Nevada. Women go for Reid by a 51-33 margin, while men back Angle, 49-32. With both parties’ bases mobilized and overwhelmingly backing their nominee, the critical ground will be fought over independent swing voters. Angle wins here, collecting 40% compared to Reid’s 33%. Among self-described moderates, Reid holds sway, 57-23, while Angle has a big margin among conservatives, 72-13. Reid wins among those who attended college (44-40) as well as those making less than $50,000 a year (45-31). But Angle prevails among those with no college experience (44-37). They’re evenly divided among voters making more than $50,000.

The key observation?  Take a look at the numbers from the two sample types in the survey:

  • Registered voters: Reid 42, Angle 34
  • Likely voters: Angle 42, Reid 41

There are two implications from these numbers.  First, and obviously, Angle supporters are more enthused and active.  Harry Reid’s supporters are not all that inclined to show up on Election Day.  That bodes well for Angle as voters make up their minds in the next seven weeks.  But even among all registered voters in a CNN/Time poll, Harry Reid can’t get above 42% support.  He’s a multi-term incumbent who has been in state politics for 40 years, and seven weeks from an election only four in ten voters can muster a commitment to his re-election.

This election is not a referendum on Sharron Angle.  It’s a referendum on Harry Reid, and no matter how much he’d rather put Angle under the microscope, it’s going to continue to be a referendum on Reid and the Democratic agenda.  This race may look tied now, but if Angle continues to put the focus on Reid and doesn’t make any serious errors, the undecideds will either choose Angle or their armchairs on November 2nd.


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Good news rides a fast horse!

Khun Joe on September 16, 2010 at 12:57 PM

Gosh, I do so hope Sharron sends this slug slime to the unemployment line in Nov.!
L

letget on September 16, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Coons’ master’s numbers will slip more as people become more focused on the general election.

WashJeff on September 16, 2010 at 12:58 PM

Most striking is how closely fought the Nevada Senate race remains.

We’re surprised that Harry Reid’s doing that well, too!

Abby Adams on September 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM

I bet if he brought his little pet Coon out from DE he could nail it down….and…don’t forget his base will be all fired up about the new Democrat Party logo.

Lily on September 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM

If Reid wins, CNN/Time just made it a “bigger win”.

CrazyGene on September 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM

I’m ready to wave bye bye to Harry Reid, don’t ruin this Nevada!!!

Cookies Mom on September 16, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Narutoboy hardest hit.

Bishop on September 16, 2010 at 1:01 PM

When the actual votes are counted, this “third party” Democratic plant named Ashjian will not get 5% but end up with 1%, with the rest going to Angle.

Emperor Norton on September 16, 2010 at 1:01 PM

I thought the crazy conservative lady couldn’t win?

sharrukin on September 16, 2010 at 1:01 PM

I like Sharron Angle a lot and have sent her $.
She can do this!

Jenfidel on September 16, 2010 at 1:02 PM

The men/women breakdown just proves you vote for the person who’s gonna vote the right way in the Senate. I’d vote for RuPaul if he/she promised to repeal Obamacare and support tax cuts.

Jim-Rose on September 16, 2010 at 1:03 PM

OT: , but good news. Drudge has it up Hippo McCain’s and ZhaZha Huffington’s books are sales flops. Exxxxxxxx-cellent.

Marcus on September 16, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Looks like another wing nut needs to be taught a lesson.

CurtZHP on September 16, 2010 at 1:05 PM

What will Harry’s pets do without him?

darwin on September 16, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Angle’s standing against Reid comes despite the fact that there’s an official Tea Party candidate on the ballot who might be expected to siphon away votes from her. But Scott Ashjian is backed by only 5% of those polled.

Including Scott Ashjian in the poll is clearly used to skew the poll toward Reid. Nevada Tea Partiers know that Sharron Angle is a Tea Party candidate, and by November won’t back a certain loser like Ashjian over a possible winner like Angle. Early polls including third-party candidates always overestimate their vote share in actual elections, and it’s hard to imagine any Ashjian voters switching to Reid. Figure that Angle will pick up about 3% of Ashjian’s 5%, and she really leads 45-41.

Steve Z on September 16, 2010 at 1:07 PM

I like Sharron Angle a lot and have sent her $.
She can do this!

Jenfidel on September 16, 2010 at 1:02 PM

I am working on her campaign, never been prouder to help.

VegasRick on September 16, 2010 at 1:08 PM

Look at who’s trying very very hard to define who Conservatives are?

Why, Democrats and their minions of course, look at EJ Dionne today, its getting close to the usual suspects moving into the narrative position.

That can’t happen.

Speakup on September 16, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Trust me; the dead will vote in record numbers across the country. She needs way more than 1% to counter that.

michaelo on September 16, 2010 at 1:09 PM

Republican leaders have to decide if they want the tiny fraction of furious voters who have showed up at the primary polls to steer them into the swamp for years ahead. They have a chance to repudiate the worst of the Tea Party crowd and show that they can govern without appealing to the basest political instincts. So far, they have preferred to greedily capitalize on the nuclear energy in the land without considering its destructive effects.

Contemptuous bastards

J_Crater on September 16, 2010 at 1:10 PM

What will Harry’s pets do without him?

darwin on September 16, 2010 at 1:05 PM

Ever see those house of skanks when the pets have taken over. There is pet crap everywhere.

mechkiller_k on September 16, 2010 at 1:11 PM

OT: , but good news. Drudge has it up Hippo McCain’s and ZhaZha Huffington’s books are sales flops. Exxxxxxxx-cellent.

Marcus on September 16, 2010 at 1:03 PM

Really; reviews of McCain’s book are somewhat negative: On the whole, I am simply not a talented enough writer to express how truly horrible this book was…

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2010 at 1:13 PM

..and we want it to be close up until about two weeks before when she will open up an 11-point lead because Reid will bve been caught in a Las Vegas restroom toilet stall with a..

..well, we’ll juts let your imagination go to work on that one.

The War Planner on September 16, 2010 at 1:13 PM

But, but, Angle should fear the Logo

mwbri on September 16, 2010 at 1:13 PM

Reid cries on camera before Oct 20th. Talks about all his hard work and his heart and that the war isn’t lost.

Limerick on September 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

I SO want Reid to lose. C’mon Nevada, don’t let me down. (Angle, do your part too…POUND away on Dingy.)

changer1701 on September 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

So, Harry Reid has a pet Marxist? Who knew?

d1carter on September 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

But, but, Angle should fear the Logo

mwbri on September 16, 2010 at 1:13 PM

..you mean this logo?

The War Planner on September 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

FINISH HIM!

pseudonominus on September 16, 2010 at 1:17 PM

She was on The Factor last night. Did well. She hit Reid hard on the economic hardships, bankruptcies and unemployment in Nevada. He can run but he can’t hide.

a capella on September 16, 2010 at 1:18 PM

Go Angle!

Sekhmet on September 16, 2010 at 1:19 PM

War Planner,

Good link–funny.

Yep, the super surprise major announcement from the DNC that turned out to be unveiling a dopey new logo.

mwbri on September 16, 2010 at 1:20 PM

Coons’ master’s numbers will slip more as people become more focused on the general election.

WashJeff on September 16, 2010 at 12:58 PM

No matter what happens, he will still have His Pet.

antisocial on September 16, 2010 at 1:21 PM

So far, they have preferred to greedily capitalize on the nuclear energy in the land without considering its destructive effects.

This would be the same party that has trouble supporting OD? RIIIIIIGHT! Pull the other one, it has bells on.

BTW……I kinda like that nuclear energy thing.

Fighton03 on September 16, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Now that we have seven weeks, seven weeks to expose and define the disastrous agenda of the left…the % will change.
Record poverty, record unemployment, record gov. spending, for the next several weeks, the people will begin to see.

right2bright on September 16, 2010 at 1:23 PM

Reid cries on camera before Oct 20th. Talks about all his hard work and his heart and that the war isn’t lost.

Limerick on September 16, 2010 at 1:14 PM

oh lord PLEEEEEEZE go there….lmao.

Fighton03 on September 16, 2010 at 1:25 PM

An incumbent polling under 50% at election time is toasted.

tarpon on September 16, 2010 at 1:26 PM

She was on The Factor last night. Did well. She hit Reid hard on the economic hardships, bankruptcies and unemployment in Nevada. He can run but he can’t hide.

a capella on September 16, 2010 at 1:18 PM

Yeah I thought she did really well too. Seemed a lot more comfortable and polished than a few months ago, to me at least. She’ll be fine with more appearances like those.

stldave on September 16, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Reid cries on camera before Oct 20th.

What can that old bag of liberal hate cry, tears of embalming fluid and botox? He would have to spray himself with a hose beforehand just to make it look halfway convincing.

Bishop on September 16, 2010 at 1:27 PM

There are no opponents of O-care or O-Economy in America. Never! No, fellow Democrat members of Congress, I am not scared of losing my seat and neither should you be!

Search for the truth. I tell you things and I always ask you to verify what I say. I told you yesterday that there are no dissatisfied people in America. You can go and visit Nevada. No dissatisfied person there. Mo one at all. There are only supporters of mine and Brack Obama. Everything is okay.

By Obama, I think my defeat is very unlikely. Any talk of my defeat is merely a prattle. The fact is that as soon as my opponents reach Nevada’s borders, we besiege them and slaughter them. Wherever my opponents go in Nevada they will find themselves encircled by millions of my supporters. The Tea Partiers will be burnt. We are going to tackle them. We are going to hit them with shoes! My opponents are committing suicide by the thousands once they enter Nevada. Be assured, My Senate seat is safe, protected.

Jeckle on September 16, 2010 at 1:28 PM

and again, please be prepared GOP. the SHENANIGANS in NV will make your head spin. If NRSC is forgoing ad runs in DE, which I think is teh stoopid, b/c they think they have NV, they need to TRIPLE their ATTY FEES and POLLING MONITOR BUDGETS!

Everyone should have cameras on their person, and Obots WILL be out in FULL FORCE

Are the GOP prepared to FIGHT to maintain the INTEGRITY (Alert Rove, lol) of the election in NV?

They better be.

ginaswo on September 16, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Don’t to forget to ADD the MYSTERIOUS 6-11 % that all of the polls have deducted from the TEA PARTY candidates .
Gosh if Harry loses could BOTOX LADY be next ?
I fear some of the elderly might not could survive a shock like that …………….

ELMO Q on September 16, 2010 at 1:29 PM

“CNN/Time poll”

Translation: Reid is six to nine points behind. Perhaps even more. I’d like more info on the sample. I’ll wager they oversampled liberal extremists 2:1.

dogsoldier on September 16, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Any incumbent who is below 50% among likely voters at this point is very likely to lose.

Done That on September 16, 2010 at 1:36 PM

Trust me; the dead will vote in record numbers across the country. She needs way more than 1% to counter that.

michaelo on September 16, 2010 at 1:09 PM

For sure…. Every corpse, illegal, dog and cat will be voting this November.

While the conservatives have been playing by the rules, the Soros/Obama/Progressives have been rigging the game.

CrazyGene on September 16, 2010 at 1:39 PM

Angle should do two things on economics.

First, huddle with tax-policy gurus and get the straight dope on the Bush tax-rate reductions. She needs to be Reid over the head with tax-rate reductions AND counterpunch the fricking canard that the rate reductions caused the housing and financial crisis.

Second, and McCain was too stupid to pull this off, huddle with housing and lending gurus and get the straight dope on the cause of the housing bubble and related financial crisis. Foreclosures are increasing, and Nevada is one of the worst areas in the country. She needs to clearly explain Reid’s role–whatever it was–during the 2000s in fueling the housing bubble through Fannie and Freddie. It would be sweet to find out any ways that Reid killed efforts to reform Fannie and Freddie.

Don’t just put Reid’s feet to the fire. Prove that voting for Reid will be a continuation of the Democratic housing policies that created much of the mess in the economy that we see today.

BuckeyeSam on September 16, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Yep, the super surprise major announcement from the DNC that turned out to be unveiling a dopey new logo.

mwbri on September 16, 2010 at 1:20 PM

..beyond desperation, those folks. Nicht Wahr?

The War Planner on September 16, 2010 at 1:47 PM

An incumbent polling under 50% at election time is toasted.

tarpon on September 16, 2010 at 1:26 PM

Yep. Don’t think this race will be even close. Angle by 8 on election night.

Norwegian on September 16, 2010 at 1:49 PM

About those likely voter turnout guesstimates: Ace linked this write up by Barone. Republicans are turning out to vote like never before, and Democrats are finding that they have something better to do on election days. One reason I’m not giving up on DE – experts said 35k Republicans would vote, but 57k actually showed up.

forest on September 16, 2010 at 1:54 PM

Ideal Nov. night:

Pelosi loses hammer.

Reid, Boxer, Crist and Blanche Lincoln lose.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 2:02 PM

Funny, Dems spending more on anti-Obamacare ads than for it.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 2:07 PM

Narutoboy hardest hit.
Bishop on September 16, 2010 at 1:01 PM

What’s the point of this deliberate flame?

Angle’s not a strong candidate ( largely due to inexperience rather that incompetence or personality defects). But the difference is, she has a decent shot at winning, and probably will. Although it will be close.

Vyce on September 16, 2010 at 2:32 PM

Is this the state in which a Democratic operative started a “tea party” group to subvert conservatives?

burt on September 16, 2010 at 2:51 PM

Harry’s gonna get Dascholed! hahaha

That’s what happens when you say America has lost a war to a bunch of third world, 7th century, women-beating cavemen who worship a child molester.

Tony737 on September 16, 2010 at 2:58 PM

Imagine what the numbers would look like if Angle were good candidate.

ncconservative on September 16, 2010 at 3:05 PM

I don’t pet snakes.

Go, Angle!!!

GrannyDee on September 16, 2010 at 3:16 PM

This race may look tied now, but if Angle continues to put the focus on Reid and doesn’t make any serious errors, the undecideds will either choose Angle or their armchairs on November 2nd.

hehe—then Harry can join Rory “Dont Call Me Reid” Reid on the couch with Cousin Pookie who didn’t bother getting his butt off of it to go out and vote. Someone here on HotAir said that the GOV race there is the top of the ticket race and that people really aren’t enthused about Rory Not Reid one bit. This poll makes me think that, if given a choice, that the voters of Nevada will flush both of them in one fell swoop.

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:17 PM

Angle is unelectable.

—AllahPundit—

mwdiver on September 16, 2010 at 3:18 PM

experts said 35k Republicans would vote, but 57k actually showed up.

forest on September 16, 2010 at 1:54 PM

quick, Ed! Is that 22K more, or 19K more? either way, that’s a whole lotta elephants.

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:18 PM

No more pets for Reid.

Dhuka on September 16, 2010 at 4:16 PM

CNN/Time poll”

Translation: Reid is six to nine points behind. Perhaps even more. I’d like more info on the sample. I’ll wager they oversampled liberal extremists 2:1.

dogsoldier on September 16, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Rasmussen also has them at a tie.

Election 2010: Nevada Senate
Nevada Senate: Reid (D) 48%, Angle (R) 48%
Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The Nevada Senate race remains a cliffhanger.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada, with leaners included, finds Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle tied at 48% apiece. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Jimbo3 on September 16, 2010 at 4:55 PM

I like Sharron Angle a lot and have sent her $.
She can do this!

Jenfidel on September 16, 2010 at 1:02 PM

She’s too extreme for me, just like O’Donnell. I think Reid will pull it out in the end.

Jimbo3 on September 16, 2010 at 4:58 PM

Hey! I know what Harry needs to do to regain his lead . . .

He need to go on the attack, and call Sharon a bunch of filthy names, and accuse her unfairly of terrible things, and lie like hell……

Oh,…. yeah…..

he already tried that….

Sorry, Harry.

seanrobins on September 16, 2010 at 5:27 PM

Just wait until Reid’s master/pet relationship with Coons takes hold.

applebutter on September 16, 2010 at 7:31 PM

Too bad O’Reilly didn’t ask Angle “What do you think is your biggest drawback?” last night.

She could have responded “People think I look a little like Nancy Pelosi.”

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on September 16, 2010 at 10:21 PM

The turnout of Democratic primary voters may have been limited by the difficulty of getting the graveyard vote out for a primary.

njcommuter on September 17, 2010 at 12:19 AM