CBS poll puts Obama at 45% job approval

posted at 3:36 pm on September 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

CBS finds that Barack Obama’s job approval numbers are “mixed,” but that has more to do with the usual CBS sampling follies than it does with any actual rebound in Obama’s numbers.  Obama gets a 45/47 in their latest survey of registered voters, but does worse on the issues, especially the issue that concerns Americans most as the midterm elections approach:

Americans have mixed feelings about President Obama’s job performance, a new CBS News/ New York Times pollshows, with 45 percent saying they approve and 47 percent saying they disapprove. However, disapproval does not mean disappointment — most Americans say that Mr. Obama’s performance in office is what they expected.

Yet on the issue of the economy, which Americans perceive as the top problem facing the country, the president receives wider criticism. Mr. Obama’s approval rating on the economy stands at just 41 percent. Another 51 percent of Americans disapprove.

Six in 10 Americans think Mr. Obama has not made progress fixing the economy, and a majority (53 percent) thinks he does not have a clear plan for creating jobs.

They also have this puzzling statistic:

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 10-14.

Let’s review the sample.  The poll uses both general population and registered voter screening.  Among the general population,the CBS sample found a partisan split of 8.5 points favoring Democrats — which they promptly fixed by making the gap larger, to almost 10 p0ints.  Among registered voters, they found a gap of 7.9 points, which they addressed by subtracting enough Democrats and independents to get it to a 6.7 point gap:

Gen Unw Upct Wei WPct
Rep 261 26.4% 248 25.1%
Dem 346 34.9% 345 34.8%
Ind 383 38.7% 397 40.1%
990 990
Reg
Rep 247 28.0% 224 28.8%
Dem 316 35.9% 276 35.5%
Ind 318 36.1% 277 35.6%
881 777
Gen Unw Upct Wei WPct
Rep 261 26.4% 248 25.1%
Dem 346 34.9% 345 34.8%
Ind 383 38.7% 397 40.1%
990 990
Reg
Rep 247 28.0% 224 28.8%
Dem 316 35.9% 276 35.5%
Ind 318 36.1% 277 35.6%
881 777

Bear in mind that Barack Obama won the national popular vote by seven points in 2008, at the peak of Democratic Party popularity. The most recent Gallup survey shows Democrats with a three-point national registration advantage, and that’s only when leaners are included. These sample splits are absurd as anything CBS has produced thus far in the Obama era.

Not that it helps.  Republicans still win the generic Congressional ballot question, 40/38, even with the handicap CBS gives the Democrats.  Among independents, that gap opens to nine points for Republicans, 35/26, with a third of independents still unsure of how they’ll vote.

On Obama himself, the numbers look even worse.  As noted by CBS, the overall numbers on the economy are 41/51.  However, 60% say he has made no progress in fixing the economy, not exactly a vote of confidence in Democratic leadership seven weeks prior to the midterms.  Only 38% believes he has a clear plan for job creation, while 53% say he doesn’t.  Only 30% think the $787 billion stimulus plan improved the economy, with 20% thinking it made things worse and 46% saying it had no impact at all.  ObamaCare still has double-digit opposition, 49/37.

One last question: why is CBS not using a likely-voter screen, especially on the generic Congressional ballot?  Maybe they can’t tweak a sample that specific.


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Barry doesn’t even get 45% approval in his own household

phreshone on September 16, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Plouffe will replace Axelrod.

It’s all in the image. The message is fine.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:38 PM

How can he still be as high as 45%?

Is drug use up across the country?

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:39 PM

No doubt he is being driven to such stratospheric heights by the new logo design.

Lily on September 16, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Is this before or after the new logo?

Ronnie on September 16, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Uh, yeah, he sucks on all the major issues all right, but hey, overall I’d say he’s doin’ a pretty fair job.

cartooner on September 16, 2010 at 3:40 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 10-14.

Are so many Americans masochists?

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Dang, I thought I was kidding…

By SAM HANANEL, Associated Press Writer Sam Hananel, Associated Press Writer – Thu Sep 16, 3:27 am ET

WASHINGTON – The rate of illegal drug use rose last year to the highest level in nearly a decade, fueled by a sharp increase in marijuana use and a surge in ecstasy and methamphetamine abuse, the government reported Wednesday.

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

No doubt he is being driven to such stratospheric heights by the new logo design.

Lily on September 16, 2010 at 3:40 PM

They ripped off the © symbol!

cartooner on September 16, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected

This is like saying that husbands are generally unhappy with the direction of their marriages and that over half of them say that it is going just about how they expected it to go after less than two years.

I’d say this ends in divorce.

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Please, please, please come back to Missouri to do another fundraiser for Robin Carnahan.

stldave on September 16, 2010 at 3:44 PM

All I had to see in the subject title was “CBS Poll…”

WhoU4 on September 16, 2010 at 3:44 PM

CBS poll puts Obama at 45% job approval

They’ll skew the data and continue to oversample Democrats… ANYTHING to keep that disapproval number OUT OF THE 30s…

Khun Joe on September 16, 2010 at 3:44 PM

the floor of his polls are propped up as falsely as the promises of grandeur were on his expectations.

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Go poll the good folks at the unemployment office. No, not the ones behinds the desk…the ones waiting in line.

Electrongod on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Down to 45 percent. That means for the last six months Zero has probably dropped a good six points from 45 percent down to 45 percent. Plus, if things get any worse for Obama then CBS is predicting his approval could plummet even further to 45 percent.

viking01 on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected

Well, I would be among those 63%. It’s really a meaningless question because it depends on what each person “expected” from the O. Could be good, bad, or ugly.

jwolf on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

See….BS!!

PappyD61 on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

There’s a cheech and chong remake coming soon….

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Forget Scooter. I want to see a poll of FLOTUS since we now know how she feels about her position.

a capella on September 16, 2010 at 3:47 PM

From the CBS article:

…. with 45 percent saying they approve and 47 percent saying they disapprove. However, disapproval does not mean disappointment — most Americans say that Mr. Obama’s performance in office is what they expected.

Yeah, I would have to agree with that. He’s doing pretty much everything that I expected an America-hating Marxist to do.

UltimateBob on September 16, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Go poll the good folks at the unemployment office. No, not the ones behinds the desk…the ones waiting in line.

Electrongod on September 16, 2010 at 3:46 PM

I wonder if the unemployment line is as long as the soup line these days? I betcha the limbo line or the wagyu beef lines are going to be pretty long up at the WH tonight or tomorrow night because they’re partyin’ like it’s 1999!!

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:50 PM

RCP says it is likelies, hmm. But what’s with the 22% that are still undecided? Other likely voter polls only have that as between 4 and 15%. And the GOP does significantly better in those polls, indicating that CBS is leaving off a big chunk that are breaking hard towards Republicans.

theperfecteconomist on September 16, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Most want new blood in Congress.

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected

Obama is about what I expected and I am bitterly disappointed about the outcome.

JonPrichard on September 16, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Translation:

Obama at 38% Approval.

portlandon on September 16, 2010 at 3:53 PM

can we put this oversampled translation against W’s sampled approval numbers.
Wouldn’t that mid thirties number he recorded get an extra 7 points too? To about 40?

joeindc44 on September 16, 2010 at 3:54 PM

How can he still be as high as 45%?

Is drug use up across the country?

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:39 PM

13% – black population
10% – govt workers
10% – union workers
12% – general imbeciles

angryed on September 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Honestly, I think there is a decent chance that he doesn’t run in 2012…

joepub on September 16, 2010 at 3:59 PM

with 45 percent saying they approve and 47 percent saying they disapprove. However, disapproval does not mean disappointment — most Americans say that Mr. Obama’s performance in office is what they expected.

That is gold. Yeah, maybe some true believers are getting what they expected but also us rightwingers are getting what we expected too.

joeindc44 on September 16, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Well, he IS doing EXACTLY what I expected him to do: ruin us all.

Doesn’t mean I approve of it…

karl9000 on September 16, 2010 at 4:00 PM

“The job is H E double hockey sticks isn’t Barry”—Love Michelle.

Caper29 on September 16, 2010 at 4:00 PM

63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected

They expected suckage and they got it!

Give the people what they want.

NoDonkey on September 16, 2010 at 4:01 PM

They ripped off the © symbol!

cartooner on September 16, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Actually, they stole it from Ⓡ.

Greek Fire on September 16, 2010 at 4:03 PM

13% – black population
10% – govt workers
10% – union workers
12% – general imbeciles

angryed on September 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM

1% Muslims
5% elitist plantation owners, not yet figured out by the other looters/moochers, aka, modern day slaves

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 4:03 PM

45% = Proof that a large number of idiots still exists in the American population.
The 45% figure is also an indicator that there are still a large number of people out there who cannot admit they were wrong.

Badger40 on September 16, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Honestly, I think there is a decent chance that he doesn’t run in 2012…

joepub on September 16, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Since when does golf require running?

Not like he has to hurry to make tee times.

NoDonkey on September 16, 2010 at 4:05 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected,

His performance is what I expected and I’m unhappy, so I don’t understand the puzzlement.

Kafir on September 16, 2010 at 4:06 PM

See ya in `12, Kick-Ass.

ThePrez on September 16, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 10-14.

Are so many Americans masochists?

Not necessarily. I expected a disaster, and so far Giggles’ performance in offics is about what I expected.

crazy_legs on September 16, 2010 at 4:07 PM

I hope his poll numbers, phoney they may be, stay in the 40s. That should keep Hillary! out in 2012.

Should they drop into the 30s, though…

kakypat on September 16, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Propaganda poll, nothing more. The only meaningful poll will come on a tuesday in November.

dogsoldier on September 16, 2010 at 4:08 PM

kakypat on September 16, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Just have to remind people of the last guy they tried to sell us as “brilliant” and how that worked out.

Hillary is a paler, shorter Obama with all the same familiar flaws and the same miniature skill set.

NoDonkey on September 16, 2010 at 4:14 PM

He’s under water on almost every issue, yet his job approval is high? I cry FOUL on this. CBS is obviously skewing, tainting, shilling, and lying here.

Amazing how they seem to feel that a vast majority of Americans are stupid. Think again CBS!!!

capejasmine on September 16, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Just for my amusement I’d like to see a group picture of the liberal slugs that are still enamored by this dolt.

rplat on September 16, 2010 at 4:15 PM

can we put this oversampled translation against W’s sampled approval numbers.

Wouldn’t that mid thirties number he recorded get an extra 7 points too? To about 40?

joeindc44 on September 16, 2010 at 3:54 PM

Most definitely-some of the “polls” done while Chimpy was President over-sampled Democrats by 14% to 19%. And C-BS led the way.

Del Dolemonte on September 16, 2010 at 4:18 PM

Just for my amusement I’d like to see a group picture of the liberal slugs that are still enamored by this dolt.

rplat on September 16, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Several of them post here.

Del Dolemonte on September 16, 2010 at 4:19 PM

O/T. I see Christie has been appointed to a panel by Scooter.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9I95GG80.htm

Perhaps coincidently, Christie has now come out in support of the NJ Transit Authority’s firing of the Koran burner.

a capella on September 16, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Amazingly high considering all that is and isn’t going on. What would it take to get his ratings to go in the 30s?

Is the public blaming everything on Congress and none on Obama?

albill on September 16, 2010 at 4:20 PM

I’d say this ends in divorce.

ted c on September 16, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Yes, and the complaint will be filed in early November, 2012, with the final decree officially entered in January, 2013. And what a happy day that will be for the complainant (a/k/a “We the People”).

AZCoyote on September 16, 2010 at 4:21 PM

I expected Obama to spend us into oblivion with nothing to show for it . So I guess he’s performed about as I expected.

LASue on September 16, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Since when does golf require running?

When the other three guys in the foursome get zapped by lightning?

karl9000 on September 16, 2010 at 4:22 PM

One last question: why is CBS not using a likely-voter screen, especially on the generic Congressional ballot?

I would bet because that skews the deal even farther as so many more Dems, percentage-wise, are not voting this election.
Burns it does.

Veeshir on September 16, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Just for my amusement I’d like to see a group picture of the liberal slugs that are still enamored by this dolt.

rplat on September 16, 2010 at 4:15 PM

I was thinking of linking to a pic of the Beverly Hillbillys but that would be an insult to hillbillys everywhere.

And hillbillys have more sense.

Lily on September 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Unfortunately, it looks like being the first black gives him around a 40% floor – 40% of the people will follow him into He11 if need be. It means beating him is going to require near perfection because there is little margin for error.

The first anything – black, catholic, woman, etc., is going to have a high floor.

TheBigOldDog on September 16, 2010 at 4:23 PM

Are so many Americans masochists?

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

He’s doing exactly what I expected and I think he’s horrible. Living up to expectations doesn’t mean that’s a good thing for him.

Kelligan on September 16, 2010 at 4:24 PM

Is drug use up across the country?

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:39 PM

I did hear on a top of the hour news break that drug use is indeed up – mostly Mary Jane usage, powder cocaine hardest hit.

TheVer on September 16, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Just for my amusement I’d like to see a group picture of the liberal slugs that are still enamored by this dolt.

rplat on September 16, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Here you go.

VibrioCocci on September 16, 2010 at 4:32 PM

Are so many Americans masochists?

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

I don’t know, his performance is exactly as I expected. Ok, maybe a little worse, but not much.

mr.blacksheep on September 16, 2010 at 4:48 PM

Well, it’s not all that different from what I expected, anyway.

Bob's Kid on September 16, 2010 at 4:49 PM

When did the CBS/New York Times Poll ever have any credibilty except as a liberal propaganda tool? They are transparent in their total regard for the truth. I used to line the cat’s litterbox with the Times and even the cat wouldn’t piss on Sulzberger’s rag of a newspaper.

volsense on September 16, 2010 at 4:51 PM

Hillary is a paler, shorter Obama with all the same familiar flaws and the same miniature skill set.

NoDonkey on September 16, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Hey, c’mon. Didn’t you hear how she single-handedly (maybe Chelsea helped a bit) took out all those Bosnian snipers and guys with RPG’s and nukes? Killed them all, she did, with her bare hands (ok, and a dessert fork). But she nobly gave her medals (Purple Cross, Medal of Honor, Olympic Gold in Ear-Wax Flicking, among others) to the poor and downtrodden.

mr.blacksheep on September 16, 2010 at 4:55 PM

see-BS, where the BS never stops.

tarpon on September 16, 2010 at 4:55 PM

13% – black population
10% – govt workers
10% – union workers
12% – general imbeciles

angryed on September 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Yep. Re the general imbeciles, the first question should have been ‘who is the president of the United States?’
That would have shaken out about half the imbeciles.

There are also a few percent in the 45% who will not say that they disapprove of a black president on the phone to a stranger. They are afraid of being called racist. That few percent might vote differently in the privacy of the voting booth.

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2010 at 5:02 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 10-14.

In other words, even supporters expected very little from this affirmative-action POS.

BuckeyeSam on September 16, 2010 at 5:04 PM

Is drug use up across the country?

mankai on September 16, 2010 at 3:39 PM

As far as I can tell – across the country, across the board.

The elite are having a good chuckle…they never imagined that the plebes would be self-administering Soma.

Dark-Star on September 16, 2010 at 5:07 PM

What is “puzzling” about “63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected?” I think his level of venal, dishonest incompetence is about at the level I expected.

burt on September 16, 2010 at 5:15 PM

How can he still be as high as 45%?

Easy. It’s a CBS poll. They consistently over-sample Dems by 10%. If the poll were 40/40/20 (D/R/I), it would easily be a 30% approval.

slug on September 16, 2010 at 5:30 PM

Speaking as a racist tea partier, Obama’s performance is about as expected.

exdeadhead on September 16, 2010 at 5:39 PM

Honestly, I think there is a decent chance that he doesn’t run in 2012…

joepub on September 16, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Honestly, I think there is a decent chance that he wins in 2012. I lived through all of the elections in the thirties and forties except the first one.

burt on September 16, 2010 at 5:40 PM

Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 10-14.

Are so many Americans masochists?

Schadenfreude on September 16, 2010 at 3:41 PM

What was it that Bush called it? The soft bigotry of low expectations?

malclave on September 16, 2010 at 5:41 PM

His performance is what I expected as well. That’s why I hoped he would fail.

Kissmygrits on September 16, 2010 at 5:46 PM

That picture of O-loser reminds me of how my dog tips his head when I say “Come on, let’s go pottie.”

Except my dog is cuter and much smarter. At least he doesn’t s**t where he eats.

GrannyDee on September 16, 2010 at 6:13 PM

Honestly, I think there is a decent chance that he doesn’t run in 2012…

joepub on September 16, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Yes, and it will be because of M’chell. Doing the job of president even as poorly as he does has to be doubly exhausting with a high-maintenance harridan wife.

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2010 at 6:42 PM

The corrupt news media has so much to lose if the Dems lose.
Let’s fire the bastards!

Travis1 on September 16, 2010 at 9:37 PM

Only a pathetically liberal group like “See B.S.” would try to pawn off a fairy tale like “45% approval” for the big 0.

landlines on September 16, 2010 at 11:05 PM

My turn:
Although Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy, and 63 percent say Mr. Obama’s performance in office has been about what they expected.

But geez, he’s black, isn’t that what matters?

leftnomore on September 17, 2010 at 4:38 AM

Hillary is a paler, shorter Obama with all the same familiar flaws and the same miniature skill set.

NoDonkey on September 16, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Yup. No way I want her & that pig Clinton in the WH again.
What would they steal next?
They can have the new Oval Office rug, though.

Badger40 on September 17, 2010 at 9:13 AM