AP: Republicans up 10 in generic Congressional ballot

posted at 2:15 pm on September 16, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Now that the last of the primaries have concluded, pollsters have rushed to get their surveys out at the opening of the general-election season.  So far, the results look mostly promising for the GOP.  Although Gallup’s poll numbers on the Congressional election look like a bad ride at Six Flags, the rest of the national pollsters have shown a steady momentum for Republicans in the generic ballot question.  The new Associated Press poll shows likely voters giving the GOP a ten-point lead, 53/43, on the question, and see little hope for a Democratic rebound:

Tilted toward the GOP from the start of the year, the political environment has grown even more favorable for Republicans and rockier for President Barack Obama and his Democrats over the long primary season that just ended with a bang.

With November’s matchups set and the general election campaign beginning in earnest Wednesday, an Associated Press-GfK poll found that more Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction than did before the nomination contests got under way in February. Also, more now disapprove of the job Obama is doing. And more now want to see Republicans in control of Congress rather than the Democrats who now run the House and Senate.

The country’s pessimism benefits the out-of-power GOP, which clearly has enthusiasm on its side. Far more people voted this year in Republicans primaries than in Democratic contests, and the antiestablishment tea party coalition has energized the GOP even as it has sprung a series of primary surprises.

Turnouts in primaries may end up challenging the likely-voter models used by pollsters in this cycle.  Even the GOP got surprised in Delaware, for instance:

Indeed, Republicans expected turnout of 30,000 to 40,000 in Delaware on Tuesday. Some 57,582 people showed up to vote as tea party-backed Christine O’Donnell upset moderate Rep. Mike Castle for the Senate GOP nomination. By most accounts, the outcome diminished Republican chances of winning former Vice President Joe Biden’s seat. But Republicans got their preferred candidate in New Hampshire as former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte fended off tea party-supported Ovide Lamontagne by a razor-thin margin.

We saw this throughout the primary season.  In Missouri, despite neither party having a competitive primary for the US Senate, Republicans drew twice as many voters to the polls as Democrats for that primary.  In Wisconsin on Tuesday, Republican turnout dwarfed that of Democrats in a state Barack Obama easily won in 2008.  New Hampshire’s famously independent voters turned out in much larger numbers for the GOP as well.  That gives a concrete example of the enthusiasm gap in this year’s cycle.

And it matters.  In the AP survey, a registered voter sample shows an even split on the generic Congressional ballot, 47/47.  Without leaners, the GOP holds a two-point edge, 44/42.  But when leaners are excluded from the likely-voter sample, that ten-point gap expands to 51/39.

The news continues to worsen for Obama.  He gets a 42/58 on the economy, a 38/61 on the budget deficit, 40/59 on immigration, , and 42/58 on unemployment.  Republicans outscore Democrats on trust on the economy (46/41), national security (54/37), federal deficit (47/40), taxes (48/42), and job creation (45/42).  And this is in a sample with a 44/40 split for Democrats, with leaners; without leaners, it’s 31/25 for Democrats.  If they can’t get better numbers than this from a six-point lead in the base sample, the Democrats are heading for the woodshed in less than seven weeks.


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But, but, the GOP is committing suicide!! /Moron at the Daily Beast

Norwegian on September 16, 2010 at 2:18 PM

O’Donnell will win DE. And we will take the NY Senate seat! This is the beginning. Mr Rove and Conservative bloggers need to know that there’s room on the bandwagon and you are welcome. But know that it’s OUR bandwagon! Not blue-blood trust fund babies from DC who call themselves Republicans! :)

WhatsRight on September 16, 2010 at 2:19 PM

And with the enthusiasm gap between the two parties, the Dems are in for a long night on November 2. I’ll need to DVR the entire MSDNC schedule.

Doughboy on September 16, 2010 at 2:21 PM

[Obama] gets a 42/58 on the economy

You mean 42% of the population still approves his handling of the economy?! How bad would it have to get for these people to turn against him?

jwolf on September 16, 2010 at 2:27 PM

Im Missouri, the Prop C ballot initiative really drove a lot of turnout. Of course, that really reinforces your point. The Democrat base could have easily turned out to knock that Prop down if were thrilled about the healthcare legislation, but they didn’t. The passion is all on our side.

stldave on September 16, 2010 at 2:27 PM

I’ve got to put in my order for extra butter popcorn and drinks for November 2nd, I don’t want to miss this!!!

Cookies Mom on September 16, 2010 at 2:29 PM

And we will take the NY Senate seat!

WhatsRight on September 16, 2010 at 2:19 PM

If Malpass would’ve won, maybe it could’ve been competitive. DioGuardi is somewhat of a perennial candidate. Also, he’s pro-life in probably the most pro-choice state of the union. No dice. Which is too bad because Gillibrand is very low class, caused the housing crisis and is a joke compared to Moynihan or Schumer.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 16, 2010 at 2:31 PM

Republican leaders have to decide if they want the tiny fraction of furious voters who have showed up at the primary polls to steer them into the swamp for years ahead. They have a chance to repudiate the worst of the Tea Party crowd and show that they can govern without appealing to the basest political instincts. So far, they have preferred to greedily capitalize on the nuclear energy in the land without considering its destructive effects.

Yeah, those same folks at the New York Times who have been telling us for years that every vote must be counted at least once, if not more, even dead voters. The same folks who stand idly by while the DOJ turns a blind eye to Section 8 of the Motor Voter law, to civil rights violations to people of non-color. And now they are fearful of angry voters; that their votes should not shape the future. Get that .. voters shouldn’t decide where the Republican Party goes .. where the country goes … what a bunch of f’ing Communists. NUTS !! I say.

J_Crater on September 16, 2010 at 2:31 PM

Overall turnout this primary season: Democratic Turnout for Primaries Lowest in 80 years

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2010 at 2:32 PM

Republicans up 10 in generic Congressional ballot

Don’t worry, the RNC Ruling Class hasn’t weighed in yet. There’s plenty of time to Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory…

Bruno Strozek on September 16, 2010 at 2:33 PM

Election Day 11/2/10 is also the Day of the Dead. Coincidence or harbinger for Dems?

BHO Jonestown on September 16, 2010 at 2:34 PM

I’ve got to put in my order for extra butter popcorn and drinks for November 2nd, I don’t want to miss this!!!

Cookies Mom on September 16, 2010 at 2:29 PM

I’m stocking up on Val-U-Rite liquor, popcorn and pudding. I hope HA stocks up on bandwidth and some good lubricant for Humpbot.

GnuBreed on September 16, 2010 at 2:35 PM

Here’s hoping the Democrats (trolls) stay in on NO-vember 2nd…

After all, its OUR “party”… THEY can cry if they want to…

Khun Joe on September 16, 2010 at 2:38 PM

Meh. I don’t think these “generic ballots” tell us a whole lot.

As someone once said, “All politics is local.”

UltimateBob on September 16, 2010 at 2:39 PM

I don’t think we should get too overconfident.

Remember, they have Harry the Coons Whisperer Reid…and… and a spiffy new logo.

Lily on September 16, 2010 at 2:39 PM

You and Ace both, GnuBreed. Since I stopped drinking (doctor’s orders), I’ll have to stick with Turkey Hill peach tea, popcorn and pudding. And bacon. Don’t forget the bacon.

either orr on September 16, 2010 at 2:39 PM

O/T Megan is SMOKIN’ on FOX today! Shouldn’t be alloed to look that good.

KCB on September 16, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Indeed, Republicans expected turnout of 30,000 to 40,000 in Delaware on Tuesday. Some 57,582 people showed up to vote as tea party-backed Christine O’Donnell upset moderate Rep. Mike Castle for the Senate GOP nomination.

This seems to undermine the notion that a “tiny fraction of furious voters,” is somehow thwarting the will of the people.

BlueCollarAstronaut on September 16, 2010 at 2:43 PM

I can still remember standing in line to vote in the first presidential election that I was eligible for – Reagan in 1980. People were furious with Jimmy Carter, and they turned out in DROVES to vote him out of office.

I’ve NEVER seen anything like this in my life. I hope they have EMT’s with paddles stationed at every Democratic stronghold and MSM outlet, because they’re gonna need it….

(And look for the spin to be how the Tea Party “lost” if Delaware goes to the Dems – that’s the only thing the media is going to have to hold onto)

TeresainFortWorth on September 16, 2010 at 2:45 PM

I’m stocking up on Val-U-Rite liquor, popcorn and pudding. I hope HA stocks up on bandwidth and some good lubricant for Humpbot.

GnuBreed on September 16, 2010 at 2:35 PM

That is my biggest concern, that I won’t be able to get onto HA, it was a nightmare the night Brown was elected

Cookies Mom on September 16, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Axelrod to be gone in a Plouffe …

Sneed hears rumbles White House senior adviser David Axelrod will be replaced by David Plouffe, President Obama’s former campaign manager, after the midterm elections, which are expected to be a Dem disaster.

J_Crater on September 16, 2010 at 2:48 PM

Not bad for a regional party limited to the South and Mountain West states.

Kafir on September 16, 2010 at 2:55 PM

Axelrod is being replaced by Obama’s campaign manager?

Doesn’t this point to the belief that it’s not his policies but their marketing that are the issue? (Their view of the issue, that is.)

How tone-deaf are these people??

Scott H on September 16, 2010 at 3:03 PM

“If they can’t get better numbers than this from a six-point lead in the base sample, the Democrats are heading for the woodshed in less than seven weeks.”

Couldn’t happen to a more deserving group of morons.

kscheuller on September 16, 2010 at 3:17 PM

Today Battleground says people think the Republicans will take both houses of congress by nine points … hmm, voters know something Castle doesn’t?

tarpon on September 16, 2010 at 3:31 PM

By most accounts, the outcome diminished Republican chances of winning former Vice President Joe Biden’s seat.

OUCH!An AP Freudian slip?

cartooner on September 16, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Axelrod is being replaced by Obama’s campaign manager?

Doesn’t this point to the belief that it’s not his policies but their marketing that are the issue? (Their view of the issue, that is.)

How tone-deaf are these people??

Scott H on September 16, 2010 at 3:03 PM

Who cares? Just hand them another plastic bag to put over their heads and watch them commit political suicide…

Works for me…

I haven’t had this much fun since the 1980 General Election… Mmm mmm mmm…

Khun Joe on September 16, 2010 at 3:48 PM

I still have to wonder what sort of drooling morons actually support Democrats and Obama? I mean, I know about the parasites, union thugs, anti-American leftists, and other assorted forms of human detritus, but surely there aren’t that many of them – there are some normal people in there to make the numbers as strong as they are (I know they are weak, but still a significant portion of the public support them). WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

Adjoran on September 16, 2010 at 3:48 PM

OUCH!An AP Freudian slip?

cartooner on September 16, 2010 at 3:37 PM

Heh, good catch. I missed it when I read it.

jwolf on September 16, 2010 at 3:49 PM

In related news:

Cook moves Connecticut to “tossup.”

acasilaco on September 16, 2010 at 4:11 PM

Re staff changes, as weakened as Bammie is, he may have trouble bringing in new people. Two years ago, he could have anyone in the country he wanted, now not so much. Look for shuffles rather than ins and outs.

slickwillie2001 on September 16, 2010 at 4:50 PM