Reuters has him up 40/26/21 over Crist and Meek, respectively, while Rasmussen has it 41/30/23. Last night’s Fox News poll broke 43/27/21, and a Susquehana poll taken a few days ago put it at 43/29/23. Which, I guess, makes the Democratic primary last month in Florida not unlike the GOP primary last night in Delaware. By voting for Jeff Greene over Meek, Democrats would have all but guaranteed mass defections to Crist in the general election, giving them a real chance to hold the seat. (Reuters has a two-man Rubio/Crist race at 46/45.) As it is, they stuck with the “true Democrat.” And now here we are.
Eighty percent (80%) of Rubio voters now say they are certain how they will vote in November, as do 69% of Meek’s supporters, up from 48% in the previous survey. Only 45% of Crist’s voters say they’re sure at this point how they’ll vote on Election Day. This number bears watching because it suggests the race could follow the typical pattern of three-way contests with voters shifting to one of the two major party candidates.
Seventy-two percent (72%) of GOP voters now support Rubio, while just 45% of Democrats back Meek. Crist earns support from 33% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties break 42% Crist, 27% Rubio and 24% Meek.
Meek’s base is solidifying and Crist’s base is starting to think strategically and inch away. Perrrrrfect. My only worry now: Sunshine Charlie isn’t about to ride this trend all the way to a humiliating defeat. It would be contrary to the spirit of careerism, of which he’s practically an avatar, to get nothing out of a situation where he stands to be a kingmaker or power-broker. We’ve run through these scenarios before, but I’ll restate them: He can either declare that he’ll caucus with the Democrats, which would throw a jolt into Meek’s base and force them to think strategically, or he could make a deal with the White House to bow out and endorse Meek in exchange for a favor/appointment. Some sort of sabotage seems inevitable. Which will it be?