Trend-tastic: Two more polls show Rubio ahead by double digits

posted at 7:02 pm on September 15, 2010 by Allahpundit

Reuters has him up 40/26/21 over Crist and Meek, respectively, while Rasmussen has it 41/30/23. Last night’s Fox News poll broke 43/27/21, and a Susquehana poll taken a few days ago put it at 43/29/23. Which, I guess, makes the Democratic primary last month in Florida not unlike the GOP primary last night in Delaware. By voting for Jeff Greene over Meek, Democrats would have all but guaranteed mass defections to Crist in the general election, giving them a real chance to hold the seat. (Reuters has a two-man Rubio/Crist race at 46/45.) As it is, they stuck with the “true Democrat.” And now here we are.

Eighty percent (80%) of Rubio voters now say they are certain how they will vote in November, as do 69% of Meek’s supporters, up from 48% in the previous survey. Only 45% of Crist’s voters say they’re sure at this point how they’ll vote on Election Day. This number bears watching because it suggests the race could follow the typical pattern of three-way contests with voters shifting to one of the two major party candidates.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of GOP voters now support Rubio, while just 45% of Democrats back Meek. Crist earns support from 33% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties break 42% Crist, 27% Rubio and 24% Meek.

Meek’s base is solidifying and Crist’s base is starting to think strategically and inch away. Perrrrrfect. My only worry now: Sunshine Charlie isn’t about to ride this trend all the way to a humiliating defeat. It would be contrary to the spirit of careerism, of which he’s practically an avatar, to get nothing out of a situation where he stands to be a kingmaker or power-broker. We’ve run through these scenarios before, but I’ll restate them: He can either declare that he’ll caucus with the Democrats, which would throw a jolt into Meek’s base and force them to think strategically, or he could make a deal with the White House to bow out and endorse Meek in exchange for a favor/appointment. Some sort of sabotage seems inevitable. Which will it be?


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Comments

It’s hard being orange.

John the Libertarian on September 15, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Tea party candidates are disasters, I tells ya, plain disasters. Florida GOP would have been so much better with a nice center left candidate like Crist.

/s

angryed on September 15, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Ahhhh the negativity of AP still lives!

Cookies Mom on September 15, 2010 at 7:04 PM

Crist is sooo annoying.

Akzed on September 15, 2010 at 7:05 PM

It’s tough to be an Independent. LOLOLOLOL.

Unless you’re good at it. Right, Liebs? Hahahaha.

Dusty on September 15, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Which will it be?

who knows with this one…

cmsinaz on September 15, 2010 at 7:07 PM

And to think, the GOP establishment said this man could never win…

Keemo on September 15, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Nonsense. He’s unelectable. /Rove

Ronnie on September 15, 2010 at 7:07 PM

Now c’mon Rick Scott!

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 15, 2010 at 7:08 PM

Rubio is unelectable, or so the meme went. . .

Rode Werk on September 15, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Love that song!

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:09 PM

“Rubio is unelectable!” NRSC

“O’Donnell is unelectable!” NRSC

Trendtastic, indeed.

shawk on September 15, 2010 at 7:11 PM

Perrrrrfect.

Allah, the Mr. Burns of the blogosphere.

upinak on September 15, 2010 at 7:12 PM

Cap’n Orange is looking a little green.

jdflorida on September 15, 2010 at 7:13 PM

LOL Sabotage by the Beastie Boys.

Kudos, AP. Kudos.

blatantblue on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Crist is going to hold out too long to get anything. He’s too transparently driven by nothing but power for a meaningful bloc to hold.

stldave on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

I don’t think the sabotage schemes will make a difference at this point. Maybe he should take a nice cruise with some of the other recently retired career politicians.

forest on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

You know what he needs.

A new logo!

That will fire up his base.

Lily on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

LOL Sabotage by the Beastie Boys.

Kudos, AP. Kudos.

blatantblue on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

This why Allahpundit, Ace and MKH are some of my favorite bloggers….they add music and pop culture to their political commentary. And good music too!

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:17 PM

What do you when your candidate’s a… brat?
Where do you go when your campaign goes… flat?

mankai on September 15, 2010 at 7:17 PM

It’s not easy being orange.

Wethal on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

And good music too!

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:17 PM

One of the few songs from BB that I like!

blatantblue on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

aaaah. but now Rubio is establishment Republican.

sure, the establishment GOP was wrong about Rubio, but once they took their blinders off & saw that Rubio was a winner, they have made Rubio their man. and now Rubio has sold his soul to the establishment GOP.

kelley in virginia on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

I hope Lisa M. is really calming down and watching this. It’s sort of awful to watch.

AnninCA on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

kelley in virginia on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

Goodness, he’s yet to even vote on anything!

AnninCA on September 15, 2010 at 7:20 PM

One of the few songs from BB that I like!

blatantblue on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

I’m not a BB fan either but I do like that song.

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:21 PM

You know what he needs.

A new logo!

That will fire up his base.

Lily on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Here’s a suggestion. Just change “Julius” to “Charlie” and I think you have something to work with.

stldave on September 15, 2010 at 7:22 PM

You know what he needs.

A new logo!

That will fire up his base.

Lily on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

You know what Charlie needs? More time at the tanning salon! He should invite Snooki to ,uh, tan with him.

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:25 PM

Latest NYT/CBS poll has Republicans +2, yet those polled voted Obama +14, Consider themselves Dems +10, and still LV are +2 Republicans.

WoosterOh on September 15, 2010 at 7:25 PM

Vroom! Vroom! And here is the TEA party pace car:
http://teapartypacecar.com/

onlineanalyst on September 15, 2010 at 7:25 PM

These new numbers = CHECKMATE!!

Khun Joe on September 15, 2010 at 7:26 PM

stldave on September 15, 2010 at 7:22 PM

LOL

Maybe he could have a cute little kitty or other pet in the middle.

Lily on September 15, 2010 at 7:26 PM

Which will it be?

I am sure this sleaze bag has gamed them all out plus others. Wow, this guy defines scumbag politician.

bluemarlin on September 15, 2010 at 7:29 PM

Maybe he will join the Oompa-Loompa’s and promise free chocolate to everyone?

Seems about as rational as what he has done so far…

ajacksonian on September 15, 2010 at 7:33 PM

One of the few songs from BB that I like!

blatantblue on September 15, 2010 at 7:19 PM

I’m not a BB fan either but I do like that song.

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:21 PM

Brass Monkey is the shiz

JetBoy on September 15, 2010 at 7:33 PM

Crist is the poster boy for the ruling class chameleon crowd.

It’s great theater to see these RINO traitors expose themselves like flashers in front an angry mob.

Like the raincoat commandos, they can’t help themselves, it’s who they are.

ontherocks on September 15, 2010 at 7:34 PM

The GOP promises him a job then stabs him in the back later.

GardenGnome on September 15, 2010 at 7:35 PM

He can either declare that he’ll caucus with the Democrats, which would throw a jolt into Meek’s base and force them to think strategically,

There is no way their base will ever think strategically. Strategic thinking is rather antithetical to most voters anyway (I’d give examples but I really don’t want to go there). It is particularly antithetical to a political base, that often prefers to vote on principle instead.

And we aren’t talking about any old party’s base, we are talking about the liberal Democratic base. Thinking of any kind, about principle or strategy, is asking a lot.

or he could make a deal with the White House to bow out and endorse Meek in exchange for a favor/appointment. Some sort of sabotage seems inevitable. Which will it be?

Meeks has no chance to win in Florida. No one cares about endorsements – they could throw a close race like in NY 23, but not a likely blowout. Rubio is charismatic and likeable – he’ll do fine once Crist is out of the way – many of Crist’s backers are center-right independents nowhere near leftist enough to go over to the Dems – they just aren’t strategic enough to understand that’s effectively what voting for Crist means. They’ll either come home to Rubio or stay home.

RINO in Name Only on September 15, 2010 at 7:36 PM

Brass Monkey is the shiz

JetBoy on September 15, 2010 at 7:33 PM

Oh yeah, that song is tight.

terryannonline on September 15, 2010 at 7:36 PM

LOL

Maybe he could have a cute little kitty or other pet in the middle.

Lily on September 15, 2010 at 7:26 PM

I’d just have him holding a weathervane, trying to figure out which way the winds are blowing.

stldave on September 15, 2010 at 7:38 PM

More time to work on his tan. I understand the beach at Alligator Point bay is nice.

Kissmygrits on September 15, 2010 at 7:40 PM

Let’s give The Orange One a taste of the RINO Stomp!

either orr on September 15, 2010 at 7:42 PM

Go Rubio!!

Chewy the Lab on September 15, 2010 at 7:43 PM

Still no thread on the COD moneybomb?

BKeyser on September 15, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Crist could always plan out his defense for if/when the Florida Republican Party decides to sue him.

VibrioCocci on September 15, 2010 at 7:51 PM

(to Beethoven’s 5th Symphony)

F F F FAIL
F F F FAIL

f f f fail
f f f fail
f f f fail

f f f fail
f f f fail
f f f fail
ffffail
ffffail
ffffail
ffffail

F F F FAIL…FAIL…FAIL

Good Lt on September 15, 2010 at 7:54 PM

AllahPundit……………………….

You’ve been on a Musical Theme Roll lately………

and very well played for the Thread Themes!

Canopfor stands and *Salutes You*:)

canopfor on September 15, 2010 at 7:54 PM

aaaaawhwwhw SNAP. The Beasties!! booyah can you feel it?

it’s looking like cristie is crispy!

ted c on September 15, 2010 at 7:55 PM

Is Charlie Crispy Critter Crist tan real?. or Tanning bed?.

Sure does bring out flaws in his skin!. haa

hawkman on September 15, 2010 at 7:55 PM

ditto canops shout out. I loves no really LOVES me some musically attuned thread commentage….

ted c on September 15, 2010 at 7:55 PM

If Fiorina wins in Cali, he’s gotta jams with some LL Cool J—goin back to cali

ted c on September 15, 2010 at 7:56 PM

Breaking…………………………

NASA reports Asteriod “Crist” is on a collision course…

predicted impact area………All areas,connected and ass
ociated with Team Hopey/Changey…………….

Political Fallout “expected in all Liberal regions”…..

Harry “Dingy-My Pets” Reid….this Asteriod Crist is lost…………..

canopfor on September 15, 2010 at 8:03 PM

If Fiorina wins in Cali, he’s gotta jams with some LL Cool J—goin back to cali

ted c on September 15, 2010 at 7:56 PM

ted c: Dats a good one,Maybe……
===================================

Jay Ferguson – Thunder Island (’79)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KoqgALsa_I

canopfor on September 15, 2010 at 8:06 PM

Crist converts to Islam in 3..2..1..

ronsfi on September 15, 2010 at 8:06 PM

If Fiorina wins in Cali, he’s gotta jams with some LL Cool J—goin back to cali
ted c on September 15, 2010 at 7:56 PM

Nah. Try this –

“Spend my days with a woman unkind,
Smoked my stuff and drank all my wine.
Made up my mind, make a new start,
Goin’ to California with an achin’
In my heart”

joejm65 on September 15, 2010 at 8:07 PM

Crist should learn from Snookie:

Fake tans, dyed hair and pursed and pouty lips only get you so far..

Key West Reader on September 15, 2010 at 8:08 PM

Crist is sooo annoying.

Akzed on September 15, 2010 at 7:05 PM

Akzed: Nightmarish,hehe!:)

canopfor on September 15, 2010 at 8:09 PM

Crist converts to Islam in 3..2..1..

ronsfi on September 15, 2010 at 8:06 PM

then refudiates it to gain the catholic vote….

positions.

ted c on September 15, 2010 at 8:10 PM

or he could make a deal with the White House to bow out and endorse Meek in exchange for a favor/appointment.

This sounds about right.

Opportunistic chromatic bottom feeder.

tru2tx on September 15, 2010 at 8:11 PM

Crist should learn from Snookie:

Fake tans, dyed hair and pursed and pouty lips only get you so far..

Key West Reader on September 15, 2010 at 8:08 PM

Key West Reader: True Dat,me thinks Tannable Lex Luther,
er,Crist,will go all the way on this one,
ahem!!!:)

canopfor on September 15, 2010 at 8:11 PM

Who was that white haired clown anyway?

CynicalOptimist on September 15, 2010 at 8:17 PM

Charlie has nobody but himself to blame.

Sekhmet on September 15, 2010 at 8:42 PM

Orange man is looking sort of pale in that photo. Kinda like Sherbert! LMAO

JohnnyMojo on September 15, 2010 at 9:14 PM

I’ll be curious to see what Crist does to line his pockets after he loses.

disa on September 15, 2010 at 11:08 PM

canopfor is the one who brought music to these threads…

Keemo on September 16, 2010 at 7:51 AM

As it is, they stuck with the “true Democrat.” And now here we are.

Sort of a Reverse TEA Party — Tax Everything Absolutely…

unclesmrgol on September 16, 2010 at 9:25 AM

I don’t think the sabotage schemes will make a difference at this point. Maybe he should take a nice cruise with some of the other recently retired career politicians.

forest on September 15, 2010 at 7:15 PM

Arlen Specter could use a good suntan.

Steve Z on September 16, 2010 at 9:49 AM

He can either declare that he’ll caucus with the Democrats, which would throw a jolt into Meek’s base and force them to think strategically,

Crist is still getting 19% of Republican voters in the poll quoted above. If he declares that he will caucus with the Democrats, his Republican supporters would desert him for Rubio, which represent about 6% of the total electorate, bringing Rubio up to 46%. Meek would still hang on to the black vote (about 10%) plus some diehard liberals along the Gold Coast Hanging Chad-Land, for about 15% total, leaving only about 40% for Crist.

If Crist dropped out and endorsed Meek, those 6% of Republicans still switch to Rubio, but also about half of the Independents who now support Crist. The poll quoted above shows 42% of Independents, who represent about 25% of the Florida electorate, now supporting Crist. If half of them switch to Rubio, that’s about 5% of the total electorate, which gives Rubio 40% (poll) + 6% (GOP shift) + 5% (Indie shift) = 51%. This is not as narrow as it sounds, because in the above poll, only 87% of the respondents chose ANY candidate, and some of the 13% undecided might eventually vote for Rubio, or not vote at all, if Crist dropped out.

Rubio now leads Meek by 19 points, and if Crist dropped out, Meek would have to get 87% of Crist’s current support to overtake Rubio, and a substantial fraction of them are Republicans. It’s. Not. Gonna. Happen.

We now have four straight polls showing Rubio up by double digits, in the low 40′s, while Crist is sinking into the 20′s. It has taken awhile, but Floridians have figured out that Crist is a flip-flopper who represents only himself, while Rubio is the real deal. To paraphrase a certain Ma’am, that’s Senator Rubio to you, Governor!

Steve Z on September 16, 2010 at 10:24 AM