Q-poll puts McMahon within 6 of Blumenthal

posted at 12:15 pm on September 14, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Try to remember than six months ago, almost everyone wrote off the Senate race in Connecticut after Richard Blumenthal replaced the retiring Chris Dodd in the race.  Democrats practically own Connecticut, and Republicans would be foolish to spend money on a race that Blumenthal should have won by twenty or more points.  Fortunately for the GOP, it had self-funding candidate Linda McMahon — and a gaffe-prone Democrat — in a cycle that should erase any notion of safe seats.  Quinnipiac’s latest poll shows McMahon within six points of the lead:

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, leads Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 51 – 45 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Another 3 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University’s first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

In today’s survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Blumenthal leads 87 – 10 percent among Democrats and gets 47 percent of independent voters to McMahon’s 46 percent. McMahon leads 91 – 9 percent among Republicans. Women back Blumenthal 56 – 41 percent, while men split 47 – 48 percent.

Among those backing McMahon, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Blumenthal, while 53 percent say they mainly are pro-McMahon. Blumenthal backers are 22 percent anti- McMahon and 73 percent pro-Blumenthal.

The internals extend the story, but Quinnipiac gives the overall story in its release. They split on most personal qualities fairly evenly, except on experience; 72% think Blumenthal has the right experience for the job, while 56% think McMahon doesn’t have the right experience.  Blumenthal also leads on favorability, with a 55/39 compared to McMahon’s 45/41.  But those numbers are quite the comedown from this past winter, when Blumenthal led by 30 or more points.

With seven weeks to go, McMahon appears to be gaining momentum, and perhaps in part because of the experience argument.  It’s an open seat, but Blumenthal represents the Democratic Party establishment in a cycle uniquely hostile to that very entity.  His multiple gaffes and exposure of dishonest statements has eroded his standing in Connecticut, although not yet to the point where he has sunk below 51% among likely voters.  McMahon has run a smart campaign, but the difference in this race is that Connecticut voters got a lot more acquainted with Blumenthal than they had in previous elections.

That 51% is still enough to win the seat, and McMahon is still an underdog, but this is a winnable race for Republicans.


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Get ready for the smackdown!

jimmy2shoes on September 14, 2010 at 12:18 PM

This is Doable.

The fact that Blumenthal the Liar is still ahead says more about Connecticut voters than it does about Democrats.

Come on McMahon, get up on the ropes and slam this guy.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 12:19 PM

I always thought she was a better candidate than they were giving her credit . Using the WWF as a bad thing insults a lot of people out there. We shall see.

sandee on September 14, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Blumenthal’s headed for a SMACKDOWN!!!

abobo on September 14, 2010 at 12:21 PM

On one of the big prediction sites (Cook, maybe?) I read that in the last few elections almost all (like 80%) of the toss up elections went in one direction… depending on the national trend.

It is in the close elections were that generic polling could be an important predictor.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:22 PM

Q polls are so-so, but they are based in CT, so they have some serious skin in the game and are in tune with the electorate.

Plus, LM has some great ads.. Lunch Box…

I dont think this is an outlier or a fluke. For those who think is too liberal just remember that she is self-funded and CT GOP is itching to spend its dough. This will just force liberals to allocate precious resources in a another solid Blue state and away from more conservative places.

swamp_yankee on September 14, 2010 at 12:22 PM

jimmy2shoes on September 14, 2010 at 12:18 PM

Dammit, gotta be fast ’round here!

abobo on September 14, 2010 at 12:22 PM

This is Doable.

The fact that Blumenthal the Liar is still ahead says more about Connecticut voters than it does about Democrats.

Come on McMahon, get up on the ropes and slam this guy.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 12:19 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?

Oh my.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

On one of the big prediction sites (Cook, maybe?) I read that in the last few elections almost all (like 80%) of the toss up elections went in one direction… depending on the national trend.

This one isn’t quite a toss-up yet tho, it’s moved from safe Dem to lean Dem.

Jon0815 on September 14, 2010 at 12:26 PM

THE PEOPLE’S ELBOWWWWWW

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:26 PM

“She has him in a suplex…!”

Akzed on September 14, 2010 at 12:27 PM

Baron von Raschke has endorsed McMahon, that’s all I need to know to support her.

Bishop on September 14, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Beat that little sniveling little draft dodger!

cartooner on September 14, 2010 at 12:29 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?

Oh my.

It means that they’re not a political insider but, instead, have actually done something that turned a profit.

Disagree if you want about the quality of their business, but Linda and Vince came from nothing in North Carolina to eventually buying his estranged father’s company and taking it international. That takes a lot of business acumen to pull off.

teke184 on September 14, 2010 at 12:30 PM

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

I know, right? All those awful mouth-breaters who watch rasslin’. *giggle* I mean, they’re just so dirty and filthy and common. They’d prefer McDonald’s to the new Chez Filip joint. They have no taste whatsoever. It grosses me out just to even think that sometimes my au pair has to stand in line at the DMV with them. Can you believe it?! They probably drive Ford pickup trucks and Toyotas instead of Beemers and Benzs. Seriously. It’s sickening and it gives me the heebie-jeebies. Amirite?

Abby Adams on September 14, 2010 at 12:30 PM

His multiple gaffes and exposure of dishonest statements has eroded his standing in Connecticut, although not yet to the point where he has sunk below 51% among likely voters.


Has the exposure of dishonest statements really eroded his standing in CT? The poll found voters think Blumenthal is “Honest and Trustworthy” by a surprisingly wide margin, 57-36. How does a +21 pt margin on honesty contribute to his erosion? Does not compute.

rcpjr on September 14, 2010 at 12:30 PM

And yet you get your panties in a wad about O’Donnell unseating Castle.This is the year to replace RINOs if they can be replaced, because it is a year that conservative can win.

michaelo on September 14, 2010 at 12:31 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?
Oh my.
petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

More importantly, is McMahon a true conservative?!?!?

Vyce on September 14, 2010 at 12:34 PM

Women back Blumenthal 56 – 41 percent, while men split 47 – 48 percent.

Hey, ladies, he lied to you. Doesn’t that mean something?

paul1149 on September 14, 2010 at 12:35 PM

This is the year for it to happen. She has street creds as a savvy businesswoman with little baggage and he has creds as a professional politician who lies about his military record. we’ll see which one CT voters prefer.

a capella on September 14, 2010 at 12:36 PM

And yet you get your panties in a wad about O’Donnell unseating Castle.This is the year to replace RINOs if they can be replaced, because it is a year that conservative can win.

michaelo on September 14, 2010 at 12:31 PM

McMahon is in a MUCH better position than O’Donnell. Much better

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:38 PM

She is within striking distance, and she has a truckload of her own money plus professional marketing savvy to use it.

Combine that with the state GOP expanding their ground game, a little help from the NRSC and the RNC, and she may pull it off.

This one, California, Wisconsin, Washington, and now even West Virginia.

There could be another Senate race that might become more competitive before election day.

Then we have many more Dems at risk in the 2012 cycle, like the detestable McCaskill in Missouri.

Brian1972 on September 14, 2010 at 12:39 PM

I will tell you one thing, Linda certainly has the ca$h. Nearly every other day I have a glossy mailer from her sitting in my mailbox when I get home from work. That could be a bad thing though as it seems to upset some people that I know. I just toss them in the recycle bin.

Johnnyreb on September 14, 2010 at 12:40 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?
Oh my.
petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

At least she isn’t a rodeo cowboy…or *shudder* a NASCAR driver. These common people disgust me.

Bishop on September 14, 2010 at 12:42 PM

Women on zee right,Kick’n *ss!!:)

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:42 PM

abobo on September 14, 2010 at 12:22 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMXhTYg0ktk

jimmy2shoes on September 14, 2010 at 12:42 PM

Speaking of glossy mailers, I had some Dhimmicrat mail me a flier of him walking with a local farmer, and on it was printed:

It’s time to tell Albany that we are not their ATM

lolol a Democrat saying that. Times are surely tough for the DNC.

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:43 PM

Rush is on the Christine O’Donell thingy,as I type!

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:43 PM

McMahon is in a MUCH better position than O’Donnell. Much better

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:38 PM

blatantblue: Since your a Cougar Slayer,I bet,you know
ther positions,and BB,I’m kidding!:)

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:46 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?

Oh my.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Linda McMahon isn’t a professional Wrestler, Petunia.

But you knew that.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 12:47 PM

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:46 PM

I say with a blend of great sadness and joy that my cougar days are now over (for the time being).

Sigh. O’Donnell is safe in that regard.

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:52 PM

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:46 PM
============================================
I say with a blend of great sadness and joy that my cougar days are now over (for the time being).

Sigh. O’Donnell is safe in that regard.

blatantblue on September 14, 2010 at 12:52 PM

blatantblue:Yes,I can imagine,those youthful days!:)

canopfor on September 14, 2010 at 12:56 PM

Linda McMahon isn’t a professional Wrestler, Petunia.

But you knew that.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 12:47 PM

However some people in CT who get their news from the New London Day newspaper and local channel 3 would think she was in fact a professional wrestler. The negativity about her is constant around here in south east CT. The hate burns in them with the strength of a thousand suns. They almost hate her more than they hate Palin, they are that bad.

Johnnyreb on September 14, 2010 at 1:00 PM

Will the McMahon Administration in CT resemble Idiocracy?

/I haven’t seen the movie, but I’m still amused at the thought ;)

ornery_independent on September 14, 2010 at 1:08 PM

Fair enough… what does the fact that the Republican candidate is a professional wrestler say about the Republicans?

Oh my.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

She isn’t a professional wrestler. She is on the board of the company that her husband owns/runs called World Wrestling Entertainment (formerly World Wrestling Federation). She has appeared on television in her capacity as such, but she hasn’t laced on the boots like her husband, son and daughter.

Wolftech on September 14, 2010 at 1:17 PM

She isn’t a professional wrestler. She is on the board of the company that her husband owns/runs called World Wrestling Entertainment (formerly World Wrestling Federation). She has appeared on television in her capacity as such, but she hasn’t laced on the boots like her husband, son and daughter.

Wolftech on September 14, 2010 at 1:17 PM

Petunia knows this.

Petunia is an elitist, who hasn’t really done anything except work closely with executives in an office setting. She picks up on their snobbery and runs around telling all of us how smart the ruling class is, and how we are all unwashed rubes who should bow to their wisdom.

She’s funny like that.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 1:31 PM

More importantly, is McMahon a true conservative?!?!?

Vyce on September 14, 2010 at 12:34 PM

I live in CT and I get mailers from McMahon about every two days, and they’re very well-done. She seems conservative enough–she’s for extending ALL the Bush tax cuts, reducing taxes on small business, against cap-and-trade, against ObamaCare, for offshore oil and gas drilling AND shale-oil development, pro-life, AGAINST use of embryonic stem cells, pro-Second Amendment (gun) rights. She may not be Jim DeMint or Jon Kyl, but she’s well to the right of Mike Castle and Susan Collins, and far more articulate. This will be a tough race to win, but McMahon is neither a RINO nor a Tea Partier, but about as conservative as this state can elect.

Even though Blumenthal is still over 50% in this poll, his numbers have been trending down through the 50′s this past month, while the 45% is McMahon’s highest showing yet, meaning that people are gradually shifting from Blumenthal toward McMahon, so this race IS still winnable, although if McMahon won it would be a squeaker. In the suburban Hartford area, I’ve seen a few dozen blue “Linda” yard signs, not one for Blumenthal.

By the way, Quinnipiac called ME two nights ago, and I’m one of the 45%.

Steve Z on September 14, 2010 at 2:08 PM

Will the McMahon Administration in CT resemble Idiocracy?

A McMahon Administration? She’s running for U.S. Senator, not Governor!

Idiocracy is already in the White House!

Steve Z on September 14, 2010 at 2:11 PM

Will it really matter if she’s in the Senate? She’s probably less conservative than Olympia Snowe.

V-rod on September 14, 2010 at 3:02 PM

McMahon is a solid businesswoman. This is fantastic.

gary4205 on September 14, 2010 at 3:16 PM

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 12:23 PM

On one of the big prediction sites (Cook, maybe?) I read that in the last few elections almost all (like 80%) of the toss up elections went in one direction… depending on the national trend.

This one isn’t quite a toss-up yet tho, it’s moved from safe Dem to lean Dem.

Jon0815 on September 14, 2010 at 12:26 PM

I actually think there was some percent of the leans one way or the other that went the way of the national trends as well. I wish I knew where I read it.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Petunia knows this.

Petunia is an elitist, who hasn’t really done anything except work closely with executives in an office setting. She picks up on their snobbery and runs around telling all of us how smart the ruling class is, and how we are all unwashed rubes who should bow to their wisdom.

She’s funny like that.

portlandon on September 14, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Off with your heads!!!!!

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 3:25 PM

By the way it was a joke… making the point that we… not me of course (english accent, nose in the air)… are not elitests.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 3:27 PM

Any honest work is honorable.

petunia on September 14, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Q-Poll’s not exactly reliable.

Remember, according to them, Ned Lamont was supposed to take the Dem governor nom by 8 points.

Last I checked, nobody was asking about him in these polls anymore.

SuperCool on September 14, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Again, to quote some witty commentor “The evil of two lessers.”

But then this is morally corrupt CT where addiction to abortion drives so many to vote for the Marxists. Then there’s that elitist form of greed and envy called “soak the rich” etc. even otherwise good people here no longer have any basis for moral judgement having succumbed to the promise of a secular paradise.

Don L on September 14, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Some people out there are using her escapades in the WWE like kicking her husband in the groin against her a being unladylike But hey it made money, and maybe, just maybe, it is what the Democrat ruling elite needs right now.

georgeofthedesert on September 15, 2010 at 12:26 PM