Open thread: RINOgeddon; Update: O’Donnell leads by eight with 78% in; Update: AP calls it for O’Donnell

posted at 7:50 pm on September 14, 2010 by Allahpundit

Politico will have live results. Races to keep an eye on: Rangel’s primary in NY, the New Hampshire Senate battle, and of course the Super Bowl in Delaware. There might have been a more vicious intraparty battle since we started this site, but offhand I can’t recall one. If you think this week was bad, though, try imagining a Palin/Romney primary death struggle next year. Dear lord.

For what it’s worth, although my grudging preference between two bad candidates is clear, I hope that Castle rises to the occasion and endorses her if, as expected, he loses tonight. And as quickly as possible too: Hard feelings among voters will calcify if a signal isn’t sent early to get over it. Obviously, I hope O’Donnell endorses him too if he pulls the upset, but as Geraghty notes, she’s done well as a write-in candidate before and her supporters have convinced themselves that Castle is somehow uniquely a RINO cancer on the party who must be excised. Those backing him have argued all along that defeating the Democrat is paramount, so it’s only logical that they should support O’Donnell whatever their issues with her. Question for O’Donnell supporters: Is the same true on your end? Are we in “beat Coons” mode if Castle squeaks through here, or are we following the Jim DeMint playbook that it’s better to have a pure Senate minority than a squishy majority? And a serious follow-up: If O’Donnell does lose and, in a gesture of unity and magnaminity, endorses Castle, will that hold any weight? He is, after all, the RINO antichrist.

Castle, interestingly, is now framing this race as test case for the viability of moderates in the GOP, which I assume is aimed at motivating moderate Delaware Republicans to turn out and send a message. I would have laughed at that idea a few days ago, but after the insane vitriol of the last few days, it doesn’t seem so silly. Comments are open; updates to follow. Play nice.

Update: You get live Delaware results by refreshing this page too.

Update: With 14 percent reporting, Politico has O’D up 54/45. I think she’ll come down a point or two from that, but I’m not surprised at those numbers. A Delaware paper claims Team Castle is watching in disbelief.

Update: O’Donnell leads by 10 with 37 percent reporting. I suppose in theory the early results could all be from O’Donnell districts, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll erase a lead that big with more than a third in. I wonder when they’ll call it.

Update: Word on Twitter is that, with 47 percent in, O’Donnell leads by 11. That should finish things off; just waiting for someone to call it now.

Update: O’Donnell up nine with 65 percent reporting now. Call should come soon…

Update: 78 percent in and we’re nearing this afternoon’s six-point prediction, but she’s still overperforming. Right now, O’Donnell 54, Castle 46.

Update: O’Donnell still by eight with 85 percent in. Not sure what desks are waiting for.

Update: And at last, here’s the call: The AP says O’Donnell wins. Says pollster Mark Blumenthal, “And just like that, #DESen goes from Strong Rep to Strong Dem.” I sincerely hope I’m wrong about her and that she pulls it off in November; election night will be great in any event, but it’d be fun to roll Humpbot out to celebrate victory in Delaware. For Castle fans/grudging supporters, the silver lining here is that GOP turnout in Delaware was way, way higher than Democratic turnout — which isn’t surprising given that Coons had no competition, but might spook the Dems at least into spending a bunch of money in the state. Every dollar burned there is a dollar denied to a Democrat elsewhere, so if she pulls a second upset, it’s a double win. If not, well, you were warned.

Important question now: Will Castle endorse O’Donnell in his concession?

Update: Or maybe I’m totally, completely wrong on my point about money.

Update: Not to rub salt in the wounds of Castle supporters, but … oof.

Update: Larry Sabato has already downgraded his projections for GOP gains in the Senate.

Update: PPP wastes no time in rubbing Republicans’ faces in gruesome polling numbers.

Update: Still more bad news from PPP and CNN. I’m told that Rove unloaded on O’Donnell on Fox too, but I didn’t see it.


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O’Donnell overperformed in the primary. Perhaps the expectations for the general are similarly skewed?

I can imagine a lot of Tea Party voters brushing off pollsters, or not being at home when the phone rings.

hawksruleva on September 15, 2010 at 10:50 AM

hawksruleva on September 15, 2010 at 10:48 AM

What I mean Coons is far from the invincible candidate that the MSM and the GOP establishment makes him out to be.

If O’Donnell were going up against either Biden I do believe she would lose. But against Coons who has never run for national office before, I definitely give the edge to O’Donnell.

technopeasant on September 15, 2010 at 10:53 AM

Note to Republican Establishment: Don’t try to package a liberal as a conservative anymore. The people are not buying it anymore.

I don’t know squat about O’Donnell but Castle has a track record. That record does not sound conservative to me.

RNSC pull your HEAD OUT and help this woman win if you don’t want to alienate your base.

jpmn on September 15, 2010 at 11:03 AM

“…the silver lining here is that GOP turnout in Delaware was way, way higher than Democratic turnout…”

I am so steaming mad right now. I’ll use my own state as an example of why.

I was for Chuck DeVore. He lost and Fiorina won. Every elitist and/or RINO told me that after the race it was important to get behind the candidate “the people” chose. You know what? That’s right! I am.

But here’s the REAL Truth of the matter, eh? You establishment or Libertarian, or moderate, or RINO Republicans who don’t make up a majority of the Republican Party DON’T want to support the candidate the VOTERS elect. You want the majority to support YOUR CANDIDATES and you do, lie, and say anything to get Conservatives to do it.

So here’s a thought: How about instead of putting up polling and talking points of the opposition and affectively telling fellow Republicans who, as quoted above, came out in mass that they are all a bunch of a$$wipes, you get behind them AND YOU back the candidate THE VOTERS OF DE CHOSE? Eh? That too much to ask?

Hmpf? Thanks for the support! Thanks for nothing? Everything you do brings the veil down just a bit more. We KNOW who you are now! You cannot hide it and you make me sick, you sacks of disingeneous cr@p!

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Meanwhile, the Tea Party is taking the NRSC to task for not supporting O’Donnell. Good for them.

jdawg on September 15, 2010 at 11:10 AM

Several months ago, no one thought the GOP could even come close to taking back the Senate. Now, as it has become a possibility, people throw away what has gotten them to this point to begin with and start playing the same old dumb political games that have nearly destroyed this country.

The Conservative ascendancy is like a wave in the ocean. It can be tempting to want to ride that wave faster and you can find yourself paddling to get ahead of it. Once that happens, it’s near impossible to get back on it.

Let the wave build. As it gets closer to shore, it will become more and more powerful. Stay true to the wave and don’t rush ahead.

If we need to wait 2 more years to win back the Senate, so be it. We do it right and correctly though.

BierManVA on September 15, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Note to Republican Establishment: Don’t try to package a liberal as a conservative anymore. The people are not buying it anymore.

I don’t know squat about O’Donnell but Castle has a track record. That record does not sound conservative to me.

RNSC pull your HEAD OUT and help this woman win if you don’t want to alienate your base.

jpmn on September 15, 2010 at 11:03 AM

This.

This woman won now the GOP needs to back her. The people are fed up with RINO’s who give lip service to consrvative values then promptly become Democrat-lite once in office. This conservative is fed up.

Yakko77 on September 15, 2010 at 11:24 AM

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Do tell us how you feel!

You like the “Can You Hear Us Now?” shout-out from our tiny Delaware?

Sir Napsalot on September 15, 2010 at 11:26 AM

PLEASE CALM DOWN HERE!

I AM NOT AT ALL SURE WE WANT THE GOP, NRSC BACKING HER IN DE!

This is an outsider year, incumbants are toast and we do not need a bunch of hapless goofs walkin into a Dem controlled state and slingin their stink around like they did for Castle it will drive Indies and Dems away.

Rather let the NRSC spend their money in more friendly environments and we need to help Chrisitne through direct contributions and the TEA PARTY!

DO NOT INVITE THE GOP, NSRC TO CO-OPT THE TEA PART, THEY WILL DESTROY IT!

dhunter on September 15, 2010 at 11:46 AM

You establishment or Libertarian, or moderate, or RINO Republicans who don’t make up a majority of the Republican Party…

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Uh, yes they do. How do you think the spend-happy Republicans of the last decade got into power?

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Cornyn embraces O’Donnell – Ben Smith: Cornyn embraces O’DonnellSeptember 15, 2010
Categories:2010.Cornyn embraces O’Donnell
In a clear sign of the grassroots pressure on Republican leaders, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn just put out a statement embracing Christine O’Donnell — a dramatic contrast with his group’s curt response last night — and writing her a big check.

It’s a remarkable reversal, and a vivid illustration that the base is in charge and has the leadership running scared.

Cornyn:

Let there be no mistake: The National Republican Senatorial Committee – and I personally as the committee’s chairman – strongly stand by all of our Republican nominees, including Christine O’Donnell in Delaware.

I reached out to Christine this morning, and as I have conveyed to all of our nominees, I offered her my personal congratulations and let her know that she has our support. This support includes a check for $42,000 – the maximum allowable donation that we have provided to all of our nominees – which the NRSC will send to her campaign today.

Damn as soon as I write to keep them out then THIS!

Oh well the target is the same, and the NRSC is gettin in now off to listen to RUSH for an hour I hope he kicks Roves ass!

dhunter on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Rove’s already backed off bigtime DH, his was softpeddling from his tirade from last night earlier this a.m.

It’s sure looks like Rove and the NRSC got an earfull, not only from some of us, but from across the entire country.

Rovin on September 15, 2010 at 12:25 PM

Well…AP will be very glad that Romney took a leap and endorsed CO….

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0910/Romney_backs_ODonnell.html

A day late and a dollar short….AGAIN.

tencole on September 15, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Rove’s already backed off bigtime DH, his was softpeddling from his tirade from last night earlier this a.m.

It’s sure looks like Rove and the NRSC got an earfull, not only from some of us, but from across the entire country.

Rovin on September 15, 2010 at 12:25 PM

NRSC definitely, Rove no. This morning on Fox News he repeated 80% his diatribe against COD.

slickwillie2001 on September 15, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Uh, yes they do. How do you think the spend-happy Republicans of the last decade got into power?

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

This is the problem with the Republican establishment. They crept in by deception (or by voter unawareness), and not a few.

dtestard on September 15, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Well…AP will be very glad that Romney took a leap and endorsed CO….

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0910/Romney_backs_ODonnell.html

The clown hidin in the parade, sees it round a corner, jumps in front, takes off the clown gear and wallah its MITT “ready to lead Sir”!

Kinda like “Jon Cary Reporting for doo dy!”

dhunter on September 15, 2010 at 12:57 PM

I’ll give an AP-esque take on the matter: Rove, you glorious b@stard, eat your humble pie and get in line! Your irrelevance is showing.

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 1:06 PM

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Are you kidding me? I explained as much. It’s EXACTLY what they tried to do here. Rush and Laura Ingraham can break it down for you if you need reliable sources. We’ve had moderates telling Conservatives we can’t win in blue states with Conservatives. We need moderate Liberal like Republicans. Now look whose p!ssing & moaning. Their just mad that that tactic doesn’t work anymore. Who many blue states electing more Conservative primary candidates do you need?

Don’t use the past where we Conservatives sold out with the Compassionate Conservative cr@p. Arlen is a Democrat now! Those days are gone.

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 1:15 PM

Not exactly.
Having no moral compass is usually SRO for a Dem.
But by nominating someone who also doesn’t possess one, we just joined them.
We can never play the “Our people have more integrity than yours” card against the Dems again after tonight.

Jenfidel on September 14, 2010 at 11:42 PM

Of course. Because as we all know, the perfect must be the enemy of the good. We can only claim that we are “better” if we are perfect. Even one instance, and we can be called hypocrites.

And as we all know, all hypocrites are equal. In for a penny, in for a pound.

Only by maintaining the purity of being perfectly better than they are can we show our faces.

Purity of essence… yes, that’s the key. We must have purity!

Oh, wait…

VekTor on September 15, 2010 at 1:20 PM

You establishment or Libertarian, or moderate, or RINO Republicans who don’t make up a majority of the Republican Party…

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Uh, yes they do. How do you think the spend-happy Republicans of the last decade got into power?

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Conservatives are called the base of the Republican Party for a reason. But I need to answer this for myself…

The GOP establishment lied about the conservative credentials of their members, and I was a sleeping conservative. I trusted them. The “R” was the easy thing to look for in the voting booth. It was my mistake. It was my responsibility. I squandered the responsibility entrusted to me by our country’s Founders to hold our elected officials accountable. It was my charge. And I was asleep.

Let me say that again… “It was my fault I was asleep.”

But the changes to my country have awakened me, to find that the “trusted” leadership is nothing more than the fox in the henhouse. To save the henhouse, we must oust the foxes, no matter how smooth they sound, no matter the promises they make. Unlike years past, I now check records, donate, and get involved personally. My children, and grandchildren will suffer for my inattentiveness. But no more.

Let me say this now… “I will NEVER be asleep again. I WILL hold my elected officials accountable. And they WILL feel my wrath at the polls if they deviate from the Constitution, or descend into corruption. Because it IS my responsibility. I am the guardian of my children’s future. I will not fall asleep again.”

dominigan on September 15, 2010 at 1:31 PM

I just had to get this off my chest. Sorry for the long rant…

dominigan on September 15, 2010 at 1:35 PM

They say the losing party of a general election usually goes through a re-alignment. I didn’t know how that would happen, but I now believe I am witnessing this transformation. The de-RINO-ification of the Republican party is scaring a lot of establishment people. Is that not the way it should be? Government and TPTB should be afraid of its people.

MrX on September 15, 2010 at 2:46 PM

Amen, MrX… amen!

VekTor on September 15, 2010 at 3:26 PM

You establishment or Libertarian, or moderate, or RINO Republicans who don’t make up a majority of the Republican Party…

Sultry Beauty on September 15, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Uh, yes they do. How do you think the spend-happy Republicans of the last decade got into power?

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

By making sure the base has no real option, and telling them “If you don’t vote for our guy who’s 30%-50% of what you want, then you’re voting for the leftist that wants to raise your taxes and surrender to your enemies.”

The RINOs get in power and stay in power by giving the Republican base no where else to go. Once in a great while, it bites them in the butt.

This is one of those times.

tom on September 15, 2010 at 4:12 PM

Tom thanks for schooling the dipshite

CWforFreedom on September 15, 2010 at 5:50 PM

AP calls it for O’Donnell

I thought that was Ed…?

Akzed on September 15, 2010 at 7:11 PM

And Republicans are listening to the media and pundits advice on who can win and who won’t …why?

Koa on September 15, 2010 at 7:14 PM

Castle was an establishment politician and a moderate. He

wasn’t ideal. O’Donnell, however, is a trainwreck. She is a political liability. She is an evasive liar. She will bring tarnish to the conservative and Tea Party brands.

Get real and take the beam out of thine own eye.

True_King on September 15, 2010 at 8:10 AM

Take off the blinders first.

MadisonConservative on September 15, 2010 at 10:09 AM

HE wasn’t ideal? Good Gracious he IS all but democrat in name. He is LIBERAL. HE IS PROGRESSIVE. He is not Moderate. You keep thinking with the “R” with the name, but that doesn’t make what we need anymore. Take your “r” and shove it quite frankly, because people like myself are not caring anymore. We were the ones to compromise.

Did your lovely “moderate”(LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE like yourself really) vote to shut down government from growing? NO! Did he give a hoot what conservatives would like, LIKE SMALLER government? NO! DO YOU? NO!

Get this through your head. I am not going to compromise anymore. NOT ANYMORE. I did the ‘Party R’ line for years and it got us HERE! Others are thinking me. WE weren’t getting represented by your Castle, Progressive buddy, or John McCain or any other progressive Democrat lites and I don’t want them anymore. Will we lose – yeah. but we were any with your way. YOU and people LIKE YOU, made us lose the point that we don’t care anymore we are throwing the bums out.

Noelie on September 15, 2010 at 8:08 PM

Maybe you can keep a list and hand it over to the DNC in case they miss something. Maybe you, Mr. Rove and the fine gentlemen at the NRSC can coordinate things. We wouldn’t want the democrats to miss one of these.

I cannot get over the crazy insane denial and ignorance here. People, listen, the DNC won’t need any help getting crazy O’Donnell quotes. She spent years on the talk show circuit making them! Was nobody here watching political shows in the 90′s? Are you all 25 years old? Christine isn’t some newbie that the Dems are just discovering. She’s well known to ANYBODY who has followed politics for the last 15 years. She was a staple on Politically Incorrect, for god’s sake. Just as I predicted last night-in that 24 hour period-already 3 new videos have been dug up. 24 hours! And sticking your heads the ground and pretending they don’t exist isn’t going to change that.

kit9 on September 15, 2010 at 8:10 PM

People don’t give a crap about social issues this year. If Coons runs on Social issues he’s an idiot.

Coons isn’t going to run on social issues-of course he isn’t. But her social issue extremism will be used to paint her as a nut and a buffoon and scare the living crap out of the voters.The message will be…do you want this woman as your Senator? And Coons won’t even have to lift a finger to do it. The state’s local press will be the ones doing the work for him so he’ll look like he’s above it all and allow him to focus 100% on the economy.

kit9 on September 15, 2010 at 8:19 PM

She was a staple on Politically Incorrect, for god’s sake. Just as I predicted last night-in that 24 hour period-already 3 new videos have been dug up. 24 hours! And sticking your heads the ground and pretending they don’t exist isn’t going to change that.

kit9 on September 15, 2010 at 8:10 PM

Well, unless you have a working time machine and go back to before the primaries started in Delaware to get a better candidate lined up… she’s the candidate.

Is your proposed solution to support the bearded marxist instead?

Recriminations solve nothing with respect to this race. It is what it is. You can either help get her elected now that she’s the candidate, sit on the sidelines, or help the marxist win.

Those are your choices. But now is the time to decide, because the primary is over and the general election campaign has started. If you decide to sit on the sidelines, do everyone else a favor and stop hurling invective from the peanut gallery. If you’re not interested in helping, the least you could do is stop making things worse.

VekTor on September 16, 2010 at 1:18 PM

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