If these trends continue, Republicans could gain 60 seats in the House

posted at 3:36 pm on September 13, 2010 by Patrick Ishmael

Since April, I’ve been predicting a House GOP pick-up in the low 50s. Subsequent months of data seemed to strengthen the likelihood of a 52-seat-or-so outcome without greatly expanding the field of Democratic representatives at genuine risk, but only recently has the direness of the party’s electoral predicament really crystallized. In all, a remarkably high number of Democratic seats — 118 to be exact — are now, in one way or another, in play. Forty-four seats are now pure toss-ups or worse.

The last month has been particularly bad for Democrats. From April to August, the average rating (solid/likely/lean/tossup) of Democratic seats steadily moved downward in my survey; even so, August to September turned out to be worse than all previous months combined.

4/19/2010 Δ 5/14/2010 Δ 6/6/2010 Δ 7/12/2010 Δ 8/12/2010 Δ 9/9/2010
0.96 -0.04 0.92 -0.02 0.91 -0.05 0.85 -0.03 0.83 -0.16 0.67

While I don’t think future declines will accelerate exactly quite as much as the August to September period, I do think that Democrat fortunes will continue to fall at a more modest rate for the remaining two months of the campaign season. Thus, assuming declines roughly equal to the declines in those first months and distributing them evenly to all of the races, and Democrats are looking at 52 seats that are just toss-ups or worse on election day. From seat 53 to seat 78, pretty much anything can happen, as all are between the toss-up and lean Democrat categories. Seat 79, currently Dan Maffei’s NY-25, looks to be the high end of GOP gains. However, assuming the GOP wins a third of those intervening seats, the math is pretty straightforward: about 60 new GOP seats.

This all assumes some pretty fierce wave action, which I think is reasonable to believe will happen. Moreover, the 60 most vulnerable seats listed are simply the most likely to me to flip; given the countless factors at the macro and micro levels, the actual list of 60 flipped seats will be different. Regardless of the particular Ws and Ls, the seismic political impact would be the same.

Here’s the data graphically. The first graph is sorted by congressional seat, worst score to best; the second, by monthly raw score, regardless of congressional seat.

Below is the complete list of House seats, most vulnerable to least. Press CTRL-F to search for the seats you’re interested in.

District Dem incumbent
1 TN-6 OPEN (Gordon)
2 LA-3 OPEN (Melancon)
3 NY-29 OPEN
4 AR-2 OPEN (Snyder)
5 IN-8 OPEN (Ellsworth)
6 MD-1 Frank Kratovil
7 MS-1 Travis Childers
8 KS-3 OPEN (Moore)
9 TN-8 OPEN (Tanner)
10 AR-1 OPEN (Berry)
11 NM-2 Harry Teague
12 ND-AL Earl Pomeroy
13 TX-17 Chet Edwards
14 CO-4 Betsy Markey
15 SD-AL Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
16 FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
17 IN-9 Baron Hill
18 SC-5 John Spratt
19 WV-1 Alan B. Mollohan
20 FL-2 Allen Boyd
21 OH-1 Steve Driehaus
22 OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
23 NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
24 OH-16 John Boccieri
25 NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
26 VA-5 Tom Perriello
27 WA-3 OPEN (Baird)
28 FL-8 Alan Grayson
29 NV-3 Dina Titus
30 PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
31 AL-2 Bobby Bright
32 MI-7 Mark Schauer
33 IL-11 Debbie Halvorson
34 WI-7 OPEN
35 VA-2 Glenn Nye
36 AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
37 MI-1 OPEN (Stupak)
38 PA-11 Paul Kanjorski
39 ID-1 Walter Minnick
40 NY-24 Michael Arcuri
41 IL-14 Bill Foster
42 NC-8 Larry Kissell
43 VA-9 Rick Boucher
44 MO-4 Ike Skelton
45 GA-8 Jim Marshall
46 TN-4 Lincoln Davis
47 PA-3 Kathy Dahlkemper
48 PA-8 Patrick Murphy
49 OH-18 Zack Space
50 TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
51 PA-10 Chris Carney
52 AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
53 KY-6 Ben Chandler
54 IA-3 Leonard Boswell
55 AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
56 CA-11 Jerry McNerney
57 NC-11 Heath Shuler
58 NY-20 Scott Murphy
59 CO-3 John Salazar
60 PA-12 Critz
61 NY-23 Bill Owens
62 WI-8 Steve Kagen
63 NJ-3 John Adler
64 FL-22 Ron Klein
65 IN-2 Joe Donnelly
66 OR-5 Kurt Schrader
67 MA-10 OPEN (Delahunt)
68 NY-13 Mike McMahon
69 NY-19 John Hall
70 NY-1 Tim Bishop
71 OH-13 Betty Sutton
72 NM-1 Martin Heinrich
73 VA-11 Gerald Connolly
74 MI-9 Gary Peters
75 PA-17 Tim Holden
76 PA-4 Jason Altmire
77 WV-3 Nick Rahall
78 CA-47 Loretta Sánchez
79 NY-25 Dan Maffei
80 UT-2 Jim Matheson
81 IL-8 Melissa Bean
82 MS-4 Gene Taylor
83 NC-7 Mike McIntyre
84 GA-2 Sanford Bishop, Jr.
85 IL-17 Phil Hare
86 NC-2 Bob Etheridge
87 CT-5 Christopher Murphy
88 OK-2 Dan Boren
89 MN-1 Tim Walz
90 AR-4 Mike Ross
91 WI-3 Ron Kind
92 WA-2 Rick Larsen
93 CA-18 Dennis Cardoza
94 KY-3 John Yarmuth
95 CT-4 Jim Himes
96 CO-7 Ed Perlmutter
97 NJ-12 Rush Holt
98 GA-12 John Barrow
99 OH-6 Charlie Wilson
100 ME-2 Michaud
101 OR-1 David Wu
102 OR-4 DeFazio
103 CA-20 Jim Costa
104 TN-5 Cooper
105 RI-1 Kennedy
106 IA-1 Bruce Braley
107 IA-2 Loebsack
108 TX-27 Solomon Ortiz
109 MO-3 Russ Carnahan
110 WA-9 Adam Smith
111 NC-4 Price
112 ME-1 Chellie Pingree
113 MA-5 Tsongas
114 MA-6 John F. Tierney
115 NM-3 Ben R. Luján
116 NY-4 McCarthy
117 NJ-6 Pallone
118 CA-39 Sanchez

Update: Numbers guy Nate Silver weighs in today with what I believe is his first House prediction. Worth a read, but to sum his findings: it’s very likely that the GOP will take the House, and there’s a one-in-four chance that it takes 60+ seats. My obvious suspicion is that his “60+” probability will be revised up later, but we shall see.

—–

(I’m on Twitter.)

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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Comments

Sloooow news day. Then again, PI’s posts are always pretty helpful and well done.

Abby Adams on September 13, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Russ Carnahan (MO) has got to GO

flyoverland on September 13, 2010 at 3:39 PM

hey hey, ho ho, dem house and senate, gots to go.

dthorny on September 13, 2010 at 3:42 PM

Woohoo! three Washington staters in play.

WitchDoctor on September 13, 2010 at 3:45 PM

No wonder dems are running against Obama and Pelosi.

How depressing for dems, but serves them right.

darwin on September 13, 2010 at 3:47 PM

The Dems will be losing like dogs.

It’s O.K., I can say that.

SlaveDog on September 13, 2010 at 3:49 PM

I am confident that the win will be big. I am not confident the win will be huge.
Reading some of the left comments of blogs and news sites the Dems are just as confident that “Boner” will not be speaker of the House.
My point is that our effort has to be strong and unwavering.

ORconservative on September 13, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Don’t set youselves up for disappointment. Just hope for House +40. It’s all gravy after that.

Senate- don’t count on taking it. But it’ll be close.

Bat Chain Puller on September 13, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Ok every time I see that pic it makes me lol. What is Nancy doing? Harry looks like he is sleeping.

Cookies Mom on September 13, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Woohoo! three Washington staters in play.

WitchDoctor on September 13, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Woohoo is right! I’m in Edmonds…how about you?

dont taze me bro on September 13, 2010 at 3:54 PM

I’m in a Oregon district that has a good shot and by the look of the number of lawn signs, Kurt Schrader had better start looking for work.

ORconservative on September 13, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Lucky #95, Jim Himes (CT-4) has to go, too.

If the people above him on the list are in MORE jeopardy, this will be a House tsunami. Himes is toast, and only got in because of the Obama wave. If he paid any attention at all at his “town halls,” on Obamacare, he knows it.

His Republican contender is Debicella…see ad above.

marybel on September 13, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Forget republicans! How many CONSERVATIVES are going to gain seats!!!

grapeknutz on September 13, 2010 at 4:02 PM

Just a fyi–even for #118, which is Loretta Sanchez–she’s just barely leading by 45-43. In short, all 118 could be potential pickups.

http://americanactionforum.org/files/AAF%20CA%2047%20Memo.pdf

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 13, 2010 at 4:03 PM

Patrick,

I agree with your GOP versus Democrat trends. This year should be a bloodbath of epic proportions. However, let me play Devil’s advocate for a minute and remind you that, national trends aside, each representative’s election is a distinct event. Remember the old maxim that “all politics is local”? It might apply in this case.

Physics Geek on September 13, 2010 at 4:05 PM

The TV ads should say “They were told that if they voted such away, they would be in trouble in NOV., Now they want you to feel sorry for them and to trust that they learned their lessons. Nottttt!!!”

BruceB on September 13, 2010 at 4:11 PM

It just depends on how many patriots show up and vote the dictators out, doesn’t it.

tarpon on September 13, 2010 at 4:12 PM

It’s a pity that we are in a triage situation instead of just avoiding this whole mess in the first place.

Stop voting for clueless leftists and we won’t have to go through this time and time again.

Asher on September 13, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Since Annie Little
Will beat Pallone in NJ…
Plus One-Seventeen.

Seriously, Pallone is cruising for a whoopin’. This 11-termer is hovering around 40% in the polls, which is not a good place for a twenty-two year incumbent to be. Annie Little is going to clean his clock.

Which means the 116 Republicans in above her on this list should win, too. Works for me!

Haiku Guy on September 13, 2010 at 4:36 PM

It will get worse…much worse for the Dems…How? They and obama will keep talking…they have been exposed…the more they talk the more people will be repulsed…there is no other possible outcome

winston on September 13, 2010 at 4:41 PM

Too much info, my head hurts…

abobo on September 13, 2010 at 4:51 PM

If someone can shut of boehner, yeah I can see it.

RealMc on September 13, 2010 at 5:22 PM

Great, kid! Don’t get cocky.

/Han Solo

Battlecruiser-operational on September 13, 2010 at 5:24 PM

At least 68 seats and up to 80….

roux on September 13, 2010 at 5:37 PM

Anything over 40 is gravy…

But what YUMMY GRAVY that would be!

Mmm mmm mmm…

Khun Joe on September 13, 2010 at 5:38 PM

I keep being afraid the race peeked too soon.

We really need Obama and the rest to make one more really stupid mistake. Not one that would hurt anyone of course… but some stupid slip of the tongue that again reveals their disdain for the country they govern.

petunia on September 13, 2010 at 7:11 PM

I remember last election or maybe 2006 Ann Coulter telling some host that the election did not mean that Republicans were all but extinct but quit contrary the Democrats were in the death throes. At the time I seriously could not see it. Now I’m thinking how prescient she was.

Queen0fCups on September 13, 2010 at 11:23 PM

Caption depicting the true Speaker Phulofit.

Harry the only way we and going to win this election and keep our cushy jobs is to crush the testicles of Republicans and anyone who disagrees with our actions, and place them in S of S Clinton’s Lock Box.

MSGTAS on September 14, 2010 at 9:38 AM