Raese within five points in WV Senate race

posted at 10:55 am on September 9, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

At one point, the challenge in West Virginia was supposed to be finding a Republican that would agree to serve as sacrificial lamb to the eventual anointing of Governor Joe Manchin as Robert Byrd’s replacement in the Senate.  A funny thing happened on the way to the landslide, however — a real political race broke out.  John Raese has made this, well, a race, according to the latest Rasmussen poll, which has him almost within the margin of error:

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese continue to run a surprisingly close race in the state’s special Senate election to replace the late Robert Byrd.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia shows Manchin with 50% support and Raese with 45%, when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Without leaners, it’s even closer:

If leaners are not included, Manchin posts a 48% to 44% lead over Raese. In late August just after the two men won their respective party primaries, Manchin was ahead 48% to 42%. In a hypothetical matchup in July after state legislators officially approved the special Senate election this year, Manchin led Raese by a 51% to 35% margin.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of those who support Manchin say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 65% of Raese’s backers.

Raese easily wins among WV independents, with leaners (59/30) or without (61/30).  Manchin wins big among women, outpacing Raese by 21 points in either look at the numbers, but Raese has a 13- or 14-point advantage among men.  Interestingly, Democrats are more uncertain of their vote (31%) than Republicans (25%), while almost a third of independents are still on the fence (32%).  That could mean a late break away from Manchin in his own base, which despite his popularity (70% job approval) is clearly not making a convincing case for a move to the Senate this year.

Manchin’s candidacy is facing the same headwinds as Democrats across the country, plus another gust from his own favorability.  Almost a majority of respondents want Manchin to stay in his current job.  Combine that with the unpopularity of ObamaCare, which 65% of WV voters want repealed, and 60% of the voters think th economy is getting worse, and that makes a powerful combination that favors giving the seat to the Republican.

It’s telling that Manchin hasn’t gotten to 50% in a state where his job approval ratings are through the roof.  Voters don’t want to send Democrats to Congress, not even very popular Democrats who have won amazing bases of support within their states.  In this case, West Virginia voters can eat their Manchin cake and have a Republican cake in the Senate too by keeping Manchin right where they want him most, instead of providing Barack Obama and Harry Reid another vote for the current Democratic agenda that includes a cap-and-trade bill that will kill the economy in their state.  If Raese makes this much closer, he could win a race that no one thought would be competitive two months ago.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

A funny thing happened on the way to the landslide, however — a real political race broke out.

heh! I think AP said the same thing.

ted c on September 9, 2010 at 10:57 AM

oops, that was you Ed. my bad as we say on the hoops court.

ted c on September 9, 2010 at 10:58 AM

The evening of Nov. 2 is going to be one of the best nights that this country has ever seen.

There won’t even be enough popcorn to go around!!!

LordMaximus on September 9, 2010 at 10:59 AM

Hang Obama and his anti-coal positions around Manchin’s neck.

artist on September 9, 2010 at 11:00 AM

The evening of Nov. 2 is going to be one of the best nights that this country has ever seen.

There won’t even be enough popcorn to go around!!!

LordMaximus on September 9, 2010 at 10:59 AM

I’ve already got November 3 penciled as a vacation day. I figure I’ll be up late the night before watching heads explode(possibly in a literal sense) on MSDNC and CNN.

Doughboy on September 9, 2010 at 11:02 AM

West Virginia, Mountain Momma. Take me home. Country Roads!

WisRich on September 9, 2010 at 11:03 AM

Hang Obama

artist on September 9, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Racist!

/MFM

KingGold on September 9, 2010 at 11:05 AM

The state has gone reliably to the GOP over the past decade, their incumbent senators being a well-known exception. I will not be surprized to see Raese win.

Vashta.Nerada on September 9, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Down South here – the GOP hopefuls aren’t running negative against their Bluedog opponents …

They are running negative against Pelosi and linking Bluedogs to Pelosi and Obama and a government out of touch.

The term “Liberal Congress” is being used A LOT.

The term “I’m a CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN” is being used a lot.

Don’t even need to mention the name of the Democratic opponent – people know what’s going on. The Democrats declared war on the American people. Now they’re about to get the first dose of retribution from America.

HondaV65 on September 9, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Speaking of polls, Obama just tanked in today’s Rasmussen:

-24 and only 41% approving (lowest ever).

Hongqi on September 9, 2010 at 11:07 AM

I would just like to point out that even John Dingell in Michigan is worried about his seat. If Dingell loses then Republicans will win the Senate and take 90 to hundred House seats. Because if even someone like Dingell can lose then it will be a true blood bath this November.

NotCoach on September 9, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Vashta.Nerada on September 9, 2010 at 11:06 AM

You’d think so, but the Dems dominate all of the state offices, and thy’re a good deal more conservative than about a third of the state Republican parties.

It’s all about the brand there – Republicans just don’t get votes without family connections or name recognition. One news article I read noted that until ’08, WV always voted for incumbent presidential candidates – they voted for Carter in ’80 – or for strong associations.

KingGold on September 9, 2010 at 11:11 AM

We think Joe Manchin
Is doing a great job here.
Why risk a good thing.

If Manchin wins this
Who will be Governor next?
Someone not so good?

Let’s play it safe, guys.
Let’s keep Manchin in Charleston.
Send Rease to DC.

Haiku Guy on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM

How do you pronounce Raese?

“Race”? “Ray-cee”? “Rah-eez”? “Ross”?

Help me out, mountainfolk.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM

Charleston.

Haiku Guy on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM

I’d like to take issue with you for making this 3 syllable word into a 2 syllable word.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:19 AM

A long as Pelosi has a leash on the blue dogs they will be known for what they did TO the American people, not what they did FOR the Americaqn people. A blue dog lies to his constituents at election time and stabs them in the back as the polls close. Blue dogs are doomed to extinction. Pelosi could care less.

volsense on September 9, 2010 at 11:32 AM

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese continue to run a surprisingly close

There’s that word again. I wish the MSM would ban the use of surprisingly and unexpectedly. In the word of the immortal Inigo Montoya, “You keep using that word, do not think it means what you think it means.”

Tommy_G on September 9, 2010 at 11:36 AM

The evening of Nov. 2 is going to be one of the best nights that this country has ever seen.

There won’t even be enough popcorn to go around!!!

LordMaximus on September 9, 2010 at 10:59 AM

I can hardly wait!! I’ve already scheduled 11.3 as a vacation day so I can stay up VERY late and watch all the sad faces on MSNBC/CNN/ABC/CBS. I’m practially giddy!

Oink on September 9, 2010 at 11:37 AM

How do you pronounce Raese?

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM

Figured it out: “Ray-cee”, like the word “racy”.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:39 AM

John Raese needs to run an ad:

“Joe Manchin has been a great Governor, but now he wants to go to Washington as our Senator. I don’t think that’s a good idea. In Washington he’ll start hanging out with the wrong crowd (pictures of Pelosi and Reid here). They’ll be talking him into trying out tax increases “just this once” and before you know it he’ll be hooked. He might end up supporting cap and trade once Pelosi and Reid get done with him.

“We need someone in Washington who doesn’t need to be friends with that crowd, but can go his own way, and do what’s best for West Virgina.”

“Lets keep Joe Manchin here at home, where he’ll stay a good Democrat, instead of getting entangled in those Democrats back in DC.”

Something along those lines.

Sackett on September 9, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Abby Adams–It’s pronounced ‘Ray-cee’. I’m in the red northern panhandle, and I’m starting to hear Raese ads on our WWVA station and Fox channels, pushing the winning (hopefully) theme of not sending another ‘rubber stamp’ for Obama’s liberal agenda to DC. They also need to start pushing the ‘keep Joe in Charelston’ theme as well.

dish on September 9, 2010 at 11:42 AM

I’d like to take issue with you for making this 3 syllable word into a 2 syllable word.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:19 AM

It’s totally become a two-syllable word.

We don’t say CHAR-LES-TON. We say CHARL-STON.

Sucks for the E, but English evolves.

tigerinexile on September 9, 2010 at 11:47 AM

There’s that word again. I wish the MSM would ban the use of surprisingly and unexpectedly. In the word of the immortal Inigo Montoya, “You keep using that word, do not think it means what you think it means.”

Tommy_G on September 9, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Unfortunately, I think they use it correctly. The MSM believes what the Dems tell them, so when reality intrudes, it’s always a bit of a shock.

hawksruleva on September 9, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Sackett on September 9, 2010 at 11:41 AM

Hire this man!

pseudonominus on September 9, 2010 at 11:50 AM

How do you pronounce Raese?

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Figured it out: “Ray-cee”, like the word “racy”.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:39 AM

“If he wins, then it’ll be pronounced ‘Racist'” – Media

ChrisB on September 9, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Manchin might be the victim of his own success–WV voters want him right where he is as Governor, and may not want to send another Taxacrat to Washington.

It’s the opposite of what we see here in CT, which has elected Democrat Senators and Republican Governors for 16 years straight. Voters here send Democrats to the Senate to increase taxes on the rest of the country, and elect Republican governors to veto out-of-control spending in their own state. Makes sense from a selfish point of view, but it’s not considerate of the rest of the country.

Steve Z on September 9, 2010 at 12:03 PM

All these polls are prefaced with “if the race were held today…” And every day brings more bad news for the Dems. They may want to move those elections up to today to stop the bleeding.

cartooner on September 9, 2010 at 12:17 PM

DOTUS working hard even in the West Virginia race?

Maybe instead of Destroyer of the United States the moniker should change to DOTDP (Destroyer of the Democrat Party)?

PappyD61 on September 9, 2010 at 12:47 PM

What is WRONG with the women in this country?

Twenty-one points for the donkey?

JEM on September 9, 2010 at 2:30 PM

How do you pronounce Raese?

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Figured it out: “Ray-cee”, like the word “racy”.

Abby Adams on September 9, 2010 at 11:39 AM

“If he wins, then it’ll be pronounced ‘Racist’” – Media

ChrisB on September 9, 2010 at 11:55 AM

Hehe, probably. This is going to be a good one folks. I’m still surprised by how little attention it’s getting. Could end up being the difference in who gets a majority in the Senate, and I think the late deciders will break for Raese. Obama-Pelosi-Reid regime is very unpopular in WV, and like Ed points out, they get to keep Manchin as Governor while at the same time deny the Democrats another semi-reliable vote in the Senate.

forest on September 9, 2010 at 4:48 PM