Poll puts Rubio up 14 points over Crist, 20 over Meek

On the heels of an odd CNN poll using a registered-voter sample showing the race all but tied in Florida, a new media poll in the state using a likely voter sample shows a much different race for the Senate seat.  Marco Rubio gets 43% of the vote in the three-way race, outpacing his rivals by double-digit margins.  Rubio also wins a plurality of independent voters for the first time since the summer began:

Republican Marco Rubio, garnering surprising strength among independent voters, holds a double-digit lead over his two chief rivals in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, a new Sunshine State News Poll reports.

The survey of likely voters shows Rubio with 43 percent, independent Charlie Crist with 29 percent, Democrat Kendrick Meek with 23 percent and the remaining 5 percent undecided.

The news got even worse for Charlie Crist:

“Among independents, Rubio even leads Crist narrowly, 38 percent to 36 percent,” Lee said. Meek garners just 16 percent of independents.

Rubio captures a solid 70 percent of GOP voters vs. just 21 percent for Crist and 6 percent for Meek, the poll reveals. Among Democrats, Meek won a modest 45 percent of the vote, with Crist at 35 percent and Rubio 14 percent.

In order to win, Crist needs a convincing plurality of both Democrats and independents to catch Rubio.  This poll shows that Crist has gone the wrong direction among both, with independents moving to Rubio and Democrats coming home to Meek.  The expected boost from the DSCC in the next few weeks will almost certainly move more Democrats into Meek’s column and away from Crist, who may have a hard fight just to remain in second place.

Meanwhile, Rubio has begun advertising but hasn’t yet committed heavy money to the rotation.  The light, positive touch appears to be working, although the death of his father also sidelined the campaign for a few days.  He still has to debate Meek and Crist, which at this point may be the only chance his rivals have of catching him.  Rubio, however, is a polished debater and public speaker and is very unlikely to give them that kind of opening.

The big question will be why CNN still uses a registered voter sample instead of a likely voter screen.  In this midterm cycle, the difference is very significant, and with less than eight weeks to go, one has to wonder when CNN will make the transition — the day before the election?

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