Paul up 15 in new Survey USA poll

posted at 10:30 am on September 5, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s put this in Kentucky Derby terms.  Democrats backed the best frontrunner they had and hoped Jack Conway would take the inside track against newcomer Rand Paul.  However, approaching the turn, Conway has fallen off the pace as the Republican hits his stride in the new Survey USA poll:

In an election for the open United States Senator seat from Kentucky today, 09/02/10, Republican Rand Paul defeats Democrat Jack Conway, 55% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Paul is up 4 points; Conway is down 3. There is important learning in the movement among men, which is consistent with SurveyUSA polling in other hi-profile 2010 state contests. Men have turned their backs on the Democrats. The Democrat Conway got 44% of male voters in May, 38% in July, 31% today, in September. See the interactive tracking graph, a SurveyUSA exclusive. The erosion in male support, observed in California polling and Washington state polling, is occurring regardless of whether there is a Tea Party candidate on the ballot.

One might call this a NASCAR Dad election, except that California and Washington aren’t known as big NASCAR states.  Whatever one wants to call it, the change in Kentucky has been substantial.  Conway now trails Paul more than 2-1 among men, 31/65, from 44/54 in May.  He only barely edges Paul among women, 48/45.  Demographically, this is the biggest problem Conway faces.

It’s not the only problem, though.  Paul wins 60% of voters under 50 years of age, and 52% of voters 50 and older.  He also wins 37% of the African-American vote, a surprisingly high number for a Republican candidate.  Paul gets 56% of independents and 32% of Democrats, while only losing 16% of Republicans.  Paul wins majorities in each of the four regions of Kentucky used in this survey.  The only demographic Conway wins convincingly are among those who oppose the Tea Party, which he wins 90/8, while Paul wins Tea Party supporters (87/10), Tea Party agnostics (60/35), and people who have no opinion on it at all (45/37).

Kentucky was one of two Senate races that Democrats thought they could win by making the Tea Party an issue (the other being Nevada).  So far, the Tea Party issue seems to be either favoring Paul or not playing a factor at all.  The real issue in this election isn’t the Tea Party but the Democratic agenda of Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi, and Kentucky voters don’t want to send someone to Washington DC who will enable it.


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Back to the drawing board, silly Democrats.

JammieWearingFool on September 5, 2010 at 10:32 AM

But Rand Paul is an unelectable wingnut, even for a red state like Kentucky. Right?

ddrintn on September 5, 2010 at 10:33 AM

The people want their constitution back.

IronDioPriest on September 5, 2010 at 10:34 AM

People are starting to understand what and who the democrats really are.

darwin on September 5, 2010 at 10:34 AM

The real issue in this election isn’t the Tea Party but the Democratic agenda of Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi, and Kentucky voters don’t want to send someone to Washington DC who will enable it.

they’ll keep pushing that along with blame bush at their own peril…

cmsinaz on September 5, 2010 at 10:36 AM

At least he isn’t his father!

Inanemergencydial on September 5, 2010 at 10:38 AM

another conspiracy theory for Rachel Maddow…

mjbrooks3 on September 5, 2010 at 10:39 AM

So the gender gap is widening. In the 80′s all the MSM would talk about was that Reagan was losing the “gender gap,” as Republicans were 15 or 20 points more popular among men than women (the famous Female Gender Gap). I always wondered why they didn’t also talk about the fact that the Democrats were losing the gender gap because they were exactly 15 or 20 points less popular among men than women (the decidedly non-famous Male Gender Gap). But that point of view was balanced. Their point of view was pro-Liberal and pro-Democratic.

Fred 2 on September 5, 2010 at 10:43 AM

Paul wins 60% of voters under 50 years of age, and 52% of voters 50 and older. He also wins 37% of the African-American vote, a surprisingly high number for a Republican candidate. Paul gets 56% of independents and 32% of Democrats

37% African-American and 32%of the Democrats. It’s looking like Belmont ’73.

forest on September 5, 2010 at 10:45 AM

It’s the hand of AquaBuddha at work.

Dusty on September 5, 2010 at 10:46 AM

Speaking of polls=Rasmussen has this bho at 24 strong approve-47 strong disapprove at -23. This is the lowest recorded by Rasmussen for this bho! I guess more prime time tv should help this come up?
L

letget on September 5, 2010 at 10:48 AM

What is Survey USA’s track record?

LurkerDood on September 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM

One might call this a NASCAR Dad election, except that California and Washington aren’t known as big NASCAR states.

Number of NASCAR Sprint Cup races in CA this year: 3

Number of NASCAR Spring Cup Races in KY this year: 0

Mark1971 on September 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM

I’m puzzled. It seems that the majority of women always favor the democrat in these polls and yet, some of the strongest Republican candidates are women! What am I missing?

Vince on September 5, 2010 at 10:56 AM

Speaking of polls=Rasmussen has this bho at 24 strong approve-47 strong disapprove at -23. This is the lowest recorded by Rasmussen for this bho! I guess more prime time tv should help this come up?
L

letget on September 5, 2010 at 10:48 AM

Just a little over 20% of the people approve of BHO, While real close to 50% of the people disapprove of him.

BruceB on September 5, 2010 at 11:00 AM

I’m puzzled. It seems that the majority of women always favor the democrat in these polls and yet, some of the strongest Republican candidates are women! What am I missing?

Vince on September 5, 2010 at 10:56 AM

Women used to rely on men as providers. Now, many look to the government as their provider. Never underestimate the power and grip of entitlements.

darwin on September 5, 2010 at 11:00 AM

He also wins 37% of the African-American vote, a surprisingly high number for a Republican candidate. Paul gets 56% of independents and 32% of Democrats…

If he could take these numbers national, he could…..

Nah.

SlaveDog on September 5, 2010 at 11:05 AM

Go Rand!

BuckeyeSam on September 5, 2010 at 11:07 AM

I think one of the issues the Democrats face is that everyone now knows a vote for any Democrat is a vote for hardcore socialism. So you “moderate” Democrats can claim to be as moderate as they want, we know they are going to vote for trillion dollar giveaways and socialized healthcare.

Time to try to teach them a lesson…

18-1 on September 5, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Good – I really like him. Think his Dad has a few screws loose but I like him.

gophergirl on September 5, 2010 at 11:08 AM

Oh no! It is the fault of that tea party and them putting up extreme candidates! This guy is Soooo extreme he actually wants the government to folllow the constitution!

GardenGnome on September 5, 2010 at 11:09 AM

[letget on September 5, 2010 at 10:48 AM]

Speaking of other polls, Survey USA posted on WA-2:

Koster (R) – 50%
Larsen (D) – 46%

800 registered voters; 612 likely voters.

RCP has WA-2 in Likely Dem column.

Dusty on September 5, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Number of NASCAR Sprint Cup races in CA this year: 3

Number of NASCAR Spring Cup Races in KY this year: 0

Mark1971 on September 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Those numbers don’t mean a lot. California has lost one of those races for 2011 because of fan apathy. Having two races a year at the Sonoma track has been a failed experiment to extend the NASCAR fan base in CA. NASCAR wanted to build a track in Washington, but the politicians and the tree-huggers blocked them.

Kentucky gets its first cup race in 2011.

Kentucky, as a percentage of the voters, is a NASCAR state. California and Washington are not.

NoNails on September 5, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Weren’t there people who said whomever endorsed Rand Paul were complete loser?

portlandon on September 5, 2010 at 11:21 AM

If this is what a world class “temper tantrum” looks like then I think I’ll join in.

chemman on September 5, 2010 at 11:24 AM

The only demographic Conway wins convincingly are among those who oppose the Tea Party, which he wins 90/8, while Paul wins Tea Party supporters (87/10), Tea Party agnostics (60/35), and people who have no opinion on it at all (45/37).

My two cents as a Kentuckian:

The people who oppose the TP in KY oppose it because they rely on the msm for their sole source of enlightenment.

The TP supporters who oppose Paul are Lisa Graaf and her band of sour-grape eaters.

Unfortunately, the people in the other categories are pretty much clueless on anything related to politics and at least half of them are pretty much clueless on most everything else too.

NoNails on September 5, 2010 at 11:29 AM

When he was talking, he was sinking in the polls.

When he shut up, he began rising.

Anyone else see a trend? Note to tea partiers: stfu.

NoStoppingUs on September 5, 2010 at 11:30 AM

This poll doesn’t state the percentage of dreaded neoconz11!111 that are voting for Paul Jr.

stefanite on September 5, 2010 at 11:30 AM

What is Survey USA’s track record?

LurkerDood on September 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM

They’re among the most accurate pollsters in the nation:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

Inkblots on September 5, 2010 at 11:38 AM

But Meghan said he was a “mistake”. Don’t the voters know who the **** she is?

Marcus on September 5, 2010 at 11:43 AM

What is Survey USA’s track record?

LurkerDood on September 5, 2010 at 10:50 AM

ELEPHANTS IN THE BLUEGRASS

NoNails on September 5, 2010 at 11:44 AM

I guess there is NoStoppingYou…

What a twag!

Inanemergencydial on September 5, 2010 at 11:46 AM

But Meghan said he was a “mistake”. Don’t the voters know who the ****she is?

Marcus on September 5, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Meghan (the progressive republican) McCain surprised everyone by writing a book. Most who know of her were shocked she could even read. Try to picture the lifeform who would buy something this buffoon would write. Not a pretty picture.

volsense on September 5, 2010 at 12:02 PM

Same thing will happen with Sharron Angle. Fear not.

SouthernGent on September 5, 2010 at 12:12 PM

If he could take these numbers national, he could…..

Nah.

SlaveDog on September 5, 2010 at 11:05 AM

If he could take these numbers national…

Yeah.

But one election at a time.

For now, Hell Yeah that’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout!!

JohnGalt23 on September 5, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Same thing will happen with Sharron Angle. Fear not.

SouthernGent on September 5, 2010 at 12:12 PM

From your keyboard to God’s CRT.

‘Cause the clock’s a-ticking.

JohnGalt23 on September 5, 2010 at 12:15 PM

Rand Paul up 15% = DeadHeat in LameStreamMedia Parlance

bobnox on September 5, 2010 at 12:20 PM

I’m from Kentucky and the only people I know there who are supporting Conway are state employees, Democratic politicians, and aging hippies. A lot of people are a little afraid of Rand Paul, but they are SO pissed off at the Democrats that they would have voted for a coffee table this year if it had an (R) next to its name.

It’s looking like even Ben Chandler may lose in the 6th District, and I thought he would be there until he was dead.

rockmom on September 5, 2010 at 12:39 PM

Oh, and BTW, the Courier-Journal is as liberal as the New York Times, so this poll must have them vomiting today. :-)

rockmom on September 5, 2010 at 12:42 PM

They’re among the most accurate pollsters in the nation:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

Inkblots on September 5, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Thanks!

LurkerDood on September 5, 2010 at 12:59 PM

I’m from Kentucky and the only people I know there who are supporting Conway are state employees, Democratic politicians, and aging hippies. A lot of people are a little afraid of Rand Paul, but they are SO pissed off at the Democrats that they would have voted for a coffee table this year if it had an (R) next to its name.

It’s looking like even Ben Chandler may lose in the 6th District, and I thought he would be there until he was dead.

rockmom on September 5, 2010 at 12:39 PM

I live in the 6th, and I think Andy Barr’s got a good chance at beating Chandler. Cap & Tax will be the biggest reason why.

BTW, I don’t understand why anyone should fear RP. He’s one vote in a caucus and one vote of 100. his “fringe” positions on some issues are certainly outweighed by his constitutional conservative positions on most other issues.

NoNails on September 5, 2010 at 1:13 PM

“I’m puzzled. It seems that the majority of women always favor the democrat in these polls and yet, some of the strongest Republican candidates are women! What am I missing?
Vince on September 5, 2010 at 10:56 AM

Don’t forget that abortion has come to equal “women’s issues” for many, with the Dems painting the GOP as wanting to control their bodies.

This is also part of the appeal of Palin for 2012, IMO. If she can move the needle on female voters in the R direction, without losing much of the male vote to the D side, she’s in.

cs89 on September 5, 2010 at 1:30 PM

BTW, I don’t understand why anyone should fear RP. He’s one vote in a caucus and one vote of 100. his “fringe” positions on some issues are certainly outweighed by his constitutional conservative positions on most other issues.

NoNails on September 5, 2010 at 1:13 PM

I think it is a sense that maybe he just isn’t ready for prime time. Some people were already tired of Jim Bunning’s nuttiness on occasion, and they are worried that Paul will be nutty even more often.

Kentucky has never elected an outsider like Rand Paul, at least not in my lifetime. Senators have always been former Governors or former Congressmen or big county executives like Mitch McConnell. It’s always been a “move up the pecking order” state. So it’s very, very unusual for someone like Rand Paul to come out of nowhere to win a statewide election. Sometimes a millionaire businessman like John Y. Brown can get elected Governor, but people know he will only be there 4 years, and if he turns out to be an idiot he can’t do much damage in 4 years. :-)

My personal feeling about the Paul/Grayson primary was that the GOP voters were really sending a message directly to Mitch McConnell, not an ideological message. Mitch forced Bunning to retire and tried to clear the field for his protege Grayson. Trey’s a good guy – I’ve known him for a long time and I know he would have been a good Senator, but this was the wrong year for him. The voters have had enough of kingmakers, especially this year; they are telling the “establishment” of both parties that they just want to be heard.

That’s really the fundamental cause of the Tea Party movement – listen to us! Stop shoving people and 2000-page bills and trillions of debt down our throats without asking us!

rockmom on September 5, 2010 at 2:24 PM

There’s an important lesson here: Tea Partiers may start a little rough sometimes, but they are electable.

Watch Alaska, too — I bet dollars to doughnuts a poll finds him +15 or better before Election Day.

Now I’d just to see Angle pull decisively ahead in NV. It sounds like they are gradually getting their act together, or at least trying hard.

TallDave on September 5, 2010 at 2:54 PM

Obama goes to Wisconsin, Feingold disappears, heh.

Schadenfreude on September 5, 2010 at 2:58 PM

Feingold turns sheepish on Obaaaahmaaaa!
It took eight years for Repubs to distance themselves from Bush, but barely two years for dems to distance themselves from Obama even in socialist states like Wisconsin. What a world. Instant karma’s gonna get the dems, gonna knock them in their heads, they can’t keep the votes together, come November their party’s gonna be dead. How in the world are the dems gonna see? Laughing at the teaparty?

eaglewingz08 on September 5, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Oh no! It is the fault of that tea party and them putting up extreme candidates! This guy is Soooo extreme he actually wants the government to folllow the constitution!

GardenGnome on September 5, 2010 at 11:09 AM

No, you don’t understand – it’s a red state thing. If Rand Paul were in a blue state, we should just abandon the state and hope a RINO could win.

/Allahpundit

fossten on September 5, 2010 at 5:50 PM

I’m puzzled. It seems that the majority of women always favor the democrat in these polls and yet, some of the strongest Republican candidates are women! What am I missing?

Vince on September 5, 2010 at 10:56 AM

In addition to what darwin on September 5, 2010 at 11:00 AM wrote, women are more often driven by emotion/feelings. Also they are more likely to suffer from EITP. Estrogen Impaired Thought Processes.

PakviRoti on September 5, 2010 at 9:08 PM

I think it is a sense that maybe he just isn’t ready for prime time.

rockmom on September 5, 2010 at 2:24 PM

Honestly? The only people who feel that way are the elite establishment Republicans who backed Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist.

Looks to me, by the polling – that Kentucky voters have no problem whatsoever with Mr. Paul – and find him completely ready for primetime.

HondaV65 on September 5, 2010 at 9:15 PM

Paul’s handlers have brilliantly kept him away from unstructured settings since his early gaffes. Stay on message against Obama/Pelosi/Reid and don’t get distracted. Angle’s people should be telling her the same thing. If Reid’s the issue in Nevada, he loses by 10% or more. If she is the issue, it will be close enough to steal.
`
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Still, we must observe Rand Paul as a fringe nut by his own words and deeds. He gave literally hundreds of speeches decrying US foreign policy – not just Bush foreign policy, but pretty much ANY foreign policy. Now, he was campaigning for his father when he said these things, but he stated them as principles, never qualifying with “Daddy believes …”.
`
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We shall see how dependable his vote is on our national interests. We shall see if he votes against all spending bills, like Daddy. We shall see if, like Daddy, he gets all his earmarks and pork loaded into the bills before voting against them. Oh, he will surely be better than the Democrat would – but the same can be said of Mike Castle.

Adjoran on September 6, 2010 at 3:15 AM

I think there’s great irony in the fact that both U.S. Senate candidates in Kentucky are Duke alumni.

I’m not a UofK fan. There fans have to choose between a Duke lawyer and a Duke doctor.

One thing to note about the poll is that Kentucky is often a bellweather state. It wasn’t in 2008, but that was an anomaly.

Ampleforth on September 6, 2010 at 8:57 AM

The Dims want us to fret about Kentucky so we don’t concentrate totally on Nevada.

Speedwagon82 on September 6, 2010 at 9:04 AM