Survey USA poll shows Whitman, Fiorina leading in CA

posted at 9:30 am on September 3, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Welcome to California … the Red State.  At least that’s what Survey USA finds in its latest poll of likely voters in the gubernatorial and Senate races, where Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina still lead.  Fiorina barely edges Barbara Boxer in what is really a dead heat, but Whitman still beats Jerry Brown outside the margin of error — and the former two-term Governor still remains stuck at 40%:

Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer remains locked in a tight fight with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. 3 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls have shown the contest within the theoretical margin of sampling error, though, in all 3 cases, the Republican has been nominally ahead, confounding many observers and, for now, preserving the possibility of a take-away. Today, it’s Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%. There is movement, or perhaps statistical noise, among Hispanic voters.

In the contest for Governor of California, it’s Republican Meg Whitman 47%, Democrat Jerry Brown 40% today. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Whitman is up 3, Brown is down 3. But, compared to a SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago: no change. Among men, the race has been flat since polling began in July, with Whitman at 50% in each poll, and Brown at 35% to 37%. Among women, more volatility, with Brown 13 points atop Whitman 3 weeks ago, but tied with the former eBay CEO both 7 weeks ago and today.

If both Boxer and Brown lose, what does that say about the direction of California — and what does it mean for Barack Obama? California’s one of the few states where his approval numbers remain mildly positive.  If that’s true and Democrats still lose statewide races in this cycle, it makes Obama an irrelevance, and perhaps means that the state with the largest number of electoral votes may be in play two years from now.

The demos on the gubernatorial race are intriguing, too.  Whitman gets 59% of independent voters, not entirely unexpected in this cycle, but she also gets 20% of Democrats, too.  Whitman may not win the ethnic demos, but she does better than most would expect, with 32% of the African-American vote and 37% of the Hispanic vote, too.  She also wins every income bracket, and every geographic region except the Bay area.

Of course, this could be a fluke, too, brought on by two very flawed Democrats.  Jerry Brown is an ancient retread from the Paleobiggovernment Era in California, but not quite old enough for everyone to forget what a lousy job he did in his two terms as Governor from 1974-1982.  And Barbara Boxer will be known as Senator Ma’am, a point embarrassing enough to merit a question during the debate — and for Boxer to pass on another chance to just apologize for her arrogance.  Instead, she attempted to explain her way out of it, and the NRSC pounced:

After this, Boxer may join Brown at the bottom of the 40s for the next eight weeks.


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“Mama Grizzlies” turning Californica RED for themselves 2010 and for SARAH “the big mama” grizzly 2012!

WWHHOOOOT!

dhunter on September 3, 2010 at 9:34 AM

Governor Moonbeam’s Portrait in the Capitol

Disturb the Universe on September 3, 2010 at 9:35 AM

The one thing the polls do not account for…look at Florida, the dems did not show up to vote, they are whipped dogs.
The Republicans will be out in force voting, and the dems will have a dismal turnout.
If the polls show 50/50, then actual vote will be more like 55/45…the dems need to be 5 points ahead to have any hope of winning an election.
Republicans are carrying the big MO!

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:35 AM

She had best stay out of Texas we tend to use the M word quite a bit

Aggie95 on September 3, 2010 at 9:36 AM

Time to box-up Boxer and ship her back to the real world of the private citizen!

pilamaye on September 3, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Likely voters…that’s the key demographic, likely voters…and the Republicans in almost every race is destroying the dems in those polls.
It’s just that they are hesitant to release them because it is so one sided…

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Many people who still “approve” of Obama, can’t admit to themselves they were fooled about him.

In 2012, he’ll actually be on the ballot (if he decides to run) and then the roof will fall in on him.

NoDonkey on September 3, 2010 at 9:38 AM

Aggie95 on September 3, 2010 at 9:36 AM

In this case, and I try to use it sparringly lest it lose its’ effectiveness, the B word might be more appropriate!

dhunter on September 3, 2010 at 9:39 AM

Paleobiggovernment Era…..nice :)

cmsinaz on September 3, 2010 at 9:40 AM

Whitman and Fiorina winning would be as earth shattering as Brown winning Massachusetts.

Hope.

darwin on September 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

Boxer is a long term incumbent and she’s polling under 50% against a newcomer. I’d say smear some jelly on her cause she’s toast.

Oldnuke on September 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

On Nov 3, Boxer won’t have to worry about being addressed as Senator.

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:43 AM

If that’s true and Democrats still lose statewide races in this cycle, it makes Obama an irrelevance, and perhaps means that the state with the largest number of electoral votes may be in play two years from now.

from your keypad to God’s ears Ed. We have to challenge the conventional wisdom that states such as CA are perennially blue. the downside is that they’ll have more electoral votes than they will dollars in the bank, but we’ll put that aside for now….

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 9:43 AM

Boxer is a long term incumbent and she’s polling under 50% against a newcomer. I’d say smear some jelly on her cause she’s toast.
Oldnuke on September 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

heh..+2

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 9:44 AM

I think Brown is toast. Talk about a re-tread. Even Dems have to be thinking to themselves, “Governor Moonbeam, again? WTF?”

Regarding Boxer, when to we get the clip of Mr. Alford, the head of the Black Chamber of Commerce chewing Boxer out for some bogus NAACP letter that she tried to throw in his face during a committee hearing on climate-change legislation? It was a great clip from about a year ago. Alford is a black businessmen and military veteran, and he rhetorically shoved the letter right back in Boxer’s face. The entire scene showed how clueless Boxer really is. I’d be running that in an ad nonstop until November.

BuckeyeSam on September 3, 2010 at 9:45 AM

Whitman gets 59% of independent voters, not entirely unexpected in this cycle, but she also gets 20% of Democrats, too.

yeah, but JB will get 100% of the dead Dems at this one, Ed.

Jerry Brown is an ancient retread from the Paleobiggovernment Era in California, but not quite old enough for everyone to forget what a lousy job he did in his two terms as Governor from 1974-1982

Wow. Ed must be licking the plate after those funnel cakes or something…he’s on fire this am..Strong work

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 9:46 AM

One interesting thing from the cross-tabs. Whitman and Fiorina do largely the same in the bay area, central valley and inland empire. The real battle is in metro LA, where Whitman is doing well and Carly is quite competitive. They should stay in socal for most of the campaign. The bay area is beyond hope.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 3, 2010 at 9:47 AM

I can only hope it means that Californians are on the road to salvation…the economic kind, anyway.

Bob's Kid on September 3, 2010 at 9:48 AM

Jerry Brown is an ancient retread from the Paleobiggovernment Era in California, but not quite old enough for everyone to forget what a lousy job he did in his two terms as Governor from 1974-1982

Put this guy in something alright…like the Little Museum of the Former California Politicians where all the little kids from SF can come visit and see how evolution has worked its magic on him./

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 9:49 AM

I’d be running that in an ad nonstop until November.

BuckeyeSam on September 3, 2010 at 9:45 AM

The only thing they need to “run” is the horrible economic indexes in California.
The unbelievable loss in property value, the outrageous spending, the chasing out of major companies because of high taxes, there is no economic “good news”, unemployment at a near record high, threats of IOU’s…economy, economy, economy…and Boxer was there for the downfall, she is responsible.

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:50 AM

I think the biggest story of this election is going to be the final demise of the 1970s-era big-government liberals. It is those people, including Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barney Frank, Pete Stark, John Kerry, et.al. who ran the House and Senate off a cliff with spending and ObamaCare in the last two years. Jerry Brown is one of the poster children for this generation of liberals, who seem to believe they can never run out of other people’s money or ideas for new government programs to boss other people around and tell them what’s good for them.

Whitman and Fiorina have created jobs and run companies. Leave aside their gender – that is by itself revolutionary in this day and age of professional politicians and an entitled ruling class of butreaucrats. Rick Scott in Flrida is another one – he may be a flawed candidate but we realy, really need more CEOs and real business leaders to start running for office.

rockmom on September 3, 2010 at 9:51 AM

This state is in meltdown thanks to 40+ years of Democratic rule. About time the proles woke up.

GarandFan on September 3, 2010 at 9:51 AM

The unbelievable loss in property value, the outrageous spending, the chasing out of major companies because of high taxes, there is no economic “good news”, unemployment at a near record high, threats of IOU’s…economy, economy, economy…and Boxer was there for the downfall, she is responsible.

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:50 AM

Carly’s closing statement in the debate hammered on this. She talked about visiting a town that has a 40% unemployment rate.

rockmom on September 3, 2010 at 9:54 AM

Boxer is a long term incumbent imbecile and she’s polling under 50% against a newcomer. I’d say smear some jelly on her cause she’s toast.

Oldnuke on September 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

FIFY

Bums away!

GnuBreed on September 3, 2010 at 9:54 AM


Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer remains locked in a tight fight with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina …

Boxer going down would be the gold plated candles on the cake.

Tony737 on September 3, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Lemme guess, Brown is running on a platform of:

- More money for “education”
- Green “jobs”
- More “investments” in “immigrants”
- Legalized dope

About as fashionable as a leisure suit.

NoDonkey on September 3, 2010 at 9:56 AM

Keep running that campaing commercial… HEAVY rotation through NO-vember 2nd!!

As a native son of the Golden State, my heart is thumping at the possibility of the NO-vember election results…

Khun Joe on September 3, 2010 at 9:59 AM

Boxer going down LOSING would be the gold plated candles on the cake.

Tony737 on September 3, 2010 at 9:55 AM

FIFY… the other possibility made my brain explode…

Khun Joe on September 3, 2010 at 10:00 AM

It seems so darned weird that in a state up to it’s eyeballs with liberals, they the roll out Mr. Brown. It’s hard for me to believe they could find a handsome, charismatic progressive, or at least someone willing to play one on TV.

Cindy Munford on September 3, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Remember when California was seen as something like Toby Keith described it in the song, “Shoulda Been a Cowboy”…?

Go West young man
haven’t you been told
California’s full of whiskey, women and gold…

kind of a wistful and perverted way of looking at it but that outlook drove a lot of folks west. Now they’re rebounding back eastward.

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 10:04 AM

I’m not sure I trust Whitman or Fiorina to be any more conservative than Scott ‘Massachusetts Republican’ Brown, but I’d take them any day over the meat sacks they’re running against. I hope my old home state is finally getting a clue.

CantCureStupid on September 3, 2010 at 10:04 AM

It’s hard for me to believe they could find a handsome, charismatic progressive, or at least someone willing to play one on TV.
Cindy Munford on September 3, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Ohhhhh SNAP!

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 10:05 AM

Carly’s closing statement in the debate hammered on this. She talked about visiting a town that has a 40% unemployment rate.

rockmom on September 3, 2010 at 9:54 AM

She gets it, and the people feel it.
The loss of jobs, and home values are stats that would be hard to digest, they are so staggering.
With a nearly 30% drop in home values alone, manufacturing is down by at least 30%, and won’t recover under the laws and restrictions imposed by Ca. Ca if became a “service” state, so as long as people could afford the “services” then they were fine. But you can’t live (at least a state the size of Ca) as a service industry…they need to export. And you can’t export legal, restaurant, courier, home staging, closet design, etc. They have agriculture, but that provides minimum wages and little taxes.
They have chased away most major manufactures, and the ones left are barely hanging on.
BTW, my NC is doing the same…states run by dems chase business away, I don’t get it. Supposedly they are for the working man, then they chase the “working man” jobs away.

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 10:05 AM

Cindy Munford on September 3, 2010 at 10:01 AM

No kiddin they should have brought in John Edwards!

dhunter on September 3, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Cindy Munford on September 3, 2010 at 10:01 AM

They tried to float this guy: SF Mayor Gavin Newsom

Disturb the Universe on September 3, 2010 at 10:07 AM

Dear Ma’am, we know yer sorry…NOW APOLOGIZE!!!

BigWyo on September 3, 2010 at 10:07 AM

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 10:04 AM

GO East ladies and gents,
Californicas been found out,
it’s taken over by high taxes, unemployment and Trouser Trout!

dhunter on September 3, 2010 at 10:09 AM

“Of course, this could be a fluke, too, brought on by two very flawed Democrats.”

This ^. I don’t see much movement yet in the House races beyond a small re-reorientation from 2008.

That said, the real gauge for what CA’s direction is, though, will be what’s happening in the state races, not the federal races. So until there’s more movement at that level, California is not just leaning irredeemable, but likely irredeemable — businesses are leaving and so are the R’s and will be for the foreseeable future. A Republican governor, alone, is not going to solve that.

Dusty on September 3, 2010 at 10:10 AM

Soon it will be her former not formal title.

Wade on September 3, 2010 at 10:11 AM

Disturb the Universe on September 3, 2010 at 10:07 AM

Mr. Pretty Boy is ahead in the lt. gov race.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 3, 2010 at 10:18 AM

They tried to float this guy: SF Mayor Gavin Newsom

Disturb the Universe on September 3, 2010 at 10:07 AM

I saw somewhere recently that Mr. Newsom is realted to the Pelosi Clan, as in the son of a cousin of Mr. Pelosi or something.

Brian1972 on September 3, 2010 at 10:18 AM

It is rumored (and I’d be obliged for the footage) that Boxer actually stood on a box behind her podium to augment her height. After she and Fiorina shook hands and repaired to their respective positions, Babs Box-o-Rocks was seen to step up on something.

No matter, she’s toast because I’m on the case as of Tuesday next.

The War Planner on September 3, 2010 at 10:20 AM

This state is in meltdown thanks to 40+ years of Democratic rule. About time the proles woke up.

GarandFan on September 3, 2010 at 9:51 AM

Actually, they’ve had Republican governors the majority of the time. But the legislature was solidly in liberal control, and I mean SF Willie Brown liberal.

jwolf on September 3, 2010 at 10:25 AM

also gets 20% of Democrats

This is the pro-business part of the Democratic party who supported Newsom and who think Brown is too cuddly with the public employee unions

DaveO on September 3, 2010 at 10:31 AM

I think the real story of this election nationwide is going to be the final demise of 1970s-era big-government liberalism. These folks finally got control of both houses of Congress and a Democrat President for the first time since they came of age in the 1970s, and they went for everything in their basket of big-government dreams. Now they are going to find out the hard way that the people don’t want all this government.

Jerry Brown may be the ultimate poster child for this brand of 1970s utopian liberalism. It will be wonderful to see him lose, especially to a modern female businesswoman who has actually done more for California through her business career than Jerry Brown has in all his years of government service.

rockmom on September 3, 2010 at 10:32 AM

I think the real story of this election nationwide is going to be the final demise of 1970s-era big-government liberalism. These folks finally got control of both houses of Congress and a Democrat President for the first time since they came of age in the 1970s, and they went for everything in their basket of big-government dreams. Now they are going to find out the hard way that the people don’t want all this government.

This is at least the third time they’ve done that since they came of age and it failed the first two times, under Carter and Clinton.

With Carter, it caused the Reagan R@volution. With Clinton, it caused the 1994 Republican R@volution. With Obama, it looks likely to cause something on par with both of those, if not larger.

Of course, they won’t learn the lessons of how they ended up here by the next time this happens in about 16 years.

teke184 on September 3, 2010 at 10:37 AM

Just so nobody ever forgets… HOT AIR: The Movie!!

With a cast of thousands of AllahPundits!

JohnGalt23 on September 3, 2010 at 10:43 AM

Many people who still “approve” of Obama, can’t admit to themselves they were fooled about him.

In 2012, he’ll actually be on the ballot (if he decides to run) and then the roof will fall in on him.

NoDonkey on September 3, 2010 at 9:38 AM

I’m not aware of any polling during the Bush years that was widely reporting in regards to his personal favorability rating. I imagine it was much higher than his job performance polling.

It’s so easy to make statistics say what you want them to say. Ask the right question, leave out the data you don’t like…lazy people who don’t source their own news don’t get the truth.

Asher on September 3, 2010 at 10:46 AM

dhunter on September 3, 2010 at 10:09 AM

The cowboy song, edition 2010. perfect.

ted c on September 3, 2010 at 10:47 AM

One word “Acorn”

BruceB on September 3, 2010 at 10:52 AM

For those of us who live in California knocking off Babs would be a good thing, but keeping Jerry out is critical.

The California GOP has been something of a mess for a while, the main rule for a GOP candidate for statewide office has been ‘are you self-funded?’

Meg in particular is rather RINO but when the alternative is Jerry and a one-party autocracy in the pockets of the unions, we’ll take what we can get.

JEM on September 3, 2010 at 11:11 AM

This is great news! I agree with JEM that “keeping Jerry out is critical”. He is the quintessential hippy-dippy Progressive.

sinsing on September 3, 2010 at 11:36 AM

My wife was at a conference in Sacro this week when she heard Meg give a speech. Very impressive resume. We need more experienced business execs in leadership positions like Meg and Carly. Maybe, they will be more effective at stopping the ridiculous spending where babs and governator fell short.

jbh45 on September 3, 2010 at 11:37 AM

It seems so darned weird that in a state up to it’s eyeballs with liberals, they the roll out Mr. Brown. It’s hard for me to believe they could find a handsome, charismatic progressive, or at least someone willing to play one on TV.

Cindy Munford on September 3, 2010 at 10:01 AM

Because it’s a crappy job. The legislative assembly in Sacramento is the problem and voters are unlikely to change that. It’s the ‘hate all those guys except my guy’ problem. Any Republican governor is likely to get Schwarzenegger-ized after a few losses to them.

slickwillie2001 on September 3, 2010 at 11:41 AM

confounding many observers

Confounding: the new Unexpectedly. :)

PattyJ on September 3, 2010 at 11:44 AM

Aww, I’m going to miss all the constant California-bashing that goes on here.

John the Libertarian on September 3, 2010 at 12:11 PM

I don’t think the NRSC ad is that strong. But maybe I’m wrong.

WannabeAnglican on September 3, 2010 at 12:23 PM

For those of us who live in California knocking off Babs would be a good thing, but keeping Jerry out is critical.

The California GOP has been something of a mess for a while, the main rule for a GOP candidate for statewide office has been ‘are you self-funded?’

Meg in particular is rather RINO but when the alternative is Jerry and a one-party autocracy in the pockets of the unions, we’ll take what we can get.

JEM on September 3, 2010 at 11:11 AM

I couldn’t have said it any better.

We NEED Meg Whitman in office even if she’s questionable on certain issues like illegal immigration and the Final Solutions Act.

Go Meg!!

Conservative Samizdat on September 3, 2010 at 12:39 PM

I’m still terrified. Whitman has been airing commercials all summer while Brown has been saving his piggy bank until the end. Those numbers will probably move once we get closer to the election.

In the Senate, I have only seen one commercial against Babs, but otherwise, the TV ads are still to come.

Its early, neither is a lock, but they’re both winnable.

El_Terrible on September 3, 2010 at 12:59 PM

We Californians never learn I guess. Brown at 40%. What’s that line from Young Frankenstein about the last two times the monster got loose? Can 40% truly believe that “third time’s the charm”?

unclesmrgol on September 3, 2010 at 1:00 PM

I’d say smear some jelly on her cause she’s toast.
Oldnuke on September 3, 2010 at 9:41 AM

That’s MADAM toast to you, sir !!
;-)

pambi on September 3, 2010 at 1:04 PM

The unbelievable loss in property value, the outrageous spending, the chasing out of major companies because of high taxes, there is no economic “good news”, unemployment at a near record high, threats of IOU’s…economy, economy, economy…and Boxer was there for the downfall, she is responsible.

right2bright on September 3, 2010 at 9:50 AM
Carly’s closing statement in the debate hammered on this. She talked about visiting a town that has a 40% unemployment rate.

rockmom on September 3, 2010 at 9:54 AM

Carly is right to hammer this, but this issue will probably help Whitman more. As Governor, she could veto excessive state government spending and taxes and have a greater effect on California’s economic climate than Fiorina, as one of 100 Senators. Maybe Whitman can do what Ahnuld should have done. Ahnuld the Terminator turned into a girley-man, maybe we need a real girl to do his job.

Steve Z on September 3, 2010 at 2:15 PM

Now that her hair has grown back, Carly Fiorina is rather attractive–that photo reminds me vaguely of the late Princess Diana…

Steve Z on September 3, 2010 at 3:04 PM

There’s a background, way back, that makes the whole thing surreal.

The state Auditor has been putting together a Citizens Redistricting Commission. And it looks to be a success. At least the Legislative D’rats are trying to float a counter initiative to take back districting.

Then the bills given to Ar-noid had no “gun control” (thank you NRA) and only the most benign environment ones.

Plus there is an initiative to suspend CA’s Cap’n Tax until “better times”.

A very poorly funded Part Time Legislature initiative from last year is getting traction again. This time with better funding likely. An initiative needs min $1M to get on ballot.

And a federal judge has ruled “gays” can redefine the word marriage. Swartenwhosis and Brown (as AG) will not appeal. FYI, Prop 8 (no gay marriage) passed by almost 70%. There is a quiet anger on this.

And the city of Bell scandal keeps on giving. While LA mayor is stuck on stupid.

Bottom line: CA is likely to move GOP this year. Believe those senate and governor polls.

Caststeel on September 3, 2010 at 3:29 PM

It has become so commonplace that it is easy to miss but CA still has no budget. Projection $20B deficit. Is unlike to see one until Jan. teh Won $1B gift to schools will disappear into a D’rat hole. While districts “negotiate” with unions on “teacher evaluation”. /joke

Caststeel on September 3, 2010 at 3:38 PM

Looking at this same poll…

Lt. Governor: Newsom (44%), Maldonado (39%)

I’m no fan of Maldonado but I simply cannot believe the same voters who want to put Whitman/Fiorina into office would elect Mr. “What does a Lt. Governor do?” into a state office.

Talk about rewarding bad behavior.

The thought of this clown collecting a paycheck on my taxpayer dime is just revolting.

The Ugly American on September 3, 2010 at 4:10 PM

This may not necessarily be a fluke. Yes, clearly these are two very flawed Democrats, but they are their party representatives. In a state dominated by Democrats, these are the two that were considered their best candidates.

What does that say about their pool of talent.

azkag on September 3, 2010 at 4:27 PM