Uh oh: Miller 50, McAdams 44 in new Rasmussen poll
posted at 6:29 pm on September 1, 2010 by Allahpundit
Yeah, Rasmussen. Not PPP or Carville’s firm or some other left-leaning outfit. This is hot off the presses from the right’s very favorite pollster — and, to make matters worse, it’s of course a poll of likely voters, not registered. When PPP polled a hypothetical Miller/McAdams match-up last weekend, they found Miller up … by eight.
Dude, I’m nervous.
The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Miller attracting 50% of the vote, while McAdams earns support from 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided.
This survey was conducted Tuesday night just hours after incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski conceded the Republican nomination during a recount of the August 24 primary. Miller, a lawyer and military veteran, benefited from support from the state’s former governor Sarah Palin and Tea Party activists.
Ninety percent (90%) of Democrats back McAdams while 79% of Republicans throw their vote behind Miller. McAdams holds a 22-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
The good news: Because this was polled immediately after the concession, there are bound to be some disgruntled Murkowski supporters in the mix whose bitterness will fade by election day. They’ll come home — as long as she keeps a low profile and doesn’t start attacking Miller or praising McAdams. The bad news: A 22-point Democratic lead among unaffiliateds in this year of all years, when the GOP is poised to utterly destroy Dems among indies nationwide, is astounding. Maybe there’s some quirk of Alaska politics I’m not familiar with that makes lots of Democrats identify as unaffiliated, but if not, that’s worrisome as a sign of how far to the right Miller is perceived as being. (In fact, 48 percent say his views are “extreme” versus 42 percent who say they’re “mainstream”; for McAdams, the split is just 21/47.) With the margin for error in the campaign this small, one bad gaffe by Miller could alienate just enough centrist Republicans to put the seat in play. Unless, of course, Murkowski comes through with a big endorsement. Which … she’s refused to do thus far. Gulp.
Miller says he’s “certain that we’re going to have a unified front in the fall election.” That makes two one of us. Exit question: Time to lower expectations in Alaska? Police those dreams!
Update: A nice reminder from the Conservatives4Palin people, and cause for optimism here: Republicans tend to do better in Alaska than polls indicate.
Blowback
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You worry too much, AP. :-)
KSgop on September 1, 2010 at 6:31 PM
“Keep calm and carry on.”
Patrick Ishmael on September 1, 2010 at 6:31 PM
After the bad blood between the Miller/Murkowski camps settle down, the polling will show an uptick for Miller.
portlandon on September 1, 2010 at 6:31 PM
How man of them were right-leaning Murkowski backers who are telling the pollster they back the other guy to scare tea partiers in revenge for Murky’s loss?
amerpundit on September 1, 2010 at 6:32 PM
Murky backlash ?
William Amos on September 1, 2010 at 6:33 PM
That’s meaningless. You’re nervous about everything.
blink on September 1, 2010 at 6:33 PM
not eeyore time just yet, gotta think positive
cmsinaz on September 1, 2010 at 6:33 PM
Uh, he just got here. Give him a minute.
azkag on September 1, 2010 at 6:34 PM
Have to say that I do like when AP posts these sorts of stories, though. Keeps attention on important, though still unlikely, worst case scenarios. Eeeeeyore blogging, if you will.
Erickson’s right: We haven’t won anything yet. Can’t get complacent.
Patrick Ishmael on September 1, 2010 at 6:34 PM
Sky is blue, water is wet.
ThePrez on September 1, 2010 at 6:34 PM
Miller says he’s “certain that we’re going to have a unified front in the fall election.” That makes two one of us. Exit question: Time to lower expectations in Alaska? Police those dreams!
=====================
Have ye faith,AP!!:)
=====================
Toto – Hold the line (High Quality) – With Lyrics
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfzUv09nIH4
canopfor on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
Hmm. I see the Libertarians were polled.
Emperor Norton on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
Miller, Just stay away from the MSM maggots, and it’ll be OK.
forest on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
The press will do just about everything to get Miller elected over the Palin-backed McAdams in Palin’s home state. It’s not going to be pretty.
hepcat on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
You’d be nervous if Miller was up by 20 points. LOL
ddrintn on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
And you were doing so well yesterday AP. It’s been one day since Murkowski conceded. Keep taking those anti-Eeyore pills.
conservative pilgrim on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
You should probably relax a little, Allahpundit.
myrenovations on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
“Our guy” up by ten: Gulp! It’s close!
“Their guy” up by ten: Heartache! It’s a blowout!
innominatus on September 1, 2010 at 6:38 PM
excellent…c is back:)
cmsinaz on September 1, 2010 at 6:40 PM
And what was murkowskis rating against her? 48 – 52?
Skywise on September 1, 2010 at 6:40 PM
By fall this seat will be safe; it’s AK after all. Just let things settle down and see how pathetic the dem nominee really is.
TimTebowSavesAmerica on September 1, 2010 at 6:41 PM
One word….pork.
All Miller has to do is explain all the earmarks Uncle Ted and the Murkowskis brought in over the years has not delivered ANWR, turned federal land over to the state or helped the logging industry in the SE Panhandle.
If Alaska is an “owner state” then why is Alaska selling its own sovereignty for 100yd bridges spanning from Ketchikan to its airport.
Chrisin206 on September 1, 2010 at 6:43 PM
Allahpundit, I’m worried for your health. I’m afraid you won’t make it to November.I can’t fathom Alaska electing a Democrat, let alone one who’s own party didn’t know the name of.
sandee on September 1, 2010 at 6:44 PM
Dude, I’m nervous.
The race has just begun!
Tony737 on September 1, 2010 at 6:47 PM
Sorry she lost.
Not really.
Give me a break. Always happens after a close primary.
You are showing your RINO here is all.
Steveangell on September 1, 2010 at 6:47 PM
Trust me the dem running is an idiot. the chance of him beating miller are slim and none. THE ONLY REASON THAT BEGICH WON IN 2008 WAS THE “CORRUPT DEALS OF STEVENS”. Whic turned out not to be true
ConservativePartyNow on September 1, 2010 at 6:47 PM
Chill! Murkowski’s supporters are just in a post-primary snit. They won’t vote D, not in AK. Give Miller and his cheerleader Sarah a chance to smooze ‘em.
Chewy the Lab on September 1, 2010 at 6:49 PM
I wouldn’t worry to much about it, I keep saying that I am not voting for Rick Scott in Florida for governor but I bet in the end I will hold my nose and take the plunge.
Cindy Munford on September 1, 2010 at 6:50 PM
Maybe if he shaved his beard he’d pick up some votes.
Buy Danish on September 1, 2010 at 6:50 PM
My thought exactly!
Oink on September 1, 2010 at 6:51 PM
So…
How accurate do you suppose a poll of voters called just after the Supreme Court decided Bush v. Gore in the 2000 race would have been?
Gimme a break.
Have you ever seen a poll conducted within hours of a concession speech?
And Miller was +6.
Nov. will be fine.
cs89 on September 1, 2010 at 6:52 PM
In AR, just after the primary, Boozman was only up a couple of points on Lincoln, but now there is a difference of 40%. Miller will not lose
ConservativePartyNow on September 1, 2010 at 6:53 PM
He IS our favorite Eeyore!
I don’t think conservatives have to worry too much. You won’t see too much Eeyorepundit this time around.
Vyce on September 1, 2010 at 6:54 PM
Looks like the moronpundit rolled out of bed.
WoosterOh on September 1, 2010 at 6:54 PM
If he were the RINO you would be jubilant by this. I mean right after a contentious then mean primary. Up by 6. Nowhere to go but up from there. Only problem I saw was if she went third party but that does not seem to be the case. Think if she did it would be just like Christ and Miller would still win.
Steveangell on September 1, 2010 at 6:55 PM
Miller has himself to blame for these polls… he could have acted better during the recount period… he was full of hysterics…
ninjapirate on September 1, 2010 at 6:56 PM
Allah, all Miller has to do is get 1 more vote than McAdams. 50% is a very good start to a general campaign with no incumbent.
Murkowski hadn’t even conceded yet and 79% of Republicans had already agreed to vote for Miller. When the rest come around it should give Miller at least another 5% or so.
Rasmussen polling have been oddly negative lately. I hope that isn’t the beginning of a trend.
petunia on September 1, 2010 at 6:57 PM
ninjapirate on September 1, 2010 at 6:56 PM
Funny, I don’t remember him being the one allowing rumors to float that he’d run on another ticket if he lost the primary.
cs89 on September 1, 2010 at 6:58 PM
Remember when the DNC guy couldn’t remember the name of their own candidate?
Wasn’t that this McAdams dude in AK?
And you’re worried about him, AP?!
Puh-leaze!
AK’s a Red State and it ain’t going blue.
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 6:59 PM
Yup!
I was right!
DNC Chair can’t name Party’s candidate in AK Senate Race
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 7:01 PM
BTW, Miller had better get his biography out there…
West Point + Yale Law + Degree in Economics
He’s got this…
ninjapirate on September 1, 2010 at 7:04 PM
This is a nothing burger. Next!
WisRich on September 1, 2010 at 7:06 PM
Once the entire state electorate gets a good look at the very Lefty McAdams his numbers will tank like Rosie Odonell at the water park. I wouldn’t worry about today’s starting number.
Seriously, whoever heard of Miller before a few days ago and he’s pulling 50%?!!!
JonPrichard on September 1, 2010 at 7:09 PM
Way too early to get nervous. Miller just won and he’s up by 6. Let things calm down and then see where we are.
rjoco1 on September 1, 2010 at 7:09 PM
I think the observation about disgruntled Murkowski voters making this poll closer than might have been expected is a sound one. When the moment of truth comes and voters have to choose between a guy who will vote for Harry Reid to be Majority Leader and support Obama’s plans or someone that will back McConnell and put some brakes on Obama I predict that many currently disaffected voters will pick Miller. All he needs is 50% + 1!
Jill1066 on September 1, 2010 at 7:09 PM
Seriously. I think Rasmussen does a great job but it’s probably just a tad early to tell on this one.
Missy on September 1, 2010 at 7:09 PM
I am not worried about this race. Joe Miller is a solid candidate with a great resume. Miller ran an excellent campaign and is very strong on the issues. Don’t hold your breath waiting for him to start making gaffes.
Exit question for Allahpundit: How did you resist from asking the question of whether Palin will need to move to the background during the general election campaign?
chief on September 1, 2010 at 7:10 PM
I think Allahpundit’s view of the Alaskan political seen is just a bit Murky.
/sorry
cs89 on September 1, 2010 at 7:14 PM
I see Miller as a Palin clone and as a Palin clone he knows never to take anything for granted.
technopeasant on September 1, 2010 at 7:14 PM
In the Senate primary, some 120,000 votes were cast. Of those, 90,000 were in the Republican race.
I’m not worried.
Dusty on September 1, 2010 at 7:19 PM
This post descends into self-parody. You can’t honestly be serious.
Maybe there will be reason for concern, but a poll showing him at the 50% mark with a 6-point lead immediately after winning the nomination isn’t a reason.
BruinEric on September 1, 2010 at 7:22 PM
Send in the Young Guns.
rjl1999 on September 1, 2010 at 7:23 PM
Allahpundit, the Eeyore’s Eeyore.
Remember, polling had Joe down by 30 points in the race against Daddy’s girl.
No one even knows who the Marxist-democrat candidate is, including the DNC!
It’s Miller Time baby!
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 7:23 PM
Miller is a good candidate. If he was flaky, I’d be just a little bit concerned, though Alaska will nearly always go Republican whatever the polls forecast.
And McAdams is a lightweight.
csThor on September 1, 2010 at 7:27 PM
You know, when I said Alaksn’s were mad… I wasn’t joking.
Yet, they elected Begich. Vrs Stevens due to the fact they were P.O.ed.
Stay nervous Allah. This is going to be a wild ride for everyone…
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 7:28 PM
Mark Begich.
Need I say more?
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 7:29 PM
Well, that and the small matter of a guilty verdict in October 2008…
cs89 on September 1, 2010 at 7:35 PM
During a record Democrat wave, against an incumbent in trouble with the law and facing jail time? (I know he was innocent, but we didn’t know that in 2008).
He had name recognition as well.
I don’t know Upi, I still think Miller will win. Its if he eeks out a win or blows the dem away.
portlandon on September 1, 2010 at 7:35 PM
Quit being a damned Eeyore. Only the very stupidest of the people who read things here haven’t figured out your shtick.
Blarg the Destroyer on September 1, 2010 at 7:38 PM
which was sited and thrown out, due to bad a prosecution.
I questioned that timing from the beginning.
Port, if Miller starts pulling BS like the lawyer thing (and trust me that ticked off a LOT of people) that he pulled with Murkowski and the LT Gov…. he is going to be pulling votes out of his own hat.
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 7:38 PM
It’s his to lose now. He better have a good campaign plan.
By the way, I agree, that Lawyer crap was low bar.
portlandon on September 1, 2010 at 7:42 PM
Well, yeah, you do.
Begich would never have been elected if the DemocRats hadn’t brought up those phony ethics charges on poor Ted Stevens!
God rest him.
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 7:43 PM
Are these the same polls that said Lisa was a shoe in for re-election???
For those others sighting Begich should remember that there were (R)’s that would not vote for Stevens because they thought he was guilty and didn’t look at the big picture. If Steven’s won the election and then found guilty and convicted it would have caused a special election; allowing the GOP to find an adequate candidate to run against Begich. If this were allowed to play out the GOP would have retained the seat.
Don’t worry though; Begich will lose his re-election bid next time.
lwssdd on September 1, 2010 at 7:45 PM
Murkowski’s attempt to jump to the Libertarian Party didn’t p*ss people off, too?
And if she’d conceded last week, instead of making the state go through a big kabuki show about counting absentee votes (when it was obvious Miller was going to win…), wouldn’t that have saved the state some bucks, time and manpower, also?
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 7:45 PM
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 7:38 PM
Oh, I know it was thrown out. You’d know better than me, but many Alaskans were probably suspicious of the case.
However, if a “convicted” Ted Stevens only lost to Begich by a point or so, that would seem to indicate to me that Alaska tends to go Red rather than Blue.
The volume of GOP vs. DNC votes in this primary would tend to confirm that, no?
cs89 on September 1, 2010 at 7:45 PM
/s ??
Red State State of Mind on September 1, 2010 at 7:51 PM
True Jen.
Jen, that turned out to be a lie and no one will fess up on who said it, not even the Lib party will confess. Lisa admited she wasn’t looking to leap over… so who said it?
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 7:59 PM
Oh stop it! You are acting like a child. Begich barely beat Stevens and Stevens was about to be indicted. (falsely, as it turns out)
You are starting to sound like Moore and Beagel now.
You’re candidate lost to a superior candidate. Get over it.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:01 PM
Wasn’t it this very blog?!?
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 8:02 PM
I think the use of logic here is not going to work. Upi is on a jihad against Joe Miller. Hell, she even shut down her Palin blog ever her helping Miller out. Read into that what you will.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:05 PM
There may have been a lot of Murkowski hold outs that are not ready to switch yet but come November they will.
tjexcite on September 1, 2010 at 8:06 PM
I have no clue. I was watching the news here in Alaska about it. Not HA.
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 8:06 PM
gary.. I shut it down because no one was posting on it often enough to keep it up, or would you like me to state I was also stabbed in the back… I have no problems stating that as well. Also, I have never supported Miller. I am not going to support someone Huckabee and Ron Paul both support, even before Palin had. You obviously didn’t know that… but hey, I don’t put it past you not to know.
I dont’ LIKE Miller. If that is a problem for you.. then take it to your blog and post about it.
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 8:09 PM
If it was false, why in the hell did the Libertarian Party have a vote to DENY her the spot on their ballot?
Also, why is it being reported the Daddy’s Girl and the Libertarian Party chair are talking again?
Seems like all the drama is coming from Lisa, not Joe.
All Joe did was speak his mind when the NRSC parachuted one of their hacks into the situation.
BTW, Haily Barbour jumped in the NRSC’s stuff for doing that as well. It was wrong. The NRSC pulled out with it’s tail between it’s legs.
Also, it was Lisa’s people who were doing jicky things with ballots and calling voters. It was bad enough Campbell order the AG to get involved.
Joe was just protecting his interests.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:11 PM
Okay Gary LMFAO HAHHAHHAAAA! My own personal Alaskan news fairy!
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 8:17 PM
Hmmm, that’s not what you stated when you shut it down, but whatever.
Who stabbed you in the back?
I kinda figured you’d not supported Joe, ever. Your vitriol gave you away.
I couldn’t care less that “Me too Huckabee” or that moron Ron Paul also backed Miller. That would be like not supporting someone because that idiot Romney woke up from his comma to chime in “me too.”
Hell, even Sarah’s backing had little to do with my support.
I read the man’s bio and his positions. He has a solid record, and is most certainly going to be better for the nation than Lisa.
I can’t figure out why you don’t like the man, but whatever. However, he’s the nominee, and trashing him is just stupid. It makes you look petty.
As for blogging about it … why? The discussion is here.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:19 PM
the thing about this year is that they’re all gonna be close. but now is the chance to get our people in there. if we wanted easy wins, we could have nominated murkowski, bennet, crist, lowden, etc. isn’t it better to have some solid filibuster senators to negate grahamnesty, collins, and snowe? if we have some solids demint types, those rinos are powerless.
casel21 on September 1, 2010 at 8:20 PM
Spot on. We will never have an opportunity this good in our lifetimes. Time to clean house, literally!
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:23 PM
Gary.. I have never liked him as a judge and that was why I never even cared about the man. He was too moderate as a judge . But that is why I do not like him.
If that can’t be my reason, then why are you attacking me concerning it?
Just because I don’t like him… doesn’t mean I was FOR Murkowski. So stop, as you know I am not a Murkowski person. Never have been. Anyone who has been on HA long enough knows that.
upinak on September 1, 2010 at 8:23 PM
I am cool with the 6%. That’ll slowly grow. it’s all good.
WashingtonsWake on September 1, 2010 at 8:36 PM
The GarnetSpy is worred about Nikki Haley’s numbers and she’s 12 points ahead of Sheehen down here.
Really! Some people worry for nothing.
SouthernGent on September 1, 2010 at 8:40 PM
SouthernGent on September 1, 2010 at 8:41 PM
I always thought judges were supposed to look at the facts and the LAW. Did Joe do that?
I’m not attacking you, I just don’t get the continued attack on Joe. He’s the nominee and he’ll make a great Senator.
If the worst thing you can say about him is that he may have been a bit tempered as he sat on the court, I don’t see how that is a bad thing. Seems like “moderate” is what you need in a judge.
Again, you don’t like the guy. OK. Fine. But carrying on is just crazy.
Alaska ain’t pissed and they ain’t gonna elect the generic democrat that even the DNC doesn’t have a clue about.
Just thank God that Lisa is done, and the nation’s long nightmare is over.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:42 PM
Worrying is a sport unto itself.
gary4205 on September 1, 2010 at 8:45 PM
Miller will do just fine, if the whimsy from Wasilla can manage to stay clear of him.
AshleyTKing on September 1, 2010 at 8:45 PM
What I haven’t seen mentioned yet is the fact that as a result of Miller’s win, Republicans (NRSC) will have no choice but to spend money on that race whereas had Murkowski won, she would have won handily and not needed assistance.
Perhaps the NRSC will take a few million from Sharron Angle’s pot and put it towards Miller?..
NoStoppingUs on September 1, 2010 at 8:47 PM
But Murkowski didn’t win…and she had lots more money than Miller.
In fact, she had/spent 10 times what Miller did!
Try reading your comments aloud before you post them–they might make more sense.
Your comment was a variation of “If my aunt had b*lls, she’d be my uncle.”
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 8:53 PM
???
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 8:54 PM
AP you are a legend in your own mind when it comes to politics. Let me see this guy running Statewide in a huge Republican State and has 50% of the vote now and he had to secure just .1% to win in the next 9 weeks and his opponent has to pick up 9 points to win.
Tell ya what AP I will bet you $1,000 that Miller is the next Senator from AK. Want to bet?
Jdripper on September 1, 2010 at 8:58 PM
First you need to analyze potential voters, not just dems and Republicans.
Here is the most important question…Will the democrats show up at the voting booth like the Republicans will?
I think not, I say Republicans turn out at least 8% more voters and maybe 25% more.
So I am happy, satisfied, if the traditional polling numbers are even…we win by a landslide.
right2bright on September 1, 2010 at 9:22 PM
I don’t think Levi will show up…gee you posted something really stupid.
right2bright on September 1, 2010 at 9:25 PM
I’m not saying Murkowski ran an effective campaign. She didnt. But if you don’t think someone with $1.8 million COH versus Miller’s $84k wouldn’t need less assistance in a general election, you must have gone to public school.
If you don’t mind me asking, what campaigns have you ever been involved in? I’d love to see where your candidate turned down donations because money doesn’t matter in a campaign..
NoStoppingUs on September 1, 2010 at 9:26 PM
canopfor on September 1, 2010 at 6:37 PM
=======================
excellent…c is back:)
cmsinaz on September 1, 2010 at 6:40 PM
cmsinaz:—————–:):)
canopfor on September 1, 2010 at 9:27 PM
Let me correct myself. I see, Jennifer, that you’ve spent most of your life in art museums with other liberals, not campaigns. I don’t know how they do things down here in Texas, but for those of us not obsessed with Sarah Palin, we like to live in reality. If you’re going to be involved with Sarah’s campaign, I sure hope they teach you that Sarah having 20 million COH versus 150K will have a huge impact. After all, how would they be able to pay you to..ahem..”blog”?
NoStoppingUs on September 1, 2010 at 9:30 PM
???
What are you talking about? My Masters degrees?
Not that I need to defend myself, but I have an M.A. in Art History and a Master of Business Administration.’
I’ve been working on Republican campaigns for over 30 years, thanks for asking.
Who pays for me to blog is none of your business either.
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 10:45 PM
Campaigns shouldn’t be about money and often they aren’t, which is why I noted the cash differential between Murkowski and Miller.
The extra money, to a multiple of 10, didn’t help Lisa.
And Republicans do not choose candidates based upon how “financially viable” they are.
That’s the Democrats.
AK is clearly ready to turn Lisa Murkowski out.
And the DNC Chairman can’t remember who the Dem Senate candidate is.
If Miller needs a money bomb, I’m sure I’ll hear about it,as I did before from Todd Palin.
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 10:51 PM
BTW, Art and art museums shouldn’t be the sole purview of Liberals! It’s time for conservatives to reclaim Art for the Right, too.
Read Roger Kimball’s blog at PajamasMedia.com.
He shares this view.
Jenfidel on September 1, 2010 at 10:53 PM
Are you kidding? The Tea Party Express is already all over this deal. Just like they are Sharron Angle.
BUT, if you are worried about money, maybe, just maybe the NRSC will send money to Miller for the general, instead of backing their boy Castle against Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware primary. THAT would be a GOOD thing!
gary4205 on September 2, 2010 at 2:04 AM
It will take longer, and some diplomacy, to get the full endorsement from Murky, especially after the hysterical “she’s trying to steal the election” paranoid nonsense from some of our friends. A reminder that the left has no monopoly on idiots . . .
`
`
But once it comes, it should seal the deal. Alaska isn’t down with the socialist program of Obama-Pelosi-Reid.
Adjoran on September 2, 2010 at 6:27 AM
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