Reuters poll puts Toomey over Sestak by 10

posted at 3:20 pm on August 31, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Remember when both the Republican and Democratic Parties tried to insist that Arlen Specter was the only path to victory in Pennsylvania?  A new poll by Reuters and Ipsos puts a stake through the heart of that argument once and for all.  Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the Senate race by ten points, but Arlen Specter would be losing it to Toomey by 12:

In the latest sign that President Barack Obama’s Democrats could struggle at the November 2 midterm vote, 47 percent of likely voters said they would back Toomey and 37 percent said they favored Democrat Joe Sestak. …

When we asked Pennsylvania voters to imagine that Arlen Specter had won the Democratic primary for Senate, the figures were fairly similar, with Toomey on 52% and Specter on 40%. This suggests that the GOP has genuine momentum here outside of the identities of individual candidates and isn’t necessarily just benefiting from the fallout from the Democratic Primary (although the primary certainly didn’t do the party’s image any good, with one in seven PA voters naming ‘government, politics and politicians’ as a key problem facing the state).

Three in five (59%) registered voters say that Obama’s endorsement of Specter over Sestak makes ‘no difference’ in their decision on how to vote. Small minorities of Democrats (19%) and Republicans (15%) say that Obama’s endorsement of Specter has made them more likely to support Sestak, and just 12% of Dems say it has made them less likely to support Sestak.

Obama endorsed Specter in the Democratic primary, too.  Ask Arlen what he’s doing these days.  Mainly, he’s scrounging for a White House job since the voters forcibly retired him this spring.

The GOP leads in the gubernatorial race by 15 points to replace a once-popular Democratic governor, Ed Rendell, whose approval ratings are now underwater.  Tom Corbett gets 49%, almost a majority, while Dan Onorato only gets 34%.  Both races at the top of the ticket have become strong candidates for GOP pickups, and that’s going to have an effect on House races as well.  The voters likely to turn out in November still have a one-point sample edge to Democrats, 45/44, but the two premiere Democrats on the ticket leave 20% of Democrats cold.  That means the House races previously thought close in Pennsylvania may all swing to the GOP.

Instead of rescuing Democrats, Sestak and Onorato may turn into boat anchors, but the captain of the ship is still Barack Obama.  Reuters/Ipsos didn’t poll on his approval numbers, but with Pennsylvania suddenly turning red, can anyone doubt that Obama has big problems in the Keystone State?


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They used to say you could tell how national politics is going by looking at Ohio.

but I wonder, with the mass exodus from Ohio, if PA has become the new OH.

JohnGalt23 on August 31, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Wooohoooooooooooo !

petefrt on August 31, 2010 at 3:24 PM

Hell yeah- gonna take OH, NC, VA and Indiana back as well. Nothing defeats a liberal idea better than it’s implementation.

abobo on August 31, 2010 at 3:24 PM

This is what happens when you hitch your dingy to Captain Kickass, Admiral.

You wind scrambling for the life rafts.

Enjoy your well-earned and lucrative retirement.

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 3:25 PM

If Obama can’t hold onto Pennsylvania, he has no shot at reelection.

Doughboy on August 31, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Ask Arlen what he’s doing these days. Mainly, he’s scrounging for a White House job since the voters forcibly retired him this spring.

What would be really funny is if it comes out that the white house didn’t bribe the wrong candidate, but bribed both of them in succession, and it still blew up in their faces.

Vashta.Nerada on August 31, 2010 at 3:30 PM

Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the Senate race by ten points, but Arlen Specter would be losing it to Toomey by 12:

Wow, strong work there champ. How about some shrimp?

ted c on August 31, 2010 at 3:31 PM

Sing it shipmate!

ted c on August 31, 2010 at 3:33 PM

Remember when both the Republican and Democratic Parties tried to insist that Arlen Specter was the only path to victory in Pennsylvania?

That really says something about the “two” party system..

the_nile on August 31, 2010 at 3:33 PM

but I wonder, with the mass exodus from Ohio, if PA has become the new OH.

JohnGalt23 on August 31, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Gonna be both, this year. If Dems lose OH and PA they’re going to lose at least 8 seats. I think more like 10-12.

Missy on August 31, 2010 at 3:34 PM

That really says something about the “two” party system..

the_nile on August 31, 2010 at 3:33 PM

as well as about Arlen…

ted c on August 31, 2010 at 3:34 PM

Interesting that Reuters shows Toomey with a big lead, while Rasmussen shows Toomey’s lead narrowing (48-42 in the latest poll, 48-40 earlier this month).

Philly votes overwhelmingly Democrat, but black turnout might be depressed without Obama on the ballot. Pittsburgh and Erie tilt Democrat, but less so than Philly, while most of rural PA is conservative. Toomey needs a good turnout of Republicans and Indies in the Philly suburbs and the Susquehanna Valley to win this, but there are lots of contested House races that could bring out conservative voters.

Steve Z on August 31, 2010 at 3:36 PM

They used to say you could tell how national politics is going by looking at Ohio.
but I wonder, with the mass exodus from Ohio, if PA has become the new OH.
JohnGalt23 on August 31, 2010 at 3:23 PM

Noooo! We’re still relevant!! :-)

KeepOhioRed on August 31, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Steve Z on August 31, 2010 at 3:36 PM

You mean all of Ed Rendell’s efforts to put a casino on every other block in PA haven’t sold the voters on the wonders of Democrat rule?

Bitter clingers.

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 3:43 PM

Interesting that Toomey cracks 50% against a more known candidate. I have a feeling undecideds will either break for Toomey or probably not even show up if they are lukewarm on Sestack.

forest on August 31, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Philly votes overwhelmingly Democrat, but black turnout might be depressed
Steve Z on August 31, 2010 at 3:36 PM

Well, you KNOW the white turn out will be depressed – what with the panthers getting the “go get ‘em” okay from Eric Holder (via the Race healer Obama).

Oopsdaisy on August 31, 2010 at 3:46 PM

Steve Z on August 31, 2010 at 3:36 PM

You betcha. WB-Scranton and even York and Lancaster have been voting more Democratic than the past – especially 06-08, but I expect to see a heavy reversal – same goes for Montgomery and Bucks. This one will be 10 point Toomey win unless something big happens.

forest on August 31, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Obama endorsed Specter in the Democratic primary

…and Bush endorsed him in the previous GOP primary.

Tell me again, why’s this country all screwed up?

Akzed on August 31, 2010 at 3:57 PM

with Pennsylvania suddenly turning red, can anyone doubt that Obama has big problems in the Keystone State?

Barry has big problems in every state, and his problems are only going to get worse as the economy continues to tank thanks to his idiotic policies.

AZCoyote on August 31, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Re: Ohio, just saw this at RedState:

From Public Policy Polling, the official pollster of DailyKos:

“We’ll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there’s one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.”

Missy on August 31, 2010 at 4:05 PM

On the other hand, Rasmussen has shifted the Ohio senate race back to toss-up. Portman is still leading by 5, but the drop in support in a bellwether state is worrisome.

year_of_the_dingo on August 31, 2010 at 4:15 PM

Sestak also kindly helped the GOP by vacating his House seat. This is an easy pickup for Pat Meehan, former Bush43 US Attorney for EDPA and former DelCo DA. Meehan leads no-name Dem by double digits.

Wethal on August 31, 2010 at 4:19 PM

Anything can happen in a state where the urban centers are controlled by criminal Democrat mobs like in Philadelphia, but that’s neither here nor there.

The only question I have every time I see Sestak’s name: what the hell is wrong with our Navy that a leftist clown like this guy could rise to a senior leadership position? His brain is apparently dysfunctional; he has the logic of a junior high kid.

What does this say about the Navy?

Jaibones on August 31, 2010 at 4:20 PM

“We’ll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there’s one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.”

LMAO

Jaibones on August 31, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Remember when both the Republican and Democratic Parties tried to insist that Arlen Specter was the only path to victory in Pennsylvania?

When you start out with that sentence, why is there any need to use polls to prove anything?

That’s all I EVER needed to hear.

logis on August 31, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Jaibones on August 31, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Who was the Army General who remarked that the worst thing about Major Hasan shooting up Fort Hood is that it might “harm our diversity”?

All services are infected by this, you don’t make flag unless you toe the PC line.

General Patton wouldn’t have made Captain these days.

The Navy is about to be forced to put women on submarines, which will require a multi-million dollar retrofit for what?

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:27 PM

One thing I’ve noticed is that pretty much anything Obama touches turns into stone. It doesn’t matter what. Arlen Specter, Kadima, race relations, interfaith relations, the economy, the Olympic games, whatever it is, if the O is involved you can expect fiasco and ruin. The O boasts about increased auto sales and immediately that goes into a tailspin. His declaration of “Recovery Summer”–well, we know how that’s turning out. Outreach to Iran was followed by a near collapse of the regime. Assertion that the Surge had failed was soon followed by news of its success. The man has some supernatural power of the epic fail. If he’s on your side, you’re doomed. I’m convinced that if he comes out and endorse Osama bin Ladin, the al-Qaeda leader would just inexplicably drop dead.

year_of_the_dingo on August 31, 2010 at 4:40 PM

“We’ll start rolling out our Ohio poll results tomorrow but there’s one finding on the poll that pretty much sums it up: by a 50-42 margin voters there say they’d rather have George W. Bush in the White House right now than Barack Obama.”

Missy on August 31, 2010 at 4:05 PM

That portends well for Rob Portman, and my man, John Kasich.

JohnGalt23 on August 31, 2010 at 4:51 PM

The only question I have every time I see Sestak’s name: what the hell is wrong with our Navy that a leftist clown like this guy could rise to a senior leadership position? His brain is apparently dysfunctional; he has the logic of a junior high kid.

What does this say about the Navy?

Jaibones on August 31, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Sestak got promoted because he sucked up to the Clinton regime and an admiral ahead of him quit because he could not stand Clinton (a very large number of officers in all the service branches quit during the Clinton years – they actually ran out of colonels in the Air Force briefly.) Clinton eventually brought Sestak to the White House as military advisor and he has been a Clinton family favorite ever since. His list of donors in his first campaign for Congress read like a Plum Book in the Clinton years.

rockmom on August 31, 2010 at 5:15 PM

Speaking of polls, I see that Vanity Fair, pollsters extrordinaire, have Lindsay Lohan on the cover. LOL

Blake on August 31, 2010 at 6:20 PM

Good Lord, Sestack looks like he’s aged 20 years since the last time I saw a picture of him last year.

Damn. It’s like the picture of Dorian Grey.

Black Magic: As if I needed another reason to vote against democrats.

Jones Zemkophill on August 31, 2010 at 11:15 PM

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:27 PM
rockmom on August 31, 2010 at 5:15 PM

It’s not fair or logical to assume political consensus from a body as big and potentially diverse as the military. But given the clearly anti-military posture of a large percentage of liberal Democrats, it still boggles my mind to find leadership in the military which parrots the idiotic multi-culti nonsense that has so infected the business world.

The military is often held up as the nation’s only remaining meritocracy, but clearly the officer corps is anything but that. And nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the suicidal actions of the Army at Fort Hood, and the utter refusal to protect their own soldiers in the face of a serious threat.

The news that soldiers at Fort Hood are not allowed to carry their sidearms was stunning to me.

Jaibones on September 1, 2010 at 10:03 AM

Maybe that offer Clinton supposedly made for Sestak to serve, unpaid, on that obscure government board is still good?

kens on September 1, 2010 at 11:44 AM