Rumor of the day: Palin to headline … Iowa GOP’s dinner next month?

posted at 10:02 pm on August 30, 2010 by Allahpundit

Alternate headline: “Blogger raises traffic expectations for 2011-12 from ‘bonanza’ to ‘apocalyptic.’”

Well-placed sources tell TheIowaRepublican.com that Sarah Palin is slated to be the keynote speaker at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Ronald Reagan Dinner on Friday, September 17th. The state party is slated to release more details about the event tomorrow.

The visit would be Palin’s first visit to Iowa since making a brief stop in the state in December of 2009 for a book signing. The visit to the First-In-The-Nation Caucus state is certain to create buzz about a potential run for president in 2012.

Her favorable rating among Iowa Republicans was 58 percent as of June, but when PPP polled the state two weeks ago, she finished fourth behind Huckabee, Mitt, and Gingrich(!). The leading theory as to why? Simple: She hasn’t spent much time there yet. And now comes tonight’s news. Hmmmmmm.

Here she is on Fox Business talking about the economy, Obama’s Iraq speech, and the Beck rally. Exit question: Is the Iowa speech a head fake or…?




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I find it interesting that on the left, she is getting respect and dread as a worthy adversary to take seriously, not a joke to be laughed out the door.

On the right, Charles Krauthammer and Quinn Hillyer have been giving some respect as of late also. Even the detestable Kathleen Parker relented on the snark.

The Palin Perception is changing as we speak.

Work in progress.

Brian1972 on August 30, 2010 at 11:27 PM

Good for her, if she’s been invited. Head fake?

What world do you live in?

AnninCA on August 30, 2010 at 11:29 PM

Meanwhile, how is Mitt’s great tour coming along? *hehe

AnninCA on August 30, 2010 at 11:29 PM

She just knows how to get things done, and that’s all that matters.

The CUDA will go the extra mile required of an executive that has her act together.

Plus, there no goddamn way she’ll trot all over the globe apologizing for this country.

Metro on August 30, 2010 at 11:31 PM

The Palin Perception is changing as we speak.

Work in progress.

Brian1972 on August 30, 2010 at 11:27 PM

That is definitely true and Krauthammer definitely ate some crow the other night and had to give respect.

bluemarlin on August 30, 2010 at 11:42 PM

The Palin Perception is changing as we speak.

Work in progress.

Brian1972 on August 30, 2010 at 11:27 PM

yeap a day is a lifetime in politics. Palin had a mini cascadiing event last week. It will take many more over the next two years but bu Sep 2012 she will have 605 of the nation behind her.

unseen on August 30, 2010 at 11:43 PM

oops should be 60% not 605

unseen on August 30, 2010 at 11:44 PM

She’s definitely polishing up on the econ. I would love nothing more than to see a Palin/Ryan ticket. A firebrand and a bluestate, midwestern conservative would make the left unhinged.

cpaulus on August 30, 2010 at 11:47 PM

That is definitely true and Krauthammer definitely ate some crow the other night and had to give respect.

bluemarlin on August 30, 2010 at 11:42 PM

Can you give me a link where I can read or see this, please, blue?

Jenfidel on August 30, 2010 at 11:53 PM

She’s definitely polishing up on the econ. I would love nothing more than to see a Palin/Ryan ticket. A firebrand and a bluestate, midwestern conservative would make the left unhinged.

cpaulus on August 30, 2010 at 11:47 PM

not a big fan of ryan too many rino votes and I think would be more bush than reagan at the WH but it would balance the ticket well and give a youthful change type of look to the ticket. godd speaker also.

my bet Palin will choose someone to “heal” the party after a bitter primary fight.

unseen on August 30, 2010 at 11:55 PM

Allah, you really ought to send Sarah flowers, considering how much traffic she generates.

Missy on August 31, 2010 at 12:00 AM

As Barbara Mandrell would say, “I was Pro-Palin when Pro-Palin wasn’t cool”. I made several bets last year that if Palin is the GOP nominee, then a liberal that “begged us to nominate her” has to donate $10 to her campaign, or if not, then I donate to Obama. Those liberal trolls have become very quiet over that bet in the last two months.

jimw on August 31, 2010 at 12:01 AM

Looks like the Sept. 17th date has been “confirmed” by that Iowa website.

Yup, Sarah’s headed to Brandstead country.

Mittens…Mittens………….Beulller!!!!….

victor82 on August 31, 2010 at 12:05 AM

Looks like the Sept. 17th date has been “confirmed” by that Iowa website.

Yup, Sarah’s headed to Brandstead country.

Mittens…Mittens………….Beulller!!!!….

victor82 on August 31, 2010 at 12:05 AM

Well i wonder what fake scandal they can make up next. they got the fake poll form CBS today and the fake scandal about Brown. i would imagine the next fake scadal will be about the AK senate race…or maybe Odonnell in DE

god I hope Palin endorses her.

unseen on August 31, 2010 at 12:16 AM

She’s definitely polishing up on the econ.

Oh goody, a couple more chapters of Thomas Sowell and she will be ready to run the country. Palin has no chance and we would be crazy to nominate her. She is a valuable asset but she is damaged goods in the minds of most people.

Try to picture someone who has done and said the same things she has who was a short, fat, balding middle aged dope. Would you still want to nominate THAT PERSON?

Let’s be honest, she is average at best. I know plenty of people who aren’t telegenic or famous but they could articulate conservative principals far better than she ever could. In fact Doctor Zero is one of them. I am not saying we run Doc but we need someone who can make the case for conservatism like Reagan. Palin talks about “common sense solutions” and vague generalities.

Palin is as much a tabloid star as she is a politician. That isn’t all her fault but it is what it is. If she is the best the right has to offer, the resurgence of the conservative movement is doomed.

echosyst on August 31, 2010 at 12:29 AM

Found via Ace:

Why the GOP Should Embrace the Tea Party’s Message

by Tunku Varadarajan

But what about “independents”—won’t Palin make the GOP much less attractive to them? I put the question to John Zogby, the pollster, who told me: “It is important to be reminded just who the ‘independents’ are. Almost half of them describe themselves as politically moderate and lean heavily toward President Obama and the Democrats.” So this group, it would seem, would spurn the GOP in November, with or without a Palin thrust.

“Of the remaining 52 percent,” Zogby continued, “two in three describe themselves as politically ‘conservative’ but weary of Republicans on issues like spending, civil liberties, and the war in Iraq during the Bush and Republican congressional years. So a conservative message can win their support except they don’t trust the Republicans.”

That would, of course, be the Republican Establishment; and here, precisely, is where Palin can make a difference: I am prepared to wager that many of these “conservative independents” have some inclination toward the Tea Party and its small-government message. So staying “on message”—especially on the need for fiscal conservatism—is more likely to win their vote than a Republican lurch to the center. And since any such lurch will have the inevitable effect of driving the base to distraction, I see the GOP embracing a version of the Palin-Tea Party message.

The Palin Primaries are now behind us. Make way for the Palin Midterms.

John the Libertarian on August 31, 2010 at 12:38 AM

What world do you live in?

AnninCA on August 30, 2010 at 11:29 PM

That’s some serious burn right there. Maybe it’s sincerely time to hang up the old blogging shoes when Ann is questioning the color of your sky.

Anyway, Palin’s not running, she quit, she’s irrelevant, blah blah freakin’ blah.

The Mega Independent on August 31, 2010 at 12:47 AM

She’s definitely polishing up on the econ. I would love nothing more than to see a Palin/Ryan ticket. A firebrand and a bluestate, midwestern conservative would make the left unhinged.

cpaulus on August 30, 2010 at 11:47 PM

That indeed will be the ticket, but a far more devastating ticket would be Palin/West. But definitely, with how things are going and with the hestitancy on the part of the GOP establishment to embrace Ryan’s Roadmap. It will call for a bold presidential candidate like Palin to take it up. And what bolder way to do that than to put Ryan on the ticket if she is so fortunate to gain the nomination?

milemarker2020 on August 31, 2010 at 12:48 AM

echosyst on August 31, 2010 at 12:29 AM

Then let them step up to the plate. Where are they? Alpha males keeping ‘em down?

Yeah, I’m not going to discriminate based on looks. You can. It’s entirely your call. But Palin has earned her position the hard hay. She’s got experience, leadership, and good judgment.

Dongemaharu on August 31, 2010 at 12:50 AM

Can you give me a link where I can read or see this, please, blue?

Jenfidel on August 30, 2010 at 11:53 PM

Sorry, I did not check back earlier, it was on the panel of the news hour concerning Joe Miller coming out on top of Murkowski.

bluemarlin on August 31, 2010 at 12:50 AM

Doh, review is my friend, need to learn that.

bluemarlin on August 31, 2010 at 12:52 AM

Let’s be honest, she is average at best. I know plenty of people who aren’t telegenic or famous but they could articulate conservative principals far better than she ever could. In fact Doctor Zero is one of them. I am not saying we run Doc but we need someone who can make the case for conservatism like Reagan. Palin talks about “common sense solutions” and vague generalities.

echosyst on August 31, 2010 at 12:29 AM

Keep repeating it and maybe you will believe it.
We will do the picking, not the MSM, not the GOP, and not the dems.

We the People

oldyeller on August 31, 2010 at 1:05 AM

With all due respect, Ed was wrong about Palin and Mark Levin was right.

silverfox on August 31, 2010 at 1:28 AM

Tee hee. Cuda! If she runs I win a $50 bet. And I haven’t doubted for a second she will.

alwaysfiredup on August 31, 2010 at 3:07 AM

We will do the picking, not the MSM, not the GOP, and not the dems.

We the People

oldyeller on August 31, 2010 at 1:05 AM

Well I ain’t voting for her in the primary.

She’s not qualified. We have enough politicians out there talking the talk.

Not enough executive experience and not in a large enough state.

Knows nothing about the military.

Doesn’t know how the federal government works which is key to properly winding down or ending operations.

Quit in the middle of her last term as Governor, which is the “flake factor”, along with her life becoming a candidate for reality TV (whether or not it’s her fault, it’s an established fact).

Please do not nominate this woman. She’s a great person and I think she would make a fine RNC Chairman, but this country can not afford yet another unprepared, unaccomplished President no matter what their ideaology is.

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

Please don’t nominate this woman

**sob sob**

Please!

I beg, you…

**slobber slobber**

Please, please whatever you do, do NOT nominate Sarah Palin!

Seriously, donkey? You sound like a lib: a little desperate, a little unhinged. “Knows nothing about the military”? “Not enough executive experience”? She has a son in combat and was a GOVERNOR.

Methinks you doth protest too much.

Grace_is_sufficient on August 31, 2010 at 6:38 AM

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

If she runs, she will win the nomination.

Then, you will vote for Sarah Palin for President.

That’s just the way it is.

Brian1972 on August 31, 2010 at 7:37 AM

Doesn’t know how the federal government works which is key to properly winding down or ending operations.

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

WTF? It’s the people in the damn federal government right now who don’t know how it works and why it even exists.

The primary purpose of the federal government is to protect liberty. She is one of an apparent handful of people who understand that.

But hey, maybe you’re right. Let’s vote for people who don’t understand that.

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 8:09 AM

With all due respect, Ed was wrong about Palin and Mark Levin was right.

silverfox on August 31, 2010 at 1:28 AM

oh the memories. Yes Ed and Allah and Ace were so completely wrong. Yet for some strange reason none of them to my knowledge has admitted how completely they were wrong. The reaction to her resigning showed also the depth of anti-palin views among the chattering class. Even after all she has accomplish this last year they still think she has no chance. Which colors pretty much at least for me every post allah and Ed does. If they could be so wrong and not admit their mistake about Palin whatelse are they clueless about?

unseen on August 31, 2010 at 8:22 AM

If she is the best the right has to offer, the resurgence of the conservative movement is doomed.

echosyst on August 31, 2010 at 12:29 AM

Pish tosh! Palin is the one who has single-handedly caused the resurgence of conservatism in America. You are seeing the fruit of her labors. First Palin at the Convention, then the Tea Party. She started the ball rolling.

SilentWatcher on August 31, 2010 at 8:55 AM

If she runs, she will win the nomination.

Brian1972 on August 31, 2010 at 7:37 AM

If she does, then this country is screwed.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 9:23 AM

If she does, then this country is screwed.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Uh … we’re already screwed, so how is Palin going to screw us even more?

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 9:54 AM

Pish tosh! Palin is the one who has single-handedly caused the resurgence of conservatism in America. You are seeing the fruit of her labors. First Palin at the Convention, then the Tea Party. She started the ball rolling.

SilentWatcher on August 31, 2010 at 8:55 AM

No kidding. Is there anyone else who’s been as active and as vocal as Palin in returning to our founding principles?

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 9:56 AM

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 9:54 AM

If she wins the GOP nom (and she won’t, not even Republicans are THAT stupid), it would guarantee 4 more years of the worst administration evah!

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:06 AM

Great interview. Common sense answers for the tough times we’re in and have ahead. Alaska as do all states get money from the govt, but that money was sent to Washington in the first place as tax revenue. They are just sending some of it back to the states with strings attached.

Kissmygrits on August 31, 2010 at 10:08 AM

If she wins the GOP nom (and she won’t, not even Republicans are THAT stupid), it would guarantee 4 more years of the worst administration evah!

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:06 AM

After standing with hundreds of thousands of people on 8/28 … I know that will not happen. If Palin runs she won’t run to be president, she’ll run to restore America.

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:16 AM

If she runs, she will win the nomination.

Brian1972 on August 31, 2010 at 7:37 AM

If she does, then this country is screwed.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Meaning what? People will vote for Obama rather than Palin? Really, the country will be in such a horrible mess, but to cut off their nose to spite their face, they’ll vote for Obama over Palin. Fine. Then Americans want get as much free money as possible before our own self-destruction.

So which Republican is gonna convince enough Obama voters and independents to vote for them + get the base?

Dongemaharu on August 31, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Meaning what? People will vote for Obama rather than Palin?

Dongemaharu on August 31, 2010 at 10:20 AM

Yes, exactly. As terrible as Obama is, there is no way in the world that Palin could win a general election, even against the sad sack in office.

As for which Republican, I don’t know yet. I have yet to see a contender who I feel confident could would win. If I could choose, I would want Paul Ryan, but I doubt that he will even run.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:28 AM

Yes, exactly. As terrible as Obama is, there is no way in the world that Palin could win a general election, even against the sad sack in office.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:28 AM

You say this with confidence two years out? I think you’re going to be in for a surprise. If Palin feels she needs to run … she will win.

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:32 AM

You say this with confidence two years out?

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Confidence? I say it with certainty! She is not electable.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:33 AM

Confidence? I say it with certainty! She is not electable.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:33 AM

And when she’s nominated as the GOP candidate? Will you vote for her or sit out.

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:36 AM

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:36 AM

Just like last time, if the GOP is stupid enough to nominate the worst possible candidate I will hold my nose and vote for her. I would also know that I was voting for a certain loser.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:38 AM

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Good man. You’ll be a Palin supporter before it’s over. :)

darwin on August 31, 2010 at 10:43 AM

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 10:43 AM

JUST LIKE LAST TIME, IF THE GOP IS STUPID ENOUGH TO NOMINATE THE WORST POSSIBLE CANDIDATE I WILL HOLD MY NOSE AND VOTE FOR HER. I WOULD ALSO KNOW THAT I WAS VOTING FOR A CERTAIN LOSER

MJ:

Let me give you some reasons why Sarah Palin is NOT a certain loser:

1)And the end of March 1980 Ronald Reagan was 25 points down to Carter with 8 months to go to the election. RR appeared to be a certain loser then. He won in a landslide. Sarah Palin (SP) is nowhere close to being 25 points down to Obama now. In a poll released by PPP last month (PPP is a Democratic pollster) it had Palin tied with Obama in a head to head match up at 46-46, with Palin leading Obama 19 points among white voters (55 to 36), by 5 points with independents (47 to 42%) and 3 points among all female voters (47 to 44%). And again this is a Dem pollster reporting this.

2)Matthew Dowd a GOP consultant cited the fact at HA in the fall last year that no sitting President running for re-election has been denied re-election if his Gallup job approval number was above 51% and no sitting President conversely has been re-elected if his JA number was below 47%. And that is in 60 years of Gallup polling. Obama is currently way below 47% with Gallup and the last Gallup weekly summary showed Obama only getting 35% approval from all white voters and 39% from all male voters. The Messiah cannot win re-election with these kind of numbers regardless who his opponent is in 2012.

3)One of the key reasons acoording to pundits why Obama won in 2012 was NOT a sharp increase in the youth or Black vote as has been commonly assumed by lay people (youth vote only went up 1 point from 17 to 18% and Black vote from 11 to 13% of entire electorate)but had everything to do with the CONSERVATIVE VOTE:

a) Obama got 1/3 more of the conservative vote than Kerry in 2004.

b)almost 1/5 of Bush 2004 voters chose Obama made up primarily of conservative-leaning independents, security moms, and Roman Catholics

c) millions of conservatives who had voted for Bush in 2004 simply stayed home because they refused to vote for McCain

Now how do we know that was a huge factor? A staunch Dem at Slate said so right after the 2008 election:

“The greatest favor the white race (conservatives) did for Obama this year may have been to stay home.” Timothy Noah

And this from a right-wing blogger Tino Sanandaji:

“White turnout was lower in 2008 than 2004 because McCain could not motivate white voters (conservatives).

And from Bret L:

“Old whites stayed home for Dole and they stayed home for McCain but they turned out big time for GW Bush who was perceived as young and agile.”

MJ, if Palin is the nominee these millions of white conservatives who stayed home in 2012 will not be doing so in 2012 and when they come out in the battleground states, they will be voting for Palin, the Reagan conservative.

4)It all comes down to the white vote MJ. If Obama can only muster about 38% of it in 2012 (he got 43% in 2008)and Palin if she is the nominee in a zero-sum game can get 60% of it, she will win in a landslide, no matter if Obama retains 95% of the Black vote and 2/3 of the Hispanic vote. By the way the latter is not a certainty. In the most recent Gallup weekly summary Hispanics were only approving Obama at the rate of 53%.

In summary MJ, the reason the Left fears Palin has little to do that they hate her, but everything to do with the fact that she is a Reagan conservative and is not bound to identity politics of trying to get more Hispanic or Black votes. In other words Palin doesn’t care how she wins, but simply that she ousts Obama in 2012, period.

technopeasant on August 31, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Well I ain’t voting for her in the primary.

She’s not qualified. We have enough politicians out there talking the talk.

Not enough executive experience and not in a large enough state.

Knows nothing about the military.

Doesn’t know how the federal government works which is key to properly winding down or ending operations.

Quit in the middle of her last term as Governor, which is the “flake factor”, along with her life becoming a candidate for reality TV (whether or not it’s her fault, it’s an established fact).

Please do not nominate this woman. She’s a great person and I think she would make a fine RNC Chairman, but this country can not afford yet another unprepared, unaccomplished President no matter what their ideaology is.

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

Seriously, are you a moron?

“Knows nothing about the military”?????

She was Commander-In-Chief of both the Alaska National Guard as well as the Alaska Defense Force.

Read what Major General Craig Campbell has to say about her.

“Doesn’t know how the federal government works”???

Really, you gonna go with that huh?

She’s successfully sued the federal government, more than once. Most of the land in Alaska is federally owned. She had to deal with the feds on almost a daily basis.

The rest of your post is just idiotic.

Palin has more experience than any other potential candidate. But the clincher is her SUCCESS that goes along with that experience.

gary4205 on August 31, 2010 at 12:34 PM

NoDonkey on August 31, 2010 at 4:25 AM

Well I ain’t voting for her in the primary.

Good then IF she does and is successful I am sure you will be honest and not take credit for it…and also won’t spend the following 4 years trying to tear her down!

She’s not qualified. We have enough politicians out there talking the talk.

She has more executive AND life experience than the Current President…so in effect it may not be what you want but it would be a step up.

Knows nothing about the military.

Er, has a son in the Army, in charge of the Alaska National Gaurd and has spoken at several military events…how did you miss all that?

Doesn’t know how the federal government works which is key to properly winding down or ending operations.

You have a small point here…again Obama voting present and his life as a second rate lawyer and community organizer did not do anything for him either as evidenced by his many mis-step, angrying of the population, and disrespecting his country abroad. Also I am confident Sarah would be more likely to “try” and do what’s right (WIN), as opposed to artificial deadlines and letting the enemy know as Obama has.

Quit in the middle of her last term as Governor, which is the “flake factor”, along with her life becoming a candidate for reality TV (whether or not it’s her fault, it’s an established fact).

I agree to certain extent, but I have this nagging feeling that perhaps she sees a bigger picture…sort of like when Galadriel stated of Gandalf “needless were none his acts… we do yet yet see his full purpose”

Please do not nominate this woman. She’s a great person and I think she would make a fine RNC Chairman, but this country can not afford yet another unprepared, unaccomplished President no matter what their ideaology is.

If she went for number one is there anyone who could fill the number two spot that would make you support her? and could you accept her in the number two spot (if so who would she be best able to help/learn from in the number one spot?)

RedLizard64 on August 31, 2010 at 1:18 PM

O/T Friends of baldilocks, please visit instapundit.

Cindy Munford on August 30, 2010 at 10:39 PM

Done, will donate tonight. Thanks!

Mary in LA on August 31, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Let me give you some reasons why Sarah Palin is NOT a certain loser:

An extensive exercise in wishful thinking. See below:

1)And the end of March 1980 Ronald Reagan was 25 points down to Carter with 8 months to go to the election. RR appeared to be a certain loser then. He won in a landslide. Sarah Palin (SP) is nowhere close to being 25 points down to Obama now. In a poll released by PPP last month (PPP is a Democratic pollster) it had Palin tied with Obama in a head to head match up at 46-46, with Palin leading Obama 19 points among white voters (55 to 36), by 5 points with independents (47 to 42%) and 3 points among all female voters (47 to 44%). And again this is a Dem pollster reporting this.

Palin is no Reagan. She possesses none of his charm, warmth and ability to appeal to those across the aisle without sacrificing his core beliefs. She lacks his depth of understanding of the nature of our republic and economy. Sorry, but I if I had a dime every time I heard “so and so is the next Reagan” I would be able to eliminate the national debt all by myself.

2)Matthew Dowd a GOP consultant cited the fact at HA in the fall last year that no sitting President running for re-election has been denied re-election if his Gallup job approval number was above 51% and no sitting President conversely has been re-elected if his JA number was below 47%. And that is in 60 years of Gallup polling. Obama is currently way below 47% with Gallup and the last Gallup weekly summary showed Obama only getting 35% approval from all white voters and 39% from all male voters. The Messiah cannot win re-election with these kind of numbers regardless who his opponent is in 2012.

So now we’re going to use statistical analysis. Sorry, but Babe Ruth was hitless up until the game he got his first hit. There was no way he could have won in 2008 according to a great many statistical analyses.

3)One of the key reasons acoording to pundits why Obama won in 2012 was NOT a sharp increase in the youth or Black vote as has been commonly assumed by lay people (youth vote only went up 1 point from 17 to 18% and Black vote from 11 to 13% of entire electorate)but had everything to do with the CONSERVATIVE VOTE:

a) Obama got 1/3 more of the conservative vote than Kerry in 2004.

b)almost 1/5 of Bush 2004 voters chose Obama made up primarily of conservative-leaning independents, security moms, and Roman Catholics

c) millions of conservatives who had voted for Bush in 2004 simply stayed home because they refused to vote for McCain

And here is the heart of the Palin problem. Nominating her will alienate most of those in the center who are the swing voters. There is simply no need to push away people who would otherwise make the right choice by nominating a culture warrior. The voters you described are the ones who we will lose if she is our candidate.

Now how do we know that was a huge factor? A staunch Dem at Slate said so right after the 2008 election:

“The greatest favor the white race (conservatives) did for Obama this year may have been to stay home.” Timothy Noah

And this from a right-wing blogger Tino Sanandaji:

“White turnout was lower in 2008 than 2004 because McCain could not motivate white voters (conservatives).

And from Bret L:

“Old whites stayed home for Dole and they stayed home for McCain but they turned out big time for GW Bush who was perceived as young and agile.”

MJ, if Palin is the nominee these millions of white conservatives who stayed home in 2012 will not be doing so in 2012 and when they come out in the battleground states, they will be voting for Palin, the Reagan conservative.

4)It all comes down to the white vote MJ. If Obama can only muster about 38% of it in 2012 (he got 43% in 2008)and Palin if she is the nominee in a zero-sum game can get 60% of it, she will win in a landslide, no matter if Obama retains 95% of the Black vote and 2/3 of the Hispanic vote. By the way the latter is not a certainty. In the most recent Gallup weekly summary Hispanics were only approving Obama at the rate of 53%.

In summary MJ, the reason the Left fears Palin has little to do that they hate her, but everything to do with the fact that she is a Reagan conservative and is not bound to identity politics of trying to get more Hispanic or Black votes. In other words Palin doesn’t care how she wins, but simply that she ousts Obama in 2012, period.

technopeasant on August 31, 2010 at 11:45 AM

Completely wrong conclusions from the facts you =yourself present. Palin is a religious right culture warrior who will drive away the very voters we should be bringing in to the fold. This is precisely why she would be an unmitigated disaster. This is why we need to go with a secular conservative and tell the fundies to get with our program or stay home. These are the voters who won’t simply stay home, they will vote for the other side if pushed away from our cause! These are the voters we cannot win without, as was proven beyond all doubt in 2008.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 5:25 PM

She will be announcing her run for 2012.

Game on.

RealMc on August 31, 2010 at 5:27 PM

These are the voters who won’t simply stay home, they will vote for the other side if pushed away from our cause! These are the voters we cannot win without, as was proven beyond all doubt in 2008.

MJBrutus on August 31, 2010 at 5:25 PM

You have lost your mind.

If you have the social conservatives decide to stay home, the liberals will win. It is that simple. Without the Christian Right, which is the largest and most networked and motivated, the rest of the Right doesn’t win.

We did nominate a Republican who had a hostile history with the Christian Right in 2008, and many conservatives did not show up to vote.

That is how Obama won North Carolina. Conservative turnout was depressed, and black turnout was enhanced.

Combine that with the “Bush Fatigue” among the non-aligned voters induced by the media, and you get the election of 2008. If McCain could have matched or slightly exceeded the turnout from 2004 Bush-Cheney, The election would have been much, much closer and McCain could have won.

Brian1972 on August 31, 2010 at 6:44 PM

MJ Brutus on August 31, 2010 at 5:25 PM

I noticed you didn’t directly address my premise that if Obama only gets 38% of the white vote that Palin could get 60% and win in a landslide. It doesn’t matter how bad a candidate Palin is, if that occurs it is all over for Obama.

technopeasant on August 31, 2010 at 6:59 PM

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