Miller time: Republican leads Democratic opponent by 16 in NRSC poll

posted at 8:12 pm on August 30, 2010 by Allahpundit

A peace offering from the NRSC to the conservative base after this past week’s … “unpleasantness.” The meme du jour, per that PPP poll I mentioned earlier, is that Miller’s vulnerable in the general if he ends up beating Murkowski. Here’s the NRSC’s attempt to pour some cold water on that, even as Democrats scramble to make a race of it by rallying behind McAdams.

A new survey conducted for the NRSC shows Miller leading Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) by a 52%-36% margin. And other metrics in the Last Frontier skew the race heavily in Miller’s favor, even after other surveys show he begins his race as an unpopular contender.

Fully 57% say they want a GOPer to provide a check and balance over Pres. Obama, while only 33% want a Dem to help pass the WH agenda. Obama’s job approval ratings clock in at just 40%, while 53% disapprove.

The top of the ticket will benefit GOPers as well. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) has a wide lead over ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D), besting the Dem by a 54%-40% margin.

I’m trying to work my pessimism mojo here but even I can’t come up with a reason to think McAdams can beat Miller in a fair fight. Until Mark Begich defeated Ted Stevens two years ago, Alaska hadn’t had a Democrat in Congress since 1981, and even with a Stevens ethics scandal and an Obama wave to ride, Begich won by less than one percent. For a lefty or center-lefty to win up north, everything has to break right, and that ain’t happening this year with the big red tsunami on its way. But as I say, that’s assuming a fair fight. What if Murkowski loses the primary and then does the unthinkable by … endorsing McAdams? Remember, she gets hefty chunks of support among Republicans and independents in a hypothetical three-way race. If McAdams makes a big show of being a centrist (which he’ll certainly do, running as a Democrat in a red state), Murkowski could turn around and claim that he’s the only “mainstream” candidate who’ll “deliver for Alaska” or whatever. That would make things very hard.

Which is why, perhaps, it’s time for Miller’s people to dial down the rhetoric about vote tampering. The more bitter this gets, the more dangerous Murkowski becomes if she loses. Or have we already reached the point where it’s bound to be bitter no matter what happens next? Fox News:

Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told FoxNews.com that the campaigns have dispatched observers to all five counting locations — Juneau, Anchorage, Wasilla, Fairbanks and Nome…

But the campaigns — and their attorneys — will have the opportunity to call for a recount after the vote is certified. The recount itself is generally a tedious process where campaigns can challenge ballots over the way they’re filled out and other contentions. The process draws out even more if the campaigns go to court to challenge the state, as was the case in the disputed Minnesota Senate election in which Al Franken was ultimately declared the winner over former Norm Coleman.

In Alaska, if the race is a tie, the recount is automatic. If the candidates’ vote tallies are within .5 percent of each other, then the state will pay for a recount, though somebody has to request one.

Things could drag on for a good long while and every day that they do is a gift to McAdams. In fact, the most productive thing the NRSC can do now is try to broker some agreement between the parties that whoever loses the final count will simply concede and get out of the winner’s way (although an endorsement would, of course, be ideal). Imagine the disastrous optics of Miller trying to campaign against McAdams while battling Murkowski in court, with no one sure who the nominee is until the appeals are exhausted. Total nightmare. In that scenario, I’d be surprised if McAdams didn’t win.

Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?


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Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?

Never know. Alaskans… neva trust us.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:16 PM

Both candidates should shut up with their sniping. The only effect it has is sour people on Republicans and garner votes for the Democrats. There is ZERO that the candidates can do to change the primary, be supportive of the outcome and say you will work for the winner.

Cindy Munford on August 30, 2010 at 8:17 PM

Hot diggity!

technopeasant on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?
=========================================================

Is Delaware next for tea party upset?
Could Rep. Mike Castle, R-Del., be the next Republican establishment candidate felled by tea party insurgents?

Read more: http://blogs.mcclatchydc.com/washington/2010/08/is-delaware-next-for-tea-party-upset.html#ixzz0y8cOD5ip

==================================================

felled by tea party insurgents?

Interesting!!!

Tea Party Terrorists,or Freedom Fighters!

Ugh! My head hurts!!!!!!!!!!!!!

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

Well, first, lets count the ballots. Then we’ll see what needs to be done.

Skandia Recluse on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

Nixon could’ve demanded a recount against Kennedy in 1960. He didn’t.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

I’d be fine with an upset of Castle in Delaware. The guy is very old and very moderate. He would only serve one 6 year term at best and I would like to see some other Republican try to hold the seat in 6 years.

taney71 on August 30, 2010 at 8:19 PM

Only because Miller looks like Chuck Norris with dyed hair.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 8:19 PM

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

Can no. We had a lot of Dems who went Repub and of course the Ron Paulians who voted weird this time around.

I am just sitting back and watching. People are freaking out, I am just going whoopty doo.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:19 PM

Does this mean that Murkowski will finally except the results of the primary and start acting like an adult?

Tommy_G on August 30, 2010 at 8:20 PM

Only because Miller looks like Chuck Norris with dyed hair.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 8:19 PM

Chuck Norris dyes his hair.

Tommy_G on August 30, 2010 at 8:21 PM

Meanwhile while y’all slap yourselves on the back the MSM is running with the story about those “obstructionist” Republicans blocking a “small business” bill. Try as I might I can’t find a single conservative blog covering the Republican’s backs. H3ll, it took 20 minutes to even find out what the “real” issue really is. So once again those evil heartless Republicans get hosed in the popular press and our side barely notices. Sad. But typical.

Metanis on August 30, 2010 at 8:22 PM

“Murkowski could turn around and claim that he’s the only “mainstream” candidate who’ll “deliver for Alaska” or whatever. That would make things very hard.”

You’re assuming Murkowski’s fans will follow her like sheep, rather than being disgusted by her becoming a sore-loser. Some fraction surely would follow her, but enough to tip the election to McAdams? I’m not so sure.

irishspy on August 30, 2010 at 8:22 PM

I thought we were going to ditch the NRSC over this..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:23 PM

Never know. Alaskans… neva trust us.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:16 PM

upinak: Crazy like an Arctic Fox,eh!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:24 PM

upinak: Crazy like an Arctic Fox,eh!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:24 PM

I am not talking Palin, Can.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:24 PM

So once again those evil heartless Republicans get hosed in the popular press and our side barely notices. Sad. But typical.

Metanis on August 30, 2010 at 8:22 PM

I don’t think those tactics are as effective as they used to be. The Dems have gone to the well too often and people know it.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:25 PM

So Republicans will fight each other to the bitter end no matter what, but won’t use any and all routes to beat Al Franken. Nice.

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:28 PM

There is probably room here for some reporting on how badly Murkowski has damaged herself politically by being such a sore loser… if she moves ahead in late/absentee vote counts tomorrow, is she too badly damaged to beat her challenger in the fall?

Said another way, why didn’t she concede to Miller earlier???

IntheNet on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

I thought we were going to ditch the NRSC over this..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:23 PM

Dire Straits: They are on my third Great Grand Purge List!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

EDUCATION SEC URGED STAFF: GO TO SHARPTON RALLY

http://drudge.tw/9cPIwi

Sebelius: Time for ‘Reeducation’ on ObamaCare…

http://drudge.tw/cTAf0E

ninjapirate on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

So Republicans will fight each other to the bitter end no matter what, but won’t use any and all routes to beat Al Franken. Nice.

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:28 PM

Or Obama, for that matter. Look at the way McCain went against Hayworth and compare it to the 2008 campaign (such as it was). Throwing their own people under the bus or to the wolves is what conservatives do best.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?

The outcome of that would be like Operation Market Garden.

year_of_the_dingo on August 30, 2010 at 8:30 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

Yes, great point!

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:30 PM

See, what did I tell you earlier? People barely knew his name in the 8-point poll. 10-20 point win.

This is going to be almost as good as replacing a D with an R.

TallDave on August 30, 2010 at 8:31 PM

So Republicans will fight each other to the bitter end no matter what, but won’t use any and all routes to beat Al Franken. Nice.

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:28 PM

SouthernGent:It appears,good point!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:32 PM

There is probably room here for some reporting on how badly Murkowski has damaged herself politically by being such a sore loser… if she moves ahead in late/absentee vote counts tomorrow, is she too badly damaged to beat her challenger in the fall?

Said another way, why didn’t she concede to Miller earlier???

IntheNet on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

With roughly 22,000 votes still to count and only behing by =?- 1,700 votes..You do the math..Would you concede?

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:32 PM

Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?

Delawareans like Mike Castle enough to elect his statewide 12 times, and Delaware GOPers like him just fine.

He is going to mop the floor with O’Donnell.

JohnGalt23 on August 30, 2010 at 8:33 PM

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:28 PM
=====================================
Or Obama, for that matter. Look at the way McCain went against Hayworth and compare it to the 2008 campaign (such as it was). Throwing their own people under the bus or to the wolves is what conservatives do best.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

ddrintn: Yup,and I’ll that snipers from McCains Mutiny,
in the background,went after SarahCuda!!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:35 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

You do remember that these are primary races?..The going gets tough and the tough get going..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:35 PM

He is going to mop the floor with O’Donnell.

JohnGalt23 on August 30, 2010 at 8:33 PM

Personally I like O’Donnell..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:36 PM

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

You do remember that these are primary races?..The going gets tough and the tough get going..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:35 PM

Yeah, the time when GOP candidates campaign aggressively. Against each other.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:38 PM

ddrintn: Yup,and I’ll that snipers from McCains Mutiny,
in the background,went after SarahCuda!!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:35 PM

They certainly did.

ddrintn on August 30, 2010 at 8:39 PM

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:18 PM

am just sitting back and watching. People are freaking out, I am just going whoopty doo.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:19 PM

upniak: Rino’s to the Left,LINO’s to the Right,and Double-
Agents in the middle!!(sarc).:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:41 PM

What if Murkowski loses the primary and then does the unthinkable by … endorsing McAdams?

Dede, meet Lisa. She’s also finished as a Republican.

disa on August 30, 2010 at 8:42 PM

Exit question: Are we headed for this in Delaware soon too?

I had the pleasure of driving through Delaware this Summer. The only thing political I saw was a plank nailed to a tree with this website address on it.

Kafir on August 30, 2010 at 8:44 PM

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:24 PM
========================
I am not talking Palin, Can.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 8:24 PM

upinak:Good lord,I was thinking,Alaskians,crazy like Rommel,
not Cuda reference*wink-wink*!!!:)

canopfor on August 30, 2010 at 8:45 PM

“I’m trying to work my pessimism mojo here…..”

And you’re one of the best at this. There’s still nothing in Allah’s argument that supports Miller losing a 16 point lead, unless Miller himself does something disaterous. Turnout will remain the same.

Rovin on August 30, 2010 at 8:47 PM

Tommy_G on August 30, 2010 at 8:21 PM

I don’t think you have to dye fake hair.

Cindy Munford on August 30, 2010 at 8:47 PM

AP, did Meggie Mac come around or something, this is like two or three posts,TODAY, where you could not muster eyeore!:)

I like it.

bluemarlin on August 30, 2010 at 8:48 PM

Said another way, why didn’t she concede to Miller earlier???
IntheNet on August 30, 2010 at 8:29 PM

Because Alaskans and America owe homage to the Murkowski dynasty.

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 8:50 PM

Personally I like O’Donnell..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:36 PM

That’s not a statement on the quality of Christine O’Donnell as either a person or a conservative. That is merely a statement based on a realistic look at Delaware politics.

JohnGalt23 on August 30, 2010 at 8:52 PM

If Murkowski turns around and endorses them Dem, ala Dede, it will be proof positive that she absolutely positively had to be retired.

clement on August 30, 2010 at 8:53 PM

JohnGalt23 on August 30, 2010 at 8:52 PM

I hear you..I’m sure you are right..I was just saying that I like O’Donnell..that is all..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:57 PM

Would you concede?

Dire Straits

For the good of the party yes; but the selfishness of politicians, as exemplified by Murkowski, probably renders that decision a moot point.

IntheNet on August 30, 2010 at 9:00 PM

I don`t think she will endorse McAdams as her family is way to invested in the GOP. I am personally rooting for Miller but even if Lisa wins I think she has received a powerfull message from Alaskans. Hopefully the NRSC is honest this time around and will stay out of primaries. Cornyn is a big disappointment to me as he is my Senator. I hope everyone wrote some nasty grams like I did.

bluemarlin on August 30, 2010 at 9:00 PM

Alaska could recall Begich right? They should, so we can snag another seat. He ran as a moderate, he lied, that is grounds for a recall.

Daemonocracy on August 30, 2010 at 9:04 PM

He should do something about his beard — either grow it or shave it. He looks like Fred Flintstone.

scrubjay on August 30, 2010 at 9:06 PM

Which is why, perhaps, it’s time for Miller’s people to dial down the rhetoric about vote tampering. The more bitter this gets, the more dangerous Murkowski becomes if she loses.

Agreed – the NRSC is out of the mix (it appears) … so the ball is in Murk’s court. If she wants to be an arse she can and it’ll work against her – but for the moment, chill out.

HondaV65 on August 30, 2010 at 9:07 PM

HondaV65 on August 30, 2010 at 9:07 PM

My..My.. Dialing it back a notch ..I totally agree..:)

PS..Should we ditch the NRSC over this?..

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 9:15 PM

HondaV65 on August 30, 2010 at 9:07 PM
My..My.. Dialing it back a notch ..I totally agree..:)
PS..Should we ditch the NRSC over this?..
Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 9:15 PM

So DS, why the continued emphasis in this thread on ditching the NRSC? Have not followed you in other threads, what’s up?

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 9:27 PM

Will we ever have cohesion amongst us?

hawkman on August 30, 2010 at 9:28 PM

What if Murkowski loses the primary and then does the unthinkable by … endorsing McAdams?

Honestly AP, you need to get a grip on yourself.

The Murkowski family is long-time died in the wool REPUBLICAN. Lisa is very much daddy’s girl. She won’t trash the family’s legacy or current/future friendships or prospects.

csThor on August 30, 2010 at 9:29 PM

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 9:27 PM

Just trying to get the heartbeat of everyone.. That is all..:)

PS..You are right ..I’ll back down..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 9:33 PM

DS @ 9:33: One man’s iconoclast is another’s agent provocateur.

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 9:42 PM

I’m trying to work my pessimism mojo here but even I can’t come up with a reason to think McAdams can beat Miller in a fair fight.

c’mon AP, there’s a Democrat involved…..ain’t no such thing as a fair fight.

ted c on August 30, 2010 at 9:49 PM

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 9:42 PM

You must have missed the other posts on this subject..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 9:50 PM

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 9:42 PM
You must have missed the other posts on this subject..:)
Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 9:50 PM

Lol, guilty as charged! Out of the context of the other posts, you sound like a staffer. :)

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 10:02 PM

So Republicans will fight each other to the bitter end no matter what, but won’t use any and all routes to beat Al Franken. Nice.

SouthernGent on August 30, 2010 at 8:28 PM

Just a second I need to go pound my head against the wall.

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 10:05 PM

Lol, guilty as charged! Out of the context of the other posts, you sound like a staffer. :)

obladioblada on August 30, 2010 at 10:02 PM

No staffer here..just wondering why everyone hit the panic button over this race is all..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 10:11 PM

BTW, from what I’ve read there are probably 10,000 actual votes to count, so Murkowski needs about a 60/40 break. My guess is, they will break about 60/40 — for Miller.

Miller had all the energy of the Tea Party. Those are probably the people who would bother to fill out the forms to vote absentee.

TallDave on August 30, 2010 at 10:32 PM

No staffer here..just wondering why everyone hit the panic button over this race is all..:)

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 10:11 PM

The recent past history of Cornyn, and McConnell throwing their weight around early in primaries the last couple of years to get who they want into the general is why people reacted so negatively, smelled like a RINO protection racket.

The reaction from the base has probably steered the thinking about how to proceed at the NRSC the last few days.

Miller said he talked to Cornyn directly Saturday, and was assured that no one from DC was taking sides. That may not have happened without the instant anger that they started feeling on Capitol Hill from the lawyer hitching a jet to Anchorage.

Served a constructive purpose.
They won’t listen to us if we don’t say anything.

Brian1972 on August 30, 2010 at 10:57 PM

SCRUFF means TUFF. Sorry lady, you ain’t got it.

leftnomore on August 30, 2010 at 11:11 PM

Dire Straits on August 30, 2010 at 8:36 PM

I like Christine O’Donnell too! Castle co-sponsored DISCLOSE. He needs to go!

margategop517 on August 31, 2010 at 12:44 AM

I think the Miller vote is clearly an anti ruling class vote and if the incumbant does not lose gracefully, it will just piss off the voters even more and Miller will be stronger in November, not weaker. They learned their lesson about complacency with the MN Senate race debacle in 08.

karenhasfreedom on August 31, 2010 at 3:01 AM

This guy HAS to buy some khakis. I don’t want to live in a nation that elects guys who think jeans EVER go with blazers and ties.

TheBlueSite on August 31, 2010 at 4:18 AM

Brian1972 on August 30, 2010 at 10:57 PM

I see your point..:)..:)

Dire Straits on August 31, 2010 at 4:53 AM

I like Christine O’Donnell too! Castle co-sponsored DISCLOSE. He needs to go!

margategop517 on August 31, 2010 at 12:44 AM

Good point!..But I liked Chuck Devore too..:)

Dire Straits on August 31, 2010 at 4:55 AM