Gallup: GOP takes historic 10-point lead on generic ballot

posted at 5:07 pm on August 30, 2010 by Allahpundit

I keep thinking that people like Mark Halperin are crazy to believe that Republicans could pick up as many as 60 seats. Then I see generic-ballot polls like this don’t know what to think. Sky’s the limit?

I’m going to hit you with a little healthy eeyorism in a moment, but first, groove on these numbers. Especially the spread among indies and on the question of enthusiasm.

To put this in perspective, until this month, the biggest lead the GOP had held in the history of Gallup’s polling was … five points. Why the eeyorism, then? Well, (a) Rasmussen has new generic ballot numbers out today too and the GOP’s actually lost a few points since last week, driving them down to their smallest lead since mid-July. Not sure how to square that with Gallup, especially since Ras polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters. The enthusiasm gap should mean a bigger spread among the former than the latter (and until today, it has), and if Gallup’s numbers are merely a reaction to last week’s dismal economic news, it’s surpassingly strange that the same reaction isn’t showing up in Rasmussen. Also, (b) Gallup’s generic-ballot polling has already produced one freaky outlier this summer. Granted, today’s numbers are more credible because they’re part of a trend, but read this Jay Cost piece about how bouncy Gallup’s numbers have historically been at times. Hmmmm.

For your viewing pleasure, here’s MSNBC and Newsweek teaming up this morning to give the left a pep talk. You trust Newsweek’s numbers, don’t you? Sucker! Click the image to watch.


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Great, kid! Don’t get cocky.
– Han Solo

Mary in LA on August 30, 2010 at 5:10 PM

Historic!

Unprecedented!

Unexpected!

UltimateBob on August 30, 2010 at 5:10 PM

The Democratic Apocalypse is here.

Lance Murdock on August 30, 2010 at 5:11 PM

I kind of believe Gallup more than Rasmussen right now, and not just because I like Gallup’s numbers better.

The Gallup results just appear to be more inline with projections from people like Halperin and Cook.

But who knows.

amerpundit on August 30, 2010 at 5:11 PM

A lot can still happen between now and election day. Will the GOP win big? Probably. Will they win big enough to turn Obama into a lame duck for his last 2 years? I hope so.

We’ll see.

Yakko77 on August 30, 2010 at 5:11 PM

So … No Humpbot, then? I was kinda hopin’…

The Lone Platypus on August 30, 2010 at 5:11 PM

38% blame Bush for the economy, 19% blame Obama

Gee, I wonder why with the MEDIA helping to nurture the meme and the president of the United States still blaming Bush for the economy as recent as today?
Never mind that the House controls the purse and has been under in control of Congress since January 2007; about the same time the economy began to plummet.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 5:12 PM

The GOP cant win alone by being anti Democratic. It must be pro American.

This is why we need the Tea Party. To remind the GOP that business as usual is not acceptible.

William Amos on August 30, 2010 at 5:12 PM

Change.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Obama spent all summer on vacation and the first day back he tells us about mythical stuff plastered to his forehead. I’m beginning to wonder if he’s lost his mind – like Howard Hughes.

faraway on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Count it!

lorien1973 on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

This is why we need the Tea Party. To remind the GOP that business as usual is not acceptible.

William Amos on August 30, 2010 at 5:12 PM

Absolutely. Some media and political folks keep saying the Tea Party is GOP. Well, let the GOP win and continue to govern as they have and that fallacy will be proven wrong pretty quick.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 5:14 PM

NOT unexpectedly, for a change…except to those who have caused so much use of the word unexpectedly.

MarkT on August 30, 2010 at 5:14 PM

More. Faster.

faraway on August 30, 2010 at 5:15 PM

What the hell is that 38% blame Bush and only 19% blame Obama for the economy crap?

Oh that was a poll conducted at the MSNBC newsroom – never mind.

ghost707 on August 30, 2010 at 5:16 PM

70+

Vashta.Nerada on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

Count it!

lorien1973 on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Cue crr6, weeping on its linoleum floor with a bottle of Valu-Rite Gin and an Obarfy blow-up doll.

Good Solid B-Plus on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

We are going for the record now. 131 seats.

Rocks on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

Oh that was a poll conducted at the MSNBC newsroom – never mind.

ghost707 on August 30, 2010 at 5:16 PM

Sadly, that part is probably pretty close. Surprising how many people buy the narrative that Bush caused this crisis.

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

A little help on the polls…they go up, they go down…on the whole they mean squat…hope that helps.

winston on August 30, 2010 at 5:19 PM

117 or bust, but something doesn’t feel right… just gotta get everyone you know that leans our way to vote…. and vote twice!

El_Terrible on August 30, 2010 at 5:19 PM

While a lot can still happen before election day, since the highest GOP generic ballot was 5 percent and resulted in 50 seat swing, could we get eighty to a hundred seat swing to repubs with ten percent positive? Indeed, the generic balloting has always shortchanged repubs by up to three percent, so are we talking about a potential 13 point favorability rating for repubs on the generic ballot? And how many seats could that entail? Sounds like the popcorn will be sold out on election night for repubs (and the arsenic and maalox will be sold out for the dems).

eaglewingz08 on August 30, 2010 at 5:20 PM

The Democrats chickENS…..are coming HOME….to rooooooooost.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 30, 2010 at 5:20 PM

AllaP, I respectfully request holding off on the “Waterloo?” tag. We saw it enough when it looked like Obamacare was going down in flames. As I recall it had the same effect as reminding a pitcher that he’s throwing a no-hitter, in the 9th inning.

rihar on August 30, 2010 at 5:20 PM

More. Faster.

faraway on August 30, 2010 at 5:15 PM

Yep- Nov 2 cannot come soon enough

Throw da bums out

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 5:21 PM

Change.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Hope.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 30, 2010 at 5:21 PM

I clicked on the video and all I heard was BOOOOOOOOOSH!!

Blake on August 30, 2010 at 5:21 PM

Cue crr6, weeping on its linoleum floor with a bottle of Valu-Rite Gin and an Obarfy blow-up doll.

Good Solid B-Plus on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

Screw the Obarfy doll. She prefers the straw man.

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 5:22 PM

Change.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 5:13 PM

Hope.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 30, 2010 at 5:21 PM

Alrighty Cwac, no going Obamistic on this now. Let us keep this in perspective! Hope is how we got into this mess.

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 5:23 PM

Shazam!

orfannkyl on August 30, 2010 at 5:23 PM

Just watch us screw this up.
/GOP

ted c on August 30, 2010 at 5:23 PM

I don’t know if any of you are watching beck right now. He has summarily deconstructed the MSM.

ted c on August 30, 2010 at 5:24 PM

I am not worried about the midterms.

I am worried about what comes after.

sharrukin on August 30, 2010 at 5:25 PM

george will was saying yesterday that the polls are in fact nowhere near capturing voter intensity, as evidenced by the Alaska Repub primary. God I hope he’s right. Going to look for clip now

sbvft contributor on August 30, 2010 at 5:25 PM

Quick, someone interview Michael Steele, that’ll help us.

El_Terrible on August 30, 2010 at 5:26 PM

No, it’s the “Democraps’ chicKKKens are coming HOME to roooost!”

eaglewingz08 on August 30, 2010 at 5:26 PM

Cemeteries being canvassed by demorat volunteers at this very moment.

The Sta-Puff marshmallow man, Pookie McTookie, and the Cowboys O-line will definitely be voting for someone somewhere, perhaps more than once.

Bishop on August 30, 2010 at 5:26 PM

My conservative estimate is 60 in the House, 8 in the Senate. When I am feeling good, it’s 80/10 for control of both houses.

Either way we take the House.

Missy on August 30, 2010 at 5:26 PM

Ueberliberal Al Hunt says the Senate is now in play.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2010 at 5:28 PM

Yes we can!!!

Terrye on August 30, 2010 at 5:29 PM

Pookie McTookie

Thanks for the laughs, Bishop.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2010 at 5:30 PM

The tea Party needs to keep reminding the GOP Beltway crowd that 2012 won’t be that far away. First clue will be if they resume porking. Incumbents need to feel eyes from every dirction and opposition should be loud and constant if they backslide.

a capella on August 30, 2010 at 5:31 PM

According to Gallup’s website, 1994 gave the Repub. a 1 point advantage in the generic polling and I remember the MSM being shocked at the number of house seats the Dems lost that year. Break out the popcorn, this is going to be fun!

bopbottle on August 30, 2010 at 5:31 PM

I love how the Newsweak reporter sneers his way through the entire interview.

Kensington on August 30, 2010 at 5:31 PM

2 months til the elections… an eternity and don’t think for a second that Obama and Pelosi won’t be pulling out all the stops once congress is back in session after Labor Day.

Skywise on August 30, 2010 at 5:32 PM

“But Barack Obama is the cotton-pickin’ president, dammit!”* –Rick Sanchez

*Paraphrased… but not much.

Abby Adams on August 30, 2010 at 5:33 PM

Ueberliberal Al Hunt says the Senate is now in play.

Schadenfreude on August 30, 2010 at 5:28 PM

Does that surprise you? ;)
(not the Al Hunt part)

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 5:34 PM

Oh, how I hope we take the Senate (long shot I know). I’d rather take 30 seats in the House and 10-12 in the Senate…

El_Terrible on August 30, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Come on, AP. Please show the picture of the clown in chief studying for his umbrella finals [on Drudge]. And moochelle is getting ready for ‘tip off’.

lukespapa on August 30, 2010 at 5:36 PM

Other interesting numbers: Chrissie Matthews just reported that despite estimates for Glenn Beck’s rally from 300,000 to 500,000 that “CBS News is officially reporting 80,000 based on their research.”

Marcus on August 30, 2010 at 5:39 PM

upinak on August 30, 2010 at 5:23 PM

No. Really hope for the future. Hope that real people are seeing past this blank canvas of a POTUS. Hope that we can start to right the ship from the disastrous left turns this administration has thrust upon us. Hope that we can get this debt under control. Hope that my daughter has a better life than my wife and I have provided for her.

“If there must be trouble, let it be in my day, that my child may have peace”

–T. Paine

Hope for real peace.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 30, 2010 at 5:40 PM

Other interesting numbers: Chrissie Matthews just reported that despite estimates for Glenn Beck’s rally from 300,000 to 500,000 that “CBS News is officially reporting 80,000 based on their research.”

Marcus on August 30, 2010 at 5:39 PM

They wouldn’t know 80000 if it hit them in the ass

My guess 200-300 k based on several estimates. 80k is a joke.

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 5:45 PM

AP’s eeyorism is going to be sorely tested over the next two months.

GnuBreed on August 30, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Chicago is out?! Chicago is out?!

Christien on August 30, 2010 at 5:51 PM

I can’t remember what the polls were in 1994, or the mood, but this seems momentous.

I think we may win this final showdown with statism.

PattyJ on August 30, 2010 at 6:04 PM

The GOP cant win alone by being anti Democratic. It must be pro American.

This is why we need the Tea Party. To remind the GOP that business as usual is not acceptible.

William Amos on August 30, 2010 at 5:12 PM

True enough; but in case you haven’t noticed the GOP is having its own problems with its own voters. The people are bound and determined to take the party over from the good old Boys and Girls. I think that this year, in the long run, it will be good not to be a Democrat. The folks are not at all happy with the crap that has been happening since the last election.

whbates on August 30, 2010 at 6:09 PM

I keep thinking that people like Mark Halperin are crazy to believe that Republicans could pick up as many as 60 seats. Then I see generic-ballot polls like this don’t know what to think. Sky’s the limit?

I’m guessing 50 in the House and 8 in the Senate.

Tav on August 30, 2010 at 6:09 PM

My guess 200-300 k based on several estimates. 80k is a joke.

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 5:45 PM

MFM following Alinsky.

11. “If you push a negative hard and deep enough, it will break through into its counterside.

13. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.

Dr.Cwac.Cwac on August 30, 2010 at 6:15 PM

The Democrat media/pollsters are suddenly all making a big deal about how huge the Republican wins are going to be. Which is very uncharacteristically honest for the left wing media. Which means, I think, that they are:
1. Trying to rouse their base, and
2. trying to raise expectations so high that when Republicans dont do as well as all the predictions, they can paint it as a failure.

American Elephant on August 30, 2010 at 6:17 PM

You trust Newsweek’s numbers, don’t you? Sucker!

I wouldn’t bet a single thin $ on them numbers…

hadta say it..

ted c on August 30, 2010 at 6:21 PM

Why the eeyorism, then? Well, (a) Rasmussen has new generic ballot numbers out today too and the GOP’s actually lost a few points since last week, driving them down to their smallest lead since mid-July. Not sure how to square that with Gallup, especially since Ras polls likely voters and Gallup polls registered voters.

AP,

I respectfully think you’re getting wrapped around the axle here. Step away from the keyboard, get up, and go out and take a walk.

Ras went from a bulge of 9-10 points 7 back to 6 points and it appears to be hovering around 5-8 points before that. Methinks you are getting worked up over statistical noise.

At this date and the way things are going, it’s kinda like leading the final game of the World Series by either 8-2 or 8-3 going into the 9th inning with the bottom of the opponent’s order coming up.

Not to sound over confident, but anything over 40 in the house and 4-8 seats in the senate is a message and leaves the Dems feeling as though they dodged the bullet. A massive wipe-out (both houses lost) creates a feeling of lassitude for conservatives — just when we should be re-tooling for the NEXT two years’ campaign.

The War Planner on August 30, 2010 at 6:24 PM

Wait a minute they segued from Obama’s approval numbers to the Dems. That isn’t the same thing, but maybe I;m obtuse.

Anyway, Gallup got their rear ends chewed after the 10 point gap poll, so they massaged the next poll to come up with another number. After all the Dems are paying aren’t they? Maybe they are just ‘influencing’ Gallups polls. /sarc

JimP on August 30, 2010 at 6:37 PM

Mary in LA on August 30, 2010 at 5:10 PM

heh

cmsinaz on August 30, 2010 at 6:39 PM

carbon_footprint on August 30, 2010 at 5:12 PM

msdnc also showed just ‘thousands’ attended the beck rally, trying to tone down the huge success of it…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2010 at 6:40 PM

I saying 100+ seats

unseen on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM

Waterloo…didn’t I hear that on health reform? Chickens eggs and counting before they are hatched.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM

GOP enthusiasm? Let me put it this way… WEEKS ago I put in for a vacation day for the day AFTER election day! I want to stay up ALL.NIGHT.LONG and watch the returns and I want to watch MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and laugh my hiney off. Then of course I will sleep in on Wednesday.

I’m just brimming with excitement! :)

Oink on August 30, 2010 at 6:42 PM

msdnc also showed just ‘thousands’ attended the beck rally, trying to tone down the huge success of it…

cmsinaz on August 30, 2010 at 6:40 PM

They can tone it down all they want. The truth is LOTS of people went. Lots more wish they could have gone and hardly anyone watches MSNBC anyway. They’re just trying to pacify themselves.

Oink on August 30, 2010 at 6:43 PM

ninjapirate on August 30, 2010 at 6:32 PM

Too funny, I’m glad the host said he dances like a white guy because I sure was thinking it.

Cindy Munford on August 30, 2010 at 7:02 PM

You know, it’s time to discount the media, all of them, and just do what we have to do.

tarpon on August 30, 2010 at 7:03 PM

On November 2, 2010 America will issue its Decree against Progressivism, Socialism and Communism.

To the Democrats/Socialist/Progressives We The People Will Say, In Unison:

No, You Won’t
No, You Din’t
Now, get Off our Lawn.

Key West Reader on August 30, 2010 at 7:09 PM

Waterloo…didn’t I hear that on health reform? Chickens eggs and counting before they are hatched.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM

Be of good cheer, my dear Harry. The Progressive/Socialist/Communist movement that infected the Democrat party of my father and the Republican party of my mother will be catapulted out of office on 11/2/10. Not out of existence, just out of Washington.

:::Ping:::! Buh-bye, have a nice flight, and thanks for Awakening the American People. Buh-bye, have a nice flight, and thanks for Awakening the American People. Buh-bye, have a nice flight, and thanks for Awakening the American People.

/Spoken like a Flight Coordinator Attendant. Where’s Tony 737?

Key West Reader on August 30, 2010 at 7:13 PM

“I’ve been operating under the assumption that the reason Obama devotes so much time and energy to shouting at the rain was that he simply didn’t get it. Well, I was wrong. Obama’s problem isn’t that he doesn’t get it. Obama’s problem is that he can’t sell it! We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Barack Obama is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things and two things only: making you afraid of it and telling you who’s to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections.”

mrt721 on August 30, 2010 at 7:19 PM

Cue crr6, weeping on its linoleum floor with a bottle of Valu-Rite Gin and an Obarfy blow-up doll.

Good Solid B-Plus on August 30, 2010 at 5:18 PM

ROFLMAO!!!!!

capejasmine on August 30, 2010 at 7:26 PM

Rick Sanchez referred to Barack Obama as the “cotton picking president” on CNN Monday.

crash72 on August 30, 2010 at 7:30 PM

Soetoro is the ghey.

BHO Jonestown on August 30, 2010 at 7:49 PM

GOP enthusiasm? Let me put it this way… WEEKS ago I put in for a vacation day for the day AFTER election day! I want to stay up ALL.NIGHT.LONG and watch the returns and I want to watch MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN and laugh my hiney off. Then of course I will sleep in on Wednesday.

I’m just brimming with excitement! :)

Oink on August 30, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Me too – put in for it several weeks ago.

PatMac on August 30, 2010 at 7:50 PM

Waterloo…didn’t I hear that on health reform? Chickens eggs and counting before they are hatched.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM

You do realize that battle is far from over right?

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 8:04 PM

Chickens eggs and counting before they are hatched.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM

What is your native language?

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 8:04 PM

Rick Sanchez referred to Barack Obama as the “cotton picking president” on CNN Monday.

crash72 on August 30, 2010 at 7:30 PM

Stinkin’ racist!

rihar on August 30, 2010 at 8:30 PM

Chickens eggs and counting before they are hatched.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 6:41 PM
What is your native language?

CWforFreedom on August 30, 2010 at 8:04 PM

? It’s just becoming too…self congratulatory. It’s beginning to look like the moment before one takes that giant leap and realizes that there is no net.

2 months before the next election and Washington fatcats are redecorating their offices.

There will be no house or Senate takeover. The Democratic party when backed into a corner will fight.

And right now all I see are people wandering around planning on what they will do when they “almost” certainly will win.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 9:00 PM

Barnhardt: Tell me, Hilda, does all this frighten you? Does it make you feel insecure?
Hilda: Yes, sir, it certainly does.
Barnhardt: That’s good, Hilda. I’m glad.

J_Crater on August 30, 2010 at 9:14 PM

And right now all I see are people wandering around planning on what they will do when they “almost” certainly will win.

harry on August 30, 2010 at 9:00 PM

I want to whip the stupid totalitarians who rammed through all that crap…. I want them to go home and hide in shame the rest of their lives!

But I agree Harry. It is really hard to believe we aren’t being snookered somehow.

I don’t doubt the enthusiasm on our side, but Obama won by a large margin. Did that just evaporate?

And the Dems steal elections, they have for years! That is why Rs have to be a couple of points ahead to just squeak by, there is always the ACORN type votes to overcome. Now when they have all the power in the world they aren’t going to steal the elections?

I just want not to turn a really good showing into a defeat by expecting way too much.

But I hope to high heaven that we cream them!

petunia on August 30, 2010 at 9:15 PM

What is the lisping Newsweek swell going to do in his next career? Party favors for Bowney Fwank?

Jaibones on August 30, 2010 at 10:18 PM

Impressive poll, but I am still dubious about taking the House. There is just no overestimating how difficult it is to flip the House. House incumbents (frequently aided by gerrymandered districts) enjoy extraordinarily high re-election rates. Even when voters tell pollsters they despise Congress in generic polls, they’ll still vote for their specific representative who is often the conduit by which federal services are delivered or expedited to individuals, municipalities, and businesses in the district. House elections are almost always “local” (in the Tip O’Neill sense). In the almost 100 years since we have been been electing Senators directly (only since the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913) the House of Representatives has never flipped majorities unless the Senate flipped first or at the same time. If conventional wisdom is correct and the Republicans take the House but not the Senate, it would be an historic first… Soooo either the GOP takes both, or they take the Senate and fall just short on the House.

My complete analysis here: 10 in ’10

mw on August 31, 2010 at 12:59 PM