Iowa poll: Huckabee 22, Romney 18, Gingrich 14, Palin 11

posted at 5:01 pm on August 16, 2010 by Allahpundit

I had to post it, just because one of my guilty pleasures in blogging is the entertaining groaning in the comments whenever there’s a poll showing Huck doing well.

Can you feel the momentum?

The poll shows that the 2012 contest is going to begin right where the 2008 Iowa Caucuses left off, with Mike Huckabee leading Mitt Romney. Huckabee comes out on top of the poll garnering 22 percent, Romney finishes second with 18 percent, and Newt Gingrich finishes surprisingly well with 14 percent in third place. Sarah Palin finishes a disappointing fourth with 11 percent. Texas Congressman Ron Paul garnered 5 percent, while Pawlenty, and South Dakota Senator John Thune each received 1 percent…

If there is a surprise in the poll, it’s the strength of Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has been a frequent visitor to Iowa over the past decade. He has headlined events for the Republican Party of Iowa, various political candidates, and held activist workshops across the state. His affection for and understanding of Iowa will definitely be an asset should he seek the Republican nomination…

Sarah Palin became an instant celebrity after being named John McCain’s running mate in 2008. Palin’s brand of common sense conservatism should play well with Iowa caucuses goers, but she has yet to make her presence known in the state. People tend to either love Palin or hate her, so she is sure to garner a lot of attention in Iowa if she does decide to run.

It’s true that she hasn’t spent as much time there as Newt, but she did stop by during her book tour and weighed into the gubernatorial race by endorsing Terry Branstad at the eleventh hour. (In fact, one theory holds that her Branstad endorsement has alienated some of the GOP base in Iowa. He was the RINO in the primary, you may recall, whereas Bob Vander Plaats, who was backed by Huckabee, was the “true conservative.”) No doubt she’ll get a bounce if she swings by the state fair this week or schedules a few speeches there in the fall, but as WaPo says, a poll like this is mainly a test of name recognition — in which case, notwithstanding Huck’s caucus win in 2008, the former VP nominee and current media mega-celebrity should be right near the top. What happened?

The good news for Palinistas is that, per PPP’s latest, she’s right in the thick of it nationally and is viewed more favorably by Republicans than any other candidate. The bad news is that Doug Mataconis is right: Since she’s likely to have trouble in New Hampshire, winning Iowa is practically a must. Otherwise the “Palin is underperforming” narrative will congeal quickly and it’ll be do or die in South Carolina. Then again, like as Mataconis notes, the same is true for Huck too. Exit question: 2012 — best primaries ever?


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I don’t think ideology is a bad word. Everyone has an ideology of some kind, even the moderates.

Brian1972 on August 16, 2010 at 6:12 PM

It’s not a bad word … however, I still don’t know what a “moderate” is. The media coined it, and now people think they exist.

darwin on August 16, 2010 at 6:18 PM

I seriously hope it doesn’t come down to choosing from this bunch. Ugh.

scalleywag on August 16, 2010 at 6:09 PM

It will. There is no magical conservative impervious to the media coming out of the sun to rescue the country with an unbeatable campaign strategy.

It is going to be messy, brutal even.

If You Want Blood, You’ve Got It

That will be the 2012 primary theme song.

Brian1972 on August 16, 2010 at 6:19 PM

My collie says:

Ann Coulter had it right.

Huckabee is the Republican Jimmy Carter.

CyberCipher on August 16, 2010 at 6:19 PM

I still don’t know what a “moderate” is. The media coined it, and now people think they exist.

darwin on August 16, 2010 at 6:18 PM

Perhaps because wishy-washy doesn’t have quit the same ring?

sharrukin on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

I hope Greta drinks lots of water AND takes a couple advil. Going to the slope screws people up. And it is flatter then a pancake.

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 5:30 PM

And the sun doesn’t even work right up there….just keeps going around in circles….

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

How Ron Paul gets 5 percent of anything except a 5 percent discount for seniors with the Early Bird special at the diner is beyond me.

Ron Paul getting the nod means hawk don’t vote top of the ballot.

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

And the sun doesn’t even work right up there….just keeps going around in circles….

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

No LOL, it is getting low enough to dip on the horizon now. :)

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:21 PM

I still don’t know what a “moderate” is. The media coined it, and now people think they exist.

darwin on August 16, 2010 at 6:18 PM

A moderate is someone with an R after their name who supports democrat positions. It was designed by the MSM to help ensure democrat rule no matter who wins the election.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

Ron Paul getting the nod means hawk don’t vote top of the ballot.

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

Relax man. It ain’t happening, now way no how.

Brian1972 on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

Huckabee is the Republican Jimmy Carter.

CyberCipher on August 16, 2010 at 6:19 PM

ugh.. peanuts!

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

PPP monthly poll today:

Huck: 23%
Mitt: 22%
Palin: 21%
Newt: 21%

No room for a dark horse.

technopeasant on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

No LOL, it is getting low enough to dip on the horizon now. :)

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:21 PM

Every time I’ve been up there, I had to carry a compass with me to keep from getting lost.

And a flashlight, to see it with in the fall/winter.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:23 PM

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM

time to move to AK man. Just do it.. I can hook you up with a job or two.

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:23 PM

Every time I’ve been up there, I had to carry a compass with me to keep from getting lost.

And a flashlight, to see it with in the fall/winter.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:23 PM

*snort*

Felt backasswards did you?

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:24 PM

A moderate is someone with an R after their name who supports democrat positions. It was designed by the MSM to help ensure democrat rule no matter who wins the election.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

Aah! So that’s what a moderate is. Boy, there sure are a lot of ‘em.

Thanks!

darwin on August 16, 2010 at 6:24 PM

Iowa is not representative of anything and it’s sad that it has such a big role.

Lou Budvis on August 16, 2010 at 6:24 PM

Felt backasswards did you?

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:24 PM

Definitely. Worse than Patagonia, where the sun is in the wrong part of the sky. At least there, the sun still moves east to west.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:26 PM

Definitely. Worse than Patagonia, where the sun is in the wrong part of the sky. At least there, the sun still moves east to west.

Vashta.Nerada on August 16, 2010 at 6:26 PM

OMG you ARE Bear Grills, I knew it! Okay.. take my Hubby next time you go out. Glay-see-ayr skiing he can do. *wink*

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:29 PM

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:20 PM
time to move to AK man. Just do it.. I can hook you up with a job or two.

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:23 PM

Erm, thanks upinak, but you guys have that ice thingy going on that makes rotor blades get real heavy. Plus, Momma don’t like the cold.

We were actually offered Ft. Rich in 97 and I went to Panama instead. (Best overseas assignment evah!!!)

Relax man. It ain’t happening, now way no how.

Brian1972 on August 16, 2010 at 6:22 PM

I hope you’re right.

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:33 PM

hawkdriver on August 16, 2010 at 6:33 PM

Chicken(s). :)

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 6:36 PM

Thune gets 1% again? So much for Senator Ethanol’s appeal in the neighboring state. And of course, Pawlenty seems to have hit his ceiling as well; 1%. Daniels, who I dislike almost as much as Huckabee, doesn’t even register. When you can’t do better than that in what should be considered hometurf for these candidates in the midwest, you have no chance whatsoever in a national primary.

Yeah, there won’t be a dark-horse in 2012. The nominee will be one of these four: Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich or Sarah. Who else is going to gain national name recognition and raise the tens of $millions$ needed in the next 15 months?
Answer: Nobody.

Norwegian on August 16, 2010 at 6:38 PM

I have to think that Gov. Palin’s numbers would be different if the folks in Iowa were tripping over her on a regular basis. She’s a likable person. That said, I hope she stays away, I am a bit tired on the same old nonsense election season after election season.

Cindy Munford on August 16, 2010 at 6:51 PM

I want to say McCain won Iowa in `08. So perhaps her endorsement of him in his senate campaign will be returned by him stumping her her in Iowa.

ThePrez on August 16, 2010 at 5:58 PM

McCain won in IA because Huckleberry was his wingman siphoning off enough votes so Mitt couldn’t win. Mitt was the best candidate with the best shot at beating the Liar but Huckleberry stuck around, with no chance of winning to be sure Mitt did not win.

I voted for Mitt but for me Massthchitscare and his under the radar dirty dealin disqualify him.

Sarah still draws the crowds, does the heavy liftin, her endorsements are gold plated and she has a decent chance as an outsider and reformer to beat the liar!

An Iowans opinion.

As for the poll…. consider the source. Huckleberry takes some Evangelicals who are easily fooled by him but he wins nada. Here or anywhere.

Palin and whomever she chooses 2012!

dhunter on August 16, 2010 at 6:54 PM

Oops Read the quote dhunter, Huckleberry won the IA caucuses, but stuck around with no chance of winning the nomination … My part of the state went Mitt

dhunter on August 16, 2010 at 6:59 PM

Hey guys, My first HA comment… and you’ll be hearing a lot more of me so stay tuned and enjoy

Anyway, those polls fascinate me, one might be forgiven for thinking that the campaign has begun in earnest and that speeches, debates campaign ads have already begun. All those polls mean nothing.

Governor Palin hasn’t given a single campaign speech, no rally’s no ads, no debates and hasn’t even confirmed that she’s even running, yet in some polls she ties in other she’s within the margin of error and sure in some she’s trailing.

The most people know of her is what’s being reported by the media which as we all know is always taken out of context and never what she really believes or says. Just wait for Palin to get out there, give speeches, meet people and do what she’s really good at. Now that’s the numbers I’m looking forward too.

All mentioned candidates have already run their own Presidential campaigns so voters pretty much know what they’re getting and their support although it may fluctuate a bit here and there, this is where they are. For Palin however this is a first so while others will have to adapt their messages and obviously flip flop across the board Palin doesn’t. Sure she was McCain’s VP selection but A) she was running on HIS message (most of which she disagreed with).

I’m not suggesting it’s going to be easy for her, but with the right campaign, the right message and the right strategy the sky’s the limit for her.

I don’t know if she’s running but if she’s in it she’ll win it. You can put your money on it.

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:16 PM

Hey guys, My first HA comment
Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:16 PM

So who let you in? Allah or Ed?

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 7:23 PM

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:16 PM

Welcome aboard!

By the way, I agree with your first comment 100% :-)

Norwegian on August 16, 2010 at 7:25 PM

Exit question: 2012 — best primaries ever?

You betcha. Carnage and Litmus tests. Just what Obama hoped for.

portlandon on August 16, 2010 at 5:04 PM

Bammie is going to have his own problems if his slide continues. Hillary technically beat him last time, -by 2012 after four years of his incompetence he goes under the bus.

The question is, will his planet-sized ego drive him to run as an independent? You betcha.

slickwillie2001 on August 16, 2010 at 7:39 PM

Here’s one for the Palin fans: Gravel Road

slickwillie2001 on August 16, 2010 at 7:43 PM

None of these candidates will be the nominee.

patrick neid on August 16, 2010 at 7:47 PM

So who let you in? Allah or Ed?

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 7:23 PM

That’s a don’t ask don’t tell question.. let’s just say I have friends in high places where I knocked on the door and someone opened

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Screw that snake oil,used car,aluminum siding salesman,carney hobo!

sonnyspats1 on August 16, 2010 at 7:59 PM

None of these candidates will be the nominee.

patrick neid on August 16, 2010 at 7:47 PM

Oh. So. Are you going to be?

Or.

Let me guess.

Ron Paul?

Paul Ryan?

Rick Santorum?

hrh40 on August 16, 2010 at 8:05 PM

That’s a don’t ask don’t tell question.. let’s just say I have friends in high places where I knocked on the door and someone opened

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:48 PM

Keep that thought going.

upinak on August 16, 2010 at 8:14 PM

Reforms are needed in the caucus/primary system. Iowa needs to be out of there as the first one. This one of the reasons we have these ridiculous ethanol subsidies.

echosyst on August 16, 2010 at 8:31 PM

I don’t know if she’s running but if she’s in it she’ll win it. You can put your money on it.

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:16 PM

I intend to, along with every minute of my time and every ounce of my effort. All I’m waiting for is her to say “yes”.

Extrafishy on August 16, 2010 at 8:35 PM

“McCain won in IA because Huckleberry was his wingman siphoning off enough votes so Mitt couldn’t win. Mitt was the best candidate with the best shot at beating the Liar but Huckleberry stuck around, with no chance of winning to be sure Mitt did not win.”
McCain did not win either the caucuses nor the general election in Iowa. Huckabee won the caucuses in 2008. Romney failed to put to rest the questions about his perceived flip-flops on gay marriage and health care. He also played the victim of religious discrimination by evangelicals, thus offending the highly influential Christian right. The Christians felt that Huckabee supported their social agenda.

nkviking75 on August 16, 2010 at 9:10 PM

Sheya on August 16, 2010 at 7:16 PM

Welcome Sheya!!

gary4205 on August 16, 2010 at 9:51 PM

A popcorn fried squirrel in every…

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quick, ask the Huck-ster what he thinks of the Ground Zero Mosque.

profitsbeard on August 16, 2010 at 10:29 PM

This is why I hate the way our primary system is structured. I really don’t give a damn who voters in Iowa prefer. Or New Hampshire or wherever else. Why do they get to decide these things before I get a chance to vote? Ugh.

CP on August 16, 2010 at 10:33 PM

Christie/Anyone else

Schadenfreude on August 16, 2010 at 10:48 PM

Four-Way Tie for 2012 Nom Among National GOP Voters

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?

Favorable….. 76%
Unfavorable .. 17%
Not sure …… 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable…… 65%
Unfavorable…. 19%
Not sure …… 16%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable…. .62%
Unfavorable . .14%
Not sure….. .25%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?

Favorable…… 57%
Unfavorable … 21%
Not sure ….. 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?

Favorable…… 36%
Unfavorable … 25%
Not sure …… 40%

Of course, our boy AllahPundit isn’t gonna publish this, but this polling show that Willard Romney is DONE among serious people.

Other than “Dr Paul” who is damned near upside down favorable/unfavorable, Romney has the highest unfavorables.

Notice that Sarah Palin has BY FAR the highest favorables, and her unfavorables are only a tad bit higher than Huckabee’s. (how that guy doesn’t score lower than Her Doctor, I’ll never know!)

gary4205 on August 16, 2010 at 10:52 PM

Oh, piss on this. None of the above.

SukieTawdry on August 16, 2010 at 11:28 PM

Stupid to even write about these polls since the caucus is 19 months away.

–In August 2006, (Research 2000 (R): McCain 27, Giuliani 26, Romney 9)

–In May 2007, (Des Moines Register poll: Romney 30, McCain 18, Giuliani 17, Huckabee 4)

–Actual, Jan 2008: Huckabee 34, Romney 25, Thompson 13, McCain 13, Paul 10, Giuliani 4

jbristor on August 17, 2010 at 12:43 AM

Stupid to even write about these polls since the caucus is 19 months away.

jbristor on August 17, 2010 at 12:43 AM

It’s this or more gay.

exception on August 17, 2010 at 3:02 AM

McCain did not win either the caucuses nor the general election in Iowa. Huckabee won the caucuses in 2008. Romney failed to put to rest the questions about his perceived flip-flops on gay marriage and health care. He also played the victim of religious discrimination by evangelicals, thus offending the highly influential Christian right. The Christians felt that Huckabee supported their social agenda.

nkviking75 on August 16, 2010 at 9:10 PM

You are absolutely correct and I totally screwed up that post that’s what happens when one rushes home from work and tries to post while tired, bein called to dinner, and hurrying before the food gets cold or the wife gets pissed!

Ha !

dhunter on August 17, 2010 at 11:30 AM

“Quick, ask the Huck-ster what he thinks of the Ground Zero Mosque.”

He already answered several times. But, here is his latest comments on his blog Sometimes It’s Just A Matter of Common Sense

Granny T on August 17, 2010 at 1:05 PM

It is starting to look more and more like Huckabee is “laying the groundwork” for his next run.

Granny T on August 17, 2010 at 1:08 PM

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