Bombshell: Fiorina 47, Boxer 42

posted at 4:12 pm on August 12, 2010 by Allahpundit

Probably the single most exciting poll of the season thus far. Not only does it suggest that one of the most loathsome Democrats in Congress is really, truly vulnerable, but if even California’s in play then retaking the Senate might be doable after all.

Midterm fee-vah — catch it!

California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina has increased her lead over Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer to five percentage points according to a new CBS 5 KPIX-TV poll released Thursday, which also shows gubernatorial candidates Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman in a dead heat…

The poll results indicated Fiorina’s support was essentially unchanged among men and women, young and old, white and Hispanic while Boxer had lost small ground among men, younger voters, and independents.

The poll also showed Fiorina tripling her lead in the Central Valley, from seven points one month ago to 21 points in this latest poll.

According to the crosstabs, Fiorina wins 27 percent of the black vote, trails among Hispanics by just six points, and crushes Boxer among indies by 17. There’s no GOP slant in the sample either; it splits 44D, 34R, and 23I. Now here’s where I give you the obligatory eeyore caution: Survey USA’s a respected pollster but they’re the only ones to show Fiorina with a lead this year. Their last poll had her up two points and a Pajamas Media poll taken in June had the race even, but literally everyone else — including Rasmussen — has Boxer ahead by anywhere from five to nine points. So consider these new numbers not so much an answer as a question: Just an outlier, or a leading indicator of a trend in the race? Rasmussen’s last poll did show Fiorina closing in, but only ever so slightly (a two-point gain). Keep this on your radar screen, then, with an eye to confirmation via the next round of polls. Just a little tremor happening in California, or is this the Big One?

Meanwhile, WaPo just moved two more Senate races from “lean Democratic” into the “toss-up” column. Hmmmmm. Exit question: Could the bump for Carly be part of a backlash to the Proposition 8 ruling? She denounced it after it was handed down, but per Survey USA’s analysis, it looks like she hasn’t gained any support so much as Boxer has bled some. And given that part of the bleeding is coming from gay-friendly young voters, I’m thinking … no, probably not the Prop 8 decision. But stay tuned.


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Comment pages: 1 2

The fact that Jerry Brown is even running for Governor shows how much California Dems have lost touch with reality. Talk about drinking too much Kool Aid. In all of Cali Jerry Brown is the best they could come up with? Even still the race is a dead heat in the world’s 7/8th largest economy. We’re f’ked.

patrick neid on August 12, 2010 at 8:39 PM

I don’t care for Fiorina, but I do want Feinstein scared! I plan to vote for Fiorina and I’m looking forward to the opportunity to see Boxer unemployed! If Boxer is unemployed Feinstein will get the scare of her life!

“God forbid! If my good buddy Barbara lost her job, I might be next!!!”

:)

Vntnrse on August 12, 2010 at 8:48 PM

I hope Fiorina kicks Boxers ass!

MCGIRV on August 12, 2010 at 8:52 PM

In states like Mass. and Calif. you have to bite the bullet now and work to change minds now and later. The hour is coming.

CWforFreedom on August 12, 2010 at 9:16 PM

Carly will have to win by more than that margin if she wants to overcome the ACORN factor. (Think of all those illegals they’ll take to the polls!)

Christian Conservative on August 12, 2010 at 9:32 PM

Go Carly. I think she’ll be a “Scott Brown” type of Republican but an R is an R.

Mojave Mark on August 12, 2010 at 11:43 PM

California has been the state hardest hit by the excesses and fantasies of Liberalism.

It’s now a matter of “Get Real or Die” for California.

landlines on August 13, 2010 at 2:09 AM

Call me Senator” is about to be boxed…

Gohawgs on August 13, 2010 at 2:41 AM

Probably the single most exciting poll of the season thus far. Not only does it suggest that one of the most loathsome Democrats in Congress is really, truly vulnerable, but if even California’s in play then retaking the Senate might be doable after all.

M’God, was that AP sounding… optimistic?

(Ancitpated response: Only for a moment. And that moment was fleeting….)

apostic on August 13, 2010 at 5:31 AM

To all the Fiorina detractors, let’s look at the issues.

Fiornia is pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-defence.

Fiornia is anti-Obamacare, against “gay marriage”, anti-cap and trade.

What more do you want?

panzerkardinal on August 13, 2010 at 11:37 AM

panzerkardinal on August 13, 2010

Maybe people want to know that she’s solid on those issues and not just a McCain type conservative-during-the-primaries-only Republican.

Extrafishy on August 13, 2010 at 1:21 PM

Extrafishy on August 13, 2010 at 1:21 PM

McCain is solidly Pro life, Pro Second Amendment, and Pro Defense.

I agree he is squishy on far to many issues and sometimes flat out wrong (past views on amnesty for one). However, he is far better than any Democrat currently in office on 90% of his votes.

Fiorina is probably not an ideal Conservative. But when compared to Boxer she looks like Maggie Thatcher.

Take the win you can get and 6 Years without Boxer in the Senate is a win.

jpmn on August 13, 2010 at 4:36 PM

Comment pages: 1 2