Carville pollster shows Democrats stumbling even further with electorate

posted at 10:55 am on August 4, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

James Carville’s Democracy Corps commissioned a poll at the end of July to test the mood of the electorate, and Brian Faughnan of Liberty Central gleefully discovers that voters are furious at Democrats.  Despite the “Recovery Summer” sales pitch by the White House, voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy, and increasingly inclined to deliver a protest vote in November.  Brian points to a few of the charts included in the analysis from Citizen Opinion, Carville’s pollster, and this one seems most relevant:

Until Joe Biden started pitching “Recovery Summer,” voters seemed reasonably split on whether to cast votes in protest of the administration’s policies, and may have even closed the gap a bit since the beginning of the year.  In June, however, the drop in economic indicators began to be too big to ignore or jolly over with a sales pitch.  The extension of bad news on employment also became so obvious that the media mainly stopped pretending to be surprised by it.  The poll shows a wide margin of people planning protest votes.

This also goes along with a collapse in support for Democratic leadership on economics:

The most interesting part of this chart is that it shows little bounce for Democrats in March and April, when at least a few of the indicators looked more positive.  Also note that Democrats have traditionally outpolled Republicans on the economy over the last couple of decades, and often on deficits as well.  This is a big shift in American politics if this trend holds up; a -13 on economics is huge in these midterms especially.  It could mean that the GOP has the opportunity to discredit Democrats for a long time to come, assuming that a win in the midterms means muscling the White House into a course correction.

It’s not just Democrats that voters have begun to reject, either.  A majority have lost faith in President Hopeandchange, too:

The argument that Obama somehow rescued us from something worse than what we see now has worn very thin indeed.  Only 41% buy that argument after eighteen months of Obama’s term of office.  A majority in Carville’s poll sees the exploding deficit and the moribund economy as Obama’s fault, and a key cause of our current economic malaise.

These numbers are a disaster for Democrats, and an opportunity for Republicans to show real leadership on deficits, government spending, and economic development.  This time around, it’s the GOP taking Carville’s mantra of “It’s the economy, stupid,” and hopefully putting it to good use.


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Obama is an economic disaster. He said he would rapidly solve the problems. he made them worse.
The honorable thing for him is to step down.

seven on August 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

“and an opportunity for Republicans to show real leadership on deficits, government spending, and economic development.”

Key word: OPPORTUNITY.

Let’s all hope we don’t go back to dem-lite.

mgman on August 4, 2010 at 10:59 AM

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/This-year_s-election-may-mirror-Democrat_s-debacle-in-1966-1007055-99896979.html

Will be interesting to be sure. Barone as usual has a good analysis in the link above.

Bradky on August 4, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Also note that Democrats have traditionally outpolled Republicans on the economy over the last couple of decades, and often on deficits as well.

A testament to the outstanding skill of the GOP in getting out a coherent message of economic conservatism.

Cicero43 on August 4, 2010 at 11:01 AM

Until Joe Biden started pitching “Recovery Summer,” voters seemed reasonably split on whether to cast votes in protest of the administration’s policies, and may have even closed the cap a bit since the beginning of the year.

Stand up, Joe! God love ya!

greggriffith on August 4, 2010 at 11:02 AM

These numbers are a disaster for Democrats, and an opportunity for Republicans Conservatives to show real leadership on deficits, government spending, and economic development.

I don’t trust the Republican Party to do the right thing. I can see them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Jeff2161 on August 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

So, the blame W meme is kaput?

Highly doubtful with this administration

cmsinaz on August 4, 2010 at 11:04 AM

The Pubs have been given a generational opportunity. Do they realize it?

paul1149 on August 4, 2010 at 11:05 AM

So, does this mean war with Iran in September?

OldEnglish on August 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM

The Pubs have been given a generational opportunity. Do they realize it?

paul1149 on August 4, 2010 at 11:05 AM

Most of them can’t see much beyond Jan 20, 2011 right now.

Brian1972 on August 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Police Bust Another Hope and Change Lab

Mervis Winter on August 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Jeff2161, sad but true

cmsinaz on August 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM

These statements are not racist and it’s Obama’s fault.
(Gave up on waiting for a job with the MSM, so I thought I would tell the truth this time. Fox are you listening?)

BruceB on August 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Obama is an economic disaster. He said he would rapidly solve the problems. he made them worse.
The honorable thing for him is to step down.

seven on August 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

I can’t argue with that.
Well, other than to wince at the idea of President Joe Biden.

Count to 10 on August 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Obama is an economic disaster. He said he would rapidly solve the problems. he made them worse.
The honorable thing for him is to step down.

seven on August 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

Hell no. He wanted this job. He can sit there and suffer like the rest of us through 2012 before we unceremoniously boot his ass back into private life.

Doughboy on August 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM

Hey Joe….this is a big $^#@(8# deal!!!

yoda on August 4, 2010 at 11:08 AM

Does anyone really think he’s just plain incompetent? This is by design…AND he’s an incompetent boob.

search4truth on August 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

It’s the government, the economy is the victim.

Recovery bummer continues.

ajacksonian on August 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

One point where Obama is right, he is calling the Republicans bluff. If the Republicans are bluffing that they can lead the way out of this mess, then we will soon know. Boehner better be putting in a lot of hours on a wise, reasoned and practical plan and he better be watching some Chris Christo prono flicks for some good tips. Just as the R minority has flogged (somewhat) the president, the president will soon take full advantage of flogging a R majority.

ted c on August 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

He’s History’s greatest monster!!

abobo on August 4, 2010 at 11:11 AM

Police Bust Another Hope and Change Lab

Mervis Winter on August 4, 2010 at 11:07 AM

Nice.

Like this one, too.

Good Lt on August 4, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Joe Bite-me is more like a used car salesman who specializes in vehicles under $8000.00.

tim c on August 4, 2010 at 11:13 AM

So much for Hope and Change.

This kind of data is just the sort of Change I’ve been Hoping for.

I can see November from my House.

Brian1972 on August 4, 2010 at 11:14 AM

Are they nailing shut the windows on the top floor of the Capitol building yet?….jus wonderin’..

ted c on August 4, 2010 at 11:16 AM

I don’t understand this whole rewriting of history with the ‘rescuing us from the brink of depression.’ That argument might could be made for TARP, especially if it had actually been used for what it was supposed to be used for, but the Obama stimulus was a spending bill. TARP was to address a specific crisis, and stabilize and/or fend off a potential crash. The Porkulus package was to juice the economy that had already seen the massive stabilizing infusions of cash from TARP.

If anyone rescued us from the brink of depression it was Pres. Bush & TARP, not Barry and his congressional spending spree.

I don’t like TARP and didn’t support it, but this argument makes no sense to me.

lizzie beth on August 4, 2010 at 11:16 AM

Also note that Democrats have traditionally outpolled Republicans on the economy over the last couple of decades, and often on deficits as well.

A testament to the outstanding skill of the GOP in getting out a coherent message of economic conservatism.

Cicero43 on August 4, 2010 at 11:01 AM

True, but it is also a testament to the power of the Democrat Mainstream Media. They chose what to report, and what to censor.

Prime example? The economic recovery that Bill Clinton claimed credit for actually began in March 1991, 18 months before he took office, but the media didn’t get around to “reporting” it until 1999.

Del Dolemonte on August 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Soon Carville’s going to be tossed into the “not a real Democrat column” with Dick Morris and Pat Caddell.

Obama’s team won’t tolerate dissension in the ranks. Just see what’s happening to Boxer and Rangel, who endorsed Hillary.

hawksruleva on August 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

It could mean that the GOP has the opportunity to discredit Democrats for a long time to come, assuming that a win in the midterms means muscling the White House into course correction a Constitutional browbeating.

FTFY

ted c on August 4, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Del Dolemonte on August 4, 2010 at 11:17 AM

They are still saying that Reagan’s tax cuts got our deficit so out of control even now.

There was this little thing called the Soviet Union Nuclear Missile threat…….

Brian1972 on August 4, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Soon Carville’s going to be tossed into the “not a real Democrat column” with Dick Morris and Pat Caddell.

Obama’s team won’t tolerate dissension in the ranks. Just see what’s happening to Boxer and Rangel, who endorsed Hillary.

hawksruleva on August 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

and I’m sure ol’ James will land right into the “Hillary 2012″ front office.

pass. popcorn. please.

ted c on August 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

The numbers for Obama and The Dems are going south rather quickly. One can only imagine how much lower they’d be if these clowns didn’t have media cover. Thank God the people are shutting off their damn TV’s and those damn liars. The media has overplayed its hand engaging in political protection and lost all remaining relevancy.

RepubChica on August 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

The media has overplayed its hand engaging in political protection and lost all remaining relevancy.

RepubChica on August 4, 2010 at 11:20 AM

yep, they’re wearing this millstone all the way down to the bottom. Nice work MSM. can you say “glug, glug…..glug….”

ted c on August 4, 2010 at 11:23 AM

I don’t understand this whole rewriting of history with the ‘rescuing us from the brink of depression.’

If anyone rescued us from the brink of depression it was Pres. Bush & TARP, not Barry and his congressional spending spree.

I don’t like TARP and didn’t support it, but this argument makes no sense to me.

lizzie beth on August 4, 2010 at 11:16 AM

This is Barry trying to have it both ways. He wants to blame Bush for the financial crisis, but at the same time, he’s attempting to claim credit for TARP which according to him “prevented another Great Depression”. Yet that was signed into law by Bush.

He also wants to blame Bush for a $1.3 trillion deficit he inherited which includes $700 billion of TARP money, yet once again he also wants to claim credit for TARP.

It’s incoherent and contradictory. And it’s why people at this point have tuned him out. Most of his support comes from kool-aid drinkers or diehard Dems who will stick with him no matter how bad things get.

Doughboy on August 4, 2010 at 11:25 AM

A wave to take out the socialist trash is a building …

tarpon on August 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM

I blame Bush for not being able to blame Bush anymore…or something.

Justrand on August 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM

after the MO vote of no-confidence on Obamacare all of these numbers can be explain by Obamacare. People in flyover country are smarter then the elites because they can see passed “good intentions” and see what the end result of Obamacare and finacial regulation will be. throw in the tax increases, the increased regulation and people are not concerned about the present but the future they see coming.

The numbers could be great and the dems are still going to get smacked hard in NOV because the flyover people see the handwritting on the wall and see the future as bleak due to the policies being passed in DC. the fact that those outcomes are happening now instead of in a year or two is just icing on the cake.

The dems understood what they were doing but they hoped their cash infusion would give a small bounce before election and then again in 2012 before the election and people would be “stupid” enough to relect them so they could destroy our childrens future more beofre the “flyover idiots” figured it all out.

unseen on August 4, 2010 at 11:31 AM

A wave to take out the socialist trash is a building …

tarpon on August 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM

true but I worry about what will replace it. If its more Bush rinoism then the dems will win back those seats. If instead its conservative replacement the GOP could secure their rule for 100 years

unseen on August 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

So, does this mean war with Iran in September?

OldEnglish on August 4, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Yep, I’d say the ME is not a good choice for your vacation this fall.

petefrt on August 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Hillary for President

faraway on August 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

does anyone else see how basised those questions are on the poll? and they still got taken to the cleaners.

Imagine what the answer would be with nonbaisied questions?

unseen on August 4, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Soon Carville’s going to be tossed into the “not a real Democrat column” with Dick Morris and Pat Caddell.

hawksruleva on August 4, 2010 at 11:18 AM

He is not welcome on this side. Squishy middle and left we don’t care.

antisocial on August 4, 2010 at 11:35 AM

“Don’t worry, honey, they’re all just racists out there.”

-Michelle cooing in PBHO’s ear

Bishop on August 4, 2010 at 11:36 AM

A wave to take out the socialist trash is a building …

tarpon on August 4, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Follow the flies. They know trash when they see it.

petefrt on August 4, 2010 at 11:36 AM

While the people are getting a clue, it might be a good time to say right out loud that the Democrats have been in charge of the money since 2006.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Hillary for President

faraway on August 4, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Yup. She’ll announce her resignation from Secretary of State during the lame duck session.

fogw on August 4, 2010 at 11:39 AM

Obamacare instead of jobs will kill them, and should.

Such arrogance must and will be punished.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2010 at 11:43 AM

While the people are getting a clue, it might be a good time to say right out loud that the Democrats have been in charge of the money since 2006.

Cindy Munford on August 4, 2010 at 11:36 AM

Exactly, and this is how the GOP should counter Obama’s lame argument that we can’t afford to give the country back to the party that caused the economic mess we are in. Fact is, we can’t afford to have Democrats controlling both houses, passing legislation that takes away our healthcare choices, cripples our banking and lending institutions while handing over billions to union run auto companies that manufacture lemons.

That’s how we got here, and it needs to be said loudly and often.

fogw on August 4, 2010 at 11:46 AM

It’s not just Democrats that voters have begun to reject, either. A majority have lost faith in President Hopeandchange, too:


But….But….liberals told us this:


Obama Shrine

[Mark Steyn]
A reader took this picture today at a street fair at Hayes and Octavia in San Francisco, of all places:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/

Celebs compare Obama to Jesus, Gandhi

Movie star Susan Sarandon compared President Obama to Jesus. Broadway and film actor Alan Cumming thought of him more like Mahatma Gandhi.

“He is a community organizer like Jesus was,” Sarandon said Tuesday night on the bright blue carpet leading into the Creative Coalition’s 2009 Ball at the Harman Center for the Arts in Chinatown. “And now, we’re a community and he can organize us.

Noted imbecile Mark Morford: Obama is a “Lightworker,” an “enlightened being”

Here’s where it gets gooey. Many spiritually advanced people I know (not coweringly religious, mind you, but deeply spiritual) identify Obama as a Lightworker, that rare kind of attuned being who has the ability to lead us not merely to new foreign policies or health care plans or whatnot, but who can actually help usher in a new way of being on the planet, of relating and connecting and engaging with this bizarre earthly experiment. These kinds of people actually help us evolve. They are philosophers and peacemakers of a very high order, and they speak not just to reason or emotion, but to the soul.

Newsweek, Around the Bend

THOMAS: Obama is ‘we are above that now.’ We’re not just parochial, we’re not just chauvinistic, we’re not just provincial. We stand for something – I mean in a way Obama’s standing above the country, above – above the world, he’s sort of God.

MATTHEWS:
Yeah.

THOMAS: He’s going to bring all different sides together.

Commentary by John Ridley

Quite simply, quite plainly, just by virtue his being, Obama is America. The first true American to lead our nation.

Check out this video of Obamessiah worshiping children:
http://www.reason.com/blog/show/129137.html


In the Smith College student newspaper, a student writes an impassioned op-ed declaring Obama to be her “Personal Jesus.”

‘I’ve officially been saved, and soon, whether they like it or not, the rest of the country will be too.’

Worshipping Obama

I talked to one of my best friends about her meeting with a literary agent, and she said roughly the following:

As I often do in weighty moments, I prayed to God — but I kept seeing an image of Barack Obama. I kept saying to myself, “No, God, not Obama,” and I concentrated on images of Christ on the cross. But I kept seeing Obama smiling, until I finally decided that I would just give up and pray to Obama


The following are the lyrics of two songs reportedly taught to a class at a New Jersey elementary school full of praises for the “great accomplishments” of President Obama.

Hello, Mr. President we honor you today!
For all your great accomplishments, we all doth say

“hooray!”

Hooray, Mr. President! You’re number one!
The first black American to lead this great nation!
Hooray, Mr. President we honor your great plans
To make this country’s economy number one again!
Hooray Mr. President, we’re really proud of you!
And we stand for all Americans under the great Red, White, and Blue!

So continue —- Mr. President we know you’ll do the trick
So here’s a hearty hip-hooray —-

Hip, hip hooray!
Hip, hip hooray!
Hip, hip hooray!

democrats sold America “a savior of the world” but delivered whining, empty suit.

………liberals have no credibility what-so-ever

Yes We Can!!!!!!

Baxter Greene on August 4, 2010 at 11:57 AM

Oh, come on all you pessamists! Can you not stomach good news? Don’t you see that this time it is the DEMOCRATS who have snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Don’t let your negative thinking turn into self-fulfilling prophesies. Please, take a deep breath, and then try smiling a little. GEEZ!

parteagirl on August 4, 2010 at 12:00 PM

We better get busy and find our own Captain Kickass to run for president next election, because I don’t think we have one yet.

scalleywag on August 4, 2010 at 12:02 PM

The deficit will be addressed in his second term.

/getaclue

ladyingray on August 4, 2010 at 12:09 PM

BDS has a shelf life and lying only works for just so long…We have reached the point where ‘who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes’ coming from BoBo does not work for the dems…

JIMV on August 4, 2010 at 12:14 PM

I heard yesterday that housing prices dropped again in St Louis county and the last time this happened was 1931 and 1932.

Gee, what does that say, exactly? /s

golfmann on August 4, 2010 at 12:15 PM

hello

faraway on August 4, 2010 at 12:24 PM

The honorable thing for him is to step down.

seven on August 4, 2010 at 10:58 AM

And leave Slow Joe at the helm? I’d rather a defanged Øbama after a GOP win in November than someone in the WH that spent decades (and made many friends) in the Senate.

Kafir on August 4, 2010 at 12:26 PM

Until Joe Biden started pitching “Recovery Summer,” voters seemed reasonably split on whether to cast votes in protest of the administration’s policies, and may have even closed the cap a bit since the beginning of the year.

By talking about it, it has kept it in the news, and it has made the public more conscience about what is going on and they are not just into this administration anymore and their ways to try to pull the wool over the eyes of the American people

ConservativePartyNow on August 4, 2010 at 12:30 PM

Who knew that many people were joining the Klan?

mankai on August 4, 2010 at 12:40 PM

In June, however, the drop in economic indicators began to be too big to ignore or jolly over with a sales pitch.

But it works so well for those who sell everything from the snuggie, to the slap chop, on tv!?!?

I think the Dems, and Obama seriously underestimate the American public. Not EVERYONE is as stupid as those who support Obama, and his policies.

capejasmine on August 4, 2010 at 1:30 PM

I don’t see any of this helping Michelle’s children.

pain train on August 4, 2010 at 1:32 PM

Baxter Greene on August 4, 2010 at 11:57 AM

But…it’s gotta be Bush’s fault…somehow. As for all that other gobbeldy gook….we all know it’s the Republicans fault for obstructing Obama, and the Dems agenda. Had it not been for those danged Republicans, health care, and financial reform would have been forced thru. Oh wait……..

capejasmine on August 4, 2010 at 1:34 PM

Oh wait……..

capejasmine on August 4, 2010 at 1:34 PM

Heh!!

Well you know that if they say it often enough….a lot of their sheep will believe them.

Baxter Greene on August 4, 2010 at 1:39 PM

does anyone else see how basised those questions are on the poll? and they still got taken to the cleaners.

Imagine what the answer would be with nonbaisied questions?

unseen on August 4, 2010 at 11:34 AM

Yeah, this reads like the most absurd type of push-poll.

Tohe problem isn’t just with the bias. The problem is why would you put reasons into the respondents’ mouth to begin with? What if you support the Republicans but are doing it for reasons other than a protest? What if you support the democrats but are doing it for reasons other than to avoid jeopardizing chances for a recovery?

If you want to get someone’s reason for voting a certain way, you ask a follow-up question.

There are only two reasons to include a reason with the question the way they do here:

1. To push the respondent into thinking about the issue the way the pollster wants them to (i.e., make the respondent think that the only way they can support the republicans is as a protest).

2. To push the person reading about the poll to draw unwarranted conclusions about the results (i.e., make people assume that when people support the republicans, they are only doing it as a protest).

My suspicion is that the second one is what’s going on here – at this point, people are furious with the democrats, so telling them their vote for republicans is “just” a protest vote isn’t likely to change their opinion much. That’s why the Democrats still lose in this poll. The reason for the loaded question is to get people to interpret the result as an expression only of anger over the current economic conditions, rather than over other issues like Obamacare, etc.

RINO in Name Only on August 4, 2010 at 2:06 PM

Get ready for the Hillary primary challenge.

MTF on August 4, 2010 at 2:08 PM

The ‘big’ kid holds the keys and doesn’t want to release them ’cause we don’t know how to drive. Heh.

Schadenfreude on August 4, 2010 at 2:11 PM

I can see November from my house!!!

Haiku Guy on August 4, 2010 at 2:37 PM

Carville pollster shows Democrats stumbling even further with electorate

As much as I disagree with his politics, his polling is usually accurate.

It will be interesting to see if the rhetoric coming from the nullification ilk will subside should the GOP capture both houses of Congress.

It will also be interesting to see if the rhetoric from the birther ilk will increase from result of same.

rukiddingme on August 4, 2010 at 4:16 PM

Under Bush Under Obowma
5% unemployment 17% includes those who quit looking
$160 billion deficit $1.6 TRILLION deficit
$8 TRILLION national debt $14 TRILLION national debt
6% spending of GDP 60% spending of GDP
democrat congress democrat congress
TARP Stimulus 1 and 2, AIG, GM,
Chrysler, school loans,
cash for clunkers, cap and
trade, healthcare…….

Hey Obowma, who drove the car into the ditch?

dthorny on August 5, 2010 at 8:07 AM