ABC: Pelosi should be “nervous” about November

posted at 3:45 pm on August 2, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour that she was “not nervous at all” about Democrats keeping control after the upcoming midterms. ABC’s Rick Klein says that her fellow Democrats don’t share that sense of calm — and for good reason. Stuart Rothenberg puts the number of seats at risk in this election at 88, with only 12 of those belonging to the GOP. That gives Republicans 64 chances (net) to get to 39 seats, and in this environment, all of those numbers may be conservative, especially with two ethics trials pending in the House:

Democrats now hold a 39-seat edge in the House. Yet the playing field continues to expand: The Rothenberg Political Report currently lists 88 seats as “in play.” Seventy-six of those seats currently are held by Democrats.

Many of the same places that helped build the president’s winning coalition in his race against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. — states such as Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, and Pennsylvania — could be the places where Republicans rack up the gains they need to take back the House.

In many of those districts, the Obama agenda has been widely unpopular. House members are left defending votes on items including the stimulus, bailouts, health care and cap-and-trade that have grown more unpopular with the passage of time.

It means that the president and his agenda will very much be on the ballot — while the president himself won’t be the best position to help Democrats play defense.

Not only will the President not be on the ballot to drive turnout, he may not be on the stump much, either. In Texas, for instance, the Democratic incumbents have declared him persona non grata for now:

When President Barack Obama visits Texas on Aug. 9, the state’s top-tier Democratic candidate, gubernatorial nominee Bill White, will likely be miles away, reaching out to voters in Johnson County near Fort Worth.

Another Democratic hopeful for statewide office, Austin attorney Hector Uribe, says he’ll be focused on his bid to unseat Republican Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. Barbara Radnofsky, the Democrats’ nominee for attorney general, says she too will be preoccupied with campaigning and has no plans to attend an Obama event.

In red-state Texas, many Democratic office-seekers don’t seem inclined to cozy up to Obama when he makes his third presidential visit to the state — and some, in fact, may feel more comfortable moving away from him.

Obama turned box-office boffo to box-office poison in a record amount of time. That’s no accident, as Rothenberg argues, nor was it inevitable, but the result of the failure of Democrats to properly attend to the economy:

Let’s be clear about where we all would be if unemployment were actually at 4 percent right now.

Most of the hand-wringing about jobs and the economy would be gone, stronger employment numbers would mean a more vibrant economy (which almost certainly would mean higher federal and state revenues and lower deficits) and polling undoubtedly would show the president with better numbers, Congress with a higher approval rating and the Democratic Party more popular than it is now. Because of that, the huge enthusiasm gap that now exists and is likely to fuel GOP gains in November would be much smaller or nonexistent. …

Actions, indeed, do have consequences. In this case, the combination of an aggressive Democratic agenda, a weak jobs recovery and a large deficit has created a political environment very different from the one 18 months ago, when Democrats won a special election in New York’s open 20th district by demonizing Republicans for waffling on, then opposing, Obama’s economic stimulus plan.

It’s very difficult to imagine Republican gains in the House of fewer than two dozen seats, and my own newsletter, after going race by race, recently placed likely GOP gains in the range of 28 to 33 seats, if not higher.

Anyone disputing that the House is at “great risk” of flipping to the GOP is “simply not worth listening to,” Rothenburg concludes. That’s certainly true of Nancy Pelosi.


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Comments

She’s not a person worth listening to in the first place…but I agree.

powerpro on August 2, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Let’s be clear about where we all would be if unemployment were actually at 4 percent right now.

We would be listening to liberals whine about Senator Obama having the election stolen from him, just like Gore did.

Bishop on August 2, 2010 at 3:49 PM

Just take the House. A reduced Dem Senate prevents the usual Democratic “blame the GOP” Congress strategy before the general.

rickyricardo on August 2, 2010 at 3:50 PM

and the reason that Rangel and Waters want to be judged by a Peleosi controled congress versus Boehner?

barnone on August 2, 2010 at 3:50 PM

the combination of an aggressive Democratic agenda, a weak jobs recovery and a large deficit has created a political environment very different from the one 18 months ago

Maybe this is why this

Let’s be clear about where we all would be if unemployment were actually at 4 percent right now.

hasn’t happened.

Just a thought.

lorien1973 on August 2, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour that she was “not nervous at all” about Democrats keeping control after the upcoming midterms.

She’s just trying to keep a stiff upper lip. Massive Botox injections help tremendously.

RadClown on August 2, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Still a lot of work, and time between now, and November. I won’t put the cart before the horse, but I am praying. We can’t let Pelosi control things anymore, or simply …kiss the country good bye forever!!!

capejasmine on August 2, 2010 at 3:53 PM

Not only will the President not be on the ballot to drive turnout, he may not be on the stump much, either. In Texas, for instance, the Democratic incumbents have declared him persona non grata for now

“He made me vote for it…I didn’t want to but, look, I’m just a guy, like all of you. I do what I have to do keep my job, just like you. I’ve got kids, car payments, a condo in Bimini, and many hours of ad voice overs to do. So, hey, give me a break…hey…I’ll send lot’s dough back here if you vote for me!…oh, yeah….United States of America and thank you for your service…I wasn’t sure if I had said that yet; see, they tell us to make sure you say that everytime you see a microphone. It’s supposed to make the workers like you or something.”

BobMbx on August 2, 2010 at 3:55 PM

I wouldn’t put anything past her or the Dem’s or ACORN or SEIU… I see the PPP poll is saying that the dems are trending UP, not that I believe THEM..

reshas1 on August 2, 2010 at 3:57 PM

Not wanting the first black president to campaign for them….racist.

tommer74 on August 2, 2010 at 4:00 PM

Shhhh. Let Nancy be confident. Let them keep doing and saying exactly what they’re doing and saying now.

InterestedObserver on August 2, 2010 at 4:02 PM

Since she can’t tell the truth to save her life, doesn’t “not nervous” really mean that she is nervous?

RBMN on August 2, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour that she was “not nervous at all” about Democrats keeping control after the upcoming midterms

Why should she be nervous about that? At this point there is such a slim chance of it happening that she can relax and start packing.

Rocks on August 2, 2010 at 4:08 PM

She would raise her eye brow at this if she could…

right2bright on August 2, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour that she was “not nervous at all” about Democrats

….and even if she were, we wouldn’t know just by looking at her face ;-)

macncheez on August 2, 2010 at 4:10 PM

Is is just me, or is there something really entertaining and satisfying in hearing Obama sound a lot like Bush at just about this same time before the big election in 2008?

I know Bush said something similar to Republicans running for office back in ’08, no?

marybel on August 2, 2010 at 4:13 PM

Nancy, meet Kevin Bacon.

trubble on August 2, 2010 at 4:13 PM

Nancy is just auditioning for Alfred E Newman’s job: what, me worry?

karl9000 on August 2, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Pelosi has bigger fish to fry.

Like the Prince of Darkness asking her to hand over her very soul.

It’s the only way I can explain a woman this stupid, ignorant, corrupt and all around uselessly worthless rising to the top and staying there.

Pure, unadulterated, rotten, stinking evil is the Democrat Pelosi.

Seems to me though, she got the better deal.

For her raisin of a soul, she got all this?

NoDonkey on August 2, 2010 at 4:17 PM

Nancy the psychotic cares nothing for her colleagues, only that she retains the gavel even by the slightest of margins. This is the first time in memory that the Crats are not circling the wagons to protect their own (Rangel, Waters). The level of animosity must be historic. It’s going to be every man for himself out on the stump, but the rank and file have a problem – they not only backed the leadership’s agenda, they also went along with the undemocratic way it was rammed through. A lot of people have taken notice.

paul1149 on August 2, 2010 at 4:19 PM

Pelosi has one helluva poker face.

VibrioCocci on August 2, 2010 at 4:22 PM

I still have a hard time understanding these people who change their mind so easily every year. Either you are for high taxes and outrageous spending or you are for lower taxes and a less outrageous spending(LOL). Freedom or Slavery. Liberty or Tyranny.

It was pretty obvious that this was Carter all over again.

jeffn21 on August 2, 2010 at 4:26 PM

Pelosi has one helluva poker face.

VibrioCocci on August 2, 2010 at 4:22 PM

Poker chip face, maybe. You know, smooth and colorful in the center and hard and crinkly around the edges…

karl9000 on August 2, 2010 at 4:27 PM

Let’s be clear about where we all would be if unemployment were actually at 4 percent right now.

Unemployment was below 5% in November 2006, and Republicans lost Congress because of high deficits (people thought they were high then), the war in Iraq was going badly, the response to Katrina in Louisiana was bungled, and a few Republicans were embroiled in the Abramoff scandal.

If San Fran Nan would take a bus trip between Washington and Frisco with lots of stops along the way, she would find lots of reasons to be VERY nervous. But she can’t hear the screaming from 30,000 feet overhead.

Now unemployment is twice as high, budget deficits are six times as high as in 2006, the war in Afghanistan is going badly, the response to the oil spill in Louisiana was bungled, and a few Democrats (Rangel, Waters) are embroiled in scandal. Anyone notice any parallels here? Except the shoe is on the other foot, and not to mention that lil’ ol’ health-care thingy that a majority of voters want to repeal.

Steve Z on August 2, 2010 at 4:28 PM

Pelosi has one helluva poker Botox face.

VibrioCocci on August 2, 2010 at 4:22 PM

FIFY.

Steve Z on August 2, 2010 at 4:29 PM

too early for this?

cmsinaz on August 2, 2010 at 4:35 PM

Never celebrate until it’s a done deal. Be vigilent.

Obama turned box-office boffo to box-office poison in a record amount of time.

They’ll be visting their ‘ailing’ mother, no matter which day he comes.

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2010 at 4:38 PM

In this case, the combination of an aggressive Democratic agenda, causing a weak jobs recovery and a large deficit has created a political environment very different from the one 18 months ago

FIFY Stuart

txmomof6 on August 2, 2010 at 4:39 PM

Back in 1994 I told everyone I knew the Rs would take the House by 50 seats. At the time, I didn’t know that large of a seat change had not occurred in decades, let alone for Rs. However, Dems had controlled the house almost every year since I was born in 1955, if not every year, can’t exactly remember. Everyone I know thought I was nuts at the time. However, I was feeling the angst all the way to my bones back then. And mostly people were pissed off at the THREAT of Hillarycare.

Now we actually HAVE Obamacare, and he has single handedly added a few trillion to our national debt. The Dem Congress has raised spending 38% in just 4 years. I think I read that somewhere today. I think the DC insiders are even more removed from Main Street now, and they are just not aware they are not plugged in to the rest of America. The media has jumped the shark since 1994 and don’t even pretend to be objective anymore. Therefore THEY don’t know how much they are out of touch, either.

I have been telling people there will be a 60 seat flip this year. This article lays it all out there, a net of 64 seats if you just assume all the seats in play go in the direction of that graphic. However, I will go one step further, I doubt all of the R seats in play will go Dem. AND, I still think they will run the table in the Senate.

What the DC elite ruling class insiders and the elite media just does not understand is that the average every day American is chilled to the bone in fear that the country they know and love is slipping from their grasp. They want to save the Republic and the first step is voting the progressives out of office, at all levels of government. We have a tidal wave coming in November. Election night is going to be fun watching all of the heads explode on TV as reality hits those talking heads right in the face.

karenhasfreedom on August 2, 2010 at 4:39 PM

hasn’t happened.

Just a thought.

lorien1973 on August 2, 2010 at 3:52 PM

No wonder Krugman wants jobs created…he woke up too late.

The jobs issue will ‘kill’ them and it should. They focused on the narcissist’s Utopian nightmare instead of jobs. They deserve to be punished for such arrogance, and they will be.

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2010 at 4:41 PM

Pelosi has one helluva poker face.

VibrioCocci on August 2, 2010 at 4:22 PM

..well, I for one would not want to poke ‘er face for fear of getting spattered by Botox.

The War Planner on August 2, 2010 at 4:46 PM

Count it.

Inanemergencydial on August 2, 2010 at 4:48 PM

The chickens are coming home to roost.

Schadenfreude on August 2, 2010 at 4:59 PM

Take tow or thre dem switch overs or previously unengaged voters with you! It is still precinct by precinct, district by district!
Use the anger and unease to inform, engage, motivate and deliver the voters and votes. If we each take two we will over whelm them!
Do not forget grandma and others in the nursing homes if they can’t or won’t go get them absentee ballots and help them fill them out. Do not let the nice nurse help them EVER AGAIN

REMEMBER, TOGETHER, IN NOVEMBER!

dhunter on August 2, 2010 at 5:12 PM

Dang! should be two or three dem switchovers!

dhunter on August 2, 2010 at 5:14 PM

We ALL need to be working hard NOW to EARN a Republican Congress and Senate in November!

Please find out who the best candidates are in your areas and then contact their campaigns to find out how you can help.

The work we do EARLY in the election season will have the biggest impact on the election results, since it takes time and hard work to build momentum.

wren on August 2, 2010 at 5:44 PM

Why should Nancy be worried? The fix is in as ACORN and the SEIU are all ready to go to work

GFW on August 2, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Why should Nancy be worried? The fix is in as ACORN and the SEIU are all ready to go to work

GFW on August 2, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Exactly why we need to take two or three previous Dems or nonvoters EACH to the polls with us and engage older non-mobile voters>
We must fight this fight or become a socialist cesspool and for the rest of our lives dream of what used to be!

dhunter on August 2, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Democrats won a special election in New York’s open 20th district by demonizing Republicans for waffling on, then opposing, Obama’s economic stimulus plan.

It seems to me that the Dumbocrats won because a bunch of RINOs in the local Republican party screwed up the nomination process. Rothenberger is another one who is “simply not worth listening to.”

burt on August 2, 2010 at 6:21 PM

The sad thing is that only about 20% of the House seats are considered “in play”. Those who don’t pay income tax plus all those state and federal union workers will vote Donk until the 6th seal is broken.

SunSword on August 2, 2010 at 6:21 PM

Nancy has NEVER been worth listening to.

GarandFan on August 2, 2010 at 6:23 PM

Conservatives have a huge advantage already: we know what mid-terms are. We know what Congress is, and does. We don’t need to be “educated”.

Many (if not most) Obama voters came out for the HopeNChange…they were blinded by personality. Now that the whole “free gas and rent” didn’t come through, many of them will NOT vote in mid-terms.

Grace_is_sufficient on August 2, 2010 at 7:21 PM

So what happens to Pelosi if (and when) House Democrats are devastated in November? I realize that she looses the speakership of course, but what happens to her politically? Won’t she bare a lost of the blame? Won’t all those people she’s been pushing around for the last several years be able to get their revenge?

munch…munch…munch…

29Victor on August 2, 2010 at 7:26 PM

We need a veto-proof majority. What is that number…anyone?

SouthernGent on August 2, 2010 at 9:40 PM

It has to happen. This nonsense has got to come to an end.

johnnyU on August 2, 2010 at 9:45 PM