Q-poll in Florida shows Senate race mainly unchanged

posted at 10:55 am on July 30, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Today’s Quinnipiac poll doesn’t give Marco Rubio very much good news.  Since the last poll seven weeks ago, Crist’s support has fallen back slightly, but he still maintains a five-point edge over Rubio among registered voters.  That lead extends to six points if Kendrick Meek wins the Democratic nomination, but Quinnipiac warns Crist that either Democrat could become a problem if Democratic voters start coming home to the party:

In the Senate race, Crist’s lead is based on getting half the independent voters, about 20 percent of Republicans and about 40 percent of Democrats. His 53 – 37 percent voter approval of his job as Governor probably is a factor in his lead.

Crist’s margin in the general election matchups compare to a 37 – 33 – 17 percent lead with Meek in the race and 40 – 33 – 14 percent with Greene running in a June 9 poll.

“There has been little movement in the Senate race over the past two months. Gov. Charlie Crist’s small lead comes as neither Democrat breaks 20 percent in the trial heats. If that were to be the case in November, Gov. Crist would have a very good chance to win. But if the Democratic nominee can move into the mid-to-high 20s, Crist’s chances decrease substantially,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Crist also has a significant edge on name recognition in Florida, which will certainly change after the primaries. When that happens, those numbers may start moving on their own:

Florida voters give Crist a 49 – 35 percent favorability rating with 13 percent who say they don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Rubio has a 35 – 24 percent favorability, with 38 percent who don’t know enough about him. The “don’t know enough” score for Meek and Green is 64 percent each.

“At this point, Crist’s edge is in name identification. When those numbers even out, as they will to a large degree, we’ll have a better picture of how the race stands,” Brown said.

The big risk for Crist is keeping Democrats on board. Republicans may start cheering for Jeff Greene, the self-funding billionaire challenging Kendrick Meek for the nomination.  Meek has utterly failed to connect to voters statewide despite being a Congressman for more than seven years from the Miami area.

Greene, on the other hand, has bottomless pockets and would be expected to run a big campaign.  He has more upside with Democrats and may be seen as more moderate than Meek, especially on economic matters.  That would directly erode Crist’s standing with the moderate Democrats he has been attracting, and would create a fight on the center-Left.  Rubio could then win the center and the Right and beat both in a three-way race.

Bear in mind, also, that Quinnipiac polls registered voters, not likely voters, as Rasmussen does.  The latter model is more predictive — and likely voters are presumably more interested in the race, which means they know the candidates better.  I’d expect the Q-poll numbers to drift towards Rasmussen’s than the other way around.


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Ugh!!

canopfor on July 30, 2010 at 10:57 AM

Well,I think its time to send Rubio,
a,

Real Life – Send Me An Angel (extended version)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TAyjUVR7q0&feature=fvst

canopfor on July 30, 2010 at 11:00 AM

Relax. After the Dem. primary things will really heat up. Crist has given Rubio lots of ammunition to use aganist him. We just need to calm down and wait for the fire works to start.

sandee on July 30, 2010 at 11:02 AM

You would think voters in Florida would see through the empty facade that is Charlie Crist that they would not even bother giving the tan-sprayed fool the time of day.

However, keep in mind that a couple of years ago, voters in Orlando were bamboozled to elect certified assclown lunatic Alan Grayson to Congress.

Maybe it is spending all that time in the Florida sun that affects the thinking process or something.

pilamaye on July 30, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Some good polling news from NV: The Mason-Dixon poll, which last had Angle down 7, now has her down 1.

Jon0815 on July 30, 2010 at 11:06 AM

Crist is a proud Mongrel-American.

abobo on July 30, 2010 at 11:10 AM

OT: Snooki for President

I don’t go tanning anymore because Obama put a 10% tax on tanning. McCain would never put a 10% tax on tanning. Because he’s pale and would probably want to be tan

Cracker tax

faraway on July 30, 2010 at 11:10 AM

Let me get this straight:

We’re heading into one of the biggest anti-incumbent elections in decades.

The big issue is fiscal responsibility and Crist is running on a platform that we can solve the Social Security crisis by “cutting out wasteful spending”

And you’re telling me that Crist, who embodies everything that the Tea Party opposes and represents the proto-typical elitist politician who believes that he is “entitled” to the job, is going to win in this environment?

No, I don’t believe it.

PackerBronco on July 30, 2010 at 11:13 AM

The only poll that counts is the one taken in November. If Floridians elect Crist then so be it, they will have chosen to put a pandering, lying, cheating, asshat in high office.

Like moron Franken up here in Minnesota, electing Crist says more about the people of Florida than it does about Crist, considering his negatives are right out in the open.

Bishop on July 30, 2010 at 11:15 AM

The only poll that counts is the one taken in November. If Floridians elect Crist then so be it, they will have chosen to put a pandering, lying, cheating, a$shat in high office.

Like moron Franken up here in Minnesota, electing Crist says more about the people of Florida than it does about Crist, considering his negatives are right out in the open.

Bishop on July 30, 2010 at 11:16 AM

faraway on July 30, 2010 at 11:10 AM

LOVE IT!

angryed on July 30, 2010 at 11:18 AM

Nothing to see here … Rubio wins this easily.

HondaV65 on July 30, 2010 at 11:18 AM

And you’re telling me that Crist, who embodies everything that the Tea Party opposes and represents the proto-typical elitist politician who believes that he is “entitled” to the job, is going to win in this environment?

He was never going to get the Tea Party vote.

YYZ on July 30, 2010 at 11:22 AM

faraway on July 30, 2010 at 11:10 AM

LOL!!

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2010 at 11:28 AM

I have about six weeks before I worry, and only a little then.

Cindy Munford on July 30, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Rubio wins by double digits.

You can take that to the bank.

there it is on July 30, 2010 at 11:35 AM

The “Independent” Candidate and the “Democratic” Candidate are running on essentially the same platform.

Rubio just has to contrast himself from them to win.

That’s exactly what Pawlenty did to win his first Governors race. To his left were the DFL candidate, the Independant, and the Green Party guy. They all had the same policies. Pawlenty just had to grab the right of center vote.

jpmn on July 30, 2010 at 11:37 AM

A little OT:

New poll in NV shows Reid up by 1. This is the same pollster that had Reid up by 7 a couple of weeks ago.

angryed on July 30, 2010 at 11:42 AM

Rush this morning was throwing out the redmeat that Trent Lott thinks the Tea Partiers are fleeing and will send “normal” to DC. This is your state Rush. Get fired up.

Marcus on July 30, 2010 at 11:47 AM

fleeting I meant

Marcus on July 30, 2010 at 11:48 AM

Hold your fire until you see the whites of his eyes amidst the orange glow.

CC

CapedConservative on July 30, 2010 at 12:01 PM

Go Greene!

My wife missed the deadline to change her D party affiliation before the primaries, so I’m encouraging her to “Go Greene!”

Greene and Crist will be battling for the same voters, and Greene has firepower enough to hammer away at Crist.

I believe Crist is only doing as well as he is because of name recognition right now, and people aren’t paying much attention. That will change bigtime come September.

If the meeting between Crist and Rubio on Fox News Sunday a while ago is any indication, I can’t wait to see Rubio eat Crist’s lunch in the debates (hoping there’s more than one).

….and in the Sarasota area, there’s no sign of a Meeks campaign going on…

Rubio 2010

ornery_independent on July 30, 2010 at 12:04 PM

Quinnipac is not the best poll, however if 38 percent do not know enough about Rubio, that is a significant percentage. In a final election, he would lose votes.

However, Rubio has time to make a name. Right now, he is a guy with good grooming who speaks extremely well and shows up for interviews. Missing is an event (not a fund raiser) but an action, a sentence or a slogan to create identity

For instance, had Jindal stood up to the feds by riding a dredge barge out to sea with intent to build a berm against the oil spill, and been captured on tape being turned around by the feds, he would have had permanent name recognition as a champion of the little guy, friend of the environment etc. He still got in the news more than other governors rattling off a list of projects

Rubio needs to find something honest, something concrete, because no name recognition is an opportunity and much much better than bad name recognition

entagor on July 30, 2010 at 12:13 PM

Surely there’ll be debates this fall and surely they’ll decide this race. Until then this is all just traffic driver and space filler.

But I just can’t see Crist surviving once people really start paying attention.

Typhoon on July 30, 2010 at 12:32 PM

The big risk for Crist is keeping Democrats on board. Republicans may start cheering for Jeff Greene, the self-funding billionaire challenging Kendrick Meek for the nomination. Meek has utterly failed to connect to voters statewide despite being a Congressman for more than seven years from the Miami area.

At some point, both Rubio and the Democrat nominee will demand that Crist say with which party he will caucus in the Senate. If Crist decides to caucus with Republicans, he will lose all Democrat support, and Rubio could blast him with “why run as an Independent, if you’re really a Republican?” If Crist decides to caucus with the Democrats, he will lose ALL Republican support, and the Democrat nominee will paint himself as the “real” Democrat and blast Crist as a turncoat, a la Arlen Specter. Either way, Crist will be blasted from both sides, and will probably fade into third place. The crucial question will be whether Rubio can beat the Dem nominee.

These pre-primary polls mean very little. The fun begins after the Dem primary.

Steve Z on July 30, 2010 at 1:32 PM

At some point, both Rubio and the Democrat nominee will demand that Crist say with which party he will caucus in the Senate

Steve Z on July 30, 2010 at 1:32 PM

What if he refuses to declare, and the democratic party media refuses to discuss his refusal? Can he get away with that?

slickwillie2001 on July 30, 2010 at 1:50 PM