Angle bounces back in latest Mason-Dixon poll

posted at 1:25 pm on July 30, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showed Harry Reid clinging to a two-point lead among likely voters, 45/43, which sounded better than the previous Mason-Dixon poll that showed Angle back six at 43/37.  The Rasmussen poll’s series on the race didn’t really show any movement, though, which created some skepticism about whether Angle had really rebounded.  However, today’s Mason-Dixon poll removes that doubt:

The numbers: Reid 43%, Angle 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Mason-Dixon poll from two weeks ago, though, Reid had an even stronger lead of 44%-37%, as a result of relentless attacks on Angle’s right-wing positions and her steady stream of gaffes. The TPM Poll Average gives Reid a lead of 44.3%-42.6%.

As Eric Kleefeld reports at TPM, the bleeding stopped because Angle got on the air and started responding to the massive wave of attack ads Harry Reid launched after the primaries.  Angle has begun running her ads in Nevada and making her case.  Reid apparently can only get so far by going negative, and that limit is around the 43-45% mark.

However, Angle does have a problem if Reid’s negative attacks continue to score.  Nevada voters have a None of the Above option on the ballot, which I discovered while in Las Vegas for the Right Online conference last week. The option does not toss out an election, even if NOTA wins a majority of the votes.  The candidate with the plurality will win in that case.

That could become a key problem for either candidate, depending on how angry the electorate is with Reid and how uncomfortable they get with Angle.  It will force both candidates to build a positive case for their election to the Senate, which Angle can probably do better than Reid at the moment.  Reid’s only argument for his re-election is a continuation with the status quo that has him mired at the 43% level in the race.  But Angle has to prepare herself to play better defense while continuing to go on offense, or Reid’s attacks could bleed less-unhappy voters from the GOP to NOTA.  That certainly seems to be his strategy, but as the latest poll shows, it’s not wearing well on Nevadans.


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Watching the horse race causes anxiety. All that matters is the results on election day.

Weebork on July 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Weebork on July 30, 2010 at 1:27 PM

Yes, but with another candidate it wouldn’t be a race at all.

lorien1973 on July 30, 2010 at 1:29 PM

Yes, but with another candidate it wouldn’t be a race at all.

lorien1973 on July 30, 2010 at 1:29 PM

That’s a complete guess on your part.

HondaV65 on July 30, 2010 at 1:30 PM

Reid is falling short.

rob verdi on July 30, 2010 at 1:31 PM

Shrill substitute teacher versus the mortician.

PrezHussein on July 30, 2010 at 1:31 PM

I really do hope that the folks of Nevada will just vote Sharon Angle-and Rid the State of it’s Tyrannist Senator.
Vote for the Liberty and Freedom for the Nation.

hawkman on July 30, 2010 at 1:32 PM

Yes Ed I think “gulp” posts are a bit premature 4 weeks from Labor Day and to my knowledge before any face to face televised debates. Tell your buddy.

Marcus on July 30, 2010 at 1:40 PM

The numbers: Reid 43%, Angle 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Mason-Dixon poll from two weeks ago, though, Reid had an even stronger lead of 44%-37%

2 weeks ago were they premature ejaculations of delight by Reid ?

Jeff2161 on July 30, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Are Rubio and Angle expected to appear in respective debates in the future? Tell me the numbers after. That (those) debate(s) will be make or break for Marco and Sharron.

Marcus on July 30, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Yes Ed I think “gulp” posts are a bit premature 4 weeks from Labor Day and to my knowledge before any face to face televised debates. Tell your buddy.

Angle will get massacred in the debates. You should hope she says no to televised debates and runs away like she has done with the rest of the media.

cornfedbubba on July 30, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Here’s what the contest comes down to:

1)Harry Reid is equivalent to a beat up Sonny Liston who entered the ring against Cassius Clay impaired or injured (his own personal political baggage + Obama’s approval/disapproval of 39/55).

2)Sharron Angle is the challenger who going up against the champ finds out early that he is still formidable as he came out in the first two rounds of the fight with “all guns blazing” hoping for a quick knockout before Angle could capitalize on Reid’s vulnerability (taking a 7 point lead in the polls).

3)The early knockout failed; Angle withstood the early barrage of Reid and now imho it will settle into a lengthy fight for superiority but I think like all contenders Angle will gain more confidence as she moves into the seventh round, tenth round and beyond, knowing that although she hasn’t got the superstar capability to knock Reid out (imho) that she can more than manage to score significant points on the champ and squeak out a win on a split decision (a one or two point win). And Reid imho will begin to doubt himself as poll consistently show that he is not running away with the election and that Obama’s popularity in Nevada continues to plummet.

technopeasant on July 30, 2010 at 1:47 PM

cornfedbubba on July 30, 2010 at 1:47 PM

There’s a chicken who wishes you’d stop. He’s sore and needs a break.

lorien1973 on July 30, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Now he’s just Harry!

Cicero43 on July 30, 2010 at 1:50 PM

I’m certain that Angle is getting all kinds of advice. I wonder if any of it is worth a sh*t. That’s the problem…she has to decide what advice is worthwhile and what is crap. It can be very difficult to see the forest when you’re surrounded by trees. It comes down to whom do you trust. I hope she chooses wisely.

Extrafishy on July 30, 2010 at 1:54 PM

As November approaches and the Dems get more and more desparate, we can expect to see a bunch of Dem and media push polls. There will be a lot of bogus numbers out there and no one should sweat (or enjoy) any specific poll results they see.

tommyboy on July 30, 2010 at 1:58 PM

That’s a complete guess on your part.

HondaV65 on July 30, 2010 at 1:30 PM

No, not really.

29Victor on July 30, 2010 at 2:15 PM

I wonder sometimes how conservatives will ever get their game back with you hand-wringers and bed-wetters. “Oh, my!, she’s falling.” “Look, she’s up again! How long will it last?” Exactly the anxiety democrats hope for. Show some frickin confidence.

rrpjr on July 30, 2010 at 2:25 PM

She may not be smooth but at least she understands the scope of the constitution….donate to her.

GardenGnome on July 30, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Note that undecideds broke to Angle BIG TIME.

Angle +8, Reid -1

Among nonpartisan voters, who will likely determine the election, Angle is now leading Reid with 43 percent to 36 percent. The last poll had Reid over Angle, 37 percent to 35 percent. Those independent voters are less happy with Obama (60 percent disapproval) and the direction of the country (71 percent wrong track), than overall statewide voters, which plays in Angle’s favor.

“The independents are the most volatile and are the ones who are going to decide this race,” pollster Coker said. “I still see this as an anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat cycle.”

fred5678 on July 30, 2010 at 3:22 PM

Sharron Angle has said repeatedly that it’s “not my job as a US Senator” to create jobs for Nevadans.

Sharron Angle wants to get rid of the Dept of Education. What about our schools?

Sharron Angle thinks “the $20B BP Gulf Recovery account is clearly a slush fund.”

These are some of the Reid ads running constantly here in Vegas. They sound like great promo for Angle to me. More please, Harry.

Fishoutofwater on July 30, 2010 at 3:28 PM

Read this article about Angle’s final victory over all three branches of her own state government when they all ignored their own state constitution.

Angle mortgaged her house to pay legal fees to sue Gov. Guinn after he strong-armed the legislature to ignore 2/3 majority requirement in the state constitution to pass a huge tax increase. Eventually moot SCOTUS case, but 3 years later new NV Supreme Court vindicated her.

Why not donate to someone who mortgaged her own home to defend the constitution?

No whining allowed. Only contributing.

fred5678 on July 30, 2010 at 3:29 PM

Angle needs to get THIS STORY out in ads.

After giving 300,000 construction jobs to illegal aliens, Reid only has 274,500 more jobs to just BREAK EVEN!!

+22,000 for CityCenter
+3,500 for teachers
- 300,000 for jobs to illegal aliens
——————–
- 274,500

As the “all powerful” Majority Leader, he deserves credit for ALL of his actions.

fred5678 on July 30, 2010 at 3:35 PM

This is a race worth throwing a few bucks to every week or so to keep angle competitive to beat this thief and get him out of office.

karenhasfreedom on July 30, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Yes, but with another candidate it wouldn’t be a race at all.

lorien1973 on July 30, 2010 at 1:29 PM

lorien, I am not sure about that. Sue Lowden trailed Reid by 5 points in one poll done in May.

Regardless, Angle will be fine.

The GOP should worry more about Rubio in FL and Fiorina in CA. I predict those races will be a lot tougher to win than NV with Angle.

Norwegian on July 30, 2010 at 4:00 PM

She may not be smooth but at least she understands the scope of the constitution….donate to her.

GardenGnome on July 30, 2010 at 2:26 PM

Smooth implies that deception comes easily. I’m glad that Angle is secure with her convictions. Lest people forget, Palin didn’t come across smoothly during her encounter with Couric, admitted it herself. And everyone bragged how slick Obama was SAID TO BE. Romney’s smooth. gag When someone’s smooth, I demand the verify prior to any trust.

maverick muse on July 30, 2010 at 4:03 PM

I’m certain that Angle is getting all kinds of advice. I wonder if any of it is worth a sh*t. That’s the problem…she has to decide what advice is worthwhile and what is crap. It can be very difficult to see the forest when you’re surrounded by trees. It comes down to whom do you trust. I hope she chooses wisely.

Extrafishy on July 30, 2010 at 1:54 PM

Fred Thompson brought up Angle’s situation campaigning a short term enterprise involving millions of dollars spent rapidly, as an example of any Tea Party candidate. He emphasized the paramount importance in any campaign to have a manager and staff that are on top of things.

maverick muse on July 30, 2010 at 4:06 PM

Yes, but with another candidate it wouldn’t be a race at all.

lorien1973 on July 30, 2010 at 1:29 PM

That’s a complete guess on your part.

HondaV65 on July 30, 2010 at 1:30 PM

I think it is more than a guess. There was a reason the Democrats wanted Angle to win. I just hope she can beat Reid. He needs to go.

Terrye on July 30, 2010 at 4:19 PM

I agree that Angle was the least electable nominee. But she won fair and square, so Rs need to unite behind her.

Still, if I send a check (besides the ones I already sent to the NRSC and the NRCC), it’s going to Florida.

Tres Angelas on July 30, 2010 at 4:54 PM

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Angle just “barely squeaked in” with 40% in a 12 way race, after “trailing” Lowden most of the campaign in published polls. Check the union members on her FaceBook page wanting to meet with her as an indication of her broad support. And the recent big swing in independents to Angle bodes well.

Read the final primary results, get with the program, and DONATE. Otherwise, you’re just surrendering to Harry Reid.

Angle , Sharron GOP 70,420 40%
Lowden , Sue GOP 45,861 26%
Tarkanian , Danny GOP 40,924 23%
Chachas , John GOP 6,925 4%
Christensen , Chad GOP 4,803 3%
None of these NPD 3,089 2%
Parson , Bill GOP 1,483 1%
Bernstein , Gary GOP 698 0%
Mabey , Garn GOP 462 0%
Stern , Cecilia GOP 355 0%
Nadell , Brian GOP 235 0%
Suominen , Terry GOP 223 0%
Marinch , Gary GOP 178 0%

fred5678 on July 30, 2010 at 4:58 PM

If Harry Reid can’t be defeated in Nevada, this nation is already too far gone.

xblade on July 30, 2010 at 6:18 PM

I wonder sometimes how conservatives will ever get their game back with you hand-wringers and bed-wetters. “Oh, my!, she’s falling.” “Look, she’s up again! How long will it last?” Exactly the anxiety democrats hope for. Show some frickin confidence.

rrpjr on July 30, 2010 at 2:25 PM

+1

My thoughts exactly. Because we are NOT the blind, emotion-driven sheep, we all tend to be independent-minded and may, at times, fail to get involved or be supportive of candidates who are far superior to the ‘rats we currently are cursed with.
And then, once said candidate has managed to eek out a victory in spite of a total lack of support –you know, the electorate votes in our guy/gal because they hate the ‘rat more than they like the conservative, because even conservatives don’t like other conservatives–rookie conservative elected official will unerringly say or do something stupid that “inspires” all of the “I-told-you-so” conservatives to pressure the few faithful supporters into jumping off the ship.

Then those naysayers will call out the few who remained faithfully on board the ship by calling them robots or something equally tired. All because people on our side think that if the opposition doesn’t swoon over our superior intellect and values, we don’t deserve to be in charge….

rwenger43 on July 30, 2010 at 6:42 PM

I’m here in Vegas. People HATE Harry the Reid with a passion, even libtards hate him now ’cause many are suffering from our 14% unemployment and the highest foreclosure rate in America. I have been telling HA that Angle is going to win since the primary.

Send her money! It’s put up or shut up time, have a little faith.

Mojave Mark on July 30, 2010 at 7:45 PM

Try not to freak out over summertime polls. They are notoriously unreliable and inaccurate, yet we are strangely drawn to them, as moths to a flame . . .

Adjoran on July 31, 2010 at 4:50 AM