Predictions on tomorrow’s Q2 GDP number

posted at 1:36 pm on July 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow, the Commerce Department releases its estimate of growth the second quarter of 2010, and the guessing game has already begun.  Will the economy show better growth than last quarter’s revised estimate of 2.7%, or will it confirm the pessimistic observations of the electorate about the economy?  The predictions coming from analysts are within a fairly narrow band, and none of which holds much promise to Democrats (figures provided by Amy Ritter, who researched the topic for me).

Let’s take them in descending order.  Even the most optimistic estimate, from Barclays, turns out to be a big comedown from their earlier estimate. They now predict a 3.0% annual growth rate:

Barclays GDP

Incorporating today’s weaker- than-expected news on business inventories and retail sales, we have cut our Q2 GDP forecast to 3.0%, below our previous tracking estimate of 3.5% and our official 4.5% forecast. Business inventories rose 0.1% in May, below our (0.3%) and the consensus (0.2%) forecast, and this suggests that inventory accumulation is unlikely to make as big a positive contribution to Q2 GDP as we previously projected. Meanwhile, as discussed below, although core retail sales rose 0.2% in June, downward revisions to April and May point to private consumption growth of about 2.5% in Q2 as a whole, compared to our previous forecast of 3.5%. Finally, May’s trade data suggest the trade deficit widened further in Q2, implying more of a drag on GDP growth than we had previously expected.

Market Watch reports that analysts they track predict that the number will come in below last quarter’s 2.7%:

The second quarter is getting no respect. Only a few weeks ago, the quarter was strutting along the beach. Now even economists are kicking sand in its face.

The main focus on the data in the coming week will be the first estimate of growth in the April-June quarter.

Economists said the second quarter real growth probably came in at an annual rate of just 2.5%, down from the 2.7% rate in the first quarter. …

Just a few weeks ago, economists were looking for a growth rate in the second quarter closer to 3%, and a month before that were predicting a number closer to 4%.

Why the reversal? MW says that the economic indicators from May and June turned gloomy enough to get analysts’ attention. Consumer spending has pulled back, jobs have not returned, and the stock market had its roughest quarter since the economic collapse. Their analysts expected the durable goods orders to drop 0.8%, too, and the drop of 1% may have them even more pessimistic than the weekend when MW published this analysis.

Speaking of pessimism, Macroadvisers says Q2 GDP will descend a little further, to 2.1%:

Since the start of the week incoming data have led us to revise down our estimate of Q2 GDP growth from 3.2% to just 2.1%.[1] Revisions to our GDP tracking estimate of this magnitude inside of a week are rare, and we cannot help but react with some concern to this downward revision.

The good news from Macroadvisers is that they see this as a final quarter of weakness, with indicators looking more positive for the rest of the year. However, this estimate is two weeks old; it missed the durable goods orders news from June, as well as the housing market data.

Finally, Goldman Sachs comes in at an even 2%, also a revision from a more optimistic previous estimate:

… the action by Goldman Sachs to cut its Q2 US GDP estimate to 2% from 3%, citing a loss of support from fiscal stimulus and inventory replenishment, state and local budget constraints, the excess supply of vacant housing, a lack of credit and weak employment gains.

GS also notes other bearish indicators, such as payrolls declining in 27 states in June, while also noting that it’s seen good news on corporate earnings and believe P/E ratios to be within range of a resumption of a bull market.

Even at the best estimate, 3.0%, it’s not going to be enough to make an argument for growth — and the problem is that most of the good news took place in April. Durable goods orders increased 2.9% in that month but dropped 0.8% in May and 1% in June. If consumer spending had increased during that period, it might make up for the orders drop, but consumer spending hit the skids at the same time. If I had to pick a number in this range, I’d guess 2.0%, but I’d be inclined to go a little lower. However, I don’t think that the economy tipped into negative territory, but merely declined to an even more anemic level of growth than seen in Q1.

What are your predictions? Select the growth level that comes closest to your own prediction:

Update: This won’t help, either:

Foreclosures rose in 3 of every four large U.S. metro areas in this year’s first half, likely ruling out sustained home price gains until 2013, real estate data company RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

Unemployment was the main culprit driving foreclosure actions on more than 1.6 million properties, the company said.

“We’re not going to see meaningful, sustainable home price appreciation while we’re seeing 75 percent of the markets have increases in foreclosures,” RealtyTrac senior vice president Rick Sharga said in an interview.

It’s really all about jobs. Until we quit penalizing and strangling capital, none of this will improve more than incrementally.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

What do we win if we guess right? I kid.

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM

It will initially be released as a ridiculously high number…then get revised down to a more realistic number once it’s off of the news cycle. Just like has been done since Obama took office.

AUINSC on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM

They will fake it to be as high as possible and revise it down later.

zmdavid on July 29, 2010 at 1:40 PM

Regardless of what it is, it will be “unexpectedly” something.

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 1:40 PM

Regardless of what it is, it will be “unexpectedly” something.

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 1:40 PM

unprecedented!

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:41 PM

Do you want to know what we think it will be tomorrow or months from now after several downward revisions?

flyfisher on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Whatever it is, it will be unexpected.

I’m going to say below 2% Or more likely, above 2% to later be revised downward. And the only reason it’s not negative is there’s been a lot of storm damage this year, making some of having to shell out $ to pay for repairs.

rbj on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

I say it will be above 3.5% because the Democrats need rabbit popping out of the hat right now and the COMMERCE Department – who calculates these numbers will rig them up good for Obama.

The DO work for Obama afterall.

HondaV65 on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

+2.9 revised to +1.3% in 6 weeks.

angryed on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

What do we win if we guess right? I kid.

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM

You win a “saved or created job”…

PatriotRider on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

So consumer confidence is low, foreclosures are high, durable goods production and sales are down, home sales and building are down, participation in the workforce is way down, but the economy is growing? Right.

One thing I know, whatever number they release will get quietly revised down in a few weeks. I say they announce 2.9% and it ends up below 2% within 5-6 weeks.

forest on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

Whatever number comes out, if this bho and team gives it, it is a lie! They never give us the true numbers. I do not believe anything that comes out of dc to be the truth.
L

letget on July 29, 2010 at 1:43 PM

Don’t forget yesterday’s beige book, Ed.

Weight of Glory on July 29, 2010 at 1:44 PM

What do we win if we guess right? I kid.
upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM

A free brick of moldy government cheese and an autographed photo of PBHO taken at the glitzy McCartney concert.

Bishop on July 29, 2010 at 1:44 PM

+2.9 revised to +1.3% in 6 weeks.

angryed on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

I guess we’re on the same page. Maybe there should be a poll on how much the number gets revised down.

forest on July 29, 2010 at 1:45 PM

Also a Fed Pres. was talking deflation and Japan today. And from what I understand the market doesn’t like those two words.

Weight of Glory on July 29, 2010 at 1:45 PM

GDP Growth 3.5% in 2004….MSM laments weakness in the economty

GDP growth 3% in 2010…MSM screams greatest economy EVAH!!

angryed on July 29, 2010 at 1:46 PM

Heh, several years ago a researcher did a study of GDP predictions by these so-called experts. If you had done nothing more than just predict whatever the number was the previous quarter, you would have done better than the average “expert”.

JamesB on July 29, 2010 at 1:47 PM

Yes, unexpectedly the recovery summer fizzles. Of course as stated repeatedly, no matter what it is it will be “revised” multiple times before actually showing how dismal things really are…and by then, who really cares right? /sarc off

PatriotPete on July 29, 2010 at 1:47 PM

It really does not matter Ed. The Regime numbers from our Ruling Class are just a bunch of propagandist crap anyway…

PatriotRider on July 29, 2010 at 1:47 PM

I predict that Endless Bummer Summer will lead into Down Fall for the Democrats and selected RINO’s!

pilamaye on July 29, 2010 at 1:48 PM

I’ve got a question I was hoping to have the opportunity to ask: Earnings, so far, have been beating estimates left and right. Many articles I’ve been reading say that that’s due to incredible cost cutting measures. Example: Sony smashed estimates, but they’ve closed 12 offices and fired thousands of employees. My questions is, will these earnings skew the GDP figures? Or are they not really connected in that kind of way?

Weight of Glory on July 29, 2010 at 1:48 PM

You win a “saved or created job”…

PatriotRider on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM

A free brick of moldy government cheese and an autographed photo of PBHO taken at the glitzy McCartney concert.

Bishop on July 29, 2010 at 1:44 PM

Well that is still sucks as much as finding out I may actually LOSE my job because of Federal Regs. One of Waxman’s “bills” may have a pebble in the pond effect on me, and a few thousand other people around the Nation because Waxman wants to take over State Wells. All of them.. oil, gas and water. So any Oil and Gas comp or even a water comp lookign for anything has to go to the Federal Government.

I found out Wednesday. Been a crappy week for me. :(

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:49 PM

How do we subtract the federal government borrowing to pay favors to their useful idiot voters?

I mean it’s not real money when you just borrow against your children.

tarpon on July 29, 2010 at 1:50 PM

The numbers will be good and later will unexpectedly be revised down.

GardenGnome on July 29, 2010 at 1:50 PM

Prediction: Will show a robust 5.3% growth… lots of fanfare and Joe Biden appearances… quietly “revised” to 2.2% growth in the coming weeks.

mankai on July 29, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Update: This won’t help, either:

Foreclosures rose in 3 of every four large U.S. metro areas in this year’s first half

Sure it will! If all those people no longer have to pay their mortgages, it’ll free up a huge chunk of their budgets to go shopping!

See? 0bamas plan to boost the economy will work, we just have to give it time.

UltimateBob on July 29, 2010 at 1:53 PM

Released number: 3.2%
Real number: -4.1%

Just like unemployment figures.

Lie, spin, revise, repeat.

Jeff2161 on July 29, 2010 at 1:54 PM

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:49 PM

Quit whining and open your local paper to the want-ads, there are literally millions of high-paying “green” jobs that need to be filled. Yes I said millions. Well ok maybe the number is more like 5 green jobs, but you might get lucky and land one of them.

Bishop on July 29, 2010 at 1:55 PM

I found out Wednesday. Been a crappy week for me. :(

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:49 PM

I know you hate me, but I’m sorry to hear that. Waxman sucks.

UltimateBob on July 29, 2010 at 1:55 PM

Doesn’t matter what the number is, the MSM will spin it to the One’s advantage as much as possible.

txmomof6 on July 29, 2010 at 1:56 PM

Lotta people here saying the same thing I was thinking. It will initially be optimistic, if not ‘high’ and will get revised down to its true number within a few weeks.

catmman on July 29, 2010 at 1:56 PM

Bishop on July 29, 2010 at 1:55 PM

LOL… I will get right on that.

UltimateBob on July 29, 2010 at 1:55 PM

I don’t hate you.

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:57 PM

What ever this number is, it will be revised lower in the future? Never trust the first number.

Oil Can on July 29, 2010 at 1:58 PM

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 1:49 PM

sorry to hear that, same thing here in AZ, back on the job of looking for a jobs. frakkin Obamanomics SUCK!

ginaswo on July 29, 2010 at 1:59 PM

Doesn’t matter what the number is, the MSM will spin it to the One’s advantage as much as possible.

txmomof6 on July 29, 2010 at 1:56 PM

2nd that…

cmsinaz on July 29, 2010 at 2:00 PM

Bear in mind that the announced GDP and the actual GDP are not the same thing.

Subtract out the government spending which has no business in there and you will get the actual value. I’m guessing 2.0, so sub out the Government spending of 2.0 and you get…. Zero. hmmmmm

dogsoldier on July 29, 2010 at 2:00 PM

MW says that the economic indicators from May and June turned gloomy enough to get analysts’ attention. Consumer spending has pulled back, jobs have not returned, and the stock market had its roughest quarter since the economic collapse. Their analysts expected the durable goods orders to drop 0.8%, too, and the drop of 1% may have them even more pessimistic than the weekend when MW published this analysis

Hey its the SUMMER OF RECOVERY thus I expect the White Hoos Propaganda Merchants and Journolisters to publish a rate of 5.7% only to be revised next downward next month to 1.2% on page 19-1/2 on a friday night. This news tomorrow will then be better than expected and OBiden and Fibbs can be vindicated in their bloviatin on The Summer Of Recovery!
Pinnochio Obama can continue his fund raisin and campaignin (I Hope) and be free to vacation six or seven more times befo “”the Girls go Back to their exclusive school that Pinnochio banned for other Mongrels!

See its easy peasy to be a Urinalist!

dhunter on July 29, 2010 at 2:00 PM

It’s really all about jobs. Until we quit penalizing and strangling capital, none of this will improve more than incrementally.

THANK YOU!!!

NTWR on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

the number doesn’t matter… haven’t you guys learned yet it is the spin that is driving perception. Headline spin is all it takes to ramp the market up 100 pts or so.

Chubbs65 on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

Sure it will! If all those people no longer have to pay their mortgages, it’ll free up a huge chunk of their budgets to go shopping!

See? 0bamas plan to boost the economy will work, we just have to give it time.

UltimateBob on July 29, 2010 at 1:53 PM

I read an estimate that people doing just that are contributing an extra $12B a month to consumer spending that wouldn’t be made if they were actually paying their debt obligations.

That adds up to about 0.5% GDP.

angryed on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

PS since sooo many folks are moving their income into ’10 to avoid the Taxapolocolypse, the GDP will be HIGHER than it really is for the 2nd half ’10, to wit 2.5% for 3rd 4th qtr average and THEN the REAL dip in ’11.

and everyone will be able to point at the tax hikes and say THAR SHE BLOWS! as the culprit. Dunces.

if we can all hang on til 2012 we can make it~
hang on sloopy!

ginaswo on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

I’m trying to stay optimistic – I chose 3.5%. Sadly, I think I’ll be wrong.

Red Cloud on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

If we’re talking REAL GDP, this is a no-brainer. It will be negative.

Nominal GDP growth is meaningless with these levels of deficit spending.

Here’s a graph for illustration.

Norwegian on July 29, 2010 at 2:01 PM

It will be a GRAND PRONOUNCEMENT AND DECLARATION OF RECOVERY, quietly revised down in a few weeks.

Good Lt on July 29, 2010 at 2:02 PM

It will initially be released as a ridiculously high number…then get revised down to a more realistic number once it’s off of the news cycle. Just like has been done since Obama took office.

AUINSC on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM

Exactly, I suspect the initial number to come out will be around 3.2%. By the time they hit the last revision (September I believe?) it will be around 2.3%

ButterflyDragon on July 29, 2010 at 2:03 PM

weight of glory

consumer spending is still 70% of American GDP. They can only hold the number up with govt printing money for so long and since we the people arent ‘buying it’ har-har, it will ultimately collapse, and possible at the same time the bond vigilantes come calling …

I still say the Fed is buying Treasuries and that is why it appears the bond vigilantes arent already freaking out…

if we added FSAN FRED to our books the way UK just did our debt would scare the shxt out of the debt market…surely they know it is coming…

ginaswo on July 29, 2010 at 2:04 PM

I voted “Above 3.5%”, because I believe it will just be another lie, and will be revised down later, which of course will go unreported.

ornery_independent on July 29, 2010 at 2:07 PM

The reported # will be 3% or above, allowing Maobama to say all is well in Recovery Summer. A month later that # will be revised down to around 0–with little or no reporting.

The gov’t #s are totally phony, reported only to manipulate you and me.

james23 on July 29, 2010 at 2:08 PM

ginaswo on July 29, 2010 at 2:04 PM

Thank you, ginaswo.

Weight of Glory on July 29, 2010 at 2:09 PM

I voted for 3%. Then they will revise it downward to about 2.3 or 2.4% later.

Johnnyreb on July 29, 2010 at 2:09 PM

I’m voting 1.5… with a caveat.

I’m voting for a real 1.5; which will be reported as a 2.4, then downrated several weeks after the initial news story when nobody is really watching or paying attention.

AUINSC on July 29, 2010 at 1:38 PM
zmdavid on July 29, 2010 at 1:40 PM
angryed on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM
forest on July 29, 2010 at 1:42 PM
PatriotPete on July 29, 2010 at 1:47 PM
GardenGnome on July 29, 2010 at 1:50 PM
mankai on July 29, 2010 at 1:53 PM
catmman on July 29, 2010 at 1:56 PM
ButterflyDragon on July 29, 2010 at 2:03 PM

I guess I didn’t need to clarify; everyone is thinking the same thing.

Thought for Ed, check the poll result vs. the initial release; and then check maybe 6 weeks after to compare with the revised numbers.

gekkobear on July 29, 2010 at 2:13 PM

Question: So, the game is what is announced tomorrow and not future revised downward numbers?

I would like to place an additional bet the Q2 numbers will be revised downward in the future.

EliTheBean on July 29, 2010 at 2:21 PM

Since they can’t tell the truth, I suspect the number will be modest and they will wait till after the election to adjust it down some more.

seven on July 29, 2010 at 2:25 PM

Whatever the numbers, I bet it will be UNEXPECTED!!!! Easy money, baby.

varnson on July 29, 2010 at 2:27 PM

“unexpectedly” high… then revised downward later on.

mjbrooks3 on July 29, 2010 at 2:35 PM

I guess 6.8.
Later to be revised down
To 0.2.

Haiku Guy on July 29, 2010 at 2:39 PM

Next to last chance to cook the numbers!

Little Boomer on July 29, 2010 at 2:39 PM

I will be shocked (SHOCKED!!!)
At whatever the number…
Doubly if it’s bad…

Haiku Guy on July 29, 2010 at 2:40 PM

I went with 2% which seems to be the prevailing sentiment thus far amognst the HotHeads, but for my nickel that’ll be the later revised number as they will inevitably try to put lipstick on the pig. My guess, to be precise, is they’ll initially announce 2.5% to cover up the revised number of 1.9%, the revised number never gets the press attention of the initial.

Keep in mind though these #’s aren’t what they used to as the metrics used to quantify have been heavily adjusted/massaged to lean towards a rosier outlook. By the metrics used in say, the 50′s-60′s, we’d probably roll in at 1% or flat.

Archimedes on July 29, 2010 at 2:50 PM

First reports will be up. Then next month the actuals will be revised down to “unexpected” levels.

Dandapani on July 29, 2010 at 2:59 PM

I chose 3.5%, but I expect it to be revised below 3% in a month.

Ted Torgerson on July 29, 2010 at 2:59 PM

What will happen is the number will be reported high. Then over the next few weeks, it will be revised downwards. So, the media will capitlize on the “great successes of the stimulus plan” and then look the other way as it gets revised down. It’s happened in the past (and this Administration has gotten away with it) and will happen again now. Especially with an election right around the corner.

djaymick on July 29, 2010 at 3:02 PM

AS IF any federal numbers mean any more than what the global Marxist elitists want to say to accomplish their own corrupt purposes.

Obama CONSISTENTLY does everything to desegregate sovereign entities into a global fiasco.

Cameron’s recent visit evoked Obama’s about face with Britain, initially “nothing special” swung back to “dearest” bff.

Yesterday I read of China’s particular spiral gone into spreading inflation that will knock most Chinese into starvation mode gone so far as they persist printing endless fiat money.

And today, Britain not only is wrapped in joblessness, but inflation along with everyone involved with the Euro.

And STAGFLATION is the British Bank’s announcement for everyone to prepare to embrace as a normal necessary mode of life.

With everything else that Britons have to worry about today, stagflation will soon be taking its place at the table. “Expect stagflation,” King is telling his countrymen. “It is a normal part of the recovery process. Do not be alarmed.”

It may be a normal part of a central-banking crack-up boom, but stagflation is a distinctly irregular financial phenomenon, and one that was for a long time denied by banking types. It is interesting to note that stagflation was really not an accepted phenomenon (except by unknown Austrian economists like Murray Rothbard) back in the 1970s when term was first coined. Mainstream economists liked to proclaim that the process wasn’t even possible. Of course overt Keynesianism was the rule of the day; Keynesian economists believed that once central banks began to stimulate the economy that jobs and growth would return. Hence, no possibility of stagnation (joblessness, etc.).

Now that Obama has embraced Cameron, propagandist for neocommunalism, we should prepare as Brits must for the inevitable but healthy coming stagflation.

Damn Keynesian Economists who pave the way for the elitists to fleece the flocks, as did US Treasury Secretary Paulson with Goldman Sachs, and Congress with TARP and every bail-out under the sun and earmarked under cover to boot. And damn Bush for unconstitutionally authorizing the Treasury Secretary to have complete autonomy. And now the new economy law deprives everyone any information from either the Treasury or the Federal Reserve as well, no right to ask for investigations, no need ever for any investigation.

maverick muse on July 29, 2010 at 3:05 PM

UNEXPECTED!

peski on July 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM

There is nothing to starve of but starvation itself.

maverick muse on July 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM

Here’s what you should expect the figure to be, even after the GDP data for 2010-Q2 is finalized in another two months time:

… we anticipate U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2010 will fall into a range between $13,107 billion and $13,642 billion, with a target value of $13,374.8 billion. To help narrow that down, we would give a roughly 70% probability that 2010-Q2′s real GDP for the U.S. will fall between $13,234 billion and $13,516 billion.

Those figures are given in terms of constant 2005 U.S. dollars (the same inflation-adjusted dollars that the BEA will report the inflation-adjusted GDP data.) If the actual GDP hits that target figure, that would correspond to a 4.0% annualized GDP growth rate.

On a funny side note, as for the BEA being hard at work in putting the final numbers together, we can confirm that they most certainly are working hard to put the latest figures together. Just yesterday, they used Google to search for “2010 second quarter gdp forecast” (where they encountered the first link in this comment!…)

ironman on July 29, 2010 at 3:10 PM

I say it will all be Obama style lies….imho

Vntnrse on July 29, 2010 at 3:13 PM

I did not see the correct number listed. The correct number is the square root of -1, or i. It is an imaginary number. Like all of the numbers generated by this administration.

TABoLK on July 29, 2010 at 3:24 PM

No growth around here. I’ve driven the length of Maine this week and can’t believe the number of businesses that are gone…shuttered…deceased. And the hotels and motels usually full up this time of year all have vacancies. Thank you BO. Thank you Democrat Congress. Whether through incompetence or deliberate plan, you certainly have done a number on Maine.

MainelyRight on July 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

I read just yesterday that Arizona resort occupancy levels are up from last year this time, 5-8% or so. Not much of a baseline, but could be anti-boycott tourists.

slickwillie2001 on July 29, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Here’s a FIRM prediction.

The number that comes out tomorrow will be higher than the revised number that will be quietly published later.

notagool on July 29, 2010 at 5:10 PM

2.0%, but revised downward twice over the next two months to 1.4%

The consumer is dead and ad boyz at JPM, GS, MS and the Fed are the only ones trading the markets. Classic day today:

> gap up–shaking out the overnight shorts
> drive downward 2%–shaking out the longs
> drive upward to shake out the late shorts

They may all be high-fiving over at 33 Liberty Street, but this is not going to end well. I’m betting that Q3 is the last up quarter for a while.

PD Quig on July 29, 2010 at 5:14 PM

It will be:
==================

1.88 GNP!
———

canopfor on July 29, 2010 at 6:34 PM

You left out an important choice on the poll: “(fill in the blank)% to be quietly revised downward to (fill in the blank)% next month”. Why should we expect honesty in the initial figure? Did anybody pay attention to last week’s housing figures? The great increase was as against the previous three months’ figures – all of which had been revised downward after their initial announcement. Oh, my choice would be “3% to be quietly revised downward to 2.1% next month”.

Hucklebuck on July 29, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Predictions on tomorrows Q2 GDP number

The admin will say 3.5%.
Three weeks later it will be “revised” down to 1.5%

DSchoen on July 29, 2010 at 7:07 PM

I guess I didn’t need to clarify; everyone is thinking the same thing.
gekkobear on July 29, 2010 at 2:13 PM

Looks like a lot of people are suffering from PRS (Pattern Recognition Syndrome)

2.0%, but revised downward twice over the next two months to 1.4%

my choice would be “3% to be quietly revised downward to 2.1% next month”.

will be higher than the revised number that will be quietly published later.

3.5%, but I expect it to be revised below 3% in a month.

the actuals will be revised down to “unexpected” levels.

announce 2.5% to cover up the revised number of 1.9%,

6.8. Later to be revised down To 0.2.

unexpectedly” high… then revised downward

wait till after the election to adjust it down

Q2 numbers will be revised downward

DSchoen on July 29, 2010 at 7:22 PM

I don’t know where these ‘economists’ are getting their numbers. Besides the usual sources, they may want to throw STATE government into their mixing bowl. We have a lot of states that are trying to put together next years budget – and the numbers don’t balance. Hell, Kaleefornia is $19 BILLION in the hole and the bastards in Sacramento are over a month past due on a new budget. Must be getting their cue from the asshats in Washington.

GarandFan on July 29, 2010 at 7:42 PM

I expect the advance report’s figure to be less than 1.0%, the first revision to be less than 0.0%, and the final revision to be less than -1.0% (negative one percent).

Kralizec on July 29, 2010 at 9:49 PM

How about a poll option for “Who cares!? GDP is a b.s. measure anyway. The MORE the government SPENDS, the greater the INCREASE in GDP.”

Eyas on July 29, 2010 at 9:56 PM