Blogger starting to despair over Florida Senate race

posted at 5:36 pm on July 29, 2010 by Allahpundit

People keep telling me not to sweat it, that Crist’s support will start to crumble after the primaries as Democrats fall in line behind their nominee. But that scenario’s contingent in part on the nominee being Kendrick Meek, not Jeff Greene, whose eccentricity may well send Dem operatives scrambling into Sunshine Charlie’s camp. And lo and behold, look who’s opened up a 10-point lead:

In the race for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, businessman Jeff Greene has jumped to a 33 – 23 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, with former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre at 4 percent. But 35 percent are undecided and 54 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind…

“If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front- runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute…

“Anything can happen in the interim, but since their opponents are unlikely to outspend them down the home stretch, they are both in enviable positions,” Brown added. “Both men also are being helped by the national anti-incumbent, anti-establishment wave evident in other primaries. Both men have battled their respective party hierarchies, quite successfully at this point.”

Meek led by two points last month before Greene’s money machine got rolling; I’m almost afraid to see what the lead will be next month. Not grim enough for you? Well, there’s another reason to worry: Crist actually polls unusually well for a Republican among black voters in Florida, which won’t matter so much if Meek is the Democratic nominee but could matter a lot if Greene is.

Crist, who is commonly referred to by allies as the state’s “first African-American governor,” has a long history of making inroads with black voters. He was the first GOP governor in the state to accept a convention invitation from the National Association for the NAACP, and last year he appointed a black judge to the state Supreme Court over a favorite of social conservatives. This spring, he vetoed legislation that would have cracked down on teacher tenure, a move that was panned by conservatives but well-received in city school districts…

Tom Eldon, a Democratic pollster who worked on Jim Davis’ 2006 gubernatorial campaign, said a Greene victory would also immediately make him a villain among Democrats who hoped he could become the first African-American senator to represent a southern state since Reconstruction.

“If not for Meek, Crist was in as good of a position as a former Republican governor could be to compete for these votes,” said Eldon. “Enter Greene as someone with a checkered past, no connections to the community and having, according to this scenario, defeated Meek in a nasty primary, Crist could expect to do very well.”

If Greene wins the nomination, the path to victory for Crist is clear: Woo as many black Democrats as possible, promise to caucus with the Dems if elected in exchange for help from Democratic fundraisers and strategists, then count on a coalition of Dems and centrist Republicans to carry you to a 40/35/25 win over Rubio and Greene. Oh, and in the meantime, don’t say anything about any hot-button subject lest it be used against you; as you’ll see below, that part of the strategy is, quite pathetically, already in full effect. Exit question: Is it time to worry? Inquiring eeyores want to know.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

I just don’t get it. Who is fooled by captain spray on?

Vera on July 29, 2010 at 5:38 PM

I just don’t get it. Who is fooled by captain spray on?

Vera on July 29, 2010 at 5:38 PM

Fake TAN… AWAY!

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 5:40 PM

I really don’t get this hand-wringing because Greene is leading. There’s no basis for it. The reasoning used in this post is pretty ridiculous. You might as well claim that if Greene wins, he has all the money to move the race

Apologetic California on July 29, 2010 at 5:40 PM

I just don’t get it. Who is fooled by captain spray on?

Vera on July 29, 2010 at 5:38 PM

I was…once upon a time not too long ago.

I just don’t get HOW this dolt’s poll numbers actually shot UP after his infamous dissing of the GOP that a couple weeks prior he said he wouldn’t do. then he say/does more stoopit stuff, and his poll numbers rise again!

And if the Dems do end up throwing their support to Crist, it’s over.

JetBoy on July 29, 2010 at 5:40 PM

I watched “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” on DVD last night.

Saw a bunch of Crist’s relatives dancing and singing.

BobMbx on July 29, 2010 at 5:41 PM

I think quite a few Dems are strategically voting for Greene in the primary, with the full intention of voting for Crist in the general.

Norwegian on July 29, 2010 at 5:41 PM

I’m worried.

taney71 on July 29, 2010 at 5:42 PM

I really really hate people with no scruples.

Tim Zank on July 29, 2010 at 5:43 PM

I hate this man.

Emily M. on July 29, 2010 at 5:43 PM

Acorn.. strikes again.

upinak on July 29, 2010 at 5:43 PM

Florida is so damned frustrating.

Somewhat off topic, is Crist going to make it to November? He looks decidedly unhealthy in that clip.

Missy on July 29, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Don’t you think Greene will spend a fortune in the fall on ads showing Crist with John McCain, and insisting he is a Republican and won’t run as an independent, etc.? He will run the attack ads on Crist so Rubio won’t have to. Democratic voters are not motivated in this election and Florida will be no different.

How stupid are Florida voters? – after all, they have had some pretty darn good and honest Governors and Senators before Crist came along. I don’t think they will buy Charlie’s snake oil this year.

rockmom on July 29, 2010 at 5:46 PM

A lot of people are not happy with the GOP so maybe that has something to do with the lack of outrage over this guys behavior?

sharrukin on July 29, 2010 at 5:46 PM

Two words, Allah: Ernest Greene. Demographics is destiny.

On the bright side, the fact that they are bringing in the big guns now to turn out the Democrats’ base for Meeks will insure that the base sticks with Meeks in November.

BuzzCrutcher on July 29, 2010 at 5:49 PM

Somewhat off topic, is Crist going to make it to November? He looks decidedly unhealthy in that clip.

Missy on July 29, 2010 at 5:45 PM

Was thinking the same thing…looks a bit Gollum-ish only with a fake tan and wig.

Bee on July 29, 2010 at 5:49 PM

If Greene wins the nomination, the path to victory for Crist is clear: Woo as many black Democrats as possible, promise to caucus with the Dems if elected in exchange for help from Democratic fundraisers

That actually seems like a bad idea. Crist can play coy before the election, but to promise to caucus with Dems before the vote will lose him some independents.

YYZ on July 29, 2010 at 5:52 PM

I live in Florida. Rubio is bringing in tons of cash. Rubio doesn’t appear to be spending any. There are so many “self-made” ads knocking the hell out of Crist that you couldn’t possibly use them all.

I suspect that some time between now and October, the purse strings will be loosened and you will see Crist’s numbers start falling like a stone.

I’m certainly not worried yet.

CC

CapedConservative on July 29, 2010 at 5:52 PM

i don’t like talking about this race or Reid’s race because they both scare me. I will cry if we don’t win at least 1:1 of these races.

deidre on July 29, 2010 at 5:53 PM

There is no way a “centrist” republican is going to vote for Crist. If they do they are not republican at all. Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats. I still can’t see any true Democrat voting for Crist either. He is a finger in the wind kind of guy. If the republicans take the Senate guess which side he will be on. Hopefully Floridians will see through this charlatan.

sandee on July 29, 2010 at 5:54 PM

Keeping in mind that Allah never thought that Scott Brown had a snowball’s chance in hell, I will consider his concerns. I can’t do much about them other then donate and vote but I will do what I can.

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 5:56 PM

Nooooo.

What?

Oh yes.

Heh.

LOL – your datebook must look like Jay Sherman’s, AP:

9:00 – MANIC
10:00 – DEPRESSIVE
11:00 – MANIC
12:00 – Lunch
1:00 – DEPRESSIVE
2:00 – MANIC

Good Lt on July 29, 2010 at 5:57 PM

And HELLO! Allah ~ There are already big-time trial lawyer firms handing money to Crist and dispensing with Meek entirely, while others are just waiting to see if Greene pulls it out. If he doesn’t, they jump ~ with their tobacco, etc. gazillions ~ to Charlie, too.

Which is why Marco hasn’t spent a dime YET. Save that money for when you know precisely who and what you’re up against. Spend the time doing exactly what he’s doing. getting around all over the state, introducing himself to folks, like up here in Pensacola. Visit the areas over and over again, so folks who didn’t have a chance to meet you the first time have a chance to meet you the next. Absolute best use of resources.

Let these other guys suck all the oxygen and money out of August whaling on each other while you putter around unscathed.

T

tree hugging sister on July 29, 2010 at 5:57 PM

Wouldn’t the squishy Republicans be the ones that would be all atwitter about a minority representing the party? You know how guilty they are about being pasty, no brownie points for voting for the orange guy.

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 5:58 PM

I don’t know, I still find it hard to believe that Crist can win. I think he has been using the oil spill to get a lot of publicity and all that, but when the time comes people might think twice. But general elections are iffy and Crist has a high approval rating.

It is so hard for me to understand how people could vote for Crist or Reid either one. Sometimes I wonder what people are thinking or drinking or smoking..

Terrye on July 29, 2010 at 5:59 PM

I live in California and I donated last week to Angle and Rubio. I’m not bothering on the candidates here. It looks like Bachmann is doing okay, so I will hold off on her. Last election that’s who I donated to.

sandee on July 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

No Greene is the guy you want. He gets a lot of attention, has a ton of his own money to spend and will put up a fight against Crist for Demcoratic votes while Rubio can concentrate on independents. With Greene in, it’s a two front war for Crist, that is good.

Daemonocracy on July 29, 2010 at 6:00 PM

Wouldn’t the squishy Republicans be the ones that would be all atwitter about a minority representing the party? You know how guilty they are about being pasty, no brownie points for voting for the orange guy.

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Do you have a racial bias against orange people?

CC

CapedConservative on July 29, 2010 at 6:01 PM

I live in Florida. Rubio is bringing in tons of cash. Rubio doesn’t appear to be spending any. There are so many “self-made” ads knocking the hell out of Crist that you couldn’t possibly use them all.

I suspect that some time between now and October, the purse strings will be loosened and you will see Crist’s numbers start falling like a stone.

I’m certainly not worried yet.

CC

CapedConservative on July 29, 2010 at 5:52 PM

I live in Cape Coral and I am not worried about Guv Orange Glow beating Rubio, who I believe is keeping his powder dry till after Labor Day.

My God, think of all the great ads that are practically writing themselves at this very minute. We haven’t seen a one of them yet in this market.

Which is leading me to believe what I do about this Rubio’s strategy in this race.

Rubio will win this.

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:02 PM

Well, if it helps to put it into perspective, this is the state which has given the world Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz…

cynccook on July 29, 2010 at 6:02 PM

Isn’t Greene the one whos’ yacht did some serious damage to a coral reef in the Caribbean?I think there is a judgment against him for the damage?Not very environmental of him if it is him.

sandee on July 29, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Separated at birth?

Alvin Greene.

Jeff Greene.

Emperor Norton on July 29, 2010 at 6:03 PM

Thats a real Kick-*ss Tan,eh!!!!!!

canopfor on July 29, 2010 at 6:04 PM

Well, if it helps to put it into perspective, this is the state which has given the world Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz…

cynccook on July 29, 2010 at 6:02 PM

And Rubio, Colonel Allen West, 8 good years with Jeb as our governor, and the 2000 Presidential election – which wasn’t pretty, but we got the job done.

Florida is NOT a lost cause.

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:04 PM

CapedConservative on July 29, 2010 at 6:01 PM

Apparently. And I’m not alone. /

Cindy Munford on July 29, 2010 at 6:07 PM

And Rubio, Colonel Allen West, 8 good years with Jeb as our governor, and the 2000 Presidential election – which wasn’t pretty, but we got the job done.

Florida is NOT a lost cause.

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:04 PM

Yeah, yeah. I know, just sayin, Florida’s seen its share of pain! LOL

cynccook on July 29, 2010 at 6:14 PM

I want Rubio in the Senate! Come one Florida!!!

terryannonline on July 29, 2010 at 6:14 PM

Yes, its time to worry, AND time for Rubio and Republicans to come up with a better strategy to defeat him!

American Elephant on July 29, 2010 at 6:17 PM

I still like Rubio’s chances. He can probably win with only 42-45 per cent of the vote, and unlike Crist he knows exactly where to look for his votes. A Greene victory would free up the democrats to openly support Crist, but that is going to drive some republicans away from you. And I think it makes more sense for Greene to focus on attacking Crist rather than Rubio. Hell the more I think about it I may want Greene to win the primary.

BuzzCrutcher on July 29, 2010 at 6:17 PM

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:04 PM

And anyway, I’m in Ohio — land of Dennis Kucinich, Howard Metzenbaum and true whacko Sherrod Brown, so there you go!

cynccook on July 29, 2010 at 6:19 PM

The AZ law,

no comment!!!

Playing it safe,no guts,no glory!!

canopfor on July 29, 2010 at 6:19 PM

Nothing wrong with Florida. I’m from the land of Nancy Pelosi,Barbara Boxer,Pete Stark, and Lynn Woolsey. I’m not going to cast any stones.

sandee on July 29, 2010 at 6:20 PM

I want Rubio in the Senate! Come one Florida!!!

terryannonline on July 29, 2010 at 6:14 PM

I’ve got confidence in brevard county(my old stomping grounds)!

cmsinaz on July 29, 2010 at 6:23 PM

This is a GOP state. We have GOP supermajorities in the State House and Senate. A majority of the US Reps are GOP. People hates taxes down here. Don’t worry: FL should deliver Rubio a victory.

TimTebowSavesAmerica on July 29, 2010 at 6:23 PM

I really hate watching someone get rewarded for being shameless and slimy. Charlie Christ’s bumper sticker could say “I’m lowlife scum vote for me” and his numbers would rise. I don’t get it.

Zetterson on July 29, 2010 at 6:24 PM

I’ve got confidence in brevard county(my old stomping grounds)!

cmsinaz on July 29, 2010 at 6:23 PM

Good to hear!

terryannonline on July 29, 2010 at 6:25 PM

Mark Levin reacts to Charlie Crist calling Reagan a RINO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXNz9iCwERk

canopfor on July 29, 2010 at 6:28 PM

There will be ebb & flow in the polls until late October as the disappointed and the pissed send a not so subtle message about expectation and betrayal.

Then they’ll break for the GOP.

No worries.

Bruno Strozek on July 29, 2010 at 6:30 PM

I must say I have been impressed with recent interviews I’ve seen with Rubio. He’s a smart cookie that actually answers the questions!!!

terryannonline on July 29, 2010 at 6:31 PM

Crist actually polls unusually well for a Republican among black voters in Florida…

Appropos of nothing whatsoever, has Crist recently switched his tan-in-a-can color from orange to something, uh, duskier? I dunno, maybe it’s just strange lighting in that video.

Fabozz on July 29, 2010 at 6:36 PM

It’s Florida.

Never underestimate the potential for the worst possible outcome.

9 out of 10 f’ed up events since Elian Gonzalez have their origin in the Sunshine State.

Purple Fury on July 29, 2010 at 6:37 PM

Brevard County will vote Rubio – as will the SW Florida counties from Manatee south to Collier.

Heck, most of the 67 counties will vote Rubio.

Rubio may even get a larger than normal share of votes for the GOP from the (generally) nutcase counties of Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade, as Rubio is from that area.

Also, he IS hispanic (yes, playing shamelessly to ethnicity), of which Florida of course has its share. Some will vote for him just because of his last name. Sad that it comes down to that for some, but maybe it will work in our favor this time.

And I see very few Oompa-Loompas running around the Sunshine State, so Orange Glow can’t make or break the race with a clear majority of that voting block.

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:42 PM

Completely wrong AP. Meek is an extremely weak candidate for the general. If he wins the Dem nomination I would expect him to eventually leech down to his absolute base probably sub 10% similar to the Republican candidate in the Lieberman/Lamont race. Greene on the other hand has the will and the cash to really campaign. All the votes he gets will be potential Crist votes. I think you 40/35/25 numbers are about right but Rubio would have the 40%. Greene will take nothing from Rubio as anyone likely to vote for Greene was never considering Rubio to begin with.

Rocks on July 29, 2010 at 6:42 PM

The AZ law,

no comment!!!

Playing it safe,no guts,no glory!!

canopfor on July 29, 2010 at 6:19 PM

Yes… a good example of another politician with the backbone and character essence of a worm.

tru2tx on July 29, 2010 at 6:49 PM

Marybeth on July 29, 2010 at 6:42 PM

orange county has me worried with grayson representing them…

cmsinaz on July 29, 2010 at 6:50 PM

I live in Jacksonville. A few things to consider, Allah:

1. Meek was caught flat-footed, since no one had heard of Jeff Greene until a few weeks ago. I hadn’t seen a single Meek commercial until TODAY! And it was a good one, blasting Greene for (a) being a Republican in CA before moving to FL two years ago; and (b) getting rich off of the real estate crash in FL, which is a sore spot with a LOT of FL voters. Watch the polling numbers move some with Meek’s new (albeit late) campaigning.

2. Rubio is sitting on his cash, since he’s got the GOP nomination wrapped up. He still has speeches and appearances, but his advertising is on hold. Yet he still is within the margin of error (up two is Rasmussen, down three in the other poll). Hasn’t said a word in two months on TV, and still within striking distance.

3. Crist’s money will dry up fast, since there’s no party infrastructure in place. The lack of the party infrastructure will also hurt in GOTV efforts, since there aren’t exactly busloads of “Independent Party” operatives getting people to the polls.

Am I nervous? Yes, of course. Am I in Eeyore mode yet? Nope, not yet. The primary is in about three weeks or so. Things will move a lot after that.

crushliberalism on July 29, 2010 at 7:09 PM

So, do we care if Crist is gay? I had no idea that he was. He hit on a friend of mine at the Hard Rock Cafe the other day.

anniekc on July 29, 2010 at 7:29 PM

Charlie Crist: the gift that keeps on giving…

Khun Joe on July 29, 2010 at 7:30 PM

As a Floridian, I can only tell you that right now the polling is name recognition only…Floridian will not start paying attention until a couple weeks out from the election.

aigle on July 29, 2010 at 7:31 PM

Vote for Alexander Snitker in Florida.

Spathi on July 29, 2010 at 7:38 PM

Florida is a very volitile state for voting. Crist cannot keep the lie-machine going close to the election and he will have to face negative ads from both candidates if he is ahead. These will be effective ads and we all know why following the shameful Crist story.

Conan on July 29, 2010 at 7:42 PM

My RINO logic is that Rubio will win:
Rubio tells intelligent political stories. Crist comes across as an idiot. The type of RINO who was fooled by Obama’s intelligent veneer into voting for Obama will vote for Rubio. Hopefully such RINOs will pull along enough people that Rubio wins.

Disclaimer: While I am a RINO, I wasn’t fooled by Obama for a minute and thus may not be the most reliable indicator of RINO sentiments.

thuja on July 29, 2010 at 7:44 PM

Florida’s unemployment is one of the worst in the country. Why isn’t this sticking to Crist?

Speedwagon82 on July 29, 2010 at 8:01 PM

Exit question: Is it time to worry? Inquiring eeyores want to know.

Not quite yet, but it’s time to stock up on deodorant, cause the nervous sweats might just be around the corner.

Vyce on July 29, 2010 at 8:06 PM

Democrats have campaigned against Crist, they probably have called him every name in the book in the past. Now all of them have to forget everything they believed about him in the last election in order to vote for him this time around.

The Spector and Jeffords defections should teach us not to worry about pols who switch every position in order to win an election. It should also teach us that Democrats want full time socialists not Vladimirs come lately.

What Rubio has to do is claim all of the right of center positions and paint Christ as a flip flopper. Neither should be a hard sell to FLA.

jpmn on July 29, 2010 at 8:13 PM

SIGH!

old people….

rollthedice on July 29, 2010 at 8:15 PM

So, do we care if Crist is gay? I had no idea that he was. He hit on a friend of mine at the Hard Rock Cafe the other day.

anniekc on July 29, 2010 at 7:29 PM

Crist’s orientation is a pretty open secret in Florida, according to several friends down there. He married a beard recently but now that he doesn’t need social cons any more I doubt he’ll make much of an effort to hide it.

BuzzCrutcher on July 29, 2010 at 8:19 PM

I don’t understand Allah’s logic. If Greene is able to motivate Dems to vote for him in the primary, then he can motivate them to vote for him in general. I don’t see why they would suddenly abandon the man they picked. I think pundits are over-analyzing this. I mean, how could a cash-rich candidate underperform a cash-poor candidate? I have faith in the power of money in politics.

year_of_the_dingo on July 29, 2010 at 8:22 PM

Marco was once how many points behind Crist and who left that race? As much as I have distaste for Cornyn and McConnell – once the +S+ hits the fan and we have a settled race, they are not going to let Crist have a victory here. No way.

Marcus on July 29, 2010 at 9:02 PM

…and by that they are going to pour in money.

Marcus on July 29, 2010 at 9:04 PM

Crist was not electable in one arena so he jumped to another. It seems to me and my room full of intelligent ants who are all drinking a Bud-Lite, that Florida residents can see through this “anything for power” move.
Or, they (those polled that support Crist) might be down further south at a Jimmy Buffet concert.

Travis1 on July 29, 2010 at 9:46 PM

Another Floridian respectfully disagreeing. A Greene win in August is a good thing. He’s campaigning as a non-career politician going after the political establishment — it competes directly with Crist’s newfound “independence.” He’s also going to monopolize the Jewish condo bloc that Crist might have been able to wrest from Meek. Finally, he’s going against an establishment Democrat in Meek with strong allies, e.g. Hastings, Wasserman-Schultz and the Clintons. They’ll stay home if Greene wins, as might many of the die-hard Democratic voters when the general rolls around.

Marco’s in good shape.

T.D.D. on July 29, 2010 at 9:47 PM

Face it, AP.

We are awash in a sea of dumbMasses.

Dave R. on July 29, 2010 at 9:50 PM

If Florida votes for Crist, their chickens will come home to roost. Although you really have to wonder who would vote for such a slimy and dishonest worm.

disa on July 29, 2010 at 10:11 PM

Has the slug declared yet which party he will caucus with?

slickwillie2001 on July 29, 2010 at 10:14 PM

Well, if it helps to put it into perspective, this is the state which has given the world Alan Grayson and Debbie Wasserman Schultz…

cynccook on July 29, 2010 at 6:02 PM

A sight to behold: Barack Obama, Alan Grayson, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, & Howard Dean campaigning/fundraising alongside Crist! Who needs SNL anymore?

TN Mom on July 29, 2010 at 10:25 PM

Has the slug declared yet which party he will caucus with?

slickwillie2001 on July 29, 2010 at 10:14 PM

The Orange Tan Caucus. There’s a 10% tax to join. LOL!

TN Mom on July 29, 2010 at 10:27 PM

The Hillbuzz boys claim it’s an open secret in Florida that Crist is a gay cross dresser who frequents the Green Iguana in Tampa as Sweet Charlotte, Belle of the South. I bet lots of Floridians never heard this rumor and would be shocked if, for example, a photograph of Charlie/Charlotte became public. I have no idea if any of this is true or if proof exists, but timing is everything.

Terrie on July 29, 2010 at 10:46 PM

I don’t believe Crist can win, even if the Democrats implode in the primaries. He has very little Republican support so what does he get to do, split the Democrats vote? I would think the fat cat Democrat donors would be careful with their money. I don’t think people will appreciate it if they start throwing money Crist’s way and abandoned the Democrat.

Crist has shown himself to be a typical politician at a time when the “typical politician” is going to have a hard time getting elected. I’m a Republican, I live in Florida, and I will vote for Marco Rubio. I don’t know any Republicans willing to vote for Crist, in fact, many of the Republicans I know, who voted for Crist for Governor regret that vote and were hoping someone would challenge him when he came up for re-election.

bflat879 on July 29, 2010 at 10:56 PM

I am a South Florida, Jewish Republican Woman (a rarity in my parts) and I will not vote for Crist. Every time I see an article on him, his values and policies change. He just makes himself to be like a politician only wanting to find the easy way to continue his career rather than be a man of conviction and maintain his core values.
He just wasted thousands of our tax dollars because he demanded a special legislative session to put the drilling ban in our state Constitution. Why was it a waste? Because we already have it as LAW in Florida. But to pander to the environmentalist, he demands this, all our reps head to the Capitol and the session lasted 1 hour and nothing was done. Good show, Charlie.

LadyGator88 on July 30, 2010 at 12:04 AM

I can’t believe on his FB page under his photo, it says:

Join me in fighting for Less Spending!, Less Taxes!, Less Government!, & More Freedom!

gatorfanatic on July 30, 2010 at 7:06 AM

The idea that the Dems would be discriminating enough to support Meek but not Greene is, I think, fairly silly. I think it’s too early to worry about this, but I understand that’s what AP is paid the big money to do so I’ll let him have at it.

eyedoc on July 30, 2010 at 11:52 AM

(quote)

If Greene wins the nomination, the path to victory for Crist is clear: Woo as many black Democrats as possible, promise to caucus with the Dems if elected in exchange for help from Democratic fundraisers and strategists, then count on a coalition of Dems and centrist Republicans to carry you to a 40/35/25 win over Rubio and Greene. Oh, and in the meantime, don’t say anything about any hot-button subject lest it be used against you; as you’ll see below, that part of the strategy is, quite pathetically, already in full effect.

(end quote)

I really can’t follow this logic. If Greene wins the Dem primary, he’ll have more money than Meek would to spend on the general election, which he would probably spend bashing Crist, who is his main competitor for liberal or centrist voters.

If Crist announced that he would caucus with the Democrats if elected, Rubio would blast him for it, and any remaining Republicans still supporting Crist would shift to Rubio. Rubio would have the GOP base plus maybe 20 or 30% of Independents, probably at least 40% of the entire electorate, leaving Crist and the Democrat to split the rest.

If Greene won the primary, he would have plenty of money to paint himself as the “real Democrat”, with both Rubio and Greene blasting Crist’s flip-flops. The real danger for Rubio is that Greene’s money might squeeze Crist out of the race, or to a small share of the electorate, and Greene could win with 45% or so.

Crist remains viable for now because nobody knows with whom he will caucus, or who his Democrat opponent will be, and moderate voters from both sides might still hold out hope that he will caucus with their side. But this can’t last forever–Crist will soon have a real Democrat opponent, and voters will want to know whose side Crist is on.

Rubio is wise to hoard his money now and keep his powder dry. He is the only real conservative Republican in this race, but he now has three potential opponents, one of whom will lose the Dem primary. Whoever wins the Dem primary will probably attack both Rubio and Crist, which should decrease Crist’s support.

After the Dem primary, Rubio should attack the stronger of his two rivals, either Crist or the winner of the Dem primary, with the goal of keeping them about even with each other, and winning a plurality with the GOP base plus a third of Independent voters.

But in order to attack, Rubio needs to know his “enemy”, which he doesn’t right now. So he’s waiting, building support for himself without attacking anyone, letting his rivals attack each other, until the right moment to “divide and conquer”.

Steve Z on July 30, 2010 at 1:16 PM