Obama hits lowest quarterly approval rating yet in Gallup surveys
posted at 9:30 am on July 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
No one who has watched Barack Obama’s polling closely would be surprised that his latest quarterly average job approval with Gallup has hit its low point of his presidency. They may, however, be surprised by some comparative numbers from other presidencies. Obama’s ratings have declined in every quarter, but he can take some comfort in the company he’s keeping:
President Obama averaged 47.3% job approval during his sixth quarter in office, spanning April 20-July 19 — his lowest quarterly average to date. Americans’ approval of Obama has declined at least slightly in each quarter of his presidency.
The latest quarterly results are based on interviews with more than 45,000 U.S. adults as part of Gallup Daily tracking. During this period, Obama saw a high of 52% approval in his three-day rolling average in mid-May, and several times saw a new low of 44%, including in mid-July. His sixth quarter in office was a period of continuing economic difficulty in the United States and coincided with the beginning of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
No one really expected Obama to stay in the mid-60s, but the ratings have been going in one direction through his entire presidency. The greatest drop came a year ago, between the second and third quarters, when Obama lost over nine points after the ObamaCare debate erupted. Since then, Obama has lost between 1.5 and two points each quarter on his average. If the White House expected a rebound from passage of ObamaCare, they’ve been sorely disappointed.
However, whether this means anything for Obama’s future is debatable. He actually ranks sixth out of the last nine presidents for an 18-month quarterly approval rating. Those who ranked below his 47.3%:
- Bill Clinton, 46.1%
- Ronald Reagan, 44.2%
- Jimmy Carter, 41.8%
Only Carter failed to win re-election of the three. Bill Clinton had the blessing of a three-way race in 1996, thanks to Ross Perot, and only needed 48% of the vote to win a second term. Reagan bounced all the way back himself after staying the course on his economic policies and taking a tough stand on the Cold War.
In fact, a high rating didn’t always help, either. George H. W. Bush had a sixth-quarter rating of 64.8%, and this was before going to war with Iraq, when his ratings soared into the 80s. It didn’t take long for his popularity to plummet, and for him to lose his re-election bid.
The lesson from this is that the sixth quarter rating is probably not meaningful for second-term campaigns. If the experience of Reagan and Clinton are an indication, though, it could be a harbinger of midterm results. We have plenty of other such harbingers at the moment, though, with more direct relation to that question.
Obama has time to rebound, but it’s becoming clear that he will need some major course corrections to do so. Whether he’s capable of that remains to be seen, but at least thus far, it doesn’t appear that he’s even considering them.
Blowback
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O’Carter will fail as well.
Disturb the Universe on July 27, 2010 at 9:34 AM
Clinton and Reagan “rebounded”…Clinton because he moved to the center and followed the conservative agenda…Reagan because he stayed the course of being a conservative.
No one expects Obama to move to the right, maybe shift a little to the center, but he is a leftist…his numbers will continue to drop.
right2bright on July 27, 2010 at 9:35 AM
He will push his socialist agenda no matter what.
Disturb the Universe on July 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
So,he’s Historically on the bottom!!
canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
Bill Clinton was saved by the internet breakthrough and Reagan by his policy. Obama is simply hoping the economic wheel turns and his msm allies spin enough to put him over the top.
rob verdi on July 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
Gee, I can imagine the silence on all fronts with Nancy Reagan back one week from a “vacation” off on another “vacation” with thirty reserved 5-star hotel rooms in Spain, and no press coverage or formal events. Think you’d be hearing more? No, you probably could hear a pin drop because the liberals would be quiet as a bunny about the entire thing. Nothing to be gained election wise from this.
Marcus on July 27, 2010 at 9:37 AM
I bristle when these comparisons are made.
Obama is nothing like Reagan, because Reagan inherited a mess from Jimmah and did the right things to fix it.
Obama is doing exactly the opposite, because he says in his books that his mission is basically to undo the Reagan Revolution.
Generic poll numbers miss the big picture.
Reagan wanted America to prosper.
Obama wants America to fail, so he can rebuild it in the image of Western European Social Democracies.
Polar opposites, and why the comparison will be more inline with Carter than Reagan.
Brian1972 on July 27, 2010 at 9:38 AM
He actually ranks sixth out of the last nine presidents for an 18-month quarterly approval rating.
….
1. Did they use a realistic party sample? (Their recent generic findings are LAUGHABLE).
2. We can’t compare him to any previous president, as the msm has NEVER pushed this level of activism.
Apples and oranges, really.
artist on July 27, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Re-distribution of political capital? If the shoe fits.
Who’d have thought expanding entitlements (by the trillions) would be so unpopular?
Rovin on July 27, 2010 at 9:39 AM
Compared to the other three, Obama is unique insofar as he is black, and that factor alone may account for a cushion in his polling. I’m not the only one to notice that, however, he has major pushback on all his policies–all of them sweeping policy initiatives–a fact that doesn’t match with his personaly approval rating. A lot of information is lost in the approval rating. None of those presidents had two wars on their hands–nor does Obama, GWB still owns these two.
ramble stop now.
ted c on July 27, 2010 at 9:40 AM
History is repeating itself, except FDR had four terms…Please let this fool be a one-termer.
Inanemergencydial on July 27, 2010 at 9:40 AM
Barry can’t tack right. Clinton did so because he wasn’t owned and operated by the hard left as is Barry. Should Barry begin adopting conservative positions regarding taxes and such, the left will not only abandon him in droves, they will spew their venom on him like he was GW Bush.
Paging Orville Redenbacher……
Patrick S on July 27, 2010 at 9:41 AM
Yes, but the media will call it “unexpectedly”.
Rovin on July 27, 2010 at 9:43 AM
I would agree with you on that. The question is why? I think the answer is in the psyche of Obama. For whatever mental demons consume him, he is incapable of accepting blame or correction. His blinders are welded to him and he won’t/can’t see any other path. As I said in another thread, this is the seed of his destruction…and ours.
Extrafishy on July 27, 2010 at 9:47 AM
If Barry doesn’t do a hard right pivot on taxes really, really soon, he is toast and will take a bunch of Dems with him out the door in 2012. The Bush tax cut expiration date is looming and they will have a huge fight over it. Once 1 January 2011 rolls around if the cuts are not extended, people will see a huge increase in witholding. Well those of us who actually have jobs will see a very significant incresae in Fed tax witholdings.
Johnnyreb on July 27, 2010 at 9:47 AM
His approval rating being higher than Reagan’s at this point is a talking point being used (rather pathetically, I might add) by those on the left.
What I’d like to see is where each one started out. I imagine that the erosion of Obama’s approval is “historic.”
CDeb on July 27, 2010 at 9:47 AM
exactly right Ed…dear leader will dance to his tune and no one else
cmsinaz on July 27, 2010 at 9:50 AM
spot on…
cmsinaz on July 27, 2010 at 9:51 AM
Remember that the press savaged Reagan and has whored themselves out to Obama shamelessly in order to prevent his slide in the polls. Without their herculean efforts at fluffing, where would Obama’s poll numbers be?
Extrafishy on July 27, 2010 at 9:52 AM
Extrafishy on July 27, 2010 at 9:47 AM
I quite agree with you about his mental demons. I suspect they all trace back to being abandoned by dear old dad.
Disturb the Universe on July 27, 2010 at 9:52 AM
Without that, Obama would still be community organizing in Chicago.
ddrintn on July 27, 2010 at 9:55 AM
All Obama needs right now is a wag-the-dog scenario…go to war with Iran, taking a hint from the FDR, perhaps, in hopes to get his numbers above 60? His handling of the economy and Obama’s lackluster performance of saving and creating millions and millions of new jobs isn’t working out so well. Nothing like a good war and national mobilization to get the economy in high gear. [Maybe Michelle is going to Spain to scout out new digs for the upcoming exiled President?]
coldwarrior on July 27, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Still seems very high to me.
What it means is that almost all Democrats think favorably of him. He is not losing his base.
albill on July 27, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Actually, it is as bad as we think. O’Carter has these numbers despite 24/7 fawning media coverage. There has been almost no discussion of the disaster of his economic policies. Sure, people are feeling economic pain, but they haven’t fully realized that O’Carter is the reason why. As a campaign gets underway, and those facts are discussed openly, O’Carter will sink even further. This is his rating with no sunlight on him at all; sunlight can only make it slide further.
And, I have predicted for some time now that President Thin Skin will implode during the debates. There’s a world of difference between running on “Bush, Bush, Bush. Hope & Change” and running on trying to explain why every decision you’ve made is the wrong one. He’s going to be on the receiving end of some of that sarcasm and ridicule he’s so famous for, and he isn’t going to like it. He’ll go gaffe-tastic.
Rational Thought on July 27, 2010 at 9:58 AM
As one who came from a broken home, I can attest to the scars that leaves behind and the effect it can have your self-image. That is not an excuse for bad behavior. So many have suffered so much worse and risen above it to do, not only great things, but good things. Obama has risen to a level of “greatness” that embraces no good at all.
Extrafishy on July 27, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Did Reagan have as much republican support as Obama has democrat support or is Obama much more polarizing?
Hopefully his supporters are concentrated enough to limit the damage to our nation.
GardenGnome on July 27, 2010 at 10:01 AM
I find it highly unlikely the One will change course at all. He will continue to do his best to destroy America as we know it in the effort to create the perfect liberal utopia.
God Help Us
jackal40 on July 27, 2010 at 10:02 AM
The polls are racist. Minorities are on cell phones and not in the phone book.
seven on July 27, 2010 at 10:02 AM
As polarized as this country is, I don’t think he’s ever going to lose his moonbat sliver. I don’t think they’re going to walk through fire for him, though.
ddrintn on July 27, 2010 at 10:02 AM
Every President from #43 and lower, loved this Country and promoted American exceptionalism.
Obama and his wifey have made it all to clear that this must change.
Electrongod on July 27, 2010 at 10:03 AM
with this msm, i don’t know if they ever will…who is going to explain the facts? the msm will trash those who do and dear leader will go with blame gop meme…
hope you are right…
cmsinaz on July 27, 2010 at 10:03 AM
It’s beyond me how they can be that high.
ncborn on July 27, 2010 at 10:04 AM
Just exactly, what are they doing right now?
Obama’s entire agenda is historically toxic. Some tyrants of America past pushed similar agendas and their sycophants, who only view politics as a horse race between parties, cheered them on.
Inanemergencydial on July 27, 2010 at 10:09 AM
coldwarrior on July 27, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Haven’t seen you around for a while my friend. Hope all is well with you and yours.
Keemo on July 27, 2010 at 10:11 AM
Technically you’re wrong on that one, Ed, since Carter is enjoying his second term through Barack O’Carter.
VibrioCocci on July 27, 2010 at 10:12 AM
Yikes, another Gallup poll getting headlined here at HA…
Keemo on July 27, 2010 at 10:13 AM
Except for every last one of his glassy-eyed followers, all of whom believe the man is infallible.
Bishop on July 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM
canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 9:36 AM
=======================
Yes, but the media will call it “unexpectedly”.
Rovin on July 27, 2010 at 9:43 AM
Rovin: True Dat:)
canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM
This is nothing short of torture for his “once merry” band of thieves. Every poll shows him melting like a snowman in April, with more warm weather on the way.
Can’t wait to see how the summer vacations play out in the polls come Sept. – just in time for Nov.!
NumberTwo on July 27, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Technically you’re wrong on that one, Ed, since Carter is enjoying his second term through Barack O’Carter.
VibrioCocci on July 27, 2010 at 10:12 AM
VibrioCocci: Ouch, ‘Tingles’ calling Obama Carter,less than
a day ago!!!
canopfor on July 27, 2010 at 10:18 AM
This is a bit more significant than you think Ed.
First off, these aren’t LV #s, so they’re skewed Dem relative to how the vote will actually come out. In other words, if, say, Reagan was polling at these numbers, he’d be a lot more comfortable.
Second, Clinton was only re-elected because of Ross Perot and the start of the long Internet tech boom. The Tea Party is too smart to let Obama win with a plurality by splitting the vote with their own 3P candidate, and the Internet can only be invented once.
TallDave on July 27, 2010 at 10:27 AM
Yes, indeed. A very strange guy with a lot of problems. Unfortunately, millions of Americans are paying the price for his weirdness.
At this point I would be thrilled to deal with Biden if BO resigned. Biden is thick as pig$hiite, and dumb as a rock, but he isn’t as creepy as BHO.
Cody1991 on July 27, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Rahm knows the triangulation strategy, and loves power enough to actually push Obama to go through with it, even if it means actually having to tick off his far left base by signing stuff in 2011-12 put up by Republicans. But the others in the White House like Axelrod believe the magnificence of both The One and in their own ability to craft and control the narrative will allow them simply to say their triangulating, post-midterm election, but to not actually do one damn thing as far as enacting legislation or changing rules by executive order to prove they’ve learned their lesson and are moving to the center.
And that’s the side that (at least initially) will win out next year. Obama will put on a Potemkin Villiage of moderation to try and fool swing voters, and the big media outlets will say how he’s moderating while complaining the conservatives only want to allow a far-right agenda, and that’s why nothing’s getting passed. Which is also why between now and November, the Republicans are going to have to draft and heavily promote a specific agenda if they gain control of the House and/or Senate, because if they don’t define themselves now, the big media and the Democrats will do it for them after the election.
jon1979 on July 27, 2010 at 10:41 AM
The question is who still approves of this bass turd?
jbh45 on July 27, 2010 at 10:49 AM
I beg to differ with you here, Ed. The MSM was absolutely hammering us for the first six months that Obama was going to be SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO popular that there’d be a groundswell of popular support for the repeal of the 22d Ammendment.
I doubt it. I hope so, for the country’s sake, that he pulls a Clinton and abandons all the leftist ideas, but I really doubt he is capable of it. He has said he’d rather be a one-termer than compromise his way into a second term. Add to that the fact that he’s a hard-core leftist idealogue and really dumb as a box of rocks, and I don’t see him adjusting after the massacare that’s bound to happen come November.
crazy_legs on July 27, 2010 at 10:51 AM
The media effect is worth 20%
faraway on July 27, 2010 at 10:51 AM
I don’t know who these pollsters keep asking but his numbers shouldn’t even be as high as they are.
scalleywag on July 27, 2010 at 10:58 AM
What is with you so called analysts? LOL Bill Clinton made a sharp right hand turn and went to the center right. Ronald Reagan stayed firmly on the right.
Jimmy Carter like BO stays on the left. The part of the political spectrum that represents only about one third of the American electorate. He has no way to get to the right.
Clinton was a Southern Democrat so it was easy for him to give the allusion that he was a conservative. BO cannot make it standing on the left bank of the American population.
Jdripper on July 27, 2010 at 10:59 AM
Just more proof that the only real poll is the one where people vote.
Lonetown on July 27, 2010 at 11:06 AM
During his short and sheltered life so far, Obama seems to have always been the object of adulation in his narrow sphere of influence (Hawaii, the universities, Chicago), that he is convinced of his own greatness without having been exposed to the ideas of mainstream America. What, pray tell, was the purpose of making a campaign speech in Germany, where no one can vote for him? To Obama, anyone who disagrees with him is either stupid or racist or both.
His response to criticism: “they are bitter, clinging to their guns and religion, intolerance toward people like me”.
“The police of Cambridge acted stupidly”. His own grandmother “behaved like a typical white person”.
His response to Republicans: “I won.” To McCain in 2010: “The election is over”. To Democrats: “I have a gift.” “The difference between now and 1994 is that you have me.”
He has never really had to manage money. Despite thinking of himself as “oppressed” as a black orphan raised by a white mother in the paradise of Hawaii, he was always sent to expensive schools, he squandered the budget of the Annenberg Challenge for no results, doled out Illinois State money to his slumlord buddies–always spending OTHER PEOPLE’s money, never his own, and he is now spending the entire country into oblivion, never thinking that the bill might come due some day.
If Republicans take a majority of House seats, and win enough Senate seats to sustain serious filibusters indefinitely, will Obama tack to the center, as Clinton did? Clinton only tacked to the center after Republicans in Congress pushed him to the brink of a government shutdown in 1995. But Clinton, for all his moral failings, did NOT live a charmed, sheltered childhood, but had to deal with poverty and his alcoholic father, and also had to shift politically after he lost an election for Governor.
Obama has never faced failure in his life, and may not know how to deal with it. A Republican-controlled House may force another government shutdown, but would Obama be so convinced of his own greatness that he will blame Bush, the Republicans, and the VOTERS for their “stupidity” and veto everything? If Republicans have a solid plan of their own for revitalizing the economy, they could easily paint Obama as “obstructionist”, seeking to take the Senate and the White House in 2012, but Obama could still claim that “he won” in 2008, and block everything, which he probably will.
In such a scenario, with the nation on its knees, we may have to depend on a few Senate Democrats, fearing for their political lives, turning against Egobama in order to save the country.
Fasten your seat belts! Even if Republicans do take the House this November, it’s gonna get ugly.
Steve Z on July 27, 2010 at 11:07 AM
I’m sorry I just cannot believe the polling numbers. Nobody I know likes this guy. And that includes a fairly wide swath of society and geography. Many are conservatives, but many are lifelong Democrats and liberals (not far left). Austin, St Louis, New Jersey, Chicago, Iowa, NC, you name it – nobody I speak to likes him. And there isn’t just one reason, everyone has several reasons for disliking him. I’m an actuary, but I cannot believe these polls are correct. There must be a bias somewhere in the selection or presentation. I’d love to see a full 50 state poll which is Electoral College weighted.
Jed_Eckert on July 27, 2010 at 11:31 AM
Barry is going to be a one-term FAILED president.
GarandFan on July 27, 2010 at 11:35 AM
Looks like we’re not going to be Communist afterall. Impeachment starts on Jan. 21, spearheaded by one of my favorite congressmen, Darrell Issa……..
adamsmith on July 27, 2010 at 11:39 AM
I agree. I think Giggles will be at his most dangerous when his back is against the wall.
crazy_legs on July 27, 2010 at 11:41 AM
I have gone to HuffPo on occasion to see their take on things like the oil spill etc. and what amazes me about their comments is they think Obama is too conservative! They think he is not a true progressive, but a neo-con in disguise. Unbelievable.
txmomof6 on July 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Ex-actly. What did Carter do, though? I believe that he didn’t loose Congress in the mid-terms and kept on driving his liberal, asinine agenda, but I could be wrong.
I also believe that Obama will take a different course than Clinton, but what course? Will he move harder left and try to blame all of America’s ills on a Republican Congress? Will he attempt to moderate and blame all of America’s ills on a Republican Congress? Only time will tell [this is gonna be great!].
29Victor on July 27, 2010 at 11:47 AM
Who are these 47.3% of Americans? Has special education ballooned to these numbers? I had no idea.
Mojave Mark on July 27, 2010 at 11:49 AM
My poll says he is detested. My small village of 230 folks is 99% Lib and vote Dim straight line. They went for Obumba almost unanimously. Now, all I hear is derision of him because of Obama Care and the economy. They shake their head and admit I was right.
Dingbat63 on July 27, 2010 at 11:51 AM
That would be … “Read my lips: no new taxes.”
garry on July 27, 2010 at 11:52 AM
Just a few more hours till Barry the DOTUS will have his Progressive RINO buddy McCain back in the Senate……the REAL
McCain that is.
Help is on the way Barry hang on.
PappyD61 on July 27, 2010 at 11:56 AM
Any other President – even a Democrat – would have been not just impeached but tried, convicted and in prison quite some time ago.
But with Obama, it’s just another Tuesday – and another little sag in the polls.
logis on July 27, 2010 at 12:33 PM
Resignation is only conceivable for those who can admit to their flaws and frailties and face imminent impeachment. Obama will never resign. I also believe he will never be impeached – no Democrat will – because of Clinton. If Biden became President under whatever circumstance, he would be too stupid and cowardly to replace Obama’s team with his own. That would be racist and not in keeping with the messiah’s wishes. He might want to govern differently, but he wouldn’t have the stones to do it. In the event of Obama’s death I don’t even think Michelle would voluntarily move out of the White House. She would want to stay on to manage his legacy of national destruction.
Extrafishy on July 27, 2010 at 12:35 PM
Ala Muhammad Ali, Obama sits in the oval office. Fingers in ears, saying over, and over….I am the greatest president of all time.
Because afterall….if Obama says it’s so…it is so. *sigh*
capejasmine on July 27, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Biden serves our side well. He is essentially powerless, and serves as an icon of the democratics’ stupidity. He does deflect some of the jokes that should be told about the Bamster, but I’m not convinced that they will ever tell jokes about Bammie. I’m waiting for the links between Leno and Letterman joke writers and the democratics to be uncovered.
slickwillie2001 on July 27, 2010 at 2:24 PM
Fixed it.
Slowburn on July 27, 2010 at 2:57 PM
A basic fact about approval ratings and “who-would-you-vote-for” polls: people tend to answer them out of ideals unless an election is iminent. As months draw down to weeks and weeks draw down to days, votors (if not others) get more serious and their declarations are more in line with what they will do when the actual choice must be made.
njcommuter on July 27, 2010 at 4:12 PM
Of course he can and will make the necessary “course correction”.That has been his plan all along.Do nothing and let the Dems hang themselves,let the Reps fix things,do nothing and take credit for the fix.Not hard to figure out,if you remember Clenis.
DDT on July 27, 2010 at 6:51 PM